Jaylen's impending Free Agency could resemble the OKC Harden dilemma

[Muzzy66]

Just a reminder to people concerned about Brown’s “lack of growth” or “regressions” from year 2 to year 3.  In addition to the tumult of finding his role early in the season, he was playing with an injured hand for much of November and through December. 

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2018/12/boston-celtics-jaylen-browns-hand-injury-has-been-bothering-him-for-a-month-and-a-half.html

From January through the end of the season, he shot 39% from 3, looking much more like the player we expected after the 2017-2018 season, than he did from October to December when he shot 28% from 3, with his 2-point percentage also rising a little bit, from 51% to 54%.  On the defensive side, his steals/36 increased by 40% from Oct-Dec to Jan-April.

Don’t underestimate the role that his injury had in forming your opinions of his play last year.  It wasn’t the only thing going on, but since it didn’t cost him time on the court, it’s easy to forget it was bothering him for quite some time.

It's always easy to find excuses if you really want to, but facts are the facts - and the facts are that Brown just hasn't shown a whole lot of development from Year 2 to 3 despite having a pretty significant role.

In fact I'd argue that in some areas (particularly defense) he actually took a step back.

That's not to say he can't take a big step next year, or that he won't.  Not by any means.  I'm merely pointing out that he hasn't shown any evidence YET of being anything more then a good solid starter.  He still has a number of areas to his game that, three years on, remain significant weaknesses.

- His shot is above average, but is not standout (nor is it very consistent) 
- His ball handling ability is extremely limited, good enough to get by as a wing, but holds him back from effectively playing the 2 guard IMHO
- His rebounding is really on about average for an NBA SF, especially one with his strength and athleticism
- His passing ability is still limited
- His decision making is still questionable, as I still see him often putting his head down and driving blindly into traffic, then not knowing what to do next
- His defense has been very good in stretches, really poor in other stretches; ability is there but nowhere near consistent enough
- His ability to get to the line, initially one of his big strengths, has shown steady decline
- His ability to crate offense for himself is pretty limited; take away his drive to the basket and he can really only score via spot up jumpers off teammate assists

Very good player who could develop into an excellent player, but I still see too many limitations and that prevents me from being able to see him as the "future all star" that many seem to believe he is. 

[Muzzy66]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

Year 3 to Year 3. Jimmy had already shown more passing chops and ball-handling ability at that point.

Better passing/handling is the low hanging fruit for both Jaylen and Jayson to improve upon.

Butler was also already a significantly better defensive player then Brown at this point in his career.  Butler made a name for himself defensively before anything else, and that defense effectively bought him the minutes to show what else he could do.  Brown has shown flashes of being a quality defender but nowhere near Butler's level and nowhere near the consistency.

Butler also entered the NBA at 22, which is Jaylen’s current age, so he should have been more physically ready to defend early in his career.

In most cases that argument would make sense, but in Brown's case not so much - since one of the biggest things Brown had going for him as a prospect was that he came in to the league with an NBA ready body.  He was already a good 6'7" / 225lbs when he played his first NBA game, and he was every bit as strong and athletic as Butler was when he played his first NBA game.

[vjcsmoke]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

[Muzzy66]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

[mmmmm]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Yeah, i always find it bizarre when people say a player’s “floor” is significantly better than where they are now multiple all-star player. No. The “floor” is that he doesnt improve from where he is now. Not all players improve. I really hope he does, and he definitely can, but he took a step back last year, has some flaws, and is not guaranteed to be worth the max.

Brown "took a step back" at the very start of the season ... because he had an injured hand.  It's useful to look at his month-by-month splits to see that, once he was past that injury, he actually took a distinct step forward, from the end of November onward, he improved significantly on most of his metrics over his prior two seasons.

Here are his scoring efficiency splits:

Brown 2018-19 splits
Month (games) TS%
Oct (7)       .451
Nov (12)      .477
Dec (12)      .580
Jan (15)      .589
Feb (11)      .523
Mar (15)      .592
Apr (2)       .592

[mmmmm]

Brown's floor is not Butler. He hasn't shown that level of ball skill and passing yet.

I do think he can get there, but that isn't his floor.

Are you Comparing 3rd year Butler to 3rd Year Brown  or 3yr Brown to 9th year Butler?

Year 3 to Year 3. Jimmy had already shown more passing chops and ball-handling ability at that point.

Better passing/handling is the low hanging fruit for both Jaylen and Jayson to improve upon.

Butler was also already a significantly better defensive player then Brown at this point in his career.  Butler made a name for himself defensively before anything else, and that defense effectively bought him the minutes to show what else he could do.  Brown has shown flashes of being a quality defender but nowhere near Butler's level and nowhere near the consistency.

