CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Eddie20 on December 12, 2017, 02:09:06 PM
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
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same issues here as there were over the summer -- what's the likelihood PG resigns here? I think there's a better than 50/50 chance he bolts for free agency.
he's certainly an upgrade over who we'd be sending out (combined) but even though Morris has missed a lot of time, can we thin the ranks of our bigs any further without paying a price? I don't think we can.
if Danny had something up his sleeve to make this deal, get PG to resign with us as well has pick up a solid big man for the bench to replace Morris in the rotation (a very big if that would likely require the exception to get it done) then roll the dice.
a lineup of Kyrie, Hayward, PG, Horford and either Brown or Tatum as the starting 5 would give most other teams fits trying to defend them but we'd probably have issues defending top bigs that can control the boards (Davis, Drummond, Cousins, etc...). not to mention how much will it kill our cap next year is PG is signed --> how far over the luxury tax will we be?
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
Pretty interesting idea, this is something that I've wondered about myself.
You could slot Tatum at the 4, or George at 4, (even if he has voiced displeasure at this,) the system that Brad runs doesn't matter on positional differences.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
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My guess is the Cavs will move the Nets pick and salary for him.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Don't forget that Tatum was the starting 4 before Hayward was hurt. Stevens' believes in position less basketball and having 2 guys like Hayward and George that can play 1-4 (both can be facilitators offensively) seems like a good problem to have. You can start Horford, Hayward, George, Irving, and Brown, while having Tatum as a super sub who can come in for any of the starters, minus Horford, unless we're going ultra-small. Again, good problem to have.
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If he were available for the package the OP suggested, I'm in. I think he'd cost more than Smart, Larkin, Nader, Yabu, and Morris.
Take the talent and figure out the rest later. For at least the next 4 months, we wouldn't have a minutes problem.
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My guess is the Cavs will move the Nets pick and salary for him.
That is also my fear. However, I don't think there is any chance they will move on from George at midseason given what they gave up to get him (and the Brooklyn pick would obviously be a steal for a rental)
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
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https://www.foxsports.com/watch/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd/video/1114871875803
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
12-14 million per year most likely... Anything more than that... Bye Smart... :'( :'( :'( :'(
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
12-14 million per year most likely... Anything more than that... Bye Smart... :'( :'( :'( :'(
Right. So a far cry from the 1/4 price he suggested. Unless he thinks Isaiah will getting north of 45m per year.
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That doesn't help OKC at all.
If I'm OKC, I take the chance that I can re-sign George rather than accept that deal. George isn't the problem on that team. Westbrook, George, and Adams can win games with the right support. The problem with the Thunder is that Melo is hurting more than helping and nobody else on that team is any good. But it's much easier to find better roleplayers and depth than it is to find another player like George.
For our part, you're suggesting that we trade all of our junk for their second-best player. Yabusele, Nader, and Larkin are third-string depth at best. Smart and Morris are backups, and I feel like Smart and Roberson are redundant. That's not an attractive package, even if you consider that George would be a rental for us. They aren't doing that. Maybe they start listening if you dangle that LA/SAC pick, but I'm not sure we want to give up a pretty good future asset for a half-season rental who we probably can't re-sign.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
12-14 million per year most likely... Anything more than that... Bye Smart... :'( :'( :'( :'(
Right. So a far cry from the 1/4 price he suggested. Unless he thinks Isaiah will getting north of 45m per year.
Right, so the guy was wrong w/ his fractions. Let's say Marcus gets $16m per year and IT gets $25m. Do you want to be the team making either of these signings? I don't.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
Those guys signed deals under a cap boom that will have adjusted itself by this summer. Those kinds of deals aren't going to exist this summer with fewer teams having less cap space than the last 2 years.
And Roberson is actually a perfect comparison for Smart. An all-NBA defender who can't shoot, he signed a 3 year $30 million dollar deal in a more hospitable cap space summer than Smart will enjoy. It's totally within reason that Smart could get a similar, $10 million per year deal. And when you figure that an Isaiah max contract would top out (after seasonal raises) at almost $40 mil a year, saying Marcus will cost 1/4 as much isn't very hyperbolic.
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That doesn't help OKC at all.
If I'm OKC, I take the chance that I can re-sign George rather than accept that deal. George isn't the problem on that team. Westbrook, George, and Adams can win games with the right support. The problem with the Thunder is that Melo is hurting more than helping and nobody else on that team is any good. But it's much easier to find better roleplayers and depth than it is to find another player like George.
