Lakers vs. Celtics: Match-ups

[slamtheking]

the turning point won't be based on who's guarding who but which team will make the least amount of stupid mistakes.  The C's biggest struggles have come from careless ballhandling and passes leading to turnovers, lack of defensive effort and half-hearted rebounding.  When they take care of the ball, make smart passes, take smart shots and play consistent defense, they're in every game and usually with a comfortable lead. 

Needless to say the C's bench has to make a contribution in the series.  Sam or House has to play well and Davis and Powe have to crash the boards.  I think Posey and PJ will produce but the rest are a question mark right now.  Also, Ray has to be 'on' in this series or the C's will struggle terribly.

[gchasse]

This is an excellent thread.

As much as the sexy thing is to look at the flash of the Lakers offense, it is usually defense that wins championships.  The Lakers are suspect there, and Gasol has not helped that any as he is not known for his defense, although he makes it much better for the Lakers on offense.

To me, the Celts should just play Kobe straight up and work on shutting down everyone else, which I believe is doable.  Rondo would be well advised to stay with whoever he is on and not float or drift away.  I hope he does that.

This should be a great series.  I think the Celtics will win because they play better defense.  The Lakers were not the team I feared the most coming out of the West, the Hornets were, and San Antonio second.

[cuckroller]

Well, disconsolately from my Laker viewpoint.  They are going to defend Pierce with the player that I think is absolutely the worst choice possible.  Radmanovic!  Pierce should hit for 50 every game...  In my estimation, this airhead would have an impossible task defending against a non-moving wet spaghetto!

[mpapic]

Hey guys,

Just wanted to post a match-up analysis from the perspective of the Laker fans (first posted at http://lakers.topbuzz.com/). If you want to answer the thread, register on http://lakers.topbuzz.com/ and join the discussion there as well.

Cheers,

P

* * * * * *

Ok, so here is my own (for what it is worth) assessment of the matchups for this series... I am not going to go position by position per se, just because defensive matchups may not align perfectly.

PF/C matchups (Odom/Gasol vs. KG/Perkins) - "edge": CELTICS

Kevin Garnett is really playing very well so far in these playoffs. He is BY FAR the most effective of the four players in this discussion. He is shooting 52% from the floor and is averaging 21.1ppg to go along with 10rpg. A lot of people expect Gasol to be able to defend him because he did such a great job with Duncan, but Duncan and KG are not the same player. First of all, KG has a much better range than Duncan and his jumper has definitely been ON these playoffs (he shot so well against the Pistons). Also, unlike Duncan, KG does not spin or drive INTO his opponents to score, he spins AWAY. This may be a problem for Gasol because he is not mobile enough to close on KG’s fade away. Also, KG is much better at ball handling than Duncan and if Gasol is late to cover him he can exploit Gasol’s lack of mobility and drive on the Lakers. Duncan is not going to fake a jumper and drive from just inside the three (at least not without the help of the refs not calling traveling on him Wink) but KG can perform that move very easily. Therefore, it may not be a foregone conclusion that Gasol takes KG. We may need to have Odom on him in order to have a better close out speed. We therefore may have to live with KG taking Odom inside and hope that we can double team him down low and rotate quickly enough to Pierce and Allen at the three (did it well enough against the Spurs who are the best at rotating to the open 3 point shooter, so we should be ok with that strategy). Odom won't need help with KG on the perimeter because he has good lateral speed and great length to bother KG on drives.

Whoever guards Perkins, either Odom or Gasol, will essentially have to make sure that they do not roam too much on help defense. If Gasol is on Perkins this will be particularly difficult because Gasol does want to be active as a help defender. Perkins lives on the offensive boards and so we need to make sure that if Gasol does go out to bloc a drive/shot, someone else (preferably our 3 like Radmanovic or Walton) rotates down to the paint and boxes out Perkins.

As defenders the Celtics have an advantage in that KG can take both Odom and Gasol easily. He will bother Odom because he is fast enough to stop his drives. He will bother Gasol because Gasol is a finesse player who doesn't bang much. It would be great to let Odom handle the ball a lot because that would draw KG out of the paint, where he is hopefully too far out to bother Kobe on help defense. Perkins guarding Gasol does not bother me much because Gasol can face up on him. Gasol will have to be very active with his passing game (he was leading the Lakers in assists against the Spurs so I see that continuing).

