Shams: Porzingis to Boston?

[Who]

Kristaps took less shots per game than Smart + Grant. I have no doubt that he took less than Smart + Gallo would have too. He is not a very high volume shooter - under 16 FGAs isn’t that bad.

Porzingis played 2100 minutes to take 1000 FGs.

Smart played 2000 minutes to take 650 FGs. Grant 2000 minutes to take 475 FGs. So 1125 FGs in 4000 minutes compared to Porzingis taking 1000 in 2100 minutes.

And Porzingis took more FTs than both of them. Neither got to the line much. 240 FTs combined in their 4000 minutes. Porzingis 400 FTs in his 2100 minutes.

So Porzingis takes half of those 4000 minutes while the other half goes to someone else who is going to want some shots himself. They'll probably want 4-6 shots a game for that player on top of Porzingis' own shot attempts. Maybe more. Grant was one of the lower shot takers in the league. If he is replaced, his replacement wil likely take more. Hauser takes 25% more shots per minute.

I am just saying = Porzingis takes a lot of shots.

My guess is Tatum and Jaylen take less shots to make space for Porzingis. Probably Brogdon too. Porzingis taking possessions away from Jaylen is a win. From Tatum? Not so much. So with those possessions coming from others, how much added value is there? Will he be as efficient as in WAS? More efficient due to less defensive attention? Less efficient due to reduced role / comfort? I don't know.

[Who]

Kristaps took less shots per game than Smart + Grant. I have no doubt that he took less than Smart + Gallo would have too. He is not a very high volume shooter - under 16 FGAs isn’t that bad.

You seem to be ignoring all the positives on offence he brings. Elite shooting, vertical spacing, ability to beat up post mismatches, and a free throw rate of 0.41 (higher than JT).

Also the fact that he’s an elite pick and roll partner for JT, with far more skill and versatility than Al has at this point in his career.  He fits into the actions we want to run very well.

Luka and the Mavs said the same thing.

The Mavs were a .575 team (77-57) with Kristaps. Not terrible - 47 win pace overall, which is a better result than when he missed time.

That Mavs team was also a dominant offence. Prior to the offensive explosion of this season, wasn't one of their offences one of the best ever?

That has gotten me curious about what their record was without Porzingis.

So 2019-20. They were 32 wins and 25 losses with him (0.561). And 11 wins and 7 losses without him (0.611).

2020-21. Dallas was 26 wins and 17 losses with him (0.604). 16 wins and 13 losses without him (0.551). Good improvement that year.

His 2021-22 is awkward moving midseason. Let's see. So Dallas were 33 wins and 23 losses on his final (missed) game. They were 19 wins and 15 losses in games played. Sorry, if that is off, I was counting by hand (well, head). So they would have been 14 wins and 8 losses without him. So they had a 0.558 winning percentage with him and a 0.636 without him.

That is disappointing.

So have I got my math right? I have 77 wins and 55 losses (0.583) as you do so I must have gotten that part right. That would have 41 wins and 28 losses without him (0.594). Almost the same number with or without Porzingis.

That surprises me. I knew there were times where he didn't make much of a difference but I still expected the good times to leave him a positive advantage in his favour.


Anyway, that wasn't what I was trying to say. I was pointing out that Dallas were unhappy with how the two-man game between Luka & Porzingis worked out. That on paper it looked like they should mesh well together. Porzingis has said this himself in an interview. But it didn't.

Many of the same reasons we state for Tatum and Porzingis working together were also the same reasons used for why Luka and Porzingis should work well together. 

[Who]

The other strange part of Porzingis W-L was Washington this year vs last year. They got him on a cheap price, he played brilliantly and far better than the guys he replaced, yet Washington's W-L record stayed the same.

2022-23 = 35 wins 47 losses
2021-22 = 35 wins 47 losses

Dinwiddie and Bertans (who did not play) were the players he replaced.


Porzingis moved midseason the previous year. I forgot that. Maybe that changes the view of that W-L record.

So WAS won 7 games and lost 10 games in the 17 games Porzingis played after the trade that 2021-22 season. A 0.411 winning percentage. Compared to 28 wins and 37 wins in the rest of the season (pre & post trade) WAS played. So a 0.431 winning percentage. Better without but only small difference.

