Author Topic: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...  (Read 38105 times)

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Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #210 on: December 11, 2019, 10:16:02 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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The fact that you look at the Cs and the GSW and identify the difference in the Centers they started is nuts.

Almost as bad as you thinking the GSW is some sort of elite rebounding team, they weren't! Here's a run down of last few years champs rebounding ranking

2018-2019 Raptors 13th
2017-2018 GSW 19th
2016-2017 GSW 10th
2015-2016 Cavs 4th
2014-2015 GSW 14th

Boston this year is 18th.
But they were all good to great defensive rebounding teams. Great teams secure defensive rebounds to stop the opposition's attack and initiate their own offensive possession consistently after a successful defensive possession.
No they weren't!

Defensive rebounding of champs

2018-2019 Raptors 15th
2017-2018 GSW 25th
2016-2017 GSW 29th
2015-2016 Cavs 5th
2014-2015 GSW 18th
Huh? These are the defensive rebounding rankings of those title teams from basketball reference:
2018-2019 Raptors 9th
2017-2018 GSW 6th
2016-2017 GSW 3rd
2015-2016 Cavs 9th
2014-2015 GSW 4th
Rebounds per game is an inferior measure compared to rebounding rate.

All the stats I have are the rate statistics. As in on a percentage basis how often did the team get the defensive board on a missed shot.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #211 on: December 11, 2019, 10:17:17 AM »

Offline saltlover

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The fact that you look at the Cs and the GSW and identify the difference in the Centers they started is nuts.

Almost as bad as you thinking the GSW is some sort of elite rebounding team, they weren't! Here's a run down of last few years champs rebounding ranking

2018-2019 Raptors 13th
2017-2018 GSW 19th
2016-2017 GSW 10th
2015-2016 Cavs 4th
2014-2015 GSW 14th

Boston this year is 18th.
But they were all good to great defensive rebounding teams. Great teams secure defensive rebounds to stop the opposition's attack and initiate their own offensive possession consistently after a successful defensive possession.
No they weren't!

Defensive rebounding of champs

2018-2019 Raptors 15th
2017-2018 GSW 25th
2016-2017 GSW 29th
2015-2016 Cavs 5th
2014-2015 GSW 18th
Huh? These are the defensive rebounding rankings of those title teams from basketball reference:
2018-2019 Raptors 9th
2017-2018 GSW 6th
2016-2017 GSW 3rd
2015-2016 Cavs 9th
2014-2015 GSW 4th

Fafnir is using DReb%.  You are using raw defensive rebounds.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #212 on: December 11, 2019, 10:18:06 AM »

Offline Bobshot

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I think, in the discussion about rebounding, some have forgotten about Bill Russell. The greatest rebounder/defender of them all.

I remember Bill's first game in '57. Prior to that, the Celtics were bridesmaids--excellent offensively, but lacking a defender in the middle.
Ed Macauley was a scorer, not a defender.

Russell changed all that. They became unbeatable with Russell. His rebounding and rim protection did it. He was never a scorer. About 16.7 ppg lifetime.

I've read this kid Robert Williams has very good per minute defensive stats. Trouble is he doesn't play enough to make it significant.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #213 on: December 11, 2019, 10:24:10 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I've read this kid Robert Williams has very good per minute defensive stats. Trouble is he doesn't play enough to make it significant.
He has good per minute rebounding stats, defensively he's been a liability overall due to his propensity for mistakes. If he could make decisions as consistently as Kanter even he'd be on the court a lot more imo.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #214 on: December 11, 2019, 10:30:05 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Fafnir is using DReb%.  You are using raw defensive rebounds.
Yup, and the GSW played at an above average pace and were good at generating opponent misses. (their defensive eFG% was good) Which means there are a lot of raw defensive boards to be had.

They were decidedly not good at securing defensive rebounds if you look at how many opportunities they had to get them.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #215 on: December 11, 2019, 10:35:48 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Center is like the least important position in the league right now. Particularly on offense. If we're going to upgrade it it should be done as cheaply as possible. Not at the cost of any of our top 5, unless someone like KAT is available, which he's not.


