2023 Draft Tiers

[CFAN38]

This year I am way behind where I usually am in terms of NBA draft research. I admittedly have researched the bigs and wings of this class much more than the guards. In the coming weeks I will tweak my tiers and I become more familiar with the guards but for now this is my first crack at draft tiers.

When I do tiers I place them in tiers with players I would rank evenly. Idea being that when the pick comes you pick the player from the highest tier and inside a tier a team would pick the best roster fit.

Tier            
1   1   Victor Wembanyama    France   C
            
2   2   Scoot Henderson    G League Ignite   PG
            
3   3   Brandon Miller    Alabama   SF
   4   Cam Whitmore    Villanova   SF
            
4   5   Ausar Thompson    Overtime Elite   SF
   6   Amen Thompson    Overtime Elite   SF
   7   Jarace Walker    Houston   PF
            
5   8   Anthony Black    Arkansas   PG
   9   Keyonte George    Baylor   SG
   10   Taylor Hendricks    UCF   SF
   11   Gradey Dick    Kansas   SF
   12   Bilal Coulibaly    France   SF
   13   Cason Wallace    Kentucky   PG
   14   Brice Sensabaugh    Ohio St.   SF
   15   Kris Murray    Iowa   SF
   16   Gregory Jackson    South Carolina   SF
            
            
6   17   Jalen Hood-Schifino    Indiana   PG
   18   Nick Smith Jr.    Arkansas   SG
   19   Jett Howard    Michigan   SG
   20   Leonard Miller    G League Ignite   SF
   21   Dereck Lively II    Duke   C
   22   Trayce Jackson-Davis    Indiana   C
   23   Kobe Bufkin    Michigan   SG
   24   Dariq Whitehead    Duke   SF
   25   Jordan Hawkins    UConn   SG
   26   Maxwell Lewis    Pepperdine   SF
            
            
7   27   James Nnaji    Barcelona   C
   28   Andre Jackson Jr.    UConn   SG
   29   Sidy Cissoko    G League Ignite   SG
   30   Jordan Walsh    Arkansas   SF
   31   Chris Livingston   Kentucky   SF
   32   Rayan Rupert    France   SF
   33   Keyontae Johnson    Kansas St.   SF
   34   Dillon Mitchell    Texas   SF
   35   Olivier-Maxence Prosper    Marquette   PF
   36   Brandin Podziemski    Santa Clara   SG
   37   Ben Sheppard    Belmont   SG
   38   Colby Jones    Xavier   SG
   39   Julian Phillips    Tennessee   SF
   40   Kobe Brown    Missouri   SF
   41   Terquavion Smith    NC State   SG
   42   Amari Bailey    UCLA   SG
   43   Mouhamed Gueye    Washington St.   C
   44   Emoni Bates    E. Michigan   SG
   45   Jaime Jaquez Jr.    UCLA   SG
 

[CFAN38]

Notes:

My Tier 7 needs to be broken up but for now I put it out as a large group.


For the Celtics I see three logical avenues.
1. Target a big to develop behind the current vets. Jackson-Davis is my favorite for this approach. I have also recently become very high on the idea of Leonard Miller as a Kevon Looney like 5 but this likely requires a trade up.
2. Draft a wing who can contribute early in his career. Lewis, K Johnson, Podziemski and C Jones would all be options.
3. Play the long game and target a developmental "predraft" wing. This class has a number of highly rated HS recruits who under-performed and could be available at 35. GG Jackson, Whitehead, Walsh, Livingston, Mitchell and Phillips all fit this mold. Cissoko is also an option but he maybe more NBA ready then the listed players.

I expect teams will very greatly in how they rank the players 8 through the mid 20s.

   

[gouki88]

It’s tricky, I’ve put in much less thought for the draft (tends to be the case when we’re competing / have no 1sts). But I think I will turn my eye a bit more thoroughly to the draft soon.

Hopefully we can hit on a 2nd

[knuckleballer]

It’s tricky, I’ve put in much less thought for the draft (tends to be the case when we’re competing / have no 1sts). But I think I will turn my eye a bit more thoroughly to the draft soon.

Hopefully we can hit on a 2nd

I’m wondering if we will trade Pritchard for another 2nd or maybe Pritchard and #35 to get into the 20’s.

[CFAN38]

It’s tricky, I’ve put in much less thought for the draft (tends to be the case when we’re competing / have no 1sts). But I think I will turn my eye a bit more thoroughly to the draft soon.

Hopefully we can hit on a 2nd

I’m wondering if we will trade Pritchard for another 2nd or maybe Pritchard and #35 to get into the 20’s.

I had the same though, with teams having 3 2-way deals and most players drafted after 40 getting 2-ways trading Pritchard for a pick in the 40s and a future 2nd could be decent value and a helpful future roster building piece. 