Let's see. What were they post trade without Porzingis.

They were 25 wins and 30 losses at the time of the trade (0.4545 winning percetange). So 10 wins and 17 losses with Porzingis on the team. They were 7 wins 11 losses with Porzingis (0.411) and 3 wins 6 losses without him (0.333). So they were better before acquiring Porzingis trade but better with Porzingis than without post trade.


The team record in WAS being the same despite Porzingis having such a fine year is strange. They had injuries in 2022-23 but they also had injuries in 2021-22 so I don't think that is the difference. It is odd that he doesn't have a bigger impact on W-L when he had such a strong season for them.

[footey]

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-boston-celtics-expected-extend-195648163.html?src=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Not that it will happen but more new news that they expect to resign him.

Add that with Browns supermax seems like Celtics are going all in next year on a Tatum/brown/KP big 3

Yeah - a lot of money to 3 guys.  I’m pretty psyched to see how the 3 play together. Should be great.

I believe in JB - I think he’s going to look great next season. Always works hard in the off-season.

Yeah, I'm sure all that underwater training will improve his left hand.

[Who]

I remember when Camby left the Nuggets. He was a year removed from DPOY and still posting great counting stats defensivey. There was a lot of concern about how Denver would be defensively without Camby. After all, they were barely good with him. How bad would they be without him?

I thought Denver would be better without him because Nene and Kenyon were more fundamentally sound defenders rather than Camby who was chasing counting stats (blocks) rather than playing fundamental D. It worked out that way.

I believe the same will happen with Boston and Marcus Smart. That the team will improve defensively without him albeit for different reasons. This time for allowing the team to play bigger lineups and maintain bigger lineups throughout the game.

This new-look Boston team is going to be much more effective at dictating games defensively, controlling the paint defensively, and making life more uncomfortable for the opponent. Despite on an individual talent level downgrading from Smart (high level defender) to Porzingis (solid defender). Like with Camby, moving on from a DPOY but creating a better team defense without him (Smart).

[BASS_THUMPER]

we did alright...

*sippin*

[wiley]

Kristaps took less shots per game than Smart + Grant. I have no doubt that he took less than Smart + Gallo would have too. He is not a very high volume shooter - under 16 FGAs isn’t that bad.

Porzingis played 2100 minutes to take 1000 FGs.

Smart played 2000 minutes to take 650 FGs. Grant 2000 minutes to take 475 FGs. So 1125 FGs in 4000 minutes compared to Porzingis taking 1000 in 2100 minutes.

And Porzingis took more FTs than both of them. Neither got to the line much. 240 FTs combined in their 4000 minutes. Porzingis 400 FTs in his 2100 minutes.

So Porzingis takes half of those 4000 minutes while the other half goes to someone else who is going to want some shots himself. They'll probably want 4-6 shots a game for that player on top of Porzingis' own shot attempts. Maybe more. Grant was one of the lower shot takers in the league. If he is replaced, his replacement wil likely take more. Hauser takes 25% more shots per minute.

I am just saying = Porzingis takes a lot of shots.

My guess is Tatum and Jaylen take less shots to make space for Porzingis. Probably Brogdon too. Porzingis taking possessions away from Jaylen is a win. From Tatum? Not so much. So with those possessions coming from others, how much added value is there? Will he be as efficient as in WAS? More efficient due to less defensive attention? Less efficient due to reduced role / comfort? I don't know.

I really hope that all three will say to heck with my personal stats
And let’s play to win.  Garnett, Pierce and Allen all scored less than their usual averages once together.  So I hope they just learn how fun winning is and get it done by any means necessary. 

[Who]

Kristaps took less shots per game than Smart + Grant. I have no doubt that he took less than Smart + Gallo would have too. He is not a very high volume shooter - under 16 FGAs isn’t that bad.

Porzingis played 2100 minutes to take 1000 FGs.

Smart played 2000 minutes to take 650 FGs. Grant 2000 minutes to take 475 FGs. So 1125 FGs in 4000 minutes compared to Porzingis taking 1000 in 2100 minutes.

And Porzingis took more FTs than both of them. Neither got to the line much. 240 FTs combined in their 4000 minutes. Porzingis 400 FTs in his 2100 minutes.