If center is the least important position, why is the best player for each of the top teams in the league a dominant big man ??

The top teams in the league are the Bucks, Lakers, us, Heat, Clippers. Their best players are Giannis, LeBron, pick em, Butler, Kawhi. None of those are centers and most are pure wings. You have to go down to the (so far) underachieving Nuggets and Sixers to find a team whose best player is a center and they're right in there with Dallas, Toronto and Houston whose best guys are a PG a PF and another PG.

So 2 out of the 10 top teams have a C as their best player, and none of the top 5. Your argument doesn't hold up.

All the teams you mentioned, except the Celtics, are top 5 in rebounding differential in the NBA this season.

Only the Celts, among the top teams in the league, have a negative rebounding differential.
That means the Celts are getting outrebounded by their opponents almost every game.

We don't need the Cs to have one of the top big men in the NBA.
What the Celts need is just basic rebounding.
Giving the opponents a lot of 2nd chance points will kill the Celts in the playoffs.

Celts can get away with giving the Cavs 18 offensive rebounds, but if they're facing elite teams, it will not end well for the Celts.

Next two games will be interesting. The Pacers are very long - they’ve figured out how to play Sabonis with Turner, and their shortest starter is Brogdon, who’s 6’5” and pretty stout. The following night, after flying back to Boston, they’ll get the even-longer Sixers.

It’d be GREAT to have a better rebounding big. But both of those teams would, in turn, love to have any one of our top 3 wings. every team has holes. We’ll see how big the rebounding hole is for us.

I agree, every team has holes.

But the hole the Celtics have is something fundamental.

Pat Riley said, no rebounds, no rings.


The GSW dynasty for example, they won when they were playing small ball.
But if you look at the stats, they were a decent rebounding team.

Right now the Celts have a negative differential in rebounding.
That means Celts get outrebounded almost every game.

The difference between the GSW dynasty and the current Celts is GSW used big and tall Centers.
GSW had Bogut then Pachulia during their championship run.
Both those Centers are not very productive, but opposing Centers couldn't jump over them or dunk over them like what big opposing Centers are doing to Theis.

No doubt Theis is playing well this season.
It's not his fault that he's only 6-8.

Sure, rebounding is fundamental. So is scoring and, especially in the playoffs, playmaking. The switchiest defense in the league is also a big, big plus. We have those other things in spades. As good as if not better than anybody.

A prediction: Indiana is going to outrebound the Celtics, substantially. But their wings won't be able to defend our wings and net, we are going to win.

Philly is the only East team whose length worries me, because they're also great on defense. But their shooting is weak and the team doesn't seem to fit well.  I really want to see us play them a few times to see what it looks like. The Lakers, and especially AD, also worry me. But again I'd like to see them match up.

I'd really, really like better rebounding. I don't concede it's clearly fatal.


Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #216 on: December 11, 2019, 04:17:17 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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You make that trade to counter the 76ers' Embiid, the Bucks' Giannis, and the Lakers' Davis in the playoffs.

True.

The postseason will be different from the regular season.

Teams will be in a 7-game series and every game there will be adjustments.


Just like we thought we had the Bucks after beating them in Game 1 in last season's playoffs.

A more balanced Celtics team will have a better chance of winning a championship this season.

The bucks beat us because Irving quit on us.

I’d rather have smart vs the freak than Drummond.

Smart is this teams KG. He brings the attitude every game you need to win playoff games. He’s the only guy that can change the game on the defensive end.

I think a big will pop up that won’t cost the team to much.
Tacko, I think will be able to give us minutes against Embrid if we play int playoffs. Semi has done well against the Freak.
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Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #217 on: December 11, 2019, 04:29:05 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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You make that trade to counter the 76ers' Embiid, the Bucks' Giannis, and the Lakers' Davis in the playoffs.