SF matchup (Pierce vs. Radmanovic/Walton, aka Radmanolton) – “edge”: CELTICS

While the Celtics get the edge here, it is not by a lot. Pierce is obviously a lot better than the Laker two-headed (cookie) monster, but he is turnover prone (3 a game) and actually does not score all that much more than Radmanolton (my new name for our two sf). Pierce scores 19ppg with 5rpg at 38mpg, while Radmanolton averages 42.8mpg 15.6ppg with 6.7rpg. I can live with those numbers. Radmanolton also has only 2 turnovers per game and shoots a better percentage (around 46% compared to Pierce’s 44%).

The key is going to be to “contain” Pierce and not let him improve any of those numbers. Most importantly, we need to keep him off the foul line. This will be the greatest challenge since he is MUCH faster than Radmanolton. That said, Radmanolton had a great series against Carmelo and we just need to remember how we stopped him. Look also for Trevor Ariza to get a crack at Pierce.

If Pierce takes on Kobe, that may slow him down on offense as well. Pierce did an amazing job on LeBron and Prince, but Kobe is faster off the dribble than LeBron and a better jump shooter, forcing Pierce to stick close to him which will be tough. Kobe is also much more aggressive on the offensive end than both LeBron and Prince. Tough matchup for Pierce, but the refs should let him play Kobe tight...

Guards matchup (Kobe/Fisher/Vujacic vs. Allen/Rondo/Casell) – “edge”: LAKERS

Ok so nobody can guard Kobe. I will be interested to see if they put Posey on him, although I think it will be difficult for him to keep up with Kobe. Same goes with Pierce on Kobe, although we should give Pierce A LOT of props for how he has taken LeBron and Prince out of their games by playing STELLAR defense. I hope that the Celtics go with Posey or Allen, just because I think Kobe can get the calls on Posey and take Allen on the low bloc (the same way he played against Ronny Brewer who is about the same size and dimension as Allen). Pierce could present a challenge just because Kobe is not going to get the calls on him (see above).

A much more interesting discussion is how the Lakers chose to defend the Celtics. I am a BIG BIG FAN of not having Kobe guard Allen. Kobe should be reserved for Pierce if Pierce goes off (game 7 against Cleveland was an amazing performance) and we should otherwise play him on Rondo. Rondo has no jump shot, he barely takes 1 three pointer a game (shoots under 30% for the 3) and has a 41% fg average overall. Rondo is faster than either Fisher, Sasha or Kobe so we might as well just stick Kobe on him since he is the tallest and can bother his drives and jumpers best. By sticking Kobe on Rondo we can have him roam around as a great help defender.

I am also a big big fan of having Fisher and Sasha chase Ray Allen around. My point (elaborated in other posts as well) is basically that Allen is going to run his defender into a lot of screens. This is exhausting. If Allen is having an off game and Kobe is guarding him, that basically means that Kobe expanded WAY too much energy guarding someone who has done nothing (so far Allen is shooting 40% and averaging 14ppg). So unless Allen suddenly develops a killer post-up game, I think we should put Fisher on him to start and then rotate Sasha and even Farmar as the game develops (although Farmar would be too short to cover Allen on quick catch and shoot possession).

By the way, whoever is guarding Rondo has to make sure that they keep him off the offensive glass. He is amazingly long and crashes the boards well. Another reason why Kobe should take him.

COACHING: “edge”: LAKERS

Uh duh….

But really we need PJ to get the defensive matchups right and get his bench enough confidence to start the series well on the road. We know that Doc is going to mess up no matter what and the Lakers should be able to steal at least one game somewhere in the series because of it.

BENCH: “edge”: LAKERS

This is obvious… BUT, don’t be too overconfident. The Lakers have so far started every series at home which has allowed the bench players to play well early in the series and get confidence. Now we are starting on the road and it remains to be seen if the Laker young bench can make an impact immediately or whether its slow start in Beantown will result in poor play throughout the series.

