Author Topic: 2017-18 Lakers Season Watch Thread (27-34, 10th Slot on 3/2)  (Read 224731 times)

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Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #315 on: November 02, 2017, 09:23:12 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I still think the Lakers pick will be conveying this year.  Granted, there are some other bad teams out there but LA is playing in the West which is loaded with better teams that will beat on them more frequently than the teams in the East.

Thing is, there's a big difference between the talent levels of the West bottom feeders and the other Western teams as opposed to the smaller difference in talent levels of the East bottom feeders and the other Eastern teams.   The crappy teams in the West beating the not-crappy teams is more of a stretch than in the East due to that smaller talent gap in the East.

West:
Only other teams that are close to the Lakers in terms of futility are Sacramento, Phoenix and Dallas.
- Lakers.  Team is underwhelming in terms of players.  Lopez is the big name but not producing near his Nets level.  Leading scorer is Clarkson at less than 15 points per game.  KCP is a longshot to become more than a defensive player.  the rest are young players who haven't proven anything.
- Sacramento has more talent but hasn't figured out how to get them to play together yet as evidenced by their destruction by the C's this week.  They should be able to finish with a similar record to the Lakers if not a bit better.
- Dallas has more talent but isn't performing as well as they should.  Dirk looks to have really dropped off in talent this season.  The way a number of people here were falling over themselves to sign Harrison Barnes to a max deal he should be performing like an all-star instead of the mediocre 3rd banana he is.  in the end, this team should have enough pieces to end up better than the Lakers but worst case should be a similar record.
- Phx also has more talent than the Lakers but they're underperforming as well.  I'm anticipating them to improve as the season progresses and leave the Lakers comfortably behind them in the standings.  they'll still have a crappy record due to being in the West but they're a better team.

East:
We're looking at Brooklyn, Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, NY  and Chicago as the bottom feeders. 
- Orlando is off to a great start.  Some of their youth seems to finally be making the leap to productive players.  We'll see if this continues or if they slide back to the pack.  As it is, the early wins will help them (us) in their effort to finish better than the Lakers.
- Indy is off to a good start as well.  Roster isn't great but they're winning.  Like Orlando, early wins will help in the effort to finish better than the Lakers.
- Chicago has a cruddy roster but they're missing Lavine who's their prize acquisition from Minny.  Once he's back that should address some of their scoring issues.  They'll be bad but good enough to steal some wins against mediocre Eastern teams.
- NY has a few decent players.  KP is looking good (except when playing the C's) but doesn't have enough support to get to be a mediocre team.  Off to an ok start and have the talent to pull off some wins in a weak conference. 
- Atlanta has a crap roster pure and simple.  probably worst in the league.  very likely to have the worst record in the league at the end of the season. 
- Brooklyn has a crap roster as well but a little better than Atlanta in terms of players that could have a good game once in a while.  They're doing better than expected so far which is great in terms of their record but I suspect they'll come back to earth before long and have another lousy year in the end.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #316 on: November 02, 2017, 10:07:46 AM »

Offline JBcat

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To me right now I’d say it’s 50/50 if the pick conveys.  For me I see the Kings, Mavs, Suns, Hawks, Bulls, and Knicks all potentially with worse records than the Lakers.  The Pacers actually look like they have a cohesive unit and Turner isn’t playing yet.  The Nets won’t be tanking in the second half of the season when many of the teams will unofficially mail it in.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #317 on: November 02, 2017, 10:10:44 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick


Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #318 on: November 02, 2017, 10:13:36 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019
I'm bitter.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #319 on: November 02, 2017, 11:15:06 AM »

Offline Jvalin

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019
The lottery changes will come into effect in 2019.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #320 on: November 02, 2017, 11:18:48 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019

No

Kings are brutal... And will be for the next 3 years

So realistic worst case we get their 2-5 2019 pick

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #321 on: November 02, 2017, 11:22:32 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019

No

Kings are brutal... And will be for the next 3 years

So realistic worst case we get their 2-5 2019 pick

...the Kings being awful increases our chances of the King's pick being #1.  If they're #1, we get the 76ers pick instead.

Are you saying that, despite the Kings being "brutal", there's no "realistic" chance of the Kings pick being #1 overall?
I'm bitter.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #322 on: November 02, 2017, 11:24:32 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019
The lottery changes will come into effect in 2019.

TP. You're right, I forgot about that.  So it only affects the Kings pick (making it less likely to be #1), but not the Lakers pick.  Still, not too shabby.
I'm bitter.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #323 on: November 02, 2017, 11:29:48 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019

No

Kings are brutal... And will be for the next 3 years

So realistic worst case we get their 2-5 2019 pick

...the Kings being awful increases our chances of the King's pick being #1.  If they're #1, we get the 76ers pick instead.

Are you saying that, despite the Kings being "brutal", there's no "realistic" chance of the Kings pick being #1 overall?

They do. But think probabilities

All those worst cases have to happen ... No way

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #324 on: November 02, 2017, 11:34:15 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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The "meat" part of all of this imo

Lakers 2018 2-5 pick (60-65 percent)
Kings 2019 pick 2-6 (I would say 80 percent)


Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #325 on: November 02, 2017, 11:54:17 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Worst case you get a high 2019 sac pick

Giving up the nets pick was smarter than to give up the lakers pick

No, worst case we get a non-lottery 2019 pick from the 76ers.  The lottery changes should help a lot, though, and give us a better shot at getting the Lakers pick this year and of avoiding the Kings getting the #1 pick in 2019

No

Kings are brutal... And will be for the next 3 years

So realistic worst case we get their 2-5 2019 pick

...the Kings being awful increases our chances of the King's pick being #1.  If they're #1, we get the 76ers pick instead.

