What can Brown do for Team USA? Just about everything

[keevsnick]

Thought this was interesting, not sure where else to put it. On the Dunc'd on Podcast Nate Duncan, Dan Feldman and Danny Leroux do a mock rookie extension podcast that just dropped. They settled on 4 years, 23 million a year guaranteed with up to 26.5 including incentives for All Star appearances and finals runs for Jaylen.

Thoughts?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Am the only one worried about the Celtics Season, given our guys performance in the FIBA.


Brown did everything but he did not always do it well..

Especially at the FT line where Brown is only averaging 45.5% shooting FTs.

Yeah.  On a massive sample size of ... 11 attempts.
 

In the NBA, Brown has never shot 70% from the FT line in 3 seasons.

His highest FT% was during his rookie year, 68.5%.

And he's never shot below 64.4% on a season, either.   He's basically a very consistent ~66% FT shooter.  And that's on a still small but at least credible sample size of 559 attempts.   Which means he's no where anywhere remotely close to a '45%' FT shooter.

And any shooter who is consistently above 60% FT% is not statistically worth fouling intentionally.

So trying to to gnaw on this as if it were a serious weakness is silly.

Brown's my favorite player on the Cs. I agree with you that his free throws aren't as bad as Fierce1 is saying in his daily shade-throwing excercise.

Still, Brown does need to improve there. His three point shooting is solid. He doesn't miss by a lot on free throws. I think its a mental game.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Thought this was interesting, not sure where else to put it. On the Dunc'd on Podcast Nate Duncan, Dan Feldman and Danny Leroux do a mock rookie extension podcast that just dropped. They settled on 4 years, 23 million a year guaranteed with up to 26.5 including incentives for All Star appearances and finals runs for Jaylen.

Thoughts?

Listened to that too. I think it's a very fair price for a guy who will likely outplay that contract.

Still, even if he struggles this year, I think that contract is there from someone. In all likelihood, he can procure a max deal from someone, even if its just an Eastern conference team that is screwing up our cap space and forcing the Cs to sign Brown for a much higher dollar amount.

[keevsnick]

Thought this was interesting, not sure where else to put it. On the Dunc'd on Podcast Nate Duncan, Dan Feldman and Danny Leroux do a mock rookie extension podcast that just dropped. They settled on 4 years, 23 million a year guaranteed with up to 26.5 including incentives for All Star appearances and finals runs for Jaylen.

Thoughts?

Listened to that too. I think it's a very fair price for a guy who will likely outplay that contract.

Still, even if he struggles this year, I think that contract is there from someone. In all likelihood, he can procure a max deal from someone, even if its just an Eastern conference team that is screwing up our cap space and forcing the Cs to sign Brown for a much higher dollar amount.

Thats my feeling too. At first glance it feels like a lot but in a 120+ cap environment solid starters make 20+ million a year. So 23 is an amount that in the worst case wont be a disaster but in the best case could be a solid value.

[keevsnick]

Am the only one worried about the Celtics Season, given our guys performance in the FIBA.


Brown did everything but he did not always do it well..

Especially at the FT line where Brown is only averaging 45.5% shooting FTs.

Yeah.  On a massive sample size of ... 11 attempts.
 

In the NBA, Brown has never shot 70% from the FT line in 3 seasons.

His highest FT% was during his rookie year, 68.5%.

And he's never shot below 64.4% on a season, either.   He's basically a very consistent ~66% FT shooter.  And that's on a still small but at least credible sample size of 559 attempts.   Which means he's no where anywhere remotely close to a '45%' FT shooter.

And any shooter who is consistently above 60% FT% is not statistically worth fouling intentionally.

So trying to to gnaw on this as if it were a serious weakness is silly.

Brown's my favorite player on the Cs. I agree with you that his free throws aren't as bad as Fierce1 is saying in his daily shade-throwing excercise.

Still, Brown does need to improve there. His three point shooting is solid. He doesn't miss by a lot on free throws. I think its a mental game.