The keys on our bench are going to be Farmar, Ariza and Ronny. Sasha and Walton are not really bench bench players. Walton is the “olton” in “Radmanolton” and Sasha plays more minutes than anyone not starting. So, Ronny is going to be key for those 10 or so minutes (maybe even more), especially if offensive boards start to hurt us. We also need him to put some Celtics on the floor like he did in Salt Lake. Just so they don’t start thinking we are soft (because we are). Farmar can’t have another Utah Jazz-like series, especially since he is going up against Rondo, who is really no better than Farmar. Finally Ariza may be needed to give Pierce a different look. If Radmanolton struggle against Pierce, I would rather put Ariza on him than waste Kobe’s energy.

The Celtics bench is atrocious mainly because Doc is a horrible coach. Sam Cassell is absolutely useless. We should make sure to guard him close on his first 2-3 jumpers, once he misses on those he should continue to shoot his 32% from the floor and we can leave him wide open. Leon Powe has thankfully for the Lakers been relegated to Doc’s doghouse. Don’t forget about this guy… he averaged 8ppg and 4rpg during the regular season, which is more than any of our back-up forwards can say, and could give us even more problems than Perkins on the offensive glass. So hopefully Doc continues to play PJ Brown instead of Big Baby and Powe.

The one “wild card” here is going to be James Posey. He is a VERY good player with championship experience. Is he going to guard Kobe? Maybe… Either way, he can be a problem for us if he gets hot or if the refs allow him to play Kobe with the same liberty they gave Bowen.

CONCLUSION: we are in for a series

This is going to be tough… I am not overconfident at all. The Lakers have an advantage over a couple of factors (such as the bench and coaching) but these may be negated by the Celtics home court advantage. KG is playing extremely well and we need to come out and counter his energy with strong front court play.

Bottom line is that the Celtics are a strong defensive team and they will play Kobe similar to how the Pistons played him in 2004. We need to space them with Radmanolton, Fisher and Sasha and hope that Gasol makes the right decisions down low.

Finally, don’t expect to get any calls from the refs. The NBA is going to try to milk this series for all there is (so 7 games is a real possibility) and both teams have their share of superstars who are going to get the calls (in fact, the Celtics may have more with KG and Pierce vs. really only Kobe…). This is a veteran Celtics team that is focused and motivated.

P

If you guys want to comment on this post in the Laker forum, check it out here (you'll need to register, but that will take no time):

http://lakers.topbuzz.com/PNphpBB2-viewtopic-t-14835.html

[Brendan]

The reason I like our match up with LAL is we can play our best 8 or 9 players. Right now I think our best 9 are the starters plus Posey, House, Powe, and Brown. LAL doesn't have the defenders to prevent House + 1 of the wings from getting the ball up reasonably fast. They don't have the size to keep Powe out of the game.

If Kobe is on Rondo - then Rondo should keep the ball in his hands, and Ray Allen and Pierce should screen for each other. This will result in mismatches including Ray Allen against the bigger slower SF's from LAL, and Pierce against the LAL PG. This should be offensive magic, put Garnett in a nice shooting position pulling Odom out of the play, and have Perk down low. If Pau cheats to help, dunk you very much. If Odom, swish from KG, if Kobe is helping to early, Rondo goes to the rim. Otherwise Pierce can post the PG, or Ray Allen can shoot or drive on the SF. Run this set effectively, and then Kobe can't start off on Rondo.

Additionally I think all of our studs are feeling good on offense now. When this happens our offense is great, when they are slumping, our offense is merely good.

I've always felt Jackson was an over rated coach, and that the triangle was a miserable offensive system that relied on an all world wing to make it work. Unfortunately he has Kobe. However the upside is Pau and Odom are no where near the player Pippen was, and he has nothing close to Rodman on defense.

Keys to the series:

1. Make Kobe work hard and be less efficient to get his points.
2. Find and take advantage of the mismatches on offense.
3. Bench energy and effective utilization.
4. REBOUND - against SA LAL's threesome seemed to be all over the offensive glass.

[Green matters]

He is shooting 52% from the floor and is averaging 21.1ppg to go along with 10rpg. A lot of people expect Gasol to be able to defend him because he did such a great job with Duncan,

What!? Gasol did nothing. Duncan killed him besides 1 game he had 12pts which had little to do with Gasol.

I am feeling real sorry for Odom and Gasol right now they're too soft for us.

[Analyst]

Why the Celtics will win: Their size upfront will give the Lakers fits.