For our part, you're suggesting that we trade all of our junk for their second-best player. Yabusele, Nader, and Larkin are third-string depth at best. Smart and Morris are backups, and I feel like Smart and Roberson are redundant. That's not an attractive package, even if you consider that George would be a rental for us. They aren't doing that. Maybe they start listening if you dangle that LA/SAC pick, but I'm not sure we want to give up a pretty good future asset for a half-season rental who we probably can't re-sign.
Bingo!
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George will not be a Celtic. Danny is going for it in 19. Favors would be a better fit IMO.
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George will not be a Celtic. Danny is going for it in 19. Favors would be a better fit IMO.
Favors used to be good, but his knees are shot.
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George will not be a Celtic. Danny is going for it in 19. Favors would be a better fit IMO.
Favors used to be good, but his knees are shot.
yeah I don't get that one. I'd rather have Okafor than Favors.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
Those guys signed deals under a cap boom that will have adjusted itself by this summer. Those kinds of deals aren't going to exist this summer with fewer teams having less cap space than the last 2 years.
And Roberson is actually a perfect comparison for Smart. An all-NBA defender who can't shoot, he signed a 3 year $30 million dollar deal in a more hospitable cap space summer than Smart will enjoy. It's totally within reason that Smart could get a similar, $10 million per year deal. And when you figure that an Isaiah max contract would top out (after seasonal raises) at almost $40 mil a year, saying Marcus will cost 1/4 as much isn't very hyperbolic.
we already offered smart more than that
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
lol at this...
as a former okc resident, i can tell you that the city is mostly OU and absolutely hated Smart's years in the state.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
Those guys signed deals under a cap boom that will have adjusted itself by this summer. Those kinds of deals aren't going to exist this summer with fewer teams having less cap space than the last 2 years.
And Roberson is actually a perfect comparison for Smart. An all-NBA defender who can't shoot, he signed a 3 year $30 million dollar deal in a more hospitable cap space summer than Smart will enjoy. It's totally within reason that Smart could get a similar, $10 million per year deal. And when you figure that an Isaiah max contract would top out (after seasonal raises) at almost $40 mil a year, saying Marcus will cost 1/4 as much isn't very hyperbolic.
we already offered smart more than that
I never saw any numbers for what the C's offered Smart. Do you have a link?
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
lol at this...
as a former okc resident, i can tell you that the city is mostly OU and absolutely hated Smart's years in the state.
So does that mean Smart wouldn't be open to re-signing there?
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
lol at this...
as a former okc resident, i can tell you that the city is mostly OU and absolutely hated Smart's years in the state.
So does that mean Smart wouldn't be open to re-signing there?
I would say that he wouldnt factor "college home" as a re-signing factor.. If anything, the biggest factor here would be playing alongside or next to Russ.
Why move just to be a bench player or a non-featured starter?
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It's pretty clear that things aren't working out in OKC and that George will be bolting during the summer. However, what if the thought is to try to salvage him leaving by gaining some value now?
Something along the lines of Smart, Morris, Yabusele, Larkin (eligible to be moved in a couple of days), and Nader work under the cap.
As for OKC, they're able to get Smart, who having played for Oklahoma State, would likely welcome signing there long-term. They also get a good contract in Morris and a prospect in Yabusele. Not the best of deals for George, but beats the alternative in receiving nothing for him. Besides, how many teams have the ability to beat that offer, have the confidence George re-signs, and are in position to win now? Larkin and Nader are salary filler and would likely be waived.
As for us, why not? Smart is looking to get paid and I'm wondering how much he'll command vs how much we're actually willing to pay. I'm confident that the allure of playing for Stevens and alongside Irving, Horford, and Hayward, he apparently is friends with the latter, would be enough to have him strongly consider re-signing in Boston.
lol at this...
as a former okc resident, i can tell you that the city is mostly OU and absolutely hated Smart's years in the state.
So does that mean Smart wouldn't be open to re-signing there?
I would say that he wouldnt factor "college home" as a re-signing factor.. If anything, the biggest factor here would be playing alongside or next to Russ.
Why move just to be a bench player or a non-featured starter?
He wouldn't "move", he would be traded and then re-signing to a role similar to the one here. In fact, he'll probably start as he's better than Roberson.
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George is still a great player, but honestly I feel he's sort of regressed in the past 1.5 seasons.
He doesn't strike me as "superstar" like he was believed to be a few years ago.
Idk, but he leaves the Pacers and they are actually doing fine w/o him, and many Pacers fans complained about him "not being a leader" and how at times he didn't seem to care at all.
I think the biggest problem in OKC is Carmelo Anthony, BUT George has also been really inconsistent and bad at times.
Honestly makes me feel a bit better since it's virtually a given at this point that he's joining LAL next year on a max-deal.
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George will not be a Celtic. Danny is going for it in 19. Favors would be a better fit IMO.
Favors used to be good, but his knees are shot.
yeah I don't get that one. I'd rather have Okafor than Favors.
Favors is for a year rental for the the DPE, not long term. Speculation is that Utah wants to trade him.
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I'm not sure why this would interest the Celtics, with Brown and Tatum playing well, Hayward coming back next year, and George hitting free agency this summer. They'd be gambling big time that George would want to stick around when Hayward gets back and then if he does there would be roster problems on the wing. The alternative is George leaves in free agency and then what was the point of the deal in the first place?
Smart's gone at the end of year the rest is all junk filler. I'd be shocked if that's all it took to get even 1/3 of season for George.
Danny wasn't going to pay IT4 what makes any of us think he's going to pay Marcus?
Because Marcus is going to cost about 1/4 of what Thomas will be asking for.
That's not accurate at all. How much do you think Smart's going to be getting? Now compare that to players like Crabbe, Shumpert, Tyler Johnson, Roberson, etc.
Those guys signed deals under a cap boom that will have adjusted itself by this summer. Those kinds of deals aren't going to exist this summer with fewer teams having less cap space than the last 2 years.
And Roberson is actually a perfect comparison for Smart. An all-NBA defender who can't shoot, he signed a 3 year $30 million dollar deal in a more hospitable cap space summer than Smart will enjoy. It's totally within reason that Smart could get a similar, $10 million per year deal. And when you figure that an Isaiah max contract would top out (after seasonal raises) at almost $40 mil a year, saying Marcus will cost 1/4 as much isn't very hyperbolic.
we already offered smart more than that
I never saw any numbers for what the C's offered Smart. Do you have a link?
no I'm sorry it hasn't been reported, but I do know this to be the case
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In a vacuum, it's a no brainer. Roster depth wouldn't be that big of a problem either. We could sign guys like Monta Ellis, Deron, Barbosa, Gerald Green, Sully etc. Hopefully, the DPE guy will provide some depth as well.
Irving - Rozier - (Kadeem Allen)
Brown - ? ? ? - (Jabari Bird)
George - Semi - Hayward
Tatum - Theis
Horford - Baynes
Having said that, if PG becomes available (btw that's a big if), I bet it's gonna be a difficult desicion for Danny to make. Imo, it all depends on :
1. whether Danny feels confident that PG is gonna re-sign with us next summer
For instance, what happens if LeBron elects to sign with the Lakers? Danny has zero control over LeBron's decision making. If LeBron wants to team up with PG in LA, it seems likely that there is nothing we can do to keep PG in Boston.
2. whether Wyc and the owners would be willing to pay the lux tax
2018-19
Hayward $31,214,295
George $30,300,000 (cap projected to be $101 million, 8-year veteran --> 30% of the cap)
Horford $28,928,710
Kyrie $20,099,189
That's $110,542,195 for 4 players. Not to mention, things are gonna get even worse in 2019-20 when Kyrie is likely to opt out.
George $32,724,000 (we would have his Bird rights --> 8% annual raises)
Hayward $32,700,690
Kyrie $32,400,000 (cap projected to be $108 million, 8-year veteran --> 30% of the cap)
Horford $30,123,015
SUM : $127,947,705 for 4 players!!!! The lux tax is gonna be huge!!!! Not my money of course, just saying that the owners may have second thoughts about the whole thing. I mean, the Warriors may very well be the best team in NBA history. Assuming we trade for PG and then we re-sign him, would we be the favorites in a 7-game series against them?
(For what it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)
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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)
Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.
Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?
The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.
Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.
Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)
Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.
Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?
The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.
Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.
Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
Well, it may be even worse than that.
Assuming we trade for PG, our payroll in 2019-20 will look like this :
1. George $32,724,000
2. Hayward $32,700,690
3. Kyrie $32,400,000
4. Horford $30,123,015
5. Tatum $7,830,000
6. Brown $6,534,829
7. Ojeleye $1,618,520
8. Celtics 2018 pick : let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #29 --> $1,895,400
9. Lakers/Kings pick : since we got both Brown and Tatum at #3, let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #3 once again 8) (in the 2019 draft) --> $7,758,000
Demetrius Jackson $92,857
(I got the rookie scale numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020
SUM : $153,677,311
I'm not including Yabu and Nader cause based on this scenario they are part of the package for PG. Not including other future picks either (Clips, Grizzlies, our own pick in 2019). Let's just assume we fill out the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys and a couple of MLE guys as well.
10. $8,568,000 (Non-Taxpayer MLE in 2018-19) Even if we trade for PG, most likely we are gonna finish the season under the apron.
11. $5,659,000 (Taxpayer MLE in 2019-20)
12. $2,537,964 (10-year vet)
13. $2,537,964
14. $2,537,964
15. $2,537,964
(I got the MLE numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap
SUM : $178,056,167 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If projections hold, the luxury tax threshold in 2019-20 will fall at approximately $129.2 million.
https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/9/28/16382498/nba-salary-cap-projections-2018-2019
$178,056,167 - $129,200,000 = $48,856,167
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
$23.75m for the next $5m.
$26.25m for the next $5m.
$28.75m for the next $5m.
$31.25m for the next $5m.
7.5 + 8.75 + 12.5 + 16.25 + 18.75 + 21.25 + 23.75 + 26.25 + 28.75 + ~24.1 = 187.85
We are talking about $187,851,043.75 in luxury tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So yeah, I guess we won't trade for PG after all. :P :P
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Simple. Money doesn't work for George. Hell, we might struggle to keep Marcus Smart. No less George. So yeah pass. Save that cap room to re-up Kyrie. He obviously fits our franchise like a glove so far.
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Smart will be gone at any scenario. It's only about trade or walk.
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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13
An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon
Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental.
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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13
An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon
Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.
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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13
An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon
Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.
Your points are true.
The question is could they nab anyone near Jabaris upside for a basically PG rental?
I am not sure. And wings are prized, especially if they are talented.
As for Mirza, he only has one year left on a deal and he can always shoot well. So, it's not as bad of a deal as you would think.
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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13
An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon
Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.
Your points are true.
The question is could they nab anyone near Jabaris upside for a basically PG rental?
I am not sure. And wings are prized, especially if they are talented.
As for Mirza, he only has one year left on a deal and he can always shoot well. So, it's not as bad of a deal as you would think.
His upside is there for sure, but the risk with his injury history is immense. Who knows what they can squeeze out of another team. Indy got a really good package (to the surprise of many), maybe OKC can do the same
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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental.
Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased? I mean look at the rumored offer below. More than likely the unnamed starter was Bradley, so you're probably talking about Bradley, Crowder, LAC 1st rd pick, Memphis 1st rd pick, and one of our 1st rd picks down the road.
The Indiana Pacers reportedly turned down a bounty of draft picks and players from the Boston Celtics on draft night in a proposed package that would have sent Paul George to the reigning Atlantic Division champions.
According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman and the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, the Celtics offered three first-round picks and two starters in exchange for George at the 2017 NBA draft on June 22.
Goodman added that Boston did not include the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets first-round pick or the 2018 Los Angeles Lakers/2019 Sacramento Kings first-round selections (acquired through Philadelphia) in the proposal.
Furthermore, Goodman reported Jae Crowder was one of the two starters Boston was willing to part with to snag George.
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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental.
Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased? I mean look at the rumored offer below. More than likely the unnamed starter was Bradley, so you're probably talking about Bradley, Crowder, LAC 1st rd pick, Memphis 1st rd pick, and one of our 1st rd picks down the road.
The Indiana Pacers reportedly turned down a bounty of draft picks and players from the Boston Celtics on draft night in a proposed package that would have sent Paul George to the reigning Atlantic Division champions.
According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman and the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, the Celtics offered three first-round picks and two starters in exchange for George at the 2017 NBA draft on June 22.
Goodman added that Boston did not include the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets first-round pick or the 2018 Los Angeles Lakers/2019 Sacramento Kings first-round selections (acquired through Philadelphia) in the proposal.
Furthermore, Goodman reported Jae Crowder was one of the two starters Boston was willing to part with to snag George.
It was widely reported that Crowder and Smart were the players Indy wanted, along with the 3 non-premium 1st's (Boston's 2018 1st was almost certainly one of them). Boston would have had to move someone else though as Crowder and Smart together weren't enough salary for George
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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)
Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.
Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?
The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.
Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.
Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
Well, it may be even worse than that.
Assuming we trade for PG, our payroll in 2019-20 will look like this :
1. George $32,724,000
2. Hayward $32,700,690
3. Kyrie $32,400,000
4. Horford $30,123,015
5. Tatum $7,830,000
6. Brown $6,534,829
7. Ojeleye $1,618,520
8. Celtics 2018 pick : let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #29 --> $1,895,400
9. Lakers/Kings pick : since we got both Brown and Tatum at #3, let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #3 once again 8) (in the 2019 draft) --> $7,758,000
Demetrius Jackson $92,857
(I got the rookie scale numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020
SUM : $153,677,311
I'm not including Yabu and Nader cause based on this scenario they are part of the package for PG. Not including other future picks either (Clips, Grizzlies, our own pick in 2019). Let's just assume we fill out the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys and a couple of MLE guys as well.
10. $8,568,000 (Non-Taxpayer MLE in 2018-19) Even if we trade for PG, most likely we are gonna finish the season under the apron.
11. $5,659,000 (Taxpayer MLE in 2019-20)
12. $2,537,964 (10-year vet)
13. $2,537,964
14. $2,537,964
15. $2,537,964
(I got the MLE numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap
SUM : $178,056,167 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If projections hold, the luxury tax threshold in 2019-20 will fall at approximately $129.2 million.
https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/9/28/16382498/nba-salary-cap-projections-2018-2019
$178,056,167 - $129,200,000 = $48,856,167
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
$23.75m for the next $5m.
$26.25m for the next $5m.
$28.75m for the next $5m.
$31.25m for the next $5m.
7.5 + 8.75 + 12.5 + 16.25 + 18.75 + 21.25 + 23.75 + 26.25 + 28.75 + ~24.1 = 187.85
We are talking about $187,851,043.75 in luxury tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So yeah, I guess we won't trade for PG after all. :P :P
I think Boston would move Horford if it signed George long term.
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I think the train has left the station on PG13. If the Cavs want to go for it this year and get him, let them. We have to play the long game now that we've seen Tatum and Brown.
I wouldn't mind making moves for Ellis, LouWill, Bogut or Favors.
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Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased?
Because, we do not want to rent a guy who is going to bolt to the Lakers. Also, Ainge has something that a lot of people lack called common sense. Note I am not saying you lack or anyone in this thread. But who is more value down the road? George or the guys who are more likely stay or be here on rookie contracts.
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Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental?
Not sure about that. Kevin Pritchard (the Pacers GM) is on record as saying we never made an offer for PG last summer. That being said, the OKC deal was finalized before July 1 (first day of the free agency). At the time, Danny needed the cap space to go after Hayward.
http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/ride-jmv/kevin-pritchard-opens-about-paul-george-pacers-future-franchise
8:51
- (...) ''what about the Celtics? The Celtics were interested and that's just one of the teams that were mentioned. How much of the stuff that was floating around out there either on draft night or on June the 30th was completely manufactured? How much of that was?''
- (Kevin Pritchard) ''I would say 95% was not real.''
9:51
''At the end of the day, John, we looked at a lot of things. We made it clear what we wanted and it wasn't a huge ask -we knew we couldn't do that- but we went back to every team -including the Eastern conference team you just said (the Celtics)- and they declined to make an offer. (Just to) Make an offer. ''
10:51
''What I don't like is, I get that, you know, you are trying to do what's right for your organization, but don't lie. Don't send things out there that are complete fabrications, that at the end of the day we would have done, but why through it out and try to hurt us know? I don't get it and makes no sense to me.''
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The Thunder are such a roller coaster team this year, I don't think they make any real moves. And even with the up and down season, they would be the 8th seed in the West right now, and I don't think any team behind them realistically finishes the year with a better record than them (assuming they stay relatively healthy). They get to the playoffs and sync at all, they can cause a lot of damage.