It feels like he always front rims the first one. Its strange, it looks like he has better touch on his pull ups from that same range than his FT's.

[nickagneta]

Brown should do a Dirk like fall-away jumper as his FT shot because he seemed to be hitting that shot from 15 feet at about an 80% clip by the end of last season.

No, I am kidding, but, Jaylen needs to get 3 of those post up shots off a night because they were deadly by the end of the season. I wonder what new move he brings to his repertoire this year because that was a tremendous add to his game last year.

[Hoopvortex]

Brown should do a Dirk like fall-away jumper as his FT shot because he seemed to be hitting that shot from 15 feet at about an 80% clip by the end of last season.

You've got a point, in all seriousness.

You have to wonder if a little more motion or lift might help. Are players worried that they won't look good if they try something too eccentric?

Famously the underhanded shot is something that players won't even try - probably because it looks sissy or whatever - even though it helps the arc and softness of the shot.

Brown is aiming to be a do-it-all wing, and he's got what it takes to achieve that. But grade-D free throw shooting undermines everything else.

[moiso]

Brown should do a Dirk like fall-away jumper as his FT shot because he seemed to be hitting that shot from 15 feet at about an 80% clip by the end of last season.

You've got a point, in all seriousness.

You have to wonder if a little more motion or lift might help. Are players worried that they won't look good if they try something too eccentric?

Famously the underhanded shot is something that players won't even try - probably because it looks sissy or whatever - even though it helps the arc and softness of the shot.

Brown is aiming to be a do-it-all wing, and he's got what it takes to achieve that. But grade-D free throw shooting undermines everything else.

I bet a Nick Van Exel free throw jump shot would help him.  He seems to aim and struggle to reach the rim at times with his current form.

[Fierce1]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

[Somebody]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

A Siakam level player who's 23 years old is absolutely worth that Simmons/Murray max. 23M per year is for a 22-23 year old player who's a role player that's mostly developed but still has a bit of room for growth to possibly reach fringe stardom. Jaylen is already a high impact role player who has a pretty long way to go in terms of polish and BBIQ but has shown flashes of being able to develop that full package, and to me 23M will get laughed off by him and his agent.

[Fierce1]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

A Siakam level player who's 23 years old is absolutely worth that Simmons/Murray max. 23M per year is for a 22-23 year old player who's a role player that's mostly developed but still has a bit of room for growth to possibly reach fringe stardom. Jaylen is already a high impact role player who has a pretty long way to go in terms of polish and BBIQ but has shown flashes of being able to develop that full package, and to me 23M will get laughed off by him and his agent.

Jaylen has no agent, he represents himself.

I agree with you that he will just laugh off that offer of 23m per year.

The free-agent class for next summer is weak, so Jaylen can easily get that kind of money from other teams.

That's why I keep saying that Jaylen has until January or February to prove he's worth keeping.
If not then Ainge will trade him because if Ainge will wait next summer, the Celts will lose Brown for nothing if a team offers Brown the max.

[nickagneta]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

A Siakam level player who's 23 years old is absolutely worth that Simmons/Murray max. 23M per year is for a 22-23 year old player who's a role player that's mostly developed but still has a bit of room for growth to possibly reach fringe stardom. Jaylen is already a high impact role player who has a pretty long way to go in terms of polish and BBIQ but has shown flashes of being able to develop that full package, and to me 23M will get laughed off by him and his agent.

Jaylen has no agent, he represents himself.

I agree with you that he will just laugh off that offer of 23m per year.

The free-agent class for next summer is weak, so Jaylen can easily get that kind of money from other teams.

That's why I keep saying that Jaylen has until January or February to prove he's worth keeping.
If not then Ainge will trade him because if Ainge will wait next summer, the Celts will lose Brown for nothing if a team offers Brown the max.

And no matter how many times you keep saying it....

and saying it....

and saying it ...

and saying it....

and saying it, it doesn't make it any more true. Jaylen is worth keeping regardless of what he does this year. Even if all he does is what he did last year, you keep him.

