2024 Draft

[Moranis]

They need a real minor league and at least 1 more round, maybe 2. 

[liam]

They need a real minor league and at least 1 more round, maybe 2.

Agreed. The players are coming way too raw to play any kind of role in the NBA. It's why I like older guys that have worked on their skills coming in: Bane, Pritchard, Hauser... were all guys I wanted us to pick... Upside for starters but developed skills for role players. Sometimes you get lucky and get both.

[Celtics2021]

I'm betting that Brad will just trade down to save money

If it helps us extend Derrick White with even a marginal amount of savings, I’m all for it.

[mef730]

Boston had the best record in the NBA by seven games with a 64-18 record so they will hold the No. 30 overall draft pick in the first round in June. Brad Stevens has yet to make a first-round selection during his tenure as team president of basketball operations over the past three years so it will be interesting to see whether that trend will continue in 2024.

The one pick that was impacted during Monday’s tiebreaker was a second-round selection that Boston had previously acquired via the Dallas Mavericks (through Sacramento). Boston picked up the extra pick on draft night in 2023 for trading down in the second round. The Knicks and Mavericks finished tied with their regular season records and the Mavericks won the tiebreaker to finish ahead of New York in the first round at No. 24.

The NBA flips-flops the draft order of ties in the second round so Boston’s draft pick (via Dallas) in the second round will drop one slot lower. However, the team does get bumped up to No. 54 overall since the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 48) had to forfeit their second-round pick as a penalty for free agency tampering.

Boston also sent out their own second-round pick (No. 58) previously as part of compensation to the Hornets to create a TPE in the Gordon Hayward sign-and-trade in 2020. Boston also traded away what ended up being the No. 41 overall pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for young guard Jaden Springer.

The next key night for the NBA Draft will during the May 12 lottery, which will officially set the draft order for the top 14 teams. From there, the 2024 NBA Draft will be held on June 26th in what will be a two-night event for the first time with the second round being held on night two.

So, #30 and #54.

I still can't get over the fact they're trying to stretch this thing over two days now.

They literally picked the worst year to do it lol. I’m not even sure I’m watching round one this year.

Tankathon has us taking Ulrich Chomche and I'm going to watch, simply because that's such a great name.

[tonydelk]

They need a real minor league and at least 1 more round, maybe 2.

I'd love a 4 round draft with teams able to pick guys for their g league roster.  If they don't have the room they can just pass on the pick.  Increase the G League Roster size to 13-15 as well.  If the drafted player wants to play overseas versus the g league they can and the team keeps their rights like a 2nd round pick. 

[tonydelk]

I'm betting that Brad will just trade down to save money

If it helps us extend Derrick White with even a marginal amount of savings, I’m all for it.

I'd be ok if they traded the pick for a protected 1st next year.  But IMO they need to start drafting cheap talent to develop.  These 2nd rounders rarely make it.

[CFAN38]

They need a real minor league and at least 1 more round, maybe 2.

Agreed. The players are coming way too raw to play any kind of role in the NBA. It's why I like older guys that have worked on their skills coming in: Bane, Pritchard, Hauser... were all guys I wanted us to pick... Up side for starts but developed skills for role players. Sometimes you get lucky and get both.

I find the prospect age debate interesting. Out of curiosity I looked up last season 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team all nba players their ages at the draft and what pick they where selected with. 

           pick   age at draft
Giannis   15   18.5
Tatum   3   19.3
Embiid   3   20.2
SGA          11   19.9
Luka            3   19.3
      
Jokic           41   19.3
Mitchel   13   20.7
Curry   7   21.2
Butler   30   21.7
Brown   3   19.6
      
Sabonis   11   20.1
Fox            5   19.5
Lillard   6   21.9
Randle    7   19.5
James   1   18.4


The oldest players are still all under the age of 22 at the time of the draft.

Looking at the Cs current rotation Tatum, Brown, KP, and Holiday where all 19 when drafted. Al was 21, White + Pritchard + Kornet where all 22, and Hauser was 23.

My thoughts are that in general if a team drafts a player over 22 they should be confident that he can fit a role very early in his career and his ceiling is likely low. Development may come in the form of transitioning into a role player as opposed to a high usage college role but large developmental leaps should not be expected. When drafting younger players there seems to be more room for larger jumps in development. This may come in the form of physical development from still teens ( Tatum is a prime example) or skill development (Jaylen browns 3pt shot from high school to college to not is a prime example).