Butler also entered the NBA at 22, which is Jaylen’s current age, so he should have been more physically ready to defend early in his career.

In most cases that argument would make sense, but in Brown's case not so much - since one of the biggest things Brown had going for him as a prospect was that he came in to the league with an NBA ready body.  He was already a good 6'7" / 225lbs when he played his first NBA game, and he was every bit as strong and athletic as Butler was when he played his first NBA game.

Uh?  Are you trying to say that age and the experience learned from years 20-21 of a young player's life aren't relevant?   Saltlover's point isn't just about physical growth.  Butler entered the NBA after having two full additional seasons of development at Marquette.

Jimmy Butler's age 22 season was his rookie season.  He played just 359 minutes that year, plus another 4 minutes in the playoffs.

Jaylen Brown's age 22 season was this last year, his 3rd in the NBA.  He played 1913 minutes plus another 274 (very effective) minutes in the playoffs.

[mmmmm]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

[Sophomore]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

[nickagneta]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

For someone who is seeing all the faults with Brown, you sure seemed to gloss over the faults and almost complete lack of development from Smart. Smart is virtually the same player he was.

Do you know what separated Smart last season from all his other season's? 19 made threes more and he started. He hit one three point shot more every other game than past years. That's it. He misses those 19 shots and he is back to being a 37-38% shooter from the field and 30% shooter from three. He misses those shots and his stats are virtually the same for every year he was here.

And, I am convinced, he only got the All-Defense recognition because he started. His defense didn't suddenly get better, it just got nationally recognized because he was starting.

Smart had a better year last year, but to think he has had any type of breakout year is just false. Except for those 19 threes, he had the exact same year as every other, and given that there will be less scorers on the team this year, I wouldn't guarantee that Smart's decision making on which threes to take would be fixed to the point that he doesn't return to being the 37% shooter from the field and 29-30% shooter from 3.

[greenrunsdeep41]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

For someone who is seeing all the faults with Brown, you sure seemed to gloss over the faults and almost complete lack of development from Smart. Smart is virtually the same player he was.

Do you know what separated Smart last season from all his other season's? 19 made threes more and he started. He hit one three point shot more every other game than past years. That's it. He misses those 19 shots and he is back to being a 37-38% shooter from the field and 30% shooter from three. He misses those shots and his stats are virtually the same for every year he was here.

And, I am convinced, he only got the All-Defense recognition because he started. His defense didn't suddenly get better, it just got nationally recognized because he was starting.

Smart had a better year last year, but to think he has had any type of breakout year is just false. Except for those 19 threes, he had the exact same year as every other, and given that there will be less scorers on the team this year, I wouldn't guarantee that Smart's decision making on which threes to take would be fixed to the point that he doesn't return to being the 37% shooter from the field and 29-30% shooter from 3.

Okay, so I understand the point you’re trying to make but it is irrational because you could say the opposite in any case.

To say smart is this minus this sample size, which happened in reality, to try to establish your point can’t be used if you’re siting statistics to make your argument.  You started from a conclusion and then worked backwards against a statistical trend minus the math that contradicts your central point to make the initial argument work.

That is a argumentative and mathematical no no because your removing nuance and ignoring context.

[nickagneta]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

For someone who is seeing all the faults with Brown, you sure seemed to gloss over the faults and almost complete lack of development from Smart. Smart is virtually the same player he was.

Do you know what separated Smart last season from all his other season's? 19 made threes more and he started. He hit one three point shot more every other game than past years. That's it. He misses those 19 shots and he is back to being a 37-38% shooter from the field and 30% shooter from three. He misses those shots and his stats are virtually the same for every year he was here.

And, I am convinced, he only got the All-Defense recognition because he started. His defense didn't suddenly get better, it just got nationally recognized because he was starting.

Smart had a better year last year, but to think he has had any type of breakout year is just false. Except for those 19 threes, he had the exact same year as every other, and given that there will be less scorers on the team this year, I wouldn't guarantee that Smart's decision making on which threes to take would be fixed to the point that he doesn't return to being the 37% shooter from the field and 29-30% shooter from 3.

Okay, so I understand the point you’re trying to make but it is irrational because you could say the opposite in any case.

To say smart is this minus this sample size, which happened in reality, to try to establish your point can’t be used if you’re siting statistics to make your argument.  You started from a conclusion and then worked backwards against a statistical trend minus the math that contradicts your central point to make the initial argument work.

That is a argumentative and mathematical no no because your removing nuance and ignoring context.

Yeah, I am not getting what you are trying to communicate here as most of what you are trying to communicate is just not true.

First, I never said Smart was a minus. Not sure where you are getting that. Also, what the hell is the opposite of the case I am trying to make that you discuss that could be made using my methodology?

