Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs

[Celtics18]

My guess is that because teams will be planning around the 'dish' much more so than the drive, Chambers is supposing that the other perimeter players won't be particularly open.

Teams are going to give Rondo open driving lanes, so they can stick to three point shooters on the perimeter?

If that's what you are suggesting, I sure hope that's the defensive strategy that other teams are going to choose to employ against us. 

[MBunge]

All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible

I have the Celtics with 3 players in the top 100 -- Rondo, Sully and J.Green.

Although only Rondo in the top 50.

I'm with you on Sully in the top 100, but Green? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, 538 seems to have come out with the best overall W-L predictions so far, and they give the C's 32 wins:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

I'd like to think they'll do better than that but I can't really argue with that prediction.

Mike

[D.o.s.]

My guess is that because teams will be planning around the 'dish' much more so than the drive, Chambers is supposing that the other perimeter players won't be particularly open.

Teams are going to give Rondo open driving lanes, so they can stick to three point shooters on the perimeter?

If that's what you are suggesting, I sure hope that's the defensive strategy that other teams are going to choose to employ against us.

Yeah, because Rondo's a real offensive threat when he's forced to drive to the hoop and score on his own. 

Go ahead and bring up that 2012 ECF game, by the way. Not only is that a pre-injury example, but we lost.

[Celtics18]

My guess is that because teams will be planning around the 'dish' much more so than the drive, Chambers is supposing that the other perimeter players won't be particularly open.

Teams are going to give Rondo open driving lanes, so they can stick to three point shooters on the perimeter?

If that's what you are suggesting, I sure hope that's the defensive strategy that other teams are going to choose to employ against us.

Yeah, because Rondo's a real offensive threat when he's forced to drive to the hoop and score on his own. 

Go ahead and bring up that 2012 ECF game, by the way. Not only is that a pre-injury example, but we lost.

Of course he is a real offensive threat when he's driving to the hoop. 

I'm not sure which 2012 ECF game you are referring to, but I am going to assume you are talking about the 44 point game?

What happened in that game, if I remember correctly, is that the Heat chose the well worn strategy of going underneath picks and sagging off him at the top of the key to attempt to stop him from getting in the lane at will.  In that particular game, the strategy almost (I say almost, because as you point out the Heat did win that game) backfired.  Rondo punished the Heat for that strategy and hit a majority of his perimeter jumpers. 

I think people are confused about how the sagging off and going under picks against a subpar perimeter shooter strategy works.Some of you guys seem to be under the impression that when the opposition is willing to give a guy like Rondo--or Derrick Rose, or Lebron James, or Russell Westbrook, or John Wall, or Tony Parker--the perimeter jumper rather than play him tight or trap him off pick and rolls that this means they are choosing not to guard that player at all. 

Of course, it doesn't mean that.   That would be utterly ridiculous.  You can't not guard a player of that caliber.  As a matter of fact, in most of the Celtics more recent playoff runs, the opposition would often make trying to slow Rondo down the primary focus of their defensive strategy.  He's that good and that dangerous when he's playing at his best. 

I can just imagine an NBA coach devising a defensive strategy that says;  "give Rondo the lane.  That'll stop them." 

Sorry, no.   

[D.o.s.]

You're veering off into fantasy, though, in an apparent effort to miss the crux of my point: if Rondo is forced to be the primary scorer on the team, you're already playing to his weaknesses, rather than his strengths. That's the point I'm making, and that's the point that I assume chambers is making -- and it's a pretty uncontroversial one at that.

[Celtics18]

You're veering off into fantasy, though, in an apparent effort to miss the crux of my point: if Rondo is forced to be the primary scorer on the team, you're already playing to his weaknesses, rather than his strengths. That's the point I'm making, and that's the point that I assume chambers is making -- and it's a pretty uncontroversial one at that.

I'm not veering into fantasy at all.  I'm trying to explain to you, and to chambers, what actually happens on a basketball court.

You, and chambers, and many others, are confusing being the primary scorer with being the primary shot creator.

I doubt very seriously that Rajon Rondo will be the primary scorer on the 2014-2015 Celtics, but I do think he'll be the primary shot creator and the best player. 

If I've missed the crux of your point, I apologize, but maybe you need to try to explain it a little better. 

[D.o.s.]

You've got this admirable ability to simply cling to the positive through thick and thin, and respond to any suggestion that Rondo might not be at his best in a given scenario with the kind of earnest emphasis that is an entirely likeable quality in a Celtics fan, even if it's not tethered to reality at all.

If Rondo's got the ball in his hands and no one is willing to react to him as a scoring threat -- particularly if he's playing under Stevens' atrocious attempt at an offense -- then he's going to be ineffective, because his playmaking ability will be reduced. We know he's going to be ball dominant (sorry, 'primary shot creator'), because that's who he is as a player. Whether or not he'll be at his best in that role with this team, when he's not surrounded by particularly good players, is what's in doubt. That's not controversial, at all.