His value is probably already set at higher than Marcus Smart money, at a minimum. If he has just a good year and shows some further signs of development, he is minimum $20 million a year.  If he thrived in a larger role and really develops, he is a max player. Let him and the market set his value.

And no matter what happens there is no reason financially to move him. This team is worth billions. They make tons of profit every year. If they have to pay some luxury tax, it's no big deal. It won't be for a tens of millions. They won't be a repeater. And....it wouldn't be hard to get under the cap elsewhere, depending on draft picks if they didn't want to pay the luxury tax. 

[keevsnick]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

You just pretty much blew up your argument against signing Jaylen. The Wizards were able to move Porter basically as just a neutral salary dump, even after he failed to make significant improvement following signing his contract. Thats because there are always teams that need wings. So WORST case scenario is you eventually give up Jaylen for nothing. BEST case is he becomes an all star level guy and is well worth the contract. Sign me up.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

Even if your assessment was true, your result is way off.

For example, Harrison Barnes just got a slightly smaller contract from the Kings, but their stats are very similar. Allowing for Brown's potential upside and Barnes likely having reached his peak, Brown is worth more.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Harrison+Barnes&player_id1_select=Harrison+Barnes&player_id1=barneha02&y1=2019&player_id2_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id2_select=Jaylen+Brown&y2=2019&player_id2=brownja02&idx=players

Also, Kris Middleton just got a way bigger contract, even though Brown is very close to his ability, with much more room for improvement.

Or Aaron Gordon. Or there are others ...

There are more examples. You may rather have a different player, but those are the comparables for a player of Brown's production both ways and upside.

[Fierce1]

Only way Brown is worth 23m per year is if he has a year like Siakam had with the Raptors last season.

23m per year for 13 or 14 points per game is way too much.

Just look at what happened to the Wiz after the Nets gave Otto Porter an offer sheet worth 106m for 4 years.
The Wiz were forced to match because they thought they had something special in Porter.
In the end the Wiz had a hard time trading Porter.

A Siakam level player who's 23 years old is absolutely worth that Simmons/Murray max. 23M per year is for a 22-23 year old player who's a role player that's mostly developed but still has a bit of room for growth to possibly reach fringe stardom. Jaylen is already a high impact role player who has a pretty long way to go in terms of polish and BBIQ but has shown flashes of being able to develop that full package, and to me 23M will get laughed off by him and his agent.

Jaylen has no agent, he represents himself.

I agree with you that he will just laugh off that offer of 23m per year.

The free-agent class for next summer is weak, so Jaylen can easily get that kind of money from other teams.

That's why I keep saying that Jaylen has until January or February to prove he's worth keeping.
If not then Ainge will trade him because if Ainge will wait next summer, the Celts will lose Brown for nothing if a team offers Brown the max.

And no matter how many times you keep saying it....

and saying it....

and saying it ...

and saying it....

and saying it, it doesn't make it any more true. Jaylen is worth keeping regardless of what he does this year. Even if all he does is what he did last year, you keep him.

His value is probably already set at higher than Marcus Smart money, at a minimum. If he has just a good year and shows some further signs of development, he is minimum $20 million a year.  If he thrived in a larger role and really develops, he is a max player. Let him and the market set his value.

And no matter what happens there is no reason financially to move him. This team is worth billions. They make tons of profit every year. If they have to pay some luxury tax, it's no big deal. It won't be for a tens of millions. They won't be a repeater. And....it wouldn't be hard to get under the cap elsewhere, depending on draft picks if they didn't want to pay the luxury tax.

The issue is not money, the issue is the Celts need a quality big man or a star player.

So why waste another 20m or more on Brown when the Celts already have Hayward and Tatum?

Celts also drafted Langford.

Brown is redundant if he just ends up doing what he did last year.

Only way Brown is worth keeping is if he takes his game to another level.