Author Topic: What is this team's future?  (Read 6440 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2020, 03:31:39 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533


If Ainge has a failure, that is it.  He keeps trying to win now, while also building for the future and may be sacrificing both to do it. 



I disagree.

I think one of the keys to winning a title, unless you have a clear cut top 2-3 player in the league, is to give yourself many chances to make a deep run and be in the Finals with a chance to win.


The example I always think of is the Mavericks with Nowitzki.  They were knocking on the door for a decade, basically, before they finally broke through in 2011. 


My feeling is that if you can have a team that is capable of being elite (top 5) on both ends, then you have a chance at a title.  You should try to extend the window that your team can be at that level of competitiveness for as long as possible.


All of that said, I won't argue that Ainge has always struck the perfect balance.  I just disagree with the notion that if the team sees Jayson & Jaylen as the core and thinks the roster is likely to peak several years from now, that means they ought to abandon any efforts to make a run this year or next.
Dirk was a MVP level player though.  I'm perfectly fine trying to win a title when you have a MVP caliber player on your roster.  And while he wasn't a Lebron level guy, he was still a clear franchise player.  Boston doesn't have one of those players right now.  Sure, maybe you get lucky and pull off an 04 Pistons type run, but that happens once every 30 years or so.  That isn't a way to build a championship level team.  You need the franchise player, and if Boston doesn't have one, it should be doing what it can to get one.  If Tatum is going to be that guy, then Boston should be putting Tatum in the best position to reach that potential and when he does to have the pieces surrounding him that give the team the best shot at winning when he does. 

Frankly, I think Ainge knows this.  That is why the team has like 10 players with 3 or less years of experience.  Ainge is trying to find diamonds in the rough that can grow with Tatum.  He is also trying to keep the team competitive, but I just don't think that is a winning strategy long term.  The team has already lost out on a top 8 pick with this strategy.  If you make the Irving trade, you have to cash in, and Ainge didn't do that and cost the team a very valuable potential asset for absolutely nothing (how nice would SGA or Porter be, as an example).  The fan base needs to hold him accountable for this.  Pick a direction and go for it. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2020, 03:34:50 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
He didn't not go all in with Irving, Irving just left so that meant trading Tatum for Davis would have been a fool's errand.

I mean he let Horford walk. I think that's a sign of what he wants to build towards. I think the real fork in the road is Hayward and what happens with his deal and potential FA.
From the time Irving was acquired until Irving left, Boston didn't make a single trade (other than things like Bird).  That isn't going for it.  That is biding time and waiting for Davis and hoping you keep Irving happy.  Maybe if Ainge would have actually done something, Irving would have been happier and would have stayed.  Instead Ainge sat on his hands while everyone else got better.  He wasted a top 10 pick by being indecisive and doing literally nothing (aside adding some rookies) for 2 full seasons.  If he wasn't going to go for it, he shouldn't have acquired Irving.  It was a bad trade because he didn't follow it up. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2020, 03:35:28 PM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30859
  • Tommy Points: 1327
All of that said, I won't argue that Ainge has always struck the perfect balance.  I just disagree with the notion that if the team sees Jayson & Jaylen as the core and thinks the roster is likely to peak several years from now, that means they ought to abandon any efforts to make a run this year or next.
TP.

There is real value in being a good team. For one it allows you to attract the Kembas/Horfords/Haywards of the NBA. It also is fun for your fans and gives you a better context to evaluate your talent.

Its not riskless, last year demonstrated that. But you make your best call and keep building.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2020, 03:44:03 PM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30859
  • Tommy Points: 1327
Anyways to answer the OP:

The plan was never Kyrie or Horford (especially not Baynes), the plan was always Kevin Durant. The C's were setup to sign Durant and Horford if KD had also said yes. And then when he went to GSW it became Anthony Davis. Building a good roster that was attractive to Davis, could afford to trade for him, and would win with him was the primary plan.

Those two plans failed, but that happens especially in an elite player driven league so you have to keep going.