I didn't start from a conclusion and work backward. And which statistical trend did I go against?

The point of mine is Smart is pretty much the same player he has always been and didn't take some jump last year. There is little statistical evidence to point to Smart taking a major jump. Just about any increase from a normal variance can be attributed to one thing, 19 made 3 pointers. That is really it.

And a one year increase is not a statistical trend, if that is what you meant by that. The trend was Smart averaging the numbers he did his first four years. The outlier in this extremely small sample size of years played, was last year and again, it was caused by Smart making 1 extra three pointer every other game.

If Smart comes out this year and shoots 37% or greater from three and 42% or better from the field, great! I think after a couple years, we might be able to conclude he developed a more reliable shot. But if he returns to being a 37% from the field and 29% from three guy, then the abberation is last year and that makes Smart, about the same player he was when he came into the league.

The reason I even expanded on all this Smart stuff was to show Sophomore that using Smart as an example of someone who developed in his fifth year signals that he has increased more than slightly in development is rather flawed. The point was to show, Smart is very much the same player he has always been except for a possible slight anomaly in last year's three point shooting.

[ManUp]

Jaylen is a high-efficiency two-way wing who doesn't need the ball to score.  He averaged 13 points in 25 minutes which is great, but what would he average with another 8-10 minutes? If he didn't add a single skill and only refined what he does now to a higher level he'd be a Khris Middleton level player. With Jaylen's ability and work ethic we should not be betting against him. His development arc is looking a lot like Gordon Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

[Sophomore]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

For someone who is seeing all the faults with Brown, you sure seemed to gloss over the faults and almost complete lack of development from Smart. Smart is virtually the same player he was.

Do you know what separated Smart last season from all his other season's? 19 made threes more and he started. He hit one three point shot more every other game than past years. That's it. He misses those 19 shots and he is back to being a 37-38% shooter from the field and 30% shooter from three. He misses those shots and his stats are virtually the same for every year he was here.

And, I am convinced, he only got the All-Defense recognition because he started. His defense didn't suddenly get better, it just got nationally recognized because he was starting.

Smart had a better year last year, but to think he has had any type of breakout year is just false. Except for those 19 threes, he had the exact same year as every other, and given that there will be less scorers on the team this year, I wouldn't guarantee that Smart's decision making on which threes to take would be fixed to the point that he doesn't return to being the 37% shooter from the field and 29-30% shooter from 3.

Last year Smart hit 126 out of 346 3PA, which was good for 36.4%.

The year before that he shot 30.1%. If he'd taken the same 346 attempts, that would have meant connecting on 104 of them - a difference of 22 made baskets. Maybe that doesn't mean much to you, but you have to remember the denominator - which is 346 shots. That's a bunch more misses out of that number of attempts. Here's another way to look at it. What if we considered what Marcus's results would look like if he hit 22 more threes instead of 22 fewer. In that case, he would have been a 43% three-point shooter - better than Buddy Hield or Steph Curry. Those extra 22 hits mean a lot.

As for how far he's come, let's look back on the kind of shooter he was in his first and second year. In his first year in the league he connected on only 25.3% of his 3PAs and shot a whole bunch of them - 241. That was historically bad. If he'd hit at that rate last year he'd have connected on 87 (rounding up), not 126. To me, that is a *huge* difference.

The encouraging thing is that he's climbed a little each year - 25% - 28% - 30% - 36.4% - while slowly increasing the number of 3s he takes - from 5 attempts/36 minutes to 5.7 attempts last year. It's probably not a fluke, and the difference from start to finish is huge - and if we are lucky he isn't done growing.

I won't go into his ballhandling, because I'm not sure when that happened, but last year he was easily the second best PG on the team, well ahead of Rozier. I like his defense, and I'm not sure why you'd suggest he didn't earn that all-NBA mention.

[td450]

Maturity is more than muscles.  Give Brown a chance to develop this year and see what the year brings.  Tatum and Brown have the highest ceilings for development outside of our rookies.

I don't disagree at all - and from what i've seen the most common "break out" time for young prospects is usually their fourth year.  Hopefully that means Brown will be a totally different animal this season.   

But then at the same time we have ha guys like Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger in the past who seemed like highly promising players who just never really DID break out.  They kinda remained the same player and just improved slightly over time. 

I'm hoping Brown is the former rather then the latter.

None of those other guys you just mentioned was a top 3 pick in their draft and one of the clearly elite athletes of their draft.  Jaylen Brown was the #3 pick for legit reasons.   

Sullinger, if he had not had weight and back problems, might have been that guy. He was expected to be a top 5 pick right up until word got out about his back issues.   But he did have those issues.  And if he did not he would never have fallen in the draft to us.

