The Luxury Tax could be the guide to the Cs next offseason

[CFAN38]

If the Lakers pick does convey, and assuming we use the DPE.

Going in to next season we would have two restricted FA's in the DPE player and Smart, right?

So this would be at least $20 million (assuming we get someone legit with the DPE) that we could use in a sign and trade, packaged with the Lakers pick and other picks (depending on the target)

Is a trade of  re-signed Smart, re-signed DPE Player (Williams, Randle, Evans), Morris, Lakers pick, Clippers pick enough to get another star level player? I would think so.

Say it's Anthony Davis. From their perspective, they are in a weird spot. Maybe now they aren't going to throw a max deal at Boogie. They likely won't be able to attract another star player, so AD will likely be pretty ticked at that point.

Ainge steps in with a package that allows NO to start a full rebuild. Smart on a cost controlled deal, let's say we get Randle with the DPE for Yabu and a couple 2nd rounders, or our 2018 1st.

Two young players with affordable long-term deals to build around, Morris under a good contract, plus a young top 5 talent in the 2018 draft, and another 1st or two? What other offer would New Orleans get that matches?

Same goes for the Spurs with Kawhi, assuming he leverages his way to a trade in the summer.

We would be a luxury tax team, but with a Golden State of the East starting lineup.

Pelicans are in a very weird spot. I believe they have over $90 million committed next season, leaving little chance for a max FA in the summer, unless they have a fire sale before the deadline.

So they almost have to supermax a guy coming off one of the worst injuries to a professional athlete.

If they don’t resign Boogie, and can’t clear enough space for a max (AND actually get an all-star to commit to New Orleans), they almost have to trade Davis and rebuild.

Devastating injury for the Pelicans, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Not to mention that this will likely be a full year of recovery for Boogie, so he realistically won't return until a couple months or more in to NEXT season.

I don't see Davis willing to essentially wizz away another season waiting for Boogie to come back. They will be lucky to make the playoffs this year, and if they are 10 games or so under .500 by the time Boogie gets back, what is their realistic expectation. They aren't a big market team, and they have traded away their draft assets.

They don't have a feasible way to move their $55 million in contracts tied up in to average/bad players (Holiday, Asik, Moore, Hill) over the next 2-4 additional seasons to this one. So they have three options:

1. Re-sign Boogie and essentially commit to this season and next season as a lost cause.
2. Let Boogie walk (no pun intended), and ATTEMPT to lure one mid-level max player to join AD and Team Mediocrity.
3. Move AD now to get as much value as possible while he has years on his contract, and tank for a couple years until some of those contracts expire, and Holiday finally becomes "tradeable" from an expiring deal perspective.

Pretty sure their front office is painfully aware of whatever window they thought they had opening, getting abruptly slammed shut.

Hopefully Danny just stays the course, uses the DPE on a solid talent, we try to compete as best we can this season, the Lakers start to suck again, and that pick conveys, which would then make us the most desirable trade partner with almost any selling team come draft night.

I agree. I think if Pelicans don’t shop him at the deadline, the best course of action would be to make the minor moves to fix our bench. Then, see what happens with the Lakers pick AND the Pelicans offseason moves. If we land the Lakers pick, that may be enough to get AD (with other assets, of course). And if it doesn’t convey, but the Pelicans offseason moves aren’t to AD’s liking, we could see the Kings pick be the center of an August deal for AD (just like Kyrie).

It’s gonna be interesting to see how New Orleans handles this deadline/offseason.

Wow, my attempt to break down the luxury taxes effect on the Cs off-season somehow has become another Anthony Davis thread.

Bottom line with Davis is this.

The Pelicans are likely going to trade for Mirotic as has been reported.

They are also likely to still go all in and pay Cousins big this off-season.

They have no incentive to trade Anthony Davis this trade deadline or this off-season.

The time to trade AD will be around the 2019 draft. At this point he will have 1 yr left on his deal and a player option. If the team isn't a top 3 team in the west at that point there will be a real threat that he leaves as a FA after the 19/20 season. At that point Al will be going into the player option year of his contract and the Cs will have the Kings pick (if they don't get lakers this year), Grizz pick (top 6 protected), and clippers pick (top 14 protected) to build a potential trade package with. It also could be important to have a player like smart on a roughly 10mill deal that maybe needed to construct an AD package if Al isnt going to take his option

Until the 2019 draft I do not see any reason for the Pelicans to even think about trading AD. 

[GreenEnvy]

Wow, my attempt to break down the luxury taxes effect on the Cs off-season somehow has become another Anthony Davis thread.

Bottom line with Davis is this.

The Pelicans are likely going to trade for Mirotic as has been reported.

They are also likely to still go all in and pay Cousins big this off-season.

They have no incentive to trade Anthony Davis this trade deadline or this off-season.

The time to trade AD will be around the 2019 draft. At this point he will have 1 yr left on his deal and a player option. If the team isn't a top 3 team in the west at that point there will be a real threat that he leaves as a FA after the 19/20 season. At that point Al will be going into the player option year of his contract and the Cs will have the Kings pick (if they don't get lakers this year), Grizz pick (top 6 protected), and clippers pick (top 14 protected) to build a potential trade package with. It also could be important to have a player like smart on a roughly 10mill deal that maybe needed to construct an AD package if Al isnt going to take his option

Until the 2019 draft I do not see any reason for the Pelicans to even think about trading AD.

Cmon, it’s CB... every thread is an AD thread.

As for your bottom line, I disagree. Mirotic doesn’t move the needle, at all. First round playoff fodder, at best.

Isn’t Boogie eligible for that supermax, where he will get something like $40M per? Are you sure NOP is ready to dole that out for a guy his size coming off that type of injury?

So there can certainly be reason to believe the time will come sooner rather than later to trade AD. The less time on his contract, the less valuable he becomes. How many teams will give up the farm when he has a year left and no guarantee he will stay? When it’s 2 years, that’s a big difference. Let’s be real, they won’t be a top 3 team next year. Not happening. But let’s say they are the 4-5 seed, which is super-optimistic. Then what? They will be in no real position to make additional moves. I reckon they don’t have any potential top picks on the horizon, just their own.

So they will be stuck in the good-but-not-great category for the foreseeable future, all while AD’s value continues to come down. Maybe they can sell him and the fans on a couple more years of what they are, mediocre. I don’t know. But after a while they will have to put a much better team around him or start over. If they start over, the time to move him would be this offseason, or the latest the 2019 deadline.

[Emmette Bryant]

I don't want to start a new thread and I think that this article fits in here

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/celtics-trade-rumors-news-marcus-smart-contract-free-agency-draft-pick-julius-randle-rodney-hood/k3r8qz4gs16u1e0d2gprlqbl4

[sdceltsfan]

If the Lakers pick does convey, and assuming we use the DPE.

Going in to next season we would have two restricted FA's in the DPE player and Smart, right?

So this would be at least $20 million (assuming we get someone legit with the DPE) that we could use in a sign and trade, packaged with the Lakers pick and other picks (depending on the target)

Is a trade of  re-signed Smart, re-signed DPE Player (Williams, Randle, Evans), Morris, Lakers pick, Clippers pick enough to get another star level player? I would think so.

Say it's Anthony Davis. From their perspective, they are in a weird spot. Maybe now they aren't going to throw a max deal at Boogie. They likely won't be able to attract another star player, so AD will likely be pretty ticked at that point.

Ainge steps in with a package that allows NO to start a full rebuild. Smart on a cost controlled deal, let's say we get Randle with the DPE for Yabu and a couple 2nd rounders, or our 2018 1st.

Two young players with affordable long-term deals to build around, Morris under a good contract, plus a young top 5 talent in the 2018 draft, and another 1st or two? What other offer would New Orleans get that matches?

Same goes for the Spurs with Kawhi, assuming he leverages his way to a trade in the summer.

We would be a luxury tax team, but with a Golden State of the East starting lineup.

Pelicans are in a very weird spot. I believe they have over $90 million committed next season, leaving little chance for a max FA in the summer, unless they have a fire sale before the deadline.

So they almost have to supermax a guy coming off one of the worst injuries to a professional athlete.

If they don’t resign Boogie, and can’t clear enough space for a max (AND actually get an all-star to commit to New Orleans), they almost have to trade Davis and rebuild.

Devastating injury for the Pelicans, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Not to mention that this will likely be a full year of recovery for Boogie, so he realistically won't return until a couple months or more in to NEXT season.

I don't see Davis willing to essentially wizz away another season waiting for Boogie to come back. They will be lucky to make the playoffs this year, and if they are 10 games or so under .500 by the time Boogie gets back, what is their realistic expectation. They aren't a big market team, and they have traded away their draft assets.

They don't have a feasible way to move their $55 million in contracts tied up in to average/bad players (Holiday, Asik, Moore, Hill) over the next 2-4 additional seasons to this one. So they have three options:

1. Re-sign Boogie and essentially commit to this season and next season as a lost cause.
2. Let Boogie walk (no pun intended), and ATTEMPT to lure one mid-level max player to join AD and Team Mediocrity.
3. Move AD now to get as much value as possible while he has years on his contract, and tank for a couple years until some of those contracts expire, and Holiday finally becomes "tradeable" from an expiring deal perspective.

Pretty sure their front office is painfully aware of whatever window they thought they had opening, getting abruptly slammed shut.

Hopefully Danny just stays the course, uses the DPE on a solid talent, we try to compete as best we can this season, the Lakers start to suck again, and that pick conveys, which would then make us the most desirable trade partner with almost any selling team come draft night.

I agree. I think if Pelicans don’t shop him at the deadline, the best course of action would be to make the minor moves to fix our bench. Then, see what happens with the Lakers pick AND the Pelicans offseason moves. If we land the Lakers pick, that may be enough to get AD (with other assets, of course). And if it doesn’t convey, but the Pelicans offseason moves aren’t to AD’s liking, we could see the Kings pick be the center of an August deal for AD (just like Kyrie).

It’s gonna be interesting to see how New Orleans handles this deadline/offseason.

Wow, my attempt to break down the luxury taxes effect on the Cs off-season somehow has become another Anthony Davis thread.

Bottom line with Davis is this.

The Pelicans are likely going to trade for Mirotic as has been reported.

They are also likely to still go all in and pay Cousins big this off-season.

They have no incentive to trade Anthony Davis this trade deadline or this off-season.

The time to trade AD will be around the 2019 draft. At this point he will have 1 yr left on his deal and a player option. If the team isn't a top 3 team in the west at that point there will be a real threat that he leaves as a FA after the 19/20 season. At that point Al will be going into the player option year of his contract and the Cs will have the Kings pick (if they don't get lakers this year), Grizz pick (top 6 protected), and clippers pick (top 14 protected) to build a potential trade package with. It also could be important to have a player like smart on a roughly 10mill deal that maybe needed to construct an AD package if Al isnt going to take his option

Until the 2019 draft I do not see any reason for the Pelicans to even think about trading AD.

Wow, someone got their panties all in a bunch when people "took their thread over" with a few comments. If you read my initial comment on the thread, it was a fairly umbrelled speculation on any given marquee player available. AD is a common example as he fits our biggest needs, is under contract for multiple seasons, and offers for him would likely be the highest cost of tradeable assets You can plug and play any rumored All-Star caliber player made available for trade.

So sorry for souring your totally original thread...