Another excellent game by Jrue.
Yeah, who knew White was going to fall off a cliff? We've really needed Jrue's steady hand these past couple of games. Dude decided to step up at exactly the right time.
Didn't everyone know White was going to fall off a cliff? I mean White was always going to regress to the mean. That is how those things work.
There’s a space between clear All-Star and 2022 playoffs disaster. We thought he had moved past the latter. Hopefully it really is just a mini-slump and not indicative of something greater. We are who we are this season in large part to White elevating his game.
But luckily Jrue suddenly became a much better player just as White fell off. That has been huge. If both of them just ‘regress to the mean’, then we will be fine, as well
well when you play well above your level, you are invariably going to play well below it at some point, so that you end up where you should be
No, that isn't how probabilities or regression to the mean work. There isn't some cosmic force that will make you play the perfect level of bad to instantly balance out the good, it's far, far more likely to have a bunch slightly below average games than a couple of real stinkers.
But even that isn't guaranteed, players have (and will continue to) go on unreasonably long hot streaks without suddenly having equally long/extreme cold streaks. And ditto for cold streaks like Al's not meaning that he's going to start shooting 57% on threes in the next 2 rounds.
Sure, they don't HAVE TO have unreasonably cold streaks after a hot streak. But they sometimes will. Shooting game to game is basically a normal distribution around your true average. most games you'll be relatively close to your average but for stretches you'll be crazy good or crazy bad, the tails of the distribution.
Following a crazy outlier shooting stretch one direction with a crazy outlier shooting stretch the other will happen sometimes. This is one of those times.