I'm not sure what you mean about Smart only improving slightly over time.  I agree he's not a max player, but I'm not sure he ever projected that way, and in year 5 he made a really important leap - going from a historically bad three-point shooter to an above-average three-point shooter. Adding that skill to his all-NBA caliber defense and capable ball-handling as a second PG is a very nice improvement.

Maybe the question with Brown is what kind of improvement he can make. I think there's a fairly good history of players being able to add 3-point shooting to their game after a few years of consistent practice, especially if they were already good free-throw shooters - the kind of improvement Smart made.  It's relatively low-hanging fruit. Brown is already a pretty good 3-point shooter when he's stationary. Maybe he can add shooting on the move or coming off a pick; maybe he can really perfect that post game that could be nearly unguardable for all but the longest, most athletic wings.

I'm a little more skeptical he can add what we'd really like to see, which is ability to create off the dribble. His handle is still loose and he's heavily right-hand dominant; he doesn't have much wiggle or change of pace. Worse, he hasn't shown much ability to anticipate the defense's reaction, which means he doesn't create much for his teammates; if he can beat his man and the defense rotates to pick him up he has trouble finding a teammate to pass to. My sense - which I can't defend in detail - is that these skills are harder to add.

Maybe his ceiling is plus defender, and on offense plus catch-and-shoot player with one or two more offensive skills - ideally, a post move and shooting on a curl or on the move. That wouldn't be bad, and *maybe* worth a max if he's the third option on offense. If he can actually add the other stuff that's harder to develop, I think he'll earn his max.

For someone who is seeing all the faults with Brown, you sure seemed to gloss over the faults and almost complete lack of development from Smart. Smart is virtually the same player he was.

Do you know what separated Smart last season from all his other season's? 19 made threes more and he started. He hit one three point shot more every other game than past years. That's it. He misses those 19 shots and he is back to being a 37-38% shooter from the field and 30% shooter from three. He misses those shots and his stats are virtually the same for every year he was here.

And, I am convinced, he only got the All-Defense recognition because he started. His defense didn't suddenly get better, it just got nationally recognized because he was starting.

Smart had a better year last year, but to think he has had any type of breakout year is just false. Except for those 19 threes, he had the exact same year as every other, and given that there will be less scorers on the team this year, I wouldn't guarantee that Smart's decision making on which threes to take would be fixed to the point that he doesn't return to being the 37% shooter from the field and 29-30% shooter from 3.

Last year Smart hit 126 out of 346 3PA, which was good for 36.4%.

The year before that he shot 30.1%. If he'd taken the same 346 attempts, that would have meant connecting on 104 of them - a difference of 22 made baskets. Maybe that doesn't mean much to you, but you have to remember the denominator - which is 346 shots. That's a bunch more misses out of that number of attempts. Here's another way to look at it. What if we considered what Marcus's results would look like if he hit 22 more threes instead of 22 fewer. In that case, he would have been a 43% three-point shooter - better than Buddy Hield or Steph Curry. Those extra 22 hits mean a lot.

As for how far he's come, let's look back on the kind of shooter he was in his first and second year. In his first year in the league he connected on only 25.3% of his 3PAs and shot a whole bunch of them - 241. That was historically bad. If he'd hit at that rate last year he'd have connected on 87 (rounding up), not 126. To me, that is a *huge* difference.

The encouraging thing is that he's climbed a little each year - 25% - 28% - 30% - 36.4% - while slowly increasing the number of 3s he takes - from 5 attempts/36 minutes to 5.7 attempts last year. It's probably not a fluke, and the difference from start to finish is huge - and if we are lucky he isn't done growing.

I won't go into his ballhandling, because I'm not sure when that happened, but last year he was easily the second best PG on the team, well ahead of Rozier. I like his defense, and I'm not sure why you'd suggest he didn't earn that all-NBA mention.

You seem to be missing Marcus's first year, where he shot .335 for 3 pt shots.

He started most of last year, and cut his 2 pt shots considerably. He was the 5th option by a wide margin, and everyone cheated off him, for good reason. To his credit, he showed more discretion, and made a decent percentage of his shots, but he was left open consistently.

If you make him play with the second unit, he will likely digress, because other than posting up smaller guys, he just can't create space for himself.

I hope he can shoot 3's well again, because it makes a big difference in his impact. But I don't expect he will get as many easy looks as last year. He'll play less with the starters, and Horford is gone. I'm guessing his percentage will go down some, not up.

[footey]

Understand that ATL has max cap space available next season.

Would not be surprised if they make a MAX offer to hometown boy JB, especially now that Draymond Green has extended with GSW. Brown would fit in well with that team too.