I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense. 19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.
I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time. There just aren't enough shots to go around
It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.
This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.
As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.
I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.
As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.
I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.
I tend to agree.
There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player.
Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far. There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot. He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism. Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game.
His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve.
The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas. He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder. There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.
You can kinda say the same for Hayward. What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't? Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator.
I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough. The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down. I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE. Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense. He's very up and down on both ends thus far.
Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.
Tatum has more moves in the post - Brown is physically stronger but his post game mosly just depends on trying to overpower a weaker player and force his shot up. I've yet to see much in the way of actual post moves - Tatum had a plethora of them even when he was in college.
Brown takes a higher percentage of his shots at the rim because he's just not that great from anywhere else. His midrange game is very limited and his perimeter game is mostly limited to open catch and shoot threes. So naturally his percentage of shots at the rim will be higher given that it's always been is greatest strength on offense. By comparison Tatum can score from any where - he's got an excellent midrange game and is a far better outside shooter, he's less restricted to having to score most of his points at the basket.
Look at their shooting percentages though - Brown shot 66% on FG inside 3" and Tatum shot 68%. Brown got to the line at a higher rate then Tatum last year (25% FTR vs 22% FTR) however Tatum in his rookie year got to the line at a higher rate (31%) then Brown ever has over his first three seasons.
Jaylen has no advanced dribble moves - at least none that I've seen over the past 2-3 years. Tatum does, and routinely uses his ball handling skills and footwork to create the space to either get to the basket or get off his jumper. Brown generally is limited to straight drives to the basket, which is one of the key reasons why he's less capable of creating his own shot - he needs to see an open lane or receive an open pass for him to really make something of it.
As for defense, Tatum is without a doubt the better defender - just look at least seasons' stats for both players:
Brown:
Steals: 0.9
Blocks: 0.4
Def Rating: 109
DBPM: -0.6
DRPM: + 0.1 (NBA Rank: 242)
Def Win Shares:0.098 (Team rank: 6th)
Tatum:
Steals: 1.1
Blocks: 0.7
Def Rating: 107
DBPM: 0.6
DRPM: +1.25 (NBA Rank: 82)
Def Win Shares: 0.123 (Team rank: 2)
In his rookie year Tatum actually ranked 7th in the entire league in defensive win shares. Last season he was a better defensive player then Jaylen Brown by every possible measure I can find, and it was just clear from watching the two that Tatum played more consistent on the defense end while also being more versatile defensively due to his combination of length and quickness.
Tatum also had a higher assist rate (10% vs 7.7%) and a lower turnover rate (9.7% vs 10.1%).
His rebound rate is also much higher (10.4% vs 8.7%).
If you calculate their pure offensive efficiency (points per FGA) for their careers Tatum also beats Brown there (1.26 vs 1.23).
I won't go so far as to say that Tatum is a better player in every way, but he's definitely better then Brown in the vast Majority of categories and that's despite the fact that he is a year younger and has a year less NBA experience.