He is going to be our best player, for sure. He was our best player last year. Our team sucked last year. Our team sucks this year. QED.

[Celtics18]

You've got this admirable ability to simply cling to the positive through thick and thin, and respond to any suggestion that Rondo might not be at his best in a given scenario with the kind of earnest emphasis that is an entirely likeable quality in a Celtics fan, even if it's not tethered to reality at all.

If Rondo's got the ball in his hands and no one is willing to react to him as a scoring threat -- particularly if he's playing under Stevens' atrocious attempt at an offense -- then he's going to be ineffective, because his playmaking ability will be reduced. We know he's going to be ball dominant (sorry, 'primary shot creator'), because that's who he is as a player. Whether or not he'll be at his best in that role with this team, when he's not surrounded by particularly good players, is what's in doubt. That's not controversial, at all.

He is going to be our best player, for sure. He was our best player last year. Our team sucked last year. Our team sucks this year. QED.

I happen to be of the opinion that surrounding Rondo with four capable three point shooters in the starting lineup could prove to be a fruitful strategy for coach Stevens and our Celtics. 

I may have gotten this part wrong, but I was under the impression that one of the reasons that chambers didn't think the three point shooting strategy would be effective is because we lacked quality "drive and dish" players. 

I submit that Rondo is the ultimate drive and dish player.  It's his strength, offensively.  I don't think it's all that far-fetched to believe that having capable three point shooters at every other position could open up the lanes for Rondo do be able to do what he does best--yes, I'm being repetitive--that is, drive and dish.

Again, though, you are going to have to clarify and attempt to be more specific in explaining what you mean by a phrase like "no one is willing to react to him as a scoring threat." 

I know you are not saying that if Rondo has constant driving lanes into the paint that the defenses are just going to completely ignore him as he's not a "scorer."  If that were the case, even a non-scorer like Rondo would score on more or less every possession.

So, I still don't know exactly what you're saying about the basketball aspect of the discussion.  I am aware, however, that you consistently attempt to use my optimism as an argument against any points I try to make in an "everybody knows we are going to suck" kind of way, even if some of the points I am trying to make may have some validity. 

One point that I do agree on is that whether or not Rondo is going to be at his best with this team is still very much in doubt.  However, doubt doesn't preclude positive results as a possibility.  It simply leaves them in doubt.  Despite my dogged optimism, sure even I have my doubts, but I do see some possibility for this team to be more competitive than most are giving them credit for.  And I'm trying to look for some ways that they might be able to reach those goals.   

[chambers]

Arturo in particular is a genius...For those criticizing Arturo...Anyway, Arturo is of the same opinion as me

go figure. 

lol Arturo being the genius and me being the 'geenus'. The fan of the genius.

[Csfan1984]

So they are saying there's a chance.

Alllright!

[chambers]

Chambers,

You keep referring to the notion that we won't have enough dribble penetration to make the strategy of spacing the floor with 3 point shooters work. 

It confounds me how you consistently ignore the fact that we have one of the best drive and dish players in the game, who is going to be running the show from day one or fairly close to day one.

I consistently ignore that fact of Rondo's dribble drive game?
Hang on I'm pretty sure I'm the one defending Rondo and using your 2012 ECF as an example of how putting two elite jumpshooting big men and multiple three point shooters around him and Pierce was a the entire reason we came so close to beating the Heat.
We were kinda lucky that those jumpshooting bigs were the two best in the NBA, and the other wing player was an NBA finals MVP/All Star with his own elite dribble penetration and shot creation ability. What also doesn't hurt was Rondo averaging 21 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds per game in that series. He also shot 30% from three, 70% from the line and 50% from the field- aka god like.

Now if we had that Rondo every night, then well I'd be more optimistic. But he won't play like that every night because he can't maintain that level, and his body couldn't handle it either.
But having one player with elite dribble drive skills (who can't shoot a three in a three point shooting system) is much easier to guard than having multiple dribble drive threats and a HOF big man standing at the elbow or in the low post ala the Spurs or the 2012 Celtics.

Rondo does better with shooters. Now granted he has a few on this team- but he does not have the support of multiple scoring threats around him, nor the experience of his former team mates.

I don't think it's crazy for me to say that this team can't sustain 36% shooting on 29 shots a game- and that's what everyone is frothing at the mouth over like we've uncovered some hidden jewel in the search for NBA title treasure.

Mass three point shooting teams don't particularly do that well in the NBA- even those with superstars and experienced veterans.

[Celtics18]

Chambers,

You keep referring to the notion that we won't have enough dribble penetration to make the strategy of spacing the floor with 3 point shooters work. 

It confounds me how you consistently ignore the fact that we have one of the best drive and dish players in the game, who is going to be running the show from day one or fairly close to day one.