BS has favored the young raw developmental prospects in his 3 drafts as GM. Begarin, Davison, and Walsh all where drafted as teens with + physical and athletic profiles who needed/need to be developed to reach their high ceilings. Based on the Walsh and Davison picks I would wager that BS has a preference for blue chip prospects (both where highly ranked out of HS) who have the physical tools to reach an all-star or near all-star level this includes outlier length.

This draft in the late 1st / early 2nd really seems void of the young athletically gifted raw prospects.

I do think the older prospects are very valuable and may see their value in the current CBA. However this value will probably come for teams who have a set top 5-6 man rotation that's eating a large junk of their cap and they need to round out roles 7-12.

Players like Terrence Shannon 23, Tyler Kolek 23, or Cam Spencer 24 could all potentially plug into rotational roles and help teams next season. 


 

[W8ting2McHale]

Interesting that Juhann Begarin is still just 21. He doesn’t turn 22 until August, but he hasn’t developed his shot at all since the Celtics drafted him. He’s hitting under 30% from 3. I don’t know if that would be any different if he had spent time in Maine instead of France, but he’s not going to be an NBA player without a better shooting percentage. His athleticism and defense is still pretty good. Steals, blocks and rebounds are all decent for his position.

I guess he decided Euroleague money was better than having a Jaden Springer or Romeo Langford level NBA career?

[CFAN38]

Diving further into the draft I have come away really interested in Izan Almansa as a Celtics target.


He is a 6'9 / 6'10 big who will have just turned 19 at draft night and is one of the most decorated Euro prospects ever. Having been named U17, U18, and U19 FIBA MVP

https://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2023/news/is-izan-almansa-the-most-successful-youth-player-in-history

This was an interesting game to watch (admittedly I didn't have time to watch entire game). This features Almansa going head to head against Sarr. France also had playing Sarr's teammates Risacher (projected top 10) and Ajinca (potnetial 1st round pick who I really like)

https://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2023/game/2506/Spain-France

He went on to play for the G-League inginte and he statistically struggled. I am leaning toward the lack of structure and guard play hurt him on this team.

As a developmental prospect I see a lot of Al Horford in his game with a more refined post game. He shows some flashing off the dribble especially on dribble hand off fakes.  While he doesn't jump off the screen as an athlete he moves well and has enough vertical pop at the rim to finish in traffic. Defensively like Al I think he will be able to move laterally quick enough to successfully switch onto smaller players in the NBA.

His swing skill will be his outside shot. He currently isn't a shooter but at such a young age I would gamble on his developing a reliable spot up jumper. With out the shot I am comfortable that Izan is a rotational big who can provide playoff minutes with a couple of seasons of development.     

[CFAN38]

A few takes post combine.

At the top

Sarr measured very similar to Tyson Chandler and was actually a 1/4" taller with 1 1/4" longer wingspan. I haven't been a big Sarr guy but if teams are being honest with themselves the top of this draft really doesn't have a player who is a likely all-star. His combination of size in mobility gives him a Nerlens Noel / Wiley Cauley-Stein level floor. While this may sound underwhelming both of those bigs had 12pt 8rb seasons. His ceiling could be around Bam level and he likely falls some where in between and is a very valuable and effective winning basketball player.

Rob Dillingham he is a player that I am really torn on. On the positive side he is the player in this draft most capable of coming into the NBA and averaging 20+ppg. If he is drafted by the Spurs and given the keys to the offense he will be the rookie of the year. My concern hinges around his size at 6'1 164lbs with a 6'3" wingspan he is 14lbs lighter then Trae Young was at the combine. Young has struggled to translate his game to winning basketball and Dillingham isn't the level of player Young is. Another smaller all be it longer armed guard who I think Dillingham's career may emulate is Dennis Schroder. Like Schroder Dillingham is probably best served as a high minute 6th man/bench scoring spark. Not a role typically drafted for in the top 10.

Clingan/Edey both guys measured out HUGE. GMs will have an interesting choice to make on the way the league is going to trend. If they think Jokic, Embiid and now Wemby will continue the trend back towards bigs then both of these players are good enough to warrant being drafted in the lottery. I like the idea of Edey to Memphis, let him start and play 20-25mpg then open up minutes for JJJ at the 5. I also wonder if Spurs go big with Clingan and force other teams to adjust to Wemby at the 4?

