Author Topic: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)  (Read 187285 times)

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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #90 on: September 12, 2013, 03:53:02 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #91 on: September 12, 2013, 04:02:13 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Here's a a simple, but true, mathematical inequality for you guys:  LeBron>(KG+Horford)

Scoring wise? Maybe.

Rebounding wise? No.

PER, WS, and other quantifiable stats-wise, I'm skeptical.
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #92 on: September 12, 2013, 04:04:34 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #93 on: September 12, 2013, 04:06:50 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
Rim protection is not about blocked shots.

Horford isn't in the same class defensively as KG, especially at the C position.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #94 on: September 12, 2013, 04:09:41 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Here's a a simple, but true, mathematical inequality for you guys:  LeBron>(KG+Horford)

Scoring wise? Maybe.

Rebounding wise? No.

PER, WS, and other quantifiable stats-wise, I'm skeptical.
EWA he is (based on PER)

WS/48 too

Also RAPM LBJ is a +10, Horford is +1.7 and KG is +4.1

Wins Produced he is as well.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #95 on: September 12, 2013, 04:10:26 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.

Yup, KG averaged 1.0 blocks and Horford 0.8 blocks in the playoffs last year.  Only getting 2 blocks from your starting frontcourt is kinda scary.

On the other hand Jordan averaged 1.7 blocks with Ibaka averaging 3.0 blocks in the playoffs last year.  Even LeBron averaged 0.8 blocks.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #96 on: September 12, 2013, 04:12:18 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
Rim protection is not about blocked shots.

Horford isn't in the same class defensively as KG, especially at the C position.

So you're knocking us for having *only one* defensive player of a generation? Tough crowd. :P

KG will play 35 minutes in this series. And he can handle that with all his rest from the regular season.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2013, 04:20:15 PM by AB_Celtic »

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #97 on: September 12, 2013, 04:17:18 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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I think KG will need to be on the court closer to 40 minutes than 30. He's their only rim protector.

Horford averaged just as many blocks as KG last year.
Rim protection is not about blocked shots.

Horford isn't in the same class defensively as KG, especially at the C position.

Is it about rebounding, then? Because Horford's ORR is greater than Garnett's, and their DRR is roughly equivalent.

You're right, though: Garnett is in another class defensively. That's why I love the tandem with Horford.
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #98 on: September 12, 2013, 04:18:49 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I don't like all of the decisions Minnesota made in the draft (trading Taj Gibson! Why oh why?!?!?), but one thing they deserve a lot of credit for is drafting a team of players in their primes. Their range of outcomes is very small because the odds of injury and season-over-season decline affecting the performance of their young, durable roster is relatively quite low.

Cleveland is far more exposed to decline.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #99 on: September 12, 2013, 04:23:45 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Meh, I don't KG is inherently any greater of a risk to miss the playoffs or be limited in the Finals than any other player.  Barring a severe injury, which can happen to any player at any age, I don't think it's is that big of a consideration.  That is more of a regular season issue.

KG has played plenty in the playoffs the last few years.  I don't think the body of evidence is there, to suggest he won't be able to do the same this year.

I guess it is possible he simply sees a decline in his play due to age though.  How much is the question.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #100 on: September 12, 2013, 04:24:15 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I don't like all of the decisions Minnesota made in the draft (trading Taj Gibson! Why oh why?!?!?), but one thing they deserve a lot of credit for is drafting a team of players in their primes. Their range of outcomes is very small because the odds of injury and season-over-season decline affecting the performance of their young, durable roster is relatively quite low.

Cleveland is far more exposed to decline.

But isn't this against the general operating principle of this exercise? I thought we were discounting injuries completely. I know I have.

KG's also on a minutes regimen during the regular season, and getting days off in between during the playoffs. Cleveland has advanced thus far in the playoffs. Do KG's wheels suddenly fall off once he reaches the Finals?
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Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #101 on: September 12, 2013, 04:28:31 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Guys, I know this is hard. We're Celtics fans, but you have to at least acknowledge the possibilities that

(1) KG might not be ambulatory for the playoffs

and

(2) KG playing 30 (or 40) minutes in next year's finals might not be above replacement level.

if you acknowledge the possibilities, then the next step is to try to be rational about the probabilities.

I don't like all of the decisions Minnesota made in the draft (trading Taj Gibson! Why oh why?!?!?), but one thing they deserve a lot of credit for is drafting a team of players in their primes. Their range of outcomes is very small because the odds of injury and season-over-season decline affecting the performance of their young, durable roster is relatively quite low.

Cleveland is far more exposed to decline.

But isn't this against the general operating principle of this exercise? I thought we were discounting injuries completely. I know I have.


Well, I have certainly considered injuries in this game.  I don't see anywhere in the rules that explicitly states not to.  Why shouldn't we?

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #102 on: September 12, 2013, 04:29:08 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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TPs to both KGK and Lucky. KG is old, yes, but he has never had as much rest in a regular season as he did in this exercise. He sat out one out of every five games guys.

Expect a fully healthy, ratchet-it-up-a-level-because-it's-the-playoffs Garnett in this series.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #103 on: September 12, 2013, 04:30:31 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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But isn't this against the general operating principle of this exercise? I thought we were discounting injuries completely. I know I have.

KG's also on a minutes regimen during the regular season, and getting days off in between during the playoffs. Cleveland has advanced thus far in the playoffs. Do KG's wheels suddenly fall off once he reaches the Finals?

That is a very interesting point. If Cleveland's arrival in the finals means we should assume a priori that KG is being KG, then I absolutely withdraw all of this argument. I am certainly not trying to make the point that KG will suffer a sudden decline during the actual finals series itself.

I didn't take the rules that way.

Re: 2013 CB Draft Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Cleveland(3)
« Reply #104 on: September 12, 2013, 04:32:08 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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TPs to both KGK and Lucky. KG is old, yes, but he has never had as much rest in a regular season as he did in this exercise. He sat out one out of every five games guys.

Expect a fully healthy, ratchet-it-up-a-level-because-it's-the-playoffs Garnett in this series.

Look at you campaigning...