I think trading up will be tough but worth while for a big.

[CFAN38]

My final tiers before the draft

         

Tier             1   1   Victor Wembanyama    France   C              2   2   Scoot Henderson    G League Ignite   PG              3   3   Brandon Miller    Alabama   SF    4   Cam Whitmore    Villanova   SF              4   5   Ausar Thompson    Overtime Elite   SF    6   Amen Thompson    Overtime Elite   SF    7   Jarace Walker    Houston   PF              5   8   Anthony Black    Arkansas   PG    9   Bilal Coulibaly    France   SF    10   Taylor Hendricks    UCF   SF              6   11   Kris Murray    Iowa   SF    12   Cason Wallace    Kentucky   PG    13   Gradey Dick    Kansas   SF    14   Keyonte George    Baylor   SG    15   Nick Smith Jr.    Arkansas   SG    16   Leonard Miller    G League Ignite   C    17   Dereck Lively II    Duke   C    18   Gregory Jackson    South Carolina   SF              7   19   Jalen Hood-Schifino    Indiana   PG    20   Brice Sensabaugh    Ohio St.   SF    21   Jett Howard    Michigan   SG    22   Dariq Whitehead    Duke   SF    23   Trayce Jackson-Davis    Indiana   C    24   Kobe Bufkin    Michigan   SG    25   Jordan Hawkins    UConn   SG    26   Maxwell Lewis    Pepperdine   SF    27   Julian Phillips    Tennessee   SF                           8   28   James Nnaji    Barcelona   C    29   Nikola Djurisic   Serbia   SF    30   Noah Clowney    Alabama   C    31   Sidy Cissoko    G League Ignite   SG    32   Jordan Walsh    Arkansas   SF    33   Chris Livingston   Kentucky   SF    34   Rayan Rupert    France   SF    35   Keyontae Johnson    Kansas St.   SF              9   36   Andre Jackson Jr.    UConn   SG    37   Olivier-Maxence Prosper    Marquette   PF    38   Brandin Podziemski    Santa Clara   SG    39   Ben Sheppard    Belmont   SG    40   Colby Jones    Xavier   SG    41   Mouhamed Gueye    Washington St.   C    42   Kobe Brown    Missouri   SF    43   Amari Bailey    UCLA   SG    44   Marcus Sasser    Houston   SG    45   Isaiah Wong    Miami   SG              10   46   Terquavion Smith    NC State   SG    47   Bobi Klintman    Wake Forest   PF    48   Tristan Vukcevic    KK Partizan   C    49   Julian Strawther    Gonzaga   SG    50   Jaylen Clark    UCLA   SG    51   Emoni Bates    E. Michigan   SG    52   Jaime Jaquez Jr.    UCLA   SG    53   Adama Sanogo    UConn   PF    54   Landers Nolley 2   Cinn   SF    55   Jazian Gortman   OTE   PG

[Who]

My final tiers before the draft

         

Tier             1   1   Victor Wembanyama    France   C              2   2   Scoot Henderson    G League Ignite   PG              3   3   Brandon Miller    Alabama   SF    4   Cam Whitmore    Villanova   SF

What do you like about Cam Whitmore?

His stats look unimpressive. 12ppg in 27mpg. Alright number but not impressive. The shooting numbers dodgy. Good FG% (48%) but dodgy FT% (70%) and 3PT% (33%). Extremely low assist mumbers only 0.7apg. 1.6 turnovers. So two turnovers to every assist. Not good for a SF. 5rpg per game is solid.

What do you see him becoming in the NBA?

[Who]

I see some of the guys being compared to Cam Whitmore = Jaylen Brown, Corey Maggette, Miles Bridges, Ron Artest, Justice Winslow.

None of them had assist numbers as bad as Cam Whitmore. Does anyone know of any wing prospects who average only 0.7apg? Who played 28mpg (significant minutes) and averaged 0.7apg?

Jaylen = 2apg 28mpg
Miles Bridges = 2.1apg 32mpg
Maggette = 1.5apg 18mpg
Artest = 1.9apg 27mpg
Winslow = 2.1apg 29mpg

It is strange, right? Assist numbers that low?

27.7mpg 0.7apg 1.6 turnovers per game 12.5ppg

[Roy H.]

I always like these posts.  I know nothing about draft prospects in general.  Two non-lottery I like are Leonard Miller and Trayce Jackson-Davis.  I doubt very much either makes it to #35.

The mock draft sites had once projected Bilal Coulibaly in the second round, but now there's late lottery speculation, with our man CFan having him in the top-10.

[CFAN38]

My final tiers before the draft

         

Tier             1   1   Victor Wembanyama    France   C              2   2   Scoot Henderson    G League Ignite   PG              3   3   Brandon Miller    Alabama   SF    4   Cam Whitmore    Villanova   SF

What do you like about Cam Whitmore?

His stats look unimpressive. 12ppg in 27mpg. Alright number but not impressive. The shooting numbers dodgy. Good FG% (48%) but dodgy FT% (70%) and 3PT% (33%). Extremely low assist mumbers only 0.7apg. 1.6 turnovers. So two turnovers to every assist. Not good for a SF. 5rpg per game is solid.

What do you see him becoming in the NBA?

Whitmore is a year younger than Miller, the Thompson Twins, and Walker so that plays in his favor. Despite his young age he is clearly physically ready for the NBA. I'm also high on the fact that he lead team USA U18 at the American Championship and played really well at all pre-college show case games. Every time he is competing vs his piers he shines.

In general I think the league is trending towards the football framed prospects. Watching the current playoffs it shows us how valuable big strong switchable defenders are. In the more open NBA I see Cam as a highly switchable 3 level scorer. 

[Who]

I read that Cam Whitmore shot 40% on spot up 3s. It was his shooting off the dribble that sunk his 3PT%.

Apperently he has a bad shot selection. Prone to over-dribbling as well. Forcing iso. Used to be the go-to scorer but does not have the skill-level to do it at college level so makes a lot of bad decisions as a young freshman level player.

Edit: I am watching one of those Hoops Intellect (youtube channel) videos on Cam Whitmore. They confirm 40% but on only 45 attempts so small sample. His off the dribble 3s he shot 27.5% on 80 attempts.

[Who]

Reading about Cam Whitmore reminds me of Dennis Smith Jr in so far as 50% of what you read screams future All-Star while the other 50% is full of red flags and screams never gonna make it.

[Who]

Rudy Gay = 1.5apg 29mpg

Stanley Johnson is an interesting comp. As a low end outcome. 13.8ppg 6.5rpg 1.7apg vs 2.0 turnovers per game in 28mpg. SJ shots 37% on 114 threes at Arizona. Only 44.6% FG% though. 74% FT%.

Ooh, just heard an OG Anunoby comp. I looked up Anunoby's stats but he barely played as a freshman. Only 13.7mpg and 5ppg 0.5apg. Only 25mpg as a sophomore. That is surprisingly low. 11.1ppg and 1.4apg. Wow, OG only shot 52% at the FT line in two years of college.

Edit: Cam Whitmore had only 64 FTAs all season on 255 FGAs. Kind of a low FT rate. Only 1 in 4. Low for such a high end athlete with a lot of physical attributes.

Jarrace Walker another guy with a similarly low FT rate. Some concerns about his first step / explosiveness / ability to get by his defender. Unlike Cam Whitmore who has that explosiveness. But important in terms of Walker's upside.

[CFAN38]

Rudy Gay = 1.5apg 29mpg

Stanley Johnson is an interesting comp. As a low end outcome. 13.8ppg 6.5rpg 1.7apg vs 2.0 turnovers per game in 28mpg. SJ shots 37% on 114 threes at Arizona. Only 44.6% FG% though. 74% FT%.

Ooh, just heard an OG Anunoby comp. I looked up Anunoby's stats but he barely played as a freshman. Only 13.7mpg and 5ppg 0.5apg. Only 25mpg as a sophomore. That is surprisingly low. 11.1ppg and 1.4apg. Wow, OG only shot 52% at the FT line in two years of college.

Edit: Cam Whitmore had only 64 FTAs all season on 255 FGAs. Kind of a low FT rate. Only 1 in 4. Low for such a high end athlete with a lot of physical attributes.

Jarrace Walker another guy with a similarly low FT rate. Some concerns about his first step / explosiveness / ability to get by his defender. Unlike Cam Whitmore who has that explosiveness. But important in terms of Walker's upside.

Walker is an interesting prospect in that I think he will disappoint the team that drafts him if they expect him to be a star. He screams high end role player similar to what Aaron Gordan has developed into. His archetype will lead to winning basketball without averaging 20+ppg. 

[Who]

Not a like for like but I found another low assist player.

It is a PF who went on to a good career. John Collins had only 17 assists in 33 games his sophomore year for 0.5apg in 27mpg while putting up 19ppg and 10rpg.

I was looking at possible comps for Trayce Jackson Davis. He reminded me a bit of John Collins. Not as explosive an athlete but that type of highly productive PF who does great work in isolations in the low post and mid post. More ball-handling than J Collins. Collins learned to shoot the 3 in the NBA but shot none in college.

In John Collins 6 NBA seasons for his career he has averaged 1.5apg to 1.4 turnovers per game. You could live with that from your SF if Cam Whitmore did that. Almost 10 shot attempts (FGs + FTs) to each assist. Not good. But you could live with it.