Risacher/Salaun both players are getting a lot of media buzz. Risacher is being pushed by ESPN as a top 3 pick and Givony mentioned Salaun has interest in the top 10. I find it interesting that both of these french prospects are getting so much buzz while Melvin Ajinca has gotten nothing. Watching the 2023 FIBA U19 its hard to not see Ajinca as a top 20 pick.

Kel'el Ware the narrative around Ware seems to be that his motor is an issue and team will be hesitant to draft him because of it. If those concerns where not hanging over him he is no doubt a top 10pick. He is the same size as Sarr except 6lbs heavier and had almost identical athletic testing numbers. Much like Sarr the long-term hope is that he can shoot the NBA 3 making him a Myles Turner like starting 5. (Celtics side note, if he slips into the 20s and the Cs think their vets/team culture can positively effect his development he could be a swing for the fence trade up candidate)

Buzelis/Holland while the two Ignite wings are different I have bunched them together as my default draft risers. I predict that what push comes to shoe teams will look at these two as athletic young wings with solid positional size who both where blue chip high-school prospects and feel comfortable taking them anywhere 1-14. A GM can very easily sell fans, owners, coaches on a 6'10 (in shoes) 19 year old who can put his head on the rim and we think will develop as a shooter or a 6'8 (in shoes) wing who could theoretically have a similar developmental path to Jaylen Brown.

Reed Sheppard he seems to be getting a lot of media buzz as a top of the lottery guy. The league for medical release purposes send out a list that projected Sheppard going 7-10. I think he goes in the lottery but even in a weaker draft I don't see teams clamoring for a player of Sheppards size and perceived complimentary skill set. The analytics love him but I really question how the defensive numbers translate given his lack of size and length. His usage in college was only 18% the only guard successful guard in that range I have found is Jrue Holiday at 19%. Much like Dillingham I do think Sheppard can and will be a successful NBA player however I really question if that's as a starting guard. He also may prove to be a very valuable 6th man type guard in the mold of a better defending Seth Curry.

Cody Williams this doesn't seem to be an issue for any of the draft media but 6'6.5" and only 178lbs really worries me for a projected lottery pick. That is outlier skinny and I worry that his lack of strength will be to much for him to overcome.

Devin Carter he is another player who I think contributes right away. Probably not as a PG but as a small SG in the De'anthony Melton / Miles Mcbride mold. He seems like a really solid pick for a team in the teens looking to add to their rotation next season.   

Later in the Draft

Adem Bona    measured really well and as highlights have already shown he tested and very explosive. Ive been beating this drum for a while but he is a player who should be drafted with a plan to develop him and curb his fouling. If that is successful he can be a key piece to a big man rotation providing elite switching defense. 

Baylor Scheierman he stood out to me in the combine scrimmage and is a player I can see plugging into a good team as a 8th-10th man who comes in plays hard and hits open shots. Ill be surprised if he isn't drafted in the top 35.

Tristen Newton he measured out nearly identical to Derrick White. As a pg who is a proven winner with good size he is another guy who could be rotation ready (10th-12th man) for a good team and he should be available in the mid to late second.

[Who]

A few takes post combine.

At the top

Sarr measured very similar to Tyson Chandler and was actually a 1/4" taller with 1 1/4" longer wingspan. I haven't been a big Sarr guy but if teams are being honest with themselves the top of this draft really doesn't have a player who is a likely all-star. His combination of size in mobility gives him a Nerlens Noel / Wiley Cauley-Stein level floor. While this may sound underwhelming both of those bigs had 12pt 8rb seasons. His ceiling could be around Bam level and he likely falls some where in between and is a very valuable and effective winning basketball player.

I have seen some people saying Sarr has a jump-shot. That they expect him to be able to shoot 3s in the NBA. Sort of a Tyson Chandler on defense and basic rim roller / spot up shooter on offense. More upside if he can develop shot-creation skills towards AD type offense. But at least role player offense with shooting range.

[CFAN38]

A few takes post combine.

At the top

Sarr measured very similar to Tyson Chandler and was actually a 1/4" taller with 1 1/4" longer wingspan. I haven't been a big Sarr guy but if teams are being honest with themselves the top of this draft really doesn't have a player who is a likely all-star. His combination of size in mobility gives him a Nerlens Noel / Wiley Cauley-Stein level floor. While this may sound underwhelming both of those bigs had 12pt 8rb seasons. His ceiling could be around Bam level and he likely falls some where in between and is a very valuable and effective winning basketball player.