Others have said this as well this team's future is Jaylen and Jayson and their present is Jaylen/Jayson/Kemba. I wouldn't be shocked if Danny was also scheming to setup to make a run at the next superstar he sees lining up, but it seems option A is building around Tatum until he decides he's not good enough.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2020, 04:23:21 PM »

Offline Jvalin

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3737
  • Tommy Points: 737
Can you see any MVP's on this roster? For me it's no, so I am curious what everyone thinks is the Celtics plan in the future to make this team into a contender? What do you want?
As things stand right now, I don't see us beating neither the Bucks nor the Sixers.

Imo, we need to upgrade the C position. Ideally, I'd want an elite defensive C who's happy to play off the ball on offense. Either a stretch 5 (Myles Turner) or a pick n roll specialist (Jarrett Allen). If we somehow make such a trade without sacrificing our 5-man core, then anything is possible.



I mean, we'd still need an MVP-caliber player, but we'd have a balanced starting 5 and an impressive 6-man core.

rotation come playoff time:

Kemba (36 minutes) - Smart (12)
Brown (36) - Smart (12)
Hayward (36) - Smart (12)
Tatum (36) - whomever (12)
Turner (36) - whomever (12)

If you look at every NBA championship team, minus Detroit in 2004 and Toronto last season, every winner in history has had a former, or current MVP on it.
Forget team chemistry for a moment. In a vacuum, who is/was the better player?

Kemba or Billups?
Brown or Rip Hamilton?
Hayward or Prince?
Tatum or Sheed?
Turner or Ben Wallace?

Smart > whomever was their 6th man (Okur?)
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 06:11:32 PM by Jvalin »

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2020, 05:24:50 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

  • NCE
  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1401
  • Tommy Points: 140
He didn't not go all in with Irving, Irving just left so that meant trading Tatum for Davis would have been a fool's errand.

I mean he let Horford walk. I think that's a sign of what he wants to build towards. I think the real fork in the road is Hayward and what happens with his deal and potential FA.
From the time Irving was acquired until Irving left, Boston didn't make a single trade (other than things like Bird).  That isn't going for it.  That is biding time and waiting for Davis and hoping you keep Irving happy.  Maybe if Ainge would have actually done something, Irving would have been happier and would have stayed.  Instead Ainge sat on his hands while everyone else got better.  He wasted a top 10 pick by being indecisive and doing literally nothing (aside adding some rookies) for 2 full seasons.  If he wasn't going to go for it, he shouldn't have acquired Irving.  It was a bad trade because he didn't follow it up.

It hurts to admit, but I really couldn't agree more.  Ainge has been fumbling at the goal line ever since the Kendrick Perkins trade. 

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2020, 05:37:46 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8595
  • Tommy Points: 842
He didn't not go all in with Irving, Irving just left so that meant trading Tatum for Davis would have been a fool's errand.

I mean he let Horford walk. I think that's a sign of what he wants to build towards. I think the real fork in the road is Hayward and what happens with his deal and potential FA.
From the time Irving was acquired until Irving left, Boston didn't make a single trade (other than things like Bird).  That isn't going for it.  That is biding time and waiting for Davis and hoping you keep Irving happy.  Maybe if Ainge would have actually done something, Irving would have been happier and would have stayed.  Instead Ainge sat on his hands while everyone else got better.  He wasted a top 10 pick by being indecisive and doing literally nothing (aside adding some rookies) for 2 full seasons.  If he wasn't going to go for it, he shouldn't have acquired Irving.  It was a bad trade because he didn't follow it up.
Im willing to go a little easy on him because of Hayward.
He went out to get Irving when he thought he had the prime of Gordon Hayward. Then Hayward snapped his ankle in half and your thrust into this weird no mans land.
Like you say, why acquire Irving if you don’t plan to sorta go all in presumably in the form of moving a Jay or whatever. But when Hayward becomes a question mark all that math changes. At that point I really don’t think there was a trade out there that moved the needle enough to justify it. I also think Ainge was reasonable in believing they had a good chance to stand pat and retain Irving anyway and then moving forward you can reset and kinda remake that decision.
Basically, any GMs plan is gonna look Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ty if their prized free agent signing suffers a career altering injury 6 minutes into their 1st season.
We praise Masai up and down because he “went for it” but how much praise would he be getting if Kawhi who has a much much bigger injury history than Irving broke his ankle opening night last year?
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2020, 05:41:23 PM »

Offline CelticsPoetry

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 741
  • Tommy Points: 73
Can you see any MVP's on this roster? For me it's no, so I am curious what everyone thinks is the Celtics plan in the future to make this team into a contender? What do you want?
As thing stand right now, I don't see us beating neither the Bucks nor the Sixers.

