Poll

Would u make the trade

Yes
5 (8.8%)
No
51 (89.5%)
Yes, with One first instead.
1 (1.8%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Author Topic: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond  (Read 4970 times)

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Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #30 on: December 16, 2018, 12:37:25 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I would not trade Horford for Drummond straight up, never mind adding Rozier and two 1sts

You're greatly underestimating Horford's impact on both ends of the floor for this team. His outside shooting and passing skills, along with his leadership and defense are huge for us.

No I don't..he's a great role player at this point. 10.4 RPG in his prime. Guess when that was. When he was 26 years old. What is he avg now? 6.4 RPG.

This is just plain old lazy and incorrect statistical reference in order to try to prove your point. Horford was not in his prime during the 12-13 season, the season you’re referencing in your argument. In fact, he didn’t even make the all-star team. Regardless here are things you failed to extrapolate from his stats:

MPG
During the 12-13 season he played a career high 37.2 mpg, last year (I used last season as a reference since it provides a full year’s worth of data) he averaged 31.6 mpg. So while the raw stats show you’re correct and the 12-13 Horford was a better rebounder than last year 10.2 rpg to 7.4 rpg, what happens when those minutes are similar? Lucky for us there are per 36 stats and that immediately reduces the gap to just a 1.5 rpg differential - 9.9 to 8.4.

3PG & ORB
So I guess you’re right and Horford’s rebounding has diminished, right? Wrong! What you also failed to consider is that Horford is now a 3pt shooter and as result he’s playing much further from the rim, so thinking logically it’s likely his offensive rebound numbers suffer. Last season he had 226 3pt attempts, while just 6 during the 12-13 season. As a result, his per 36 of 2.5 offensive rebounds per game (ORB) were better during the 12-13 season, 2.5 to 1.6.

Conclusion
However, when you remove the ORB from the stats to account for the difference in his new perimeter oriented style, do you know the difference is between “peak” 12-13 Horford and last year’s all-star version? 0.5 rpg! That’s it! 7.3 defensive rebounds per game to 6.8. So let’s ease up the false narrative you’re using to try to help your weak argument.

Thank you.

To further point out the silliness of this take, consider that, while Detroit is currently ranked 2nd in defensive rebounding, grabbing 79.8% of defensive rebound chances, Boston is just a sliver back, in 4th place, grabbing 78.9% of all defensive rebound chances.  Statistically, that difference is in the noise.

ALL the top 9 or so defensive rebounding teams are all crunched up close behind the top team (MIL, at 80.9%) and the fact is, anything we did to improve our rebounding on that end is going to hit the wall of diminishing returns.  Those top teams (including BOS) are already vacuuming up all of their opponents missed shots that they reasonably have a real chance at.  The other 20% are those that bounce out right back to an opposing team that you don't really have a chance to grab, regardless of how good you are at grabbing rebounds.

If you replaced Al Horford with Andre Drummond, yes, HE individually would probably post greater defensive rebounding numbers than Al Horford currently does.  But the team would likely not grab any significant difference more.

And on the other end of the court, offensive rebounding is far more about scheme than it is about ability.  Detroit is a team that relies heavily on having at least one big man (and often two) play within ten feet of the hoop constantly.  Thus, they are going to have someone in position to grab more ORBs.   Boston tends to play an outside-in game, with it's only one big often on the perimeter.  Boston also tends to forgo crashing for ORBs in favor of transition D -- a critical part of why the Celtics have the #3 defense, which happens to surrender a full 4.4 points per 100 possessions fewer than Detroit's defense.  That more than makes up for the measly extra 1.8 offensive rebounds that Detroit grabs every 100 possessions.

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Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #31 on: December 16, 2018, 01:20:51 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Poor Al.  Forever underrated.

one guy proposes a not very smart trade idea AH and about 20 dismissed the it without second thought

I"d say Horford is very well respected

Yeah, the poll is at 91% No. He's well respected here.

I voted No as well but I am a little surprised it's as lopsided as it is.
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Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #32 on: December 16, 2018, 01:32:28 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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I voted No as well. Like the Lakers, we should hold onto to everything we have for the summer. If Davis tells NO he wants out, they will need to unload him when he has maximum value.

Also, I do not feel Drummond is more valuable then Horford. In the playoffs wars to come, I would much rather have Al on our side. I am also not a fan of needing to take out our center at the end of vital games due them not being able to hit FT's. Although he is not shooting his careers lows there in the 30's, he is at around 50% so far. I expect that to regress as the season goes on. Al is awesome with FT's and I love the way he gets others involved with his high assist totals.

Another thing is that Drummond has had one season where he had a plus rating. Horford has had a plus  rating on the court every year since he has been in the league except his first. He simply makes those around him better and it shows on the net result of who he is out there with. This is a huge, huge deal in my opinion.  Drummond might put up higher raw stats with points and rebounds, but the net effect of the team out there and raising the level of those around you, Horford has a clear advantage in my mind.