Why the Lakers will lose: They have built a team perfect for the Western Conference, guard heavy. Their lack of interior scoring will give the Celtics D plenty of opportunities to limit Kobe similar to how they limited Lebron. All year long the C's have found a way to make good teams look bad. This series shouldn't be any different.We all know how well the C's played against the Western Confernece this year including sweeping the season series aginst both LA and San Antonio.

The Lakers with Gasol are 1-1 against the Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, and Hawks. Oh yah, both games were against Atlanta. Bottom line is the C's will only go as far as their front court (and the refs) will allow them.

[Edgar]

Why the Celtics will win: Their size upfront will give the Lakers fits.

Why the Lakers will lose: They have built a team perfect for the Western Conference, guard heavy. Their lack of interior scoring will give the Celtics D plenty of opportunities to limit Kobe similar to how they limited Lebron. All year long the C's have found a way to make good teams look bad. This series shouldn't be any different.We all know how well the C's played against the Western Confernece this year including sweeping the season series aginst both LA and San Antonio.

The Lakers with Gasol are 1-1 against the Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, and Hawks. Oh yah, both games were against Atlanta. Bottom line is the C's will only go as far as their front court (and the refs) will allow them.

never consider a Cs a team with "size"


U mean the Lakers will only go as far as.....

[Analyst]

The C's may not play big but they dominate teams that aren't big. They outrebound most teams, block shots, and force turnevers better against teams without a legit center. Size in the middle is the only thing that gives the C's trouble. - ie: Orlando, Washington, Cleveland. Gasol is not a legit center. He's a PF or even an SF filling the hole this year. Perkins should be able to handle him on D. How much offence Perkins get will depend on how the Lakers defend PP and KG.If LA helps against either one of them it will give Perkins the opportunity for double-doubles every night. That would he huge!

Garnett plays small on offence but he plays Big on D. He can neutralize most forwards in this league.

Bottom line is that a focused Celtics team should be able to win in 5. LA is over-rated. 

[youcanthandlethetruth113]

The first match-up that concerns me is Odom vs. Garnett. 

Offensively, Odom's strengths are his ball-handling and passing.  He isn't as skilled shooting the ball.  I anticipate KG will be able to back off him and dare him to shoot the mid-range jumper, a low-percentage shot for Odom.  This also means KG can clog the paint. 

McDyess and Ben Wallace were too slow of foot to take KG off the dribble.  But, Josh Smith seemed to have some success in the 1st round.  I think Odom is closer to a Josh Smith type PF, so what does that mean for the Celtics? 

I'm not concerned about the Odom/KG matchup at all.

Odom will bite on all of KG's pump fakes and KG will take Lamar so off his game that it will be a trickle down effect on the rest of the team (sans Kobe of course).

[D Dub]

The main advantage for the Celts that could offset the many the Lakers have is Rebounding.  We should own the glass with Perk, KG, & Powe.  Seriously, none of thier front court guys should have a 10 reb night all series.

If we can indeed control the glass, we then control the pace.  In a slow down game, their role players won't get hot, forcing Kobe to try and do it all.  This is how we can win this series.

[jaketwice]

And against the Lakers, Celtics fans will find that out very quickly.  Kobe is surrounded by 3pt shooters:  Radmanovic, Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic, and to some degree even Walton.  Who is going to help Perkins when Gasol faces him up 15 ft from the basket and takes him to the hole?  This isn't Al Horford with his limited offensive repetoire.  This isn't the slow-footed Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  This isn't an old Rasheed Wallace.  This is Pau F'n Gasol!  Radmanovic will occupy a corner on the strong side.  Kobe will be at the top of the circle.  And Fisher will be about halfway between Kobe and Radmanovic.  There will be no help for Perkins.  That's the beauty of the Triangle.    

Rondo has faster hands than you realize coming over to help from the strong side; and Garnett is faster coming from the weak side than you realize.

More's the point, Perkins really is an excellent defensive player. He probably won't find work as a neuro-surgeon when his career is over, but he plays solid defense, and never takes a play off.

And what happens when Gasol misses (something we have seen happen in the playoffs)?  He's not out rebounding Perk. Perk outweighs him by 35 lbs. 

Don't tell me Odom is beating KG to the spot for the board, either.

[Hrvoje]

I don't know update on Tony's injury. But if he is healthy, they (coaches) must try putting him to guard Kobe. Of course, current rotation is functioning great now, and coaches must be careful not to hurt chemistry, BUT I think he must get minutes, because; Tony has played great defense on him in the past. It is blessing to have kind of player that can play man defense so good on such great players as is Bryant (he can't be stopped completely). You just need to use him in the  right time and in the right place. Posey is great, but he is too slow for Bryant. Remember this season game @ LA; Tony played 42 minutes and kept Koby with 6-25 fgm-a. It is worth of try. All IMO of course.

[expobear]

Just a FYI about Kobe being NBA All Defensive First Team; he deserves that about as much as Michael Jordan did late in his career when Pippen and Harper got all the tough defensive assignments and he casually guarded the worst player on the floor. 

Posey is a much better defender than Kobe.


/quote]


If Kobe puts his mind to it, he can be the best defender in the league, bar none. Posey is not a much better defender than Kobe.

[chibi]

And against the Lakers, Celtics fans will find that out very quickly.  Kobe is surrounded by 3pt shooters:  Radmanovic, Fisher, Farmar, Vujacic, and to some degree even Walton.  Who is going to help Perkins when Gasol faces him up 15 ft from the basket and takes him to the hole?  This isn't Al Horford with his limited offensive repetoire.  This isn't the slow-footed Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  This isn't an old Rasheed Wallace.  This is Pau F'n Gasol!  Radmanovic will occupy a corner on the strong side.  Kobe will be at the top of the circle.  And Fisher will be about halfway between Kobe and Radmanovic.  There will be no help for Perkins.  That's the beauty of the Triangle.    

Rondo has faster hands than you realize coming over to help from the strong side; and Garnett is faster coming from the weak side than you realize.

More's the point, Perkins really is an excellent defensive player. He probably won't find work as a neuro-surgeon when his career is over, but he plays solid defense, and never takes a play off.

And what happens when Gasol misses (something we have seen happen in the playoffs)?  He's not out rebounding Perk. Perk outweighs him by 35 lbs. 

Don't tell me Odom is beating KG to the spot for the board, either.

It is impossible to discuss the Gasol-Perkins match-up when a lot of Celtics fans imagine him to be Moses Malone 3000.  Gasol is shooting 53% in these playoffs while being guarded by the likes of Marcus Camby, Mehmet Okur, and Tim Duncan.  Are you people assuming Perkins is a better defender and rebounder than Duncan or Camby?  Maybe you've been intoxicated by Perkins play of late, but it is time to wake up and smell the coffee:  If Gasol can be effective against those 3, there is no reason he won't be effective against Kendrick Perkins.  Get real!

You stated Perkins is an excellent defender.  That is rubbish.  Rubbish!  Marcus Camby is an excellent defender.  Tim Duncan?  Excellent defender.  Kendrick Perkins?  Sorry.  While I do not doubt he plays with passion and intensity, that isn't enough.  If that were the case, I'd be all be warning you of Ronny Turiaf.  Perkins is not synonymous with excellent defense.  Sorry.  And Gasol tallied more offensive rebounds against Duncan, so he is not chopped liver in that regard.     

And Gasol doesn't just have to rely on his shot, anyway.  The Lakers are capable of slicing the Celtics up Utah-style, with cutting and movement, and you guys know what Utah did to you this year.  Gasol can pass and catch the ball, and so can every other Laker out there.  So Rondo will have to think twice about helping Perkins, because Fisher is a deadly 3pt shooter in these playoffs(56%).   

Now, Garnett is the greatest help defender I've ever seen, but if he and Perkins are preoccupied with Gasol, that leaves Odom(10 REB avg) free to clean the glass.  Additionally, Odom isn't inexperienced like Josh Smith, an offensive non-factor like Ben Wallace, or slow and perimeter-oriented like Antonio McDyess.  Garnett will have to work harder to guard a fast, long, 6'10" combo-forward  that can and will cut to the basket in anticipation of a nifty pass from Gasol, one of the NBA's best passing centers.  And while Garnett is head and shoulders more valuable than Lamar Odom, you have to agree that Odom is superior to the 3 PFs Garnett has faced in these playoffs.

So admit it, guys.  Your frontline may not be as dominating as you think it is.  I'm not really even afraid of Paul Pierce; Fisher can risk leaving Rondo and double-team Pierce on the perimeter, forcing the ball out of his hands.  It's not like leaving Rondo is a huge gamble, right?