So Porzingis takes half of those 4000 minutes while the other half goes to someone else who is going to want some shots himself. They'll probably want 4-6 shots a game for that player on top of Porzingis' own shot attempts. Maybe more. Grant was one of the lower shot takers in the league. If he is replaced, his replacement wil likely take more. Hauser takes 25% more shots per minute.

I am just saying = Porzingis takes a lot of shots.

My guess is Tatum and Jaylen take less shots to make space for Porzingis. Probably Brogdon too. Porzingis taking possessions away from Jaylen is a win. From Tatum? Not so much. So with those possessions coming from others, how much added value is there? Will he be as efficient as in WAS? More efficient due to less defensive attention? Less efficient due to reduced role / comfort? I don't know.

I really hope that all three will say to heck with my personal stats
And let’s play to win.  Garnett, Pierce and Allen all scored less than their usual averages once together.  So I hope they just learn how fun winning is and get it done by any means necessary.

Me too.

I am not optimistic because these guys are younger.

Tatum just starting to establish himself as a possible MVP candidate. Some mentions early last year but fizzled out in 2nd half of the season. Is Tatum ready to step back and be a top 10 player rather than prove he can an MVP candidate? Be the next Kobe? Be a Paul Pierce instead of a Kobe Bryant. Was Pierce when he was Tatum's age? Was Kobe? Kobe sure wasn't.

Jaylen has just made 2 ASGs after being overlooked previously and just made his first All-NBA team after. These accolades all coming after he increased his shot attempts. Will he be satiated by his new supermax contract? Maybe. Or will he want to prove he can indeed be a top 10-15 player in the NBA? This wasn't a one-time fluke. He really is that good.

Porzingis is harder to read (than the Jays) again. On one hand, he has only 1 ASG in his account. He had huge expectations and hasn't lived up to them. He has also had lots of injuries so maybe he is just happy to be playing. And spent time on bad teams so just happy to be on a winner.

What worries me more about Porzingis is that throughout his career he has put a heavy emphasis on his scoring to determine whether he is being effective or not. He is a score-first player. The rest of his game tends to follow (defense, rebounding) when he is scoring well and drop off when is not scoring well. He has not been an emotionally mature player in his career. So becoming one now in Boston next season would be a big leap from past habits. Not impossible just a big change for him.

[Who]

I have this nagging feeling when I get bullish about how good the Celtics defense can be next season.

That is, can they maintain the defensive intensity / identity with Porzingis who is less committed to defense? Can they maintain that intensity without Smart their most intense and committed defender?

With Porzingis (a solid but not high end defender) and with Brogdon (a now dodgy defensive player) both playing big roles, will they lose some of that defensive intensity?


I would love to see Jaylen & Tatum lead the charge. Tatum is our best defensive player in my book. Jaylen could be a dominant defender with more commitment. I'd love to see them as leaders and franchise players take over that leadership and inspire the rest of the team to high effort defense because if your stars are playing with that effort then the rest of the guys gotta bring it too. However, if they play with solid but not great effort along with Porzingis with solid but not great effort and Brogdon with subpar defense, can Boston be a top notch defensive team? Or will they become even more inconsistent defensively?


I also wonder / worry about the decline in foot-speed. The improvement in size and length is fantastic but it comes with a drop-off in foot-speed.

I don't think Porzingis can defend PFs full time anymore. I am not sure Timelord can. He defends the low quality ones and is an active team defender off of them but can he get low and be stopper on high end PFs.

So that leaves Horford still as our best defensive PF and by a long margin in my book. What if he takes a step back athletically? He is old old. He just turned 37 so he will only be 1-2 months away from being 38 during the playoff run. Can he continue to play such strong defense again next season? Or will there be more decline? How much decline? What happens to our defense if he can no longer be a good defensive PF?

[Goldstar88]

I have this nagging feeling when I get bullish about how good the Celtics defense can be next season.

That is, can they maintain the defensive intensity / identity with Porzingis who is less committed to defense? Can they maintain that intensity without Smart their most intense and committed defender?

With Porzingis (a solid but not high end defender) and with Brogdon (a now dodgy defensive player) both playing big roles, will they lose some of that defensive intensity?


I would love to see Jaylen & Tatum lead the charge. Tatum is our best defensive player in my book. Jaylen could be a dominant defender with more commitment. I'd love to see them as leaders and franchise players take over that leadership and inspire the rest of the team to high effort defense because if your stars are playing with that effort then the rest of the guys gotta bring it too. However, if they play with solid but not great effort along with Porzingis with solid but not great effort and Brogdon with subpar defense, can Boston be a top notch defensive team? Or will they become even more inconsistent defensively?


I also wonder / worry about the decline in foot-speed. The improvement in size and length is fantastic but it comes with a drop-off in foot-speed.

I don't think Porzingis can defend PFs full time anymore. I am not sure Timelord can. He defends the low quality ones and is an active team defender off of them but can he get low and be stopper on high end PFs.

So that leaves Horford still as our best defensive PF and by a long margin in my book. What if he takes a step back athletically? He is old old. He just turned 37 so he will only be 1-2 months away from being 38 during the playoff run. Can he continue to play such strong defense again next season? Or will there be more decline? How much decline? What happens to our defense if he can no longer be a good defensive PF?

This past season Porzingis was one of the top defenders in the league in terms of protecting the rim. Him and Horford are probably best guarding 5's at this point, whereas Rob and Tatum are quicker and better suited to guard modern NBA 4's. The C's had a top 5 defense last year and that's with Smart taking a step backwards in that department. He wasn't nearly as good as years past, whereas Derrick White took a step forward making the All NBA defensive team. I also thought Brogdon defense was solid for the regular season, which makes me wonder if he had not only the elbow issue, but another injury as well during the playoffs. Wasn't his Achilles bothering him at one point during the second half of the year? I'm comfortable with Brown, White, Brogdon, Pritchard taking all the minutes at the guard positions. That's assuming Brad doesn't add anyone else during the offseason.

[hpantazo]

On the other side of the deal if Smart and Adams return to form,  are the Grizzlies the best defensive team in the league? A starting 5 of Smart, Morant, Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams is going to be tough to score on. They will struggle on offense, but that's a top tier defensive team imo.

[Neurotic Guy]

I have this nagging feeling when I get bullish about how good the Celtics defense can be next season.

That is, can they maintain the defensive intensity / identity with Porzingis who is less committed to defense? Can they maintain that intensity without Smart their most intense and committed defender?

With Porzingis (a solid but not high end defender) and with Brogdon (a now dodgy defensive player) both playing big roles, will they lose some of that defensive intensity?


I would love to see Jaylen & Tatum lead the charge. Tatum is our best defensive player in my book. Jaylen could be a dominant defender with more commitment. I'd love to see them as leaders and franchise players take over that leadership and inspire the rest of the team to high effort defense because if your stars are playing with that effort then the rest of the guys gotta bring it too. However, if they play with solid but not great effort along with Porzingis with solid but not great effort and Brogdon with subpar defense, can Boston be a top notch defensive team? Or will they become even more inconsistent defensively?


I also wonder / worry about the decline in foot-speed. The improvement in size and length is fantastic but it comes with a drop-off in foot-speed.

I don't think Porzingis can defend PFs full time anymore. I am not sure Timelord can. He defends the low quality ones and is an active team defender off of them but can he get low and be stopper on high end PFs.

So that leaves Horford still as our best defensive PF and by a long margin in my book. What if he takes a step back athletically? He is old old. He just turned 37 so he will only be 1-2 months away from being 38 during the playoff run. Can he continue to play such strong defense again next season? Or will there be more decline? How much decline? What happens to our defense if he can no longer be a good defensive PF?

I think the answer to your first question depends on how the Smart void is filled.  I should say that I don't think Marcus' leadership was all that effective, but he did have influence on the emotional intensity of the team -- and, like Marcus individually, it was inconsistent.  I think it's hard to predict whether JT is able to raise his leadership role on/off the court and whether others (JB, DW) take on some of that role.  Either way, the subtraction of Smart as an emotional leader may not be a bad thing.  You could FEEL Marcus becoming overly involved in the offense when he shouldn't have; you could feel when Marcus (right around the moment the C's were up double-digits) starts to get cocky with the ball -- behind the backs, unnecessary threading needles, etc.   I'm not sure what happens with leadership next season, but I think there's a good chance the C's will replace Marcus with steadier leadership.

