Author Topic: How Many (Currently Healthy) Backcourt Duos Would You Take Over Kemba - Smart?  (Read 8733 times)

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Offline Somebody

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
This only proves that his situational value on the Celtics is high instead of him being a really good player. You can be a bang average player who has crazy +/- stats because your replacement is garbage.
These are the top 10 in +- that have played at least 9 games.  They are in order

Tatum
Kawhi
Barton
Lebron
Giannis
Booker
Butler
Oubre
Siakam
Millsap

Will Barton is the only odd player, but Millsap is 10th and Murray is 11th so that unit for Denver has been fantastic.

For a few games +- can be skewed tremendously by a good or bad run, but at some point in the season, the cream will rise and the best players on the best teams lead the league in that category (last year, for example, of the players that played at least 60 games, the top 12 league leaders were all Warriors, Bucks, and Raptors).  So it will balance out some, but for Tatum to be so much larger than the guys that start with him, is quite surprising as usually the units mimic each other.
Not at this point of the season when there are 70 games left to go, I still see most differences in plus minus (at least if the difference isn't as huge as say, first to last) as relatively insignificant.

And as my edited post said, waiting for APM and RPM to come out on a larger sample size will give us a better idea of whether Tatum belongs to the cream.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 11:16:07 PM by Somebody »
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Offline nickagneta

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.

Offline Somebody

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
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Offline nickagneta

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.

Offline Somebody

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
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Offline nickagneta

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.
Almost all impact metrics put out wonky results every now and then, it's how you interpret it that matters. For example I don't think you'd rate Danny Green as a better player than Klay Thompson last season even though his PIPM was better, you'd just rate Green as an amazing role player who provides massive value on stacked teams due to his additive shooting and defense, while Klay's value is muted in such a role because he's not a top of the pack defender, and he doesn't provide a ton of complementary skills other than his shooting and non elite man defense, but he'd flourish if he had a larger offensive load and less of a defensive burden so he can focus on man defense and utilise his offensive arsenal more (he's actually pretty good at creating off the bounce and making a move off the catch, as opposed to Green's purely catch and shoot game).

And APM is better over multiple years, but even one year data is better than raw on/off. Anyways my point was that Tatum is nothing special in more advanced plus minus statistics that account for a variety of factors that contribute to the noise in raw on/off.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2019, 11:04:52 AM by Somebody »
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Offline nickagneta

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.
Almost all impact metrics put out wonky results every now and then, it's how you interpret it that matters. For example I don't think you'd rate Danny Green as a better player than Klay Thompson last season even though his PIPM was better, you'd just rate Green as an amazing role player who provides massive value on stacked teams due to his additive shooting and defense.

And APM is better over multiple years, but even one year data is better than raw on/off. Anyways my point was that Tatum is nothing special in more advanced plus minus statistics that account for a variety of factors that contribute to the noise in raw on/off.
Yeah, I agree. The +/- stat showing Tatum leading the league is greatly overstating his effectiveness on the court this season. All his other advanced stats show him to be good but not great or league leading in anything.

Judging Tatum's impact on this team based primarily on the +/- stat, like some are doing, is insane.

Offline Somebody

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.
Almost all impact metrics put out wonky results every now and then, it's how you interpret it that matters. For example I don't think you'd rate Danny Green as a better player than Klay Thompson last season even though his PIPM was better, you'd just rate Green as an amazing role player who provides massive value on stacked teams due to his additive shooting and defense.

And APM is better over multiple years, but even one year data is better than raw on/off. Anyways my point was that Tatum is nothing special in more advanced plus minus statistics that account for a variety of factors that contribute to the noise in raw on/off.
Yeah, I agree. The +/- stat showing Tatum leading the league is greatly overstating his effectiveness on the court this season. All his other advanced stats show him to be good but not great or league leading in anything.

Judging Tatum's impact on this team based primarily on the +/- stat, like some are doing, is insane.
Agreed. I get that the eye test makes anointing him as the best thing since sliced bread attractive, but there's no need to pull out pretty much the worst stat in the family of impact metrics to push the narrative that he's a top of the line wing.
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Offline nickagneta

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.
Almost all impact metrics put out wonky results every now and then, it's how you interpret it that matters. For example I don't think you'd rate Danny Green as a better player than Klay Thompson last season even though his PIPM was better, you'd just rate Green as an amazing role player who provides massive value on stacked teams due to his additive shooting and defense.

And APM is better over multiple years, but even one year data is better than raw on/off. Anyways my point was that Tatum is nothing special in more advanced plus minus statistics that account for a variety of factors that contribute to the noise in raw on/off.
Yeah, I agree. The +/- stat showing Tatum leading the league is greatly overstating his effectiveness on the court this season. All his other advanced stats show him to be good but not great or league leading in anything.

Judging Tatum's impact on this team based primarily on the +/- stat, like some are doing, is insane.
Agreed. I get that the eye test makes anointing him as the best thing since sliced bread attractive, but there's no need to pull out pretty much the worst stat in the family of impact metrics to push the narrative that he's a top of the line wing.
EXACTLY!!! Good convo. Many TPs to you

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Zero!  Ours has too much personality!    8)

Offline Somebody

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 :laugh:
Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.
APM is okay, though I think it a stat better used over multiple years rather than parts of a year or only one year.

I have no respect for the RPM stat. Anyone that won't publish a formula for a stat is hiding something and given the wanky results RPM can put out, I don't like it.
Almost all impact metrics put out wonky results every now and then, it's how you interpret it that matters. For example I don't think you'd rate Danny Green as a better player than Klay Thompson last season even though his PIPM was better, you'd just rate Green as an amazing role player who provides massive value on stacked teams due to his additive shooting and defense.

And APM is better over multiple years, but even one year data is better than raw on/off. Anyways my point was that Tatum is nothing special in more advanced plus minus statistics that account for a variety of factors that contribute to the noise in raw on/off.
Yeah, I agree. The +/- stat showing Tatum leading the league is greatly overstating his effectiveness on the court this season. All his other advanced stats show him to be good but not great or league leading in anything.

Judging Tatum's impact on this team based primarily on the +/- stat, like some are doing, is insane.
Agreed. I get that the eye test makes anointing him as the best thing since sliced bread attractive, but there's no need to pull out pretty much the worst stat in the family of impact metrics to push the narrative that he's a top of the line wing.
EXACTLY!!! Good convo. Many TPs to you
I thoroughly enjoyed the conversation as well, TP back at you :)
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Offline mmmmm

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Tatum +12 in the 1 point loss.  At some point this stops being a fluke and starts being the reality when it comes to Tatum and his actual value to the scoreboard.  I mean he can shoot 1 for 18 and be +16.  He is amazingly valuable because of who actually comes in for him.
Not sure if you caught the local broadcast but Sean Grande and Scal were making fun of this stat, basically called it garbage with proof being Tatum's great +/- while going 1-18 and being a +15, at the time in this game while having 4 points and not playing well.
To be fair he can produce crazy numbers in the +/- family of metrics (the ones that adjust for teammate quality, opponent strength, etc, not these on/off splits that take the scoreboard at face value) if he played defense and passed like the second coming of Kevin Garnett, even if his scoring was anemic. The thing is that his complementary attributes are nowhere near that level, his best complementary skill in help defense is just solidly above average.
I don't hate the stat, just stating that Grande and Scal think it garbage. One said, and I paraphrase, it's too early to try to gauge a player's play by that stat, then the other said, heck, after a season it's too early to use that stat. Neither seemed in love with it.

It's a noisy stat and can be deceptive. Tatum leading the league in it is extremely deceptive but it's just an 12 game sample. It should even out some by mid-season.
I wasn't mentioning on/off, I was talking about its more accurate cousins in RPM and APM. Those stats account for the factors I mentioned above, and they don't show anything special about Tatum that doesn't show up in the box score imo in his first couple of seasons (they're not available for this season since they require a pretty big sample size). But yeah plus minus stats need a big sample size to show any correlation/trends, and even then the correlation might be pretty weak/noisy.

Those stats aren't really all that "more accurate".   They still have gigantic error bars of uncertainty because their simply isn't really enough data in a single season to support this method and rosters are not stable enough across different seasons to make it meaningful to merge data for multiple seasons.

The biggest problem I have with RPM/APM stats it that they are sold by ESPN as if they ARE more accurate and people buy into that crap and cite their stupid 'rankings' as if they have any real meaning.   But there is no real statistical difference between some player ranked 100th and another guy ranked 300th.  They are both overlapped by the noise in the stat.   Restart the season with the all the same rosters and initial conditions in a parallel universe and they could easily flip rankings.  Or end up both at 200.   The rankings are essentially meaningless but but the way they are presented (with 450+ players) makes it _seem_ as if their is a huge difference between a top ranking and a bottom ranking.
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The guys look dominant tonight with Kemba and smart out there ...

Just saying ....
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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