Imo, we need to upgrade the C position. Ideally, I'd want an elite defensive C who's happy to play off the ball on offense. Either a stretch 5 (Myles Turner) or a pick n roll specialist (Jarrett Allen). If we somehow make such a trade without sacrificing our 5-man core, then anything is possible.



I mean, we'd still need an MVP-caliber player, but we'd have a balanced starting 5 and an impressive 6-man core.

rotation come playoff time:

Kemba (36 minutes) - Smart (12)
Brown (36) - Smart (12)
Hayward (36) - Smart (12)
Tatum (36) - whomever (12)
Turner (36) - whomever (12)

If you look at every NBA championship team, minus Detroit in 2004 and Toronto last season, every winner in history has had a former, or current MVP on it.
Forget team chemistry for a moment. In a vacuum, who is/was the better player?

Kemba or Billups?
Brown or Rip Hamilton?
Hayward or Prince?
Tatum or Sheed?
Turner or Ben Wallace?

Smart > whomever was their 6th man (Okur?)
One big advantage in that lineup is Hamilton's midrange game. Dude was deadly and that is just what we need, someone who can get baskets when we're cold. Wallace is obviously much more valuable than Turner (not saying he is a better player). Can you imagine Ben on this team?? Though you'd still have guys complaining that we're undersized.

The one cleara advantage that team had is historically good defense.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2020, 07:15:57 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
All of that said, I won't argue that Ainge has always struck the perfect balance.  I just disagree with the notion that if the team sees Jayson & Jaylen as the core and thinks the roster is likely to peak several years from now, that means they ought to abandon any efforts to make a run this year or next.
TP.

There is real value in being a good team. For one it allows you to attract the Kembas/Horfords/Haywards of the NBA. It also is fun for your fans and gives you a better context to evaluate your talent.

Its not riskless, last year demonstrated that. But you make your best call and keep building.


Also -- if Jay & Jay really are the future, it's good for them to learn lessons about what it takes to (a) earn a top seed in the regular season and (b) win tough games in the playoffs BEFORE they hit their peak and the team wants to go all-in for a title.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2020, 07:35:06 PM »

Offline jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13002
  • Tommy Points: 1756
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
I am not sure what people want out of Ainge. I suppose you can pick out his mid-late pick draft fails, but the dude has been money in trades and FA (he also drafted Brown and Tatum which is basically the answer to this thread's question).

It's not his fault that All-Star Gordon Hayward snapped his leg in half just minutes into his Cs career or that AD's dad went postal on Ainge for doing IT dirty while at the same time Lebron (and KG) were convincing him to go there. It's a bummer and plans need to be fluid with the changing times, but I would say acquiring Kemba and letting Tatum and Brown develop into stars is our current plan.

How we acquire the MVP caliber guy that gets us over the hump? I have no idea (maybe it's Tatum). It's hard to win a championship - there are 30 teams that all want a ring - at least we have a GM who is willing to make controversial moves and an ownership group willing to spend money.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2020, 07:58:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
I think that given the inherent scarcity of MVP-caliber talent (by definition there's really only ever 4-5 players at most in any given year who are near that level), it doesn't make sense to orient your team building strategy around acquiring that level of player.

I think it makes sense to try, if you can, to keep open the option of trying to pounce on whatever opportunity arises to acquire such a player.  But those opportunities are exceedingly rare and the competition is inevitably fierce. 

