I think it should come down to who plays better this season. It's time for everyone to show what their made of, and who's a better long-term fit for the Celts. Out of Hayward, Brown and Tatum, someone will be the odd man out. It's going to be redundant and a waste of money to sign 3 small forwards long-term.
If Brown continues his upswing from last season and can improve his free-throw shooting, then he should be a keeper.
It's up to Stevens and Ainge to evaluate who the better players are and deal off the guy who the team can do without.
It's also possible only one remains and the other 2 get dealt.
It's hard to gauge what the end game is as far how the roster is constructed.
Bingo!
Hayward is Brad's boy.
Tatum is definitely a keeper.
So clearly Brown is the odd man out.
If the soon to be 30 year old & 30 mil a season Hayward goes through another 1/2 season and isn't significantly better than Brown, I don't see why Brown would 'clearly' be the odd man out. That just isn't logical.
I think you are over estimating the Brad-Gordon relationship's ability to influence Danny Ainge. If someone has to go, and I am NOT convinced that one of the three does, do you keep the improving 23 year old player for 20 mil or do you keep the 30 year old 30 mil player who might be by the time this team is seriously competing again. GH's contract is great for matching salary on another all-star-ish type player. Jaylen's not so much.
Again, no one has played a minute of the upcoming season and you are already saying Brown is the odd man out. You must have one outstanding 8-ball at home.
Reason why is very obvious.
Whether we like it or not, Brad is going to let Hayward play 30 minutes per game this coming season.
Last season some of the players complained about Brad giving Hayward special treatment.
I don't see why it's going to be different this coming season.
After all, the main reason why Hayward came to Boston is because of Brad Stevens.
Hayward would not have left Utah if not for Brad Stevens.
Also, Brown is not just going to cost 20m, it's going to be way more than just 20m per season.
It doesn't help the free-agent class next summer is weak.
That means Jaylen will be one of the top FAs next summer.
Jamal Murray got 34m per year.
Hield is about to get an extension.
A safe assumption would be Brown gets something in the middle of what Murray and Hield will get.
That's around 25-27m per year.
Jaylen needs to have a good start this season.
Celts can evaluate him from October to February.
If Jaylen is still with the Celts after the trade deadline then that means the Celts are willing to overpay for Jaylen in the summer of 2020.
I just don't get your logic. So what if Hayward plays 30 min+ a game? I mean he should, he is one of our best players. Jaylen will get 30 min+ a game as well as he is one of our best players. Neither of those facts have anything to do with who the C's Front Office might deal at the deadline. With Hayward's injury, less than ideal recovery, less than ideal production makes him just as likely to get moved as anyone. But more likely DA might not want to trade any of them at the deadline even if he was open to it because he doesn't get the offer he wants.
So in the other thread you are talking about how Jaylen is just a 'complimentary player' and how he will never be a major contributor and won't score enough to be a 1st or 2nd option (which I don't think you can come to that conclusion yet), but either way that is your opinion. So why would this 'complimentary player' be able to pull 25-27 million? If he isn't that good, why is anyone going to pay him that salary? Seriously. What team out there is going to pay max money to a 'complimentary player'? Smart to me is the textbook definition of a 'complimentary player' and what did he get from the C's? Between 12-14 mil a year.
The whole Brown is the odd man seems to be just your bias against a player you don't like for some reason. I don't even think it is for sure that one of JB / JT / GH gets moved.
Here are the playoff totals for the last two years for Tatum and Brown. All those points / rebounds and big game production from guys that were 22 and younger. It is going to take a haul for DA to trade either one. Brown doing almost identical production to Tatum despite being injured a couple games n the 2018 playoff run and doing it in less minutes overall. I don't see anyway that that player is 'clearly the odd man out'.
total playoff stats 2018 + 2019
Tatum - games-28, mpg-34.8, points-488, ppg-17.4, reb per game- 5.13, total fga - 371, total fg% - 46%
Brown - games-27, mpg-31.7, points-449, ppg-16.6, reb per game- 5.13, total fga - 353, total fg% - 47%
1. Regarding playing time, if Hayward and Tatum are going to get 30 minutes per game, or more, there will not be enough minutes for Jaylen to be happy.
2. Remember, Smart and Carsen will also get playing time at SG.
That means less minutes for Brown at the SG spot.
3. Only time Jaylen got to play a lot was when Hayward was out for the season.
When Hayward returned last season, Jaylen's minutes and shot attempts went down.
As far as I am concerned all of the bolded is pretty much incorrect imo.
1- more than enough minutes to go around with Brown, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, + whatever bench player backup: Semi, some to Theis, maybe (big maybe Grant Williams).
144 min total between those 4 + backup 4. Brown 32 min, Smart 28 min, Tatum 32 min, Hayward 32 min, backup 3-4 +20 min.
Mop up duty occasionally for Langford (behind Brown) + Carson Edwards (behind Kemba, Smart at 1, way behind Brown, Smart, Langford at the 2) Plus you know we are going to have injuries so those last two will probably play a bit...
2- Smart is going to be playing minutes at the backup point guard. How many we don't know, but there will be some. In my count above I was being really generous and giving all his minutes to one of the wing spots. 6'1" rookie Carsen Edwards isn't going to be taking many minutes away from wing player Brown if any.
3 - Jaylen after his rough start last year was averaging 26 min or so a game on a more veteran, stacked team last year and that was WITH GH back. GH at the same time averaged, you guessed it 26 MPG. So that statement that Jaylen's minutes went down because of Hayward just isn't true, just look at the stats. It was even more not true in the playoffs. Brown had 29.3 mpg against Indiana, and 31.6 mpg against the Bucks. Totally NOT what you were describing. Expect both Brown and Hayward to have their minutes increased.
I would also say that another reason Jaylen might get even more court time this year because (at least this summer for USA basketball) he has shown the ability to guard guys bigger than him consistently. That makes him even more versatile on def (guarding at least 2s, 3s, and 4s). Pretty much Brown and Smart are the only guys on the team that can consistently be trusted to do that.