I have seen some people saying Sarr has a jump-shot. That they expect him to be able to shoot 3s in the NBA. Sort of a Tyson Chandler on defense and basic rim roller / spot up shooter on offense. More upside if he can develop shot-creation skills towards AD type offense. But at least role player offense with shooting range.

I have also heard that and think a jump shot could make him a Bam level all-star center. Not a focal point to an offense like Jokic, Embiid or Wemby but a solid #2 or #3 on a good team.

[keevsnick]

Boston had the best record in the NBA by seven games with a 64-18 record so they will hold the No. 30 overall draft pick in the first round in June. Brad Stevens has yet to make a first-round selection during his tenure as team president of basketball operations over the past three years so it will be interesting to see whether that trend will continue in 2024.

The one pick that was impacted during Monday’s tiebreaker was a second-round selection that Boston had previously acquired via the Dallas Mavericks (through Sacramento). Boston picked up the extra pick on draft night in 2023 for trading down in the second round. The Knicks and Mavericks finished tied with their regular season records and the Mavericks won the tiebreaker to finish ahead of New York in the first round at No. 24.

The NBA flips-flops the draft order of ties in the second round so Boston’s draft pick (via Dallas) in the second round will drop one slot lower. However, the team does get bumped up to No. 54 overall since the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 48) had to forfeit their second-round pick as a penalty for free agency tampering.

Boston also sent out their own second-round pick (No. 58) previously as part of compensation to the Hornets to create a TPE in the Gordon Hayward sign-and-trade in 2020. Boston also traded away what ended up being the No. 41 overall pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for young guard Jaden Springer.

The next key night for the NBA Draft will during the May 12 lottery, which will officially set the draft order for the top 14 teams. From there, the 2024 NBA Draft will be held on June 26th in what will be a two-night event for the first time with the second round being held on night two.

So, #30 and #54.

I still can't get over the fact they're trying to stretch this thing over two days now.

They literally picked the worst year to do it lol. I’m not even sure I’m watching round one this year.

Tankathon has us taking Ulrich Chomche and I'm going to watch, simply because that's such a great name.

I'm far from a NBA draft scout, but just reading around Ulrich intrigues me. He's 6'10.5 with a 7'4 wingspan and pretty good athleticism. Think of a Chris Bosh style body type. Youngest player in the draft, doesn't turn 19 until December 30th. He's raw defensively, but according to scouting reports has good instincts on that end. Has shown flashes of shooting.

Basically a VERY raw prospect, but i think a flyer on a guy like that with upside is worth a late 1st early second. Develop him next seaosn behind Horford and KP.

[Celtics2021]

Interesting that Juhann Begarin is still just 21. He doesn’t turn 22 until August, but he hasn’t developed his shot at all since the Celtics drafted him. He’s hitting under 30% from 3. I don’t know if that would be any different if he had spent time in Maine instead of France, but he’s not going to be an NBA player without a better shooting percentage. His athleticism and defense is still pretty good. Steals, blocks and rebounds are all decent for his position.

I guess he decided Euroleague money was better than having a Jaden Springer or Romeo Langford level NBA career?

He wouldn’t have a Springer or Langford career because the Celtics are only offering him a 2-way at best, and the other two got first-round money and the multiple guaranteed years that come with it.

Also, I’m very curious about the C’s plans for Springer next year.  It’s hard to see how he fits on this team, but Brad clearly has a vision.

[liam]

Interesting that Juhann Begarin is still just 21. He doesn’t turn 22 until August, but he hasn’t developed his shot at all since the Celtics drafted him. He’s hitting under 30% from 3. I don’t know if that would be any different if he had spent time in Maine instead of France, but he’s not going to be an NBA player without a better shooting percentage. His athleticism and defense is still pretty good. Steals, blocks and rebounds are all decent for his position.

I guess he decided Euroleague money was better than having a Jaden Springer or Romeo Langford level NBA career?

He wouldn’t have a Springer or Langford career because the Celtics are only offering him a 2-way at best, and the other two got first-round money and the multiple guaranteed years that come with it.

Also, I’m very curious about the C’s plans for Springer next year.  It’s hard to see how he fits on this team, but Brad clearly has a vision.

Springer might have a role on this team going forward if he can fix that shot but he might just be here as a salary piece in a trade...