If you say, "Well we can't contend without an MVP so all of our efforts have to be focused on figuring out how to get one," you're going to spend 90% of your time as a franchise trying to get the guy, and very little of your time actually competing with the team you currently have.  And we've seen in the past decade that once you get that guy, you may only have him for a season or two.  So we're really supposed to spend 5-10 years at a time trying to get a guy just so the team can make a serious run or two before heading back into the wilderness?

It was a different matter back in the old days when a team that obtained a legitimate franchise player would be sure to have that guy for a decade or more.  Spending a while searching for a centerpiece makes more sense in that context.  Now it seems like teams are better off trying to create some stability and a culture that star players may be attracted to join.


I like where the Celts are at now.  They've drafted and developed a young core with multiple All-Star level talents.  They've cultivated a deep stable of assets / supporting pieces while keeping the cap sheet relatively clean long term.  They have plenty of flexibility for molding the supporting cast around their core.

If a MVP type player becomes available, Ainge will have some options for trying to get in on that conversation.  But if, as is always most likely, the Celts don't really have a chance to acquire a MVP player in his prime, they still have a team that can be among the best in the league for the near future.



I think the Raptors model is a good one to follow -- build a good team with solid infrastructure.  Compete year after year.  If you get lucky with matchups and your team gets hot, maybe you make a deep run.  If not, you've still got a team your fans love to follow.  Then, when a superstar becomes available, you can try to make a trade to go all-in, even if only for a season or two.  Then when that guy leaves, you still have the infrastructure to fall back on so you aren't left totally high and dry.


I used to have a more all-or-nothing mindset about this stuff.  I used to think that if a team isn't clearly in contention then the right move is to tank and accumulate assets until one of your young guys turns out to be the next big thing or you trade for "the guy."  But now I think that way lies madness. 

You can't just churn and churn and churn endlessly.  Either your team will develop and end up being too good to keep drafting good players, or your team will stay bad in which case the whole thing will sour and your fans will get fed up.  The last thing you want to be is the team that is constantly trying to sell its fans on the hope of the next free agency period.  I think we've also seen that following "The Process" or some similar method, even when a lot of good luck is involved, doesn't necessarily put you in a better spot than other teams that followed a more middle of the road approach. 
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 08:07:08 PM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2020, 08:53:22 PM »

Offline GreenCoffeeBean

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1155
  • Tommy Points: 91
I do not believe we will win a title with Kemba and Hayward but we will get close and the experience Tatum and Brown gain from the painful losses will help them win titles in 3-8 years.

I don’t think this team is missing a near all star or better Center. I think we’re missing a modern NBA PF and 10+ points off the bench. To win a championship you need elite shot creation to close out games too. We’re missing a guy with that.

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2020, 10:45:15 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6131
  • Tommy Points: 722
He didn't not go all in with Irving, Irving just left so that meant trading Tatum for Davis would have been a fool's errand.

I mean he let Horford walk. I think that's a sign of what he wants to build towards. I think the real fork in the road is Hayward and what happens with his deal and potential FA.
From the time Irving was acquired until Irving left, Boston didn't make a single trade (other than things like Bird).  That isn't going for it.  That is biding time and waiting for Davis and hoping you keep Irving happy.  Maybe if Ainge would have actually done something, Irving would have been happier and would have stayed.  Instead Ainge sat on his hands while everyone else got better.  He wasted a top 10 pick by being indecisive and doing literally nothing (aside adding some rookies) for 2 full seasons.  If he wasn't going to go for it, he shouldn't have acquired Irving.  It was a bad trade because he didn't follow it up.

It was a bad trade because Irving is a bad guy to have on your team. Plain and simple, he is a locker room cancer - he wasn't going to lead us to any titles. He has not been in Brooklyn even half a season and has already shot his mouth off to the team's detriment a dozen times. Hindsight is that we should have traded him before last season's deadline for a quality post player + a shooter.
The Four Celtic Generals:
Russell - Cowens - Bird - Garnett

The Four Celtic Lieutenants:
Cousy - Havlicek - McHale - Pierce

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2020, 11:15:25 PM »

Offline NKY fan

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2349
  • Tommy Points: 106
He didn't not go all in with Irving, Irving just left so that meant trading Tatum for Davis would have been a fool's errand.