I consistently ignore that fact of Rondo's dribble drive game?
Hang on I'm pretty sure I'm the one defending Rondo and using your 2012 ECF as an example of how putting two elite jumpshooting big men and multiple three point shooters around him and Pierce was a the entire reason we came so close to beating the Heat.
We were kinda lucky that those jumpshooting bigs were the two best in the NBA, and the other wing player was an NBA finals MVP/All Star with his own elite dribble penetration and shot creation ability. What also doesn't hurt was Rondo averaging 21 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds per game in that series. He also shot 30% from three, 70% from the line and 50% from the field- aka god like.

Now if we had that Rondo every night, then well I'd be more optimistic. But he won't play like that every night because he can't maintain that level, and his body couldn't handle it either.
But having one player with elite dribble drive skills (who can't shoot a three in a three point shooting system) is much easier to guard than having multiple dribble drive threats and a HOF big man standing at the elbow or in the low post ala the Spurs or the 2012 Celtics.

Rondo does better with shooters. Now granted he has a few on this team- but he does not have the support of multiple scoring threats around him, nor the experience of his former team mates.

I don't think it's crazy for me to say that this team can't sustain 36% shooting on 29 shots a game- and that's what everyone is frothing at the mouth over like we've uncovered some hidden jewel in the search for NBA title treasure.

Mass three point shooting teams don't particularly do that well in the NBA- even those with superstars and experienced veterans.

Well, Rondo is excellent at driving the lane, but we have some others who I think are decent at that skill.  I'm thinking specifically of Evan Turner and (presumably) Marcus Smart. 

Sorry if I misread your post.  I got the impression that you were downplaying Rondo's penetration skills to further your point about how bad we would be.  Apparently that wasn't your intention.

My mistake. 

[chambers]

Chambers,

You keep referring to the notion that we won't have enough dribble penetration to make the strategy of spacing the floor with 3 point shooters work. 

It confounds me how you consistently ignore the fact that we have one of the best drive and dish players in the game, who is going to be running the show from day one or fairly close to day one.

I consistently ignore that fact of Rondo's dribble drive game?
Hang on I'm pretty sure I'm the one defending Rondo and using your 2012 ECF as an example of how putting two elite jumpshooting big men and multiple three point shooters around him and Pierce was a the entire reason we came so close to beating the Heat.
We were kinda lucky that those jumpshooting bigs were the two best in the NBA, and the other wing player was an NBA finals MVP/All Star with his own elite dribble penetration and shot creation ability. What also doesn't hurt was Rondo averaging 21 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds per game in that series. He also shot 30% from three, 70% from the line and 50% from the field- aka god like.

Now if we had that Rondo every night, then well I'd be more optimistic. But he won't play like that every night because he can't maintain that level, and his body couldn't handle it either.
But having one player with elite dribble drive skills (who can't shoot a three in a three point shooting system) is much easier to guard than having multiple dribble drive threats and a HOF big man standing at the elbow or in the low post ala the Spurs or the 2012 Celtics.

Rondo does better with shooters. Now granted he has a few on this team- but he does not have the support of multiple scoring threats around him, nor the experience of his former team mates.

I don't think it's crazy for me to say that this team can't sustain 36% shooting on 29 shots a game- and that's what everyone is frothing at the mouth over like we've uncovered some hidden jewel in the search for NBA title treasure.

Mass three point shooting teams don't particularly do that well in the NBA- even those with superstars and experienced veterans.

Well, Rondo is excellent at driving the lane, but we have some others who I think are decent at that skill.  I'm thinking specifically of Evan Turner and (presumably) Marcus Smart. 

Sorry if I misread your post.  I got the impression that you were downplaying Rondo's penetration skills to further your point about how bad we would be.  Apparently that wasn't your intention.

My mistake.

We are on the same page regarding Rondo.
Don't apologise- this is a forum where we write and read (interpret) the written word in completely different ways. You bring up some important points and I think you, myself and DoS all understand how good Rondo is at the penetration game. Without Rondo this team would be arguably the 2nd worst in the NBA.
I'm also eager to see how Rondo goes in this system of ball movement. His Big 3 days revolved around a lot 'pounding' while he waited for shooters or bigs to come off picks and sets- this system utilises a lot less point guard dominance on the ball and exploits the inability to guard the paint and the three point line at the same time- basically if you move the ball enough and coax defenders out to guard the perimeter threat, then eventually you'll find a break in the defensive chain which you can exploit. They did this extremely well in the off season and that was without Rondo.

My fear is that people are putting too much stock in a simple basketball theory that punishes summer league and preseason teams with no defensive continuity and gives us multiple wide open 3 point shots.
I just don't know if our number one playmaker on his own can overcome the weaknesses (that I think) we have.
They are priming Smart with the 3 point shot so I can see Smart and Rondo becoming a tandem as Smart will hopefully become the elite version of Avery Bradley with ball handling/ penetration ability we've always wanted.

I actually believe now that if we keep Rondo and Smart's 3 point shot gets up around 35%, and Bradley's shooting doesn't digress, then Bradley will be traded at some stage around the same time that Rondo extends.

I'm excited for the development of the three point shot this season either way.