True.

The postseason will be different from the regular season.

Teams will be in a 7-game series and every game there will be adjustments.


Just like we thought we had the Bucks after beating them in Game 1 in last season's playoffs.

A more balanced Celtics team will have a better chance of winning a championship this season.

The bucks beat us because Irving quit on us.

I’d rather have smart vs the freak than Drummond.

Smart is this teams KG. He brings the attitude every game you need to win playoff games. He’s the only guy that can change the game on the defensive end.

I think a big will pop up that won’t cost the team to much.
Tacko, I think will be able to give us minutes against Embrid if we play int playoffs. Semi has done well against the Freak.

I hate to say it but I think Embiid would eat Tacko alive (pun intended or not).


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Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #218 on: December 11, 2019, 07:31:49 PM »

Online tenn_smoothie

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I've read this kid Robert Williams has very good per minute defensive stats. Trouble is he doesn't play enough to make it significant.
He has good per minute rebounding stats, defensively he's been a liability overall due to his propensity for mistakes. If he could make decisions as consistently as Kanter even he'd be on the court a lot more imo.

Rob Will was SEC Defensive Player of the Year, so I am hoping those mistakes are just him learning the pro game. Among our post players R-Williams has the highest ceiling and he could make a huge difference if he turns into a very good defender/rebounder. If he wants to contribute to winning in a way that is similar to Russell's style, he has to stop putting blocked shots into the seats and keep them in play - this team would run like crazy off his defense and he would make an excellent trailer. We would still need Baynes type bulk off the bench to compliment Williams and help us compete with the bigger teams.

Danny went small-ball perimeter crazy in the draft as usual ............. Don't understand him sometimes.
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Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #219 on: December 11, 2019, 09:35:13 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Celts lost to the Pacers.

Sabonis was dominant against the Celts.

If it takes losses to convince Celtic fans that there is a big man problem then here's another loss to a big team.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #220 on: December 11, 2019, 09:41:15 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Then trade Brown for Sabonis.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #221 on: December 11, 2019, 10:06:06 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Celts lost to the Pacers.

Sabonis was dominant against the Celts.

If it takes losses to convince Celtic fans that there is a big man problem then here's another loss to a big team.
1. Sabonis wasn't dominant.

2. The Celtics didn't lose because they had a big man problem. They lost because they let the Holiday boys go 15-23 for 35 points. The Celtics only gave up 5 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Indy by 8 rebounds. Boston scored two more points in the paint than Indy did.

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #222 on: December 11, 2019, 10:25:14 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Celts lost to the Pacers.

Sabonis was dominant against the Celts.

If it takes losses to convince Celtic fans that there is a big man problem then here's another loss to a big team.
1. Sabonis wasn't dominant.

2. The Celtics didn't lose because they had a big man problem. They lost because they let the Holiday boys go 15-23 for 35 points. The Celtics only gave up 5 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Indy by 8 rebounds. Boston scored two more points in the paint than Indy did.
15/14/8 is pretty dominant to me, at least overall, though not scoring himself.  He was also +21 only A. Holiday was better for the Pacers.  Tatum was sub-par, Theis fouled out, and Kanter was basically non-existent.  Turner and Sabonis were real problems for the C's.  though as you point out the Holidays were pretty darn good.
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Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #223 on: December 11, 2019, 10:31:54 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Celts lost to the Pacers.

Sabonis was dominant against the Celts.

If it takes losses to convince Celtic fans that there is a big man problem then here's another loss to a big team.

Robert Williams would have helped tonight

Re: If the Celts are going to make a blockbuster...
« Reply #224 on: December 11, 2019, 10:34:54 PM »

Offline liam

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Celts lost to the Pacers.

Sabonis was dominant against the Celts.

If it takes losses to convince Celtic fans that there is a big man problem then here's another loss to a big team.

Robert Williams would have helped tonight

Theis would've helped more if he wasn't plagued with bad foul calls.