I mean he let Horford walk. I think that's a sign of what he wants to build towards. I think the real fork in the road is Hayward and what happens with his deal and potential FA.
From the time Irving was acquired until Irving left, Boston didn't make a single trade (other than things like Bird).  That isn't going for it.  That is biding time and waiting for Davis and hoping you keep Irving happy.  Maybe if Ainge would have actually done something, Irving would have been happier and would have stayed.  Instead Ainge sat on his hands while everyone else got better.  He wasted a top 10 pick by being indecisive and doing literally nothing (aside adding some rookies) for 2 full seasons.  If he wasn't going to go for it, he shouldn't have acquired Irving.  It was a bad trade because he didn't follow it up.

It was a bad trade because Irving is a bad guy to have on your team. Plain and simple, he is a locker room cancer - he wasn't going to lead us to any titles. He has not been in Brooklyn even half a season and has already shot his mouth off to the team's detriment a dozen times. Hindsight is that we should have traded him before last season's deadline for a quality post player + a shooter.
I also don’t understand Ainge defending that trade saying he would do it 100 times out of 100.
So an mvp (Leonard) was available for a reasonable price although just a one year rental and he didn’t do it instead ... he went for the 2 year rental of player that doesn’t affect winning %

Re: What is this team's future?
« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2020, 11:55:53 PM »

Offline Somebody

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7816
  • Tommy Points: 560
  • STAND FIRM, SAY NO TO VIBE MEN
I think that given the inherent scarcity of MVP-caliber talent (by definition there's really only ever 4-5 players at most in any given year who are near that level), it doesn't make sense to orient your team building strategy around acquiring that level of player.

I think it makes sense to try, if you can, to keep open the option of trying to pounce on whatever opportunity arises to acquire such a player.  But those opportunities are exceedingly rare and the competition is inevitably fierce. 

If you say, "Well we can't contend without an MVP so all of our efforts have to be focused on figuring out how to get one," you're going to spend 90% of your time as a franchise trying to get the guy, and very little of your time actually competing with the team you currently have.  And we've seen in the past decade that once you get that guy, you may only have him for a season or two.  So we're really supposed to spend 5-10 years at a time trying to get a guy just so the team can make a serious run or two before heading back into the wilderness?

It was a different matter back in the old days when a team that obtained a legitimate franchise player would be sure to have that guy for a decade or more.  Spending a while searching for a centerpiece makes more sense in that context.  Now it seems like teams are better off trying to create some stability and a culture that star players may be attracted to join.


I like where the Celts are at now.  They've drafted and developed a young core with multiple All-Star level talents.  They've cultivated a deep stable of assets / supporting pieces while keeping the cap sheet relatively clean long term.  They have plenty of flexibility for molding the supporting cast around their core.

If a MVP type player becomes available, Ainge will have some options for trying to get in on that conversation.  But if, as is always most likely, the Celts don't really have a chance to acquire a MVP player in his prime, they still have a team that can be among the best in the league for the near future.



I think the Raptors model is a good one to follow -- build a good team with solid infrastructure.  Compete year after year.  If you get lucky with matchups and your team gets hot, maybe you make a deep run.  If not, you've still got a team your fans love to follow.  Then, when a superstar becomes available, you can try to make a trade to go all-in, even if only for a season or two.  Then when that guy leaves, you still have the infrastructure to fall back on so you aren't left totally high and dry.


I used to have a more all-or-nothing mindset about this stuff.  I used to think that if a team isn't clearly in contention then the right move is to tank and accumulate assets until one of your young guys turns out to be the next big thing or you trade for "the guy."  But now I think that way lies madness. 

You can't just churn and churn and churn endlessly.  Either your team will develop and end up being too good to keep drafting good players, or your team will stay bad in which case the whole thing will sour and your fans will get fed up.  The last thing you want to be is the team that is constantly trying to sell its fans on the hope of the next free agency period.  I think we've also seen that following "The Process" or some similar method, even when a lot of good luck is involved, doesn't necessarily put you in a better spot than other teams that followed a more middle of the road approach.
Excellent post, TP.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA