Trubisky went ahead of Mahomes and Watson in 2017, with DeShone Kizer going in the second round. Mayfield and Darnold went ahead of Josh Allen in 2018 (Josh Rosen was first round pick that year too). Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019. 2020 was a good year (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love) but then 2021 was not (Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields). Kenny Pickett in 2022. 2023 may turn out to be a good draft (Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson)
That is 23 first round QBs since 2017. How many of them are NFL starter level players, 11 or 12? So about a 50-50 hit rate. That is a lot of uncertainty for a #3 pick. Yes, you have to take your shot at a QB if you get a high pick. But to think that you know that Daniels or Williams is absolutely going to be better than Maye or McCarthy is simply fool's gold. The Pats will take a QB, I don't doubt that or second guess that. But history shows that it is very hard to predict which QBs are going to be good.