I guess it depends on how you see the rest of the roster. Last year’s Celtics, with Tatum, won 51. But we also know that’s a little misleading. They stunk in the first half of the season, and since making a few roster and attitude changes over about 60 regular-season games they are winning 80% of their games - a 65-win clip.
I’m not sure why anybody should be confident replacing Tatum with a league average SF/PF will knock 15 wins off the current pace. Maybe we aren’t really an 60+ win team - the west coast trip will show us a lot - but we have been now for a good chunk of time. And again I point to the wizards game. We all mock the wizards, and I get that. But they came in with an above-500 record and an average defense.
Right because we've never seen a team lose a top tier SF and replace them with an average SF and drop 15 wins. Oh wait, the Heat replaced Lebron with Deng and were 17 games worse (both teams had Wade and Bosh and many of the same other players). Hmm.
There is a big difference between a top 5 player in the sport and an average player. The difference is immense because the top 5 player is so involved with the team and the team success. The drop off is felt more than a similar gap between lesser important players.
Losing LeBron was not the only change for the Heat! They also lost Ray Allen and Chris Bosh only played 44 games. Wade, who turned 33 and had no three point shot, had a steep decline. Sure, part of that was missing LeBron, but it was also the other guys and age.
The Heat brought in Dragic to replace LeBron’s ball movement but he only played 26 games, so the roster was a mess. They were giving real minutes to Henry Walker, Shawn Williams, and Shabazz Napier.
Net: 26-year old Jaylen is a much better 3-level score than 33 year old Wade, especially given the much much better roster around him.