[PAOBoston]

I have this nagging feeling when I get bullish about how good the Celtics defense can be next season.

That is, can they maintain the defensive intensity / identity with Porzingis who is less committed to defense? Can they maintain that intensity without Smart their most intense and committed defender?

With Porzingis (a solid but not high end defender) and with Brogdon (a now dodgy defensive player) both playing big roles, will they lose some of that defensive intensity?


I would love to see Jaylen & Tatum lead the charge. Tatum is our best defensive player in my book. Jaylen could be a dominant defender with more commitment. I'd love to see them as leaders and franchise players take over that leadership and inspire the rest of the team to high effort defense because if your stars are playing with that effort then the rest of the guys gotta bring it too. However, if they play with solid but not great effort along with Porzingis with solid but not great effort and Brogdon with subpar defense, can Boston be a top notch defensive team? Or will they become even more inconsistent defensively?


I also wonder / worry about the decline in foot-speed. The improvement in size and length is fantastic but it comes with a drop-off in foot-speed.

I don't think Porzingis can defend PFs full time anymore. I am not sure Timelord can. He defends the low quality ones and is an active team defender off of them but can he get low and be stopper on high end PFs.

So that leaves Horford still as our best defensive PF and by a long margin in my book. What if he takes a step back athletically? He is old old. He just turned 37 so he will only be 1-2 months away from being 38 during the playoff run. Can he continue to play such strong defense again next season? Or will there be more decline? How much decline? What happens to our defense if he can no longer be a good defensive PF?

My simplistic answer is the team will look a little different and not play the way we have gotten accustomed to them over the last few years. The addition of Porzingis and subtraction of Smart changes that both offensively and defensively. It will just be different style.

Maybe more drop coverage (which they already have been doing for the last two years now since the finals vs GS) but maybe a more balanced offense where it isn’t all perimeter based. The one big positive for me with KP that they didn’t have last year was a safety valve/outlet down low that could help alleviate some of the drive/turnover problems we saw from JT and JB. Horford used to be able to provide that but he’s now become exclusively a 3 pt specialist to an extreme. Only a very small percentage of his shots came at the rim. He only shot 21 FTs….all regular season! Hoping KP can play a little bit more and give them more offensively as a big man so all the weight doesn’t fall on the wings/guards to score.

[gouki88]

I have this nagging feeling when I get bullish about how good the Celtics defense can be next season.

That is, can they maintain the defensive intensity / identity with Porzingis who is less committed to defense? Can they maintain that intensity without Smart their most intense and committed defender?

With Porzingis (a solid but not high end defender) and with Brogdon (a now dodgy defensive player) both playing big roles, will they lose some of that defensive intensity?


I would love to see Jaylen & Tatum lead the charge. Tatum is our best defensive player in my book. Jaylen could be a dominant defender with more commitment. I'd love to see them as leaders and franchise players take over that leadership and inspire the rest of the team to high effort defense because if your stars are playing with that effort then the rest of the guys gotta bring it too. However, if they play with solid but not great effort along with Porzingis with solid but not great effort and Brogdon with subpar defense, can Boston be a top notch defensive team? Or will they become even more inconsistent defensively?


I also wonder / worry about the decline in foot-speed. The improvement in size and length is fantastic but it comes with a drop-off in foot-speed.

I don't think Porzingis can defend PFs full time anymore. I am not sure Timelord can. He defends the low quality ones and is an active team defender off of them but can he get low and be stopper on high end PFs.

So that leaves Horford still as our best defensive PF and by a long margin in my book. What if he takes a step back athletically? He is old old. He just turned 37 so he will only be 1-2 months away from being 38 during the playoff run. Can he continue to play such strong defense again next season? Or will there be more decline? How much decline? What happens to our defense if he can no longer be a good defensive PF?

I think it might not necessarily be correct to conflate Smart's defensive "intensity" with actually being that helpful on that end. I think there were 3-4 Celtics who played better defence than him in the most recent season

[gouki88]

Per premium synergy data, Kristaps was 5th in the NBA on EFG% on contested catch & shoot attempts (60.9%). He also shot 39.7% on 78 pick and pop 3PT attempts.

Love this for our offence!