Are you saying that, despite the Kings being "brutal", there's no "realistic" chance of the Kings pick being #1 overall?

They do. But think probabilities

All those worst cases have to happen ... No way

...I am thinking probabilities.  Unrealistic possibilities would be saying that the Kings will end up making the playoffs, so the pick will be bad.  But there's a very solid chance that the pick ends up #1 if the Kings are "brutal" again next year (10.5-14% if they are a bottom 5 team).  "All those worst cases" is literally just the Kings winning the lottery after finishing at/near the bottom (a decent chance), and the 76ers making the playoffs in the east next season (a very good chance).

Do you honestly think that that is unrealistic?  Did you also think that it was unrealistic to call the Cs getting the #1 overall pick from the Nets last year the "best case scenario"? That was only a 25% chance on lottery night, and significantly less than that before the season
I'm bitter.

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #326 on: November 02, 2017, 12:04:13 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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The "meat" part of all of this imo

Lakers 2018 2-5 pick (60-65 percent)
Kings 2019 pick 2-6 (I would say 80 percent)
The Lakers might not even be a bottom 6 team this year.

Birdman posted an interesting list of his worst teams. Not sure I agree 100% with his point of view, but it's an interesting list nontheless.
So far this is where I rank my worst teams
1. Chicago
2. Sacramento
3. Atlanta
4. Dallas
5. Phoenix
6. New York
7. Brooklyn
8. Lakers

If that's the case, then the chances of the pick landing 2-5 are 7.2%.

Here are the odds for each team in the 2018 draft



And here are the chances of the pick landing 2-5 based on the Lakers seed at the end of the season

If the Lakers have the worst record : 75%
2nd worst record  : 80.1%
3rd worst record :80.4%
4th : 70.9%
5th : 46.5%
6th : 15.2%
7th : 10.7%
8th : 7.2%
9th : 4.4%
10th : 2.9%
11th : 2.1%
12th : 1.8%
13th : 1.6%
14th : 1.3%
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 12:23:23 PM by Jvalin »

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #327 on: November 02, 2017, 03:07:16 PM »

Offline Eja117

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Josh Hart looks ok for a rookie

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #328 on: November 02, 2017, 11:21:05 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I still think the Lakers pick will be conveying this year.  Granted, there are some other bad teams out there but LA is playing in the West which is loaded with better teams that will beat on them more frequently than the teams in the East.

Thing is, there's a big difference between the talent levels of the West bottom feeders and the other Western teams as opposed to the smaller difference in talent levels of the East bottom feeders and the other Eastern teams.   The crappy teams in the West beating the not-crappy teams is more of a stretch than in the East due to that smaller talent gap in the East.

West:
Only other teams that are close to the Lakers in terms of futility are Sacramento, Phoenix and Dallas.
- Lakers.  Team is underwhelming in terms of players.  Lopez is the big name but not producing near his Nets level.  Leading scorer is Clarkson at less than 15 points per game.  KCP is a longshot to become more than a defensive player.  the rest are young players who haven't proven anything.
- Sacramento has more talent but hasn't figured out how to get them to play together yet as evidenced by their destruction by the C's this week.  They should be able to finish with a similar record to the Lakers if not a bit better.
- Dallas has more talent but isn't performing as well as they should.  Dirk looks to have really dropped off in talent this season.  The way a number of people here were falling over themselves to sign Harrison Barnes to a max deal he should be performing like an all-star instead of the mediocre 3rd banana he is.  in the end, this team should have enough pieces to end up better than the Lakers but worst case should be a similar record.
- Phx also has more talent than the Lakers but they're underperforming as well.  I'm anticipating them to improve as the season progresses and leave the Lakers comfortably behind them in the standings.  they'll still have a crappy record due to being in the West but they're a better team.

East:
We're looking at Brooklyn, Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, NY  and Chicago as the bottom feeders. 
- Orlando is off to a great start.  Some of their youth seems to finally be making the leap to productive players.  We'll see if this continues or if they slide back to the pack.  As it is, the early wins will help them (us) in their effort to finish better than the Lakers.
- Indy is off to a good start as well.  Roster isn't great but they're winning.  Like Orlando, early wins will help in the effort to finish better than the Lakers.
- Chicago has a cruddy roster but they're missing Lavine who's their prize acquisition from Minny.  Once he's back that should address some of their scoring issues.  They'll be bad but good enough to steal some wins against mediocre Eastern teams.
- NY has a few decent players.  KP is looking good (except when playing the C's) but doesn't have enough support to get to be a mediocre team.  Off to an ok start and have the talent to pull off some wins in a weak conference. 
- Atlanta has a crap roster pure and simple.  probably worst in the league.  very likely to have the worst record in the league at the end of the season. 
- Brooklyn has a crap roster as well but a little better than Atlanta in terms of players that could have a good game once in a while.  They're doing better than expected so far which is great in terms of their record but I suspect they'll come back to earth before long and have another lousy year in the end.
agreed

Re: 2017-2018 LA Lakers Season Watch Thread
« Reply #329 on: November 02, 2017, 11:22:01 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Also looks like trailblazers doing work up like 15 on the lakers near he half