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #33 on: December 16, 2018, 01:53:50 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I would not trade Horford for Drummond straight up, never mind adding Rozier and two 1sts

You're greatly underestimating Horford's impact on both ends of the floor for this team. His outside shooting and passing skills, along with his leadership and defense are huge for us.

No I don't..he's a great role player at this point. 10.4 RPG in his prime. Guess when that was. When he was 26 years old. What is he avg now? 6.4 RPG.

This is just plain old lazy and incorrect statistical reference in order to try to prove your point. Horford was not in his prime during the 12-13 season, the season you’re referencing in your argument. In fact, he didn’t even make the all-star team. Regardless here are things you failed to extrapolate from his stats:

MPG
During the 12-13 season he played a career high 37.2 mpg, last year (I used last season as a reference since it provides a full year’s worth of data) he averaged 31.6 mpg. So while the raw stats show you’re correct and the 12-13 Horford was a better rebounder than last year 10.2 rpg to 7.4 rpg, what happens when those minutes are similar? Lucky for us there are per 36 stats and that immediately reduces the gap to just a 1.5 rpg differential - 9.9 to 8.4.

3PG & ORB
So I guess you’re right and Horford’s rebounding has diminished, right? Wrong! What you also failed to consider is that Horford is now a 3pt shooter and as result he’s playing much further from the rim, so thinking logically it’s likely his offensive rebound numbers suffer. Last season he had 226 3pt attempts, while just 6 during the 12-13 season. As a result, his per 36 of 2.5 offensive rebounds per game (ORB) were better during the 12-13 season, 2.5 to 1.6.

Conclusion
However, when you remove the ORB from the stats to account for the difference in his new perimeter oriented style, do you know the difference is between “peak” 12-13 Horford and last year’s all-star version? 0.5 rpg! That’s it! 7.3 defensive rebounds per game to 6.8. So let’s ease up the false narrative you’re using to try to help your weak argument.
This is all good stuff and when you add in the fact that the OP wants Drummond so we have better rebounding, you find the Celtics are already one of the better rebounding teams in the league.

We are, as stated earlier, 5th in defensive rebounding percentage(a much better stat for determining how good a rebounder is) and 10th best overall rebounding team. If you also consider the fact that Boston, under both Doc and Stevens, has had a strategy of getting back on defense rather than crash the boards, you see if they didn't have that strategy they might be much higher as a total rebounding team.

And that strategy of getting back on defense works. The Celtics are the 6th best team in the league in giving up fast break points. If the Celtics went hard for offensive rebounds, it would hurt their overall defense.

Because of this Boston will never be a great offensive rebounding team and their overall rebounding won't be top 5 in the league. But they are already a great defensive rebounding team and losing everything else Horford does that Drummond can't makes no sense because all Drummond is going to do is increase our overall rebounding very little.

Also, even Detroit fans and radio and television announcers say Drummond is regularly taking portions of games and even whole games off mentally and that just would never fly on this team.

EDIT: just saw mmmmm had already posted most of this. TP mmmmm.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2018, 01:59:28 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #34 on: December 16, 2018, 02:09:11 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

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I lean to liking the 4-headed versatility of Horford, Baynes, Theis and Williams -- rather than substituting Drummond for Horford.   Drummond does a better job on the boards and finishing at the hoop than any of our bigs, but taken on the whole, I like what Horford brings. 

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #35 on: December 16, 2018, 02:42:29 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Last year's Horford > Drummond.

I think we'll see the excellent shooting, elite passing, DPOY candidate Horford before the end of the year.


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Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #36 on: December 16, 2018, 06:31:57 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Okay but who's a better rebounder Al Horford or Andre Drummond.

For DET, Greg Monroe averaged 7.5, 9.7, 9.6, 9.3, and 10.2 REB in five seasons. Should we trade Horford for him too?

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2018, 10:44:54 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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And get destroyed by Embiid? No thanks

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #38 on: December 17, 2018, 02:37:21 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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Horford just brings way too much to the table. Drummond is a guy who is really good at what he does best, which is rebound, but he’s a fairly limited player outside of that. Horford literally does everything on the floor: he can pass, shoot, and defend both individually and as a help defender. On a team like this you need a jack of all trades guy like Al, who can be effective on both ends without getting a ton of shots. Even to drastically improve in rebounding wouldn’t be worth it based on everything else we would lose going from Horford to Drummond.



 You say he's one dimensional. But he's avg 18 PPG to Al's 12 ppg. He's avg almost 10 RPG more than Al.

 And the last poster thinking 2 picks is too much. I don't. Keep the Kings pick Give the Celtics pick and either Memphis or Clipps pick.

 Drummond is 7 years younger! He would be our franchise big through the title runs. Why is this hard to understand that it's a positive move for the e franchise for years to come.

 I love bug Al, but this is a win for the Celtics.

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #39 on: December 17, 2018, 02:42:59 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I think it is possible that Drummond may be a bit underrated now. If you look at the Pistons they are somehow .500 with a bunch of hot garbage outside of Blake and Drummond. This is the rest of their rotation:

Stanley Johnson
Ish Smith
Reggie Jackson
Bullock
Kenard
Jose Caulderon
Langston Galloway
Bruce Brown?

I mean that is pretty ugly right?

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #40 on: December 17, 2018, 03:06:07 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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I think it is possible that Drummond may be a bit underrated now. If you look at the Pistons they are somehow .500 with a bunch of hot garbage outside of Blake and Drummond. This is the rest of their rotation:

Stanley Johnson
Ish Smith
Reggie Jackson
Bullock
Kenard
Jose Caulderon
Langston Galloway
Bruce Brown?

I mean that is pretty ugly right?



 Big time Clay. TP. The dude is a monster and exactly what we need. AL is good but way overrated around here. Drummond is better and way younger.
 

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #41 on: December 17, 2018, 03:09:03 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I think it is possible that Drummond may be a bit underrated now. If you look at the Pistons they are somehow .500 with a bunch of hot garbage outside of Blake and Drummond. This is the rest of their rotation:

Stanley Johnson
Ish Smith
Reggie Jackson
Bullock
Kenard
Jose Caulderon
Langston Galloway
Bruce Brown?

I mean that is pretty ugly right?

Guess I disagree on their talent. I like Kenard, Johnson, and Jackson. Galloway, Bullock, and Caulderon are good shooters to have on your bench. Brown and Thomas are both interesting 3/D prospects. Smith is a good backup point guard.

They don't have a blossoming star in the rest of their guys, but most of them are solid NBA players.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2018, 03:34:24 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #42 on: December 17, 2018, 04:02:49 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I think it is possible that Drummond may be a bit underrated now. If you look at the Pistons they are somehow .500 with a bunch of hot garbage outside of Blake and Drummond. This is the rest of their rotation:

Stanley Johnson
Ish Smith
Reggie Jackson
Bullock
Kenard
Jose Caulderon
Langston Galloway
Bruce Brown?

I mean that is pretty ugly right?

Guess I disagree on their talent. I like Kenard, Johnson, and Jackson. Galloway, Bullock, and Caulderon are good shooters to have on your bench. Brown and Thomas are both interesting 3/D prospects. Smith is a good backup point guard.

They don't have a blossoming star in the rest of their guys, but most of them are solid NBA players.

What do you like about Jackson? He shoots 40% from the field, 33%, doesn't seem like a particularly great passer. He looks like a below average defensive player from advanced metrics.
He is also making 17 million this year and 18 million next year.

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #43 on: December 17, 2018, 04:21:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Horford just brings way too much to the table. Drummond is a guy who is really good at what he does best, which is rebound, but he’s a fairly limited player outside of that. Horford literally does everything on the floor: he can pass, shoot, and defend both individually and as a help defender. On a team like this you need a jack of all trades guy like Al, who can be effective on both ends without getting a ton of shots. Even to drastically improve in rebounding wouldn’t be worth it based on everything else we would lose going from Horford to Drummond.



 You say he's one dimensional. But he's avg 18 PPG to Al's 12 ppg. He's avg almost 10 RPG more than Al.

 And the last poster thinking 2 picks is too much. I don't. Keep the Kings pick Give the Celtics pick and either Memphis or Clipps pick.

 Drummond is 7 years younger! He would be our franchise big through the title runs. Why is this hard to understand that it's a positive move for the e franchise for years to come.

 I love bug Al, but this is a win for the Celtics.
Since Drummond most likely won't fit in well with the switch everything defense and he won't really help our rebounding so much that it would make a difference. Also, Drummond can only score from 10 ft and in. 91-92% of his shots are from inside 10ft. Horford is a great switch everything center and defensive quarterback. He has range out to three and you have to bring your big out to cover him or Al will light him up.

All these things make Hordford the better player to have. And I want a guy like Horford mentoring Williams and not someone like Drummond, a guy who just can't stay focused for periods of time and plays like he doesn't care. 2-3 years learning from Horford, could make Williams the better long term solution to our center position.

Re: Poll: Horford+Rozier, Two firsts for Drummond
« Reply #44 on: December 17, 2018, 04:23:29 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I think it is possible that Drummond may be a bit underrated now. If you look at the Pistons they are somehow .500 with a bunch of hot garbage outside of Blake and Drummond. This is the rest of their rotation:

Stanley Johnson
Ish Smith
Reggie Jackson
Bullock
Kenard
Jose Caulderon
Langston Galloway
Bruce Brown?

I mean that is pretty ugly right?

Guess I disagree on their talent. I like Kenard, Johnson, and Jackson. Galloway, Bullock, and Caulderon are good shooters to have on your bench. Brown and Thomas are both interesting 3/D prospects. Smith is a good backup point guard.

They don't have a blossoming star in the rest of their guys, but most of them are solid NBA players.

What do you like about Jackson? He shoots 40% from the field, 33%, doesn't seem like a particularly great passer. He looks like a below average defensive player from advanced metrics.
He is also making 17 million this year and 18 million next year.

He hasn't lived up to his contract, but he is a decent guard creator. He's a legit NBA player. Probably should be coming off the bench, but its not like he is a g-leaguer.