If Michigan wins they will be 2. They will not only have a championship, but will have better wins. Georgia, for as good as they have looked, has its best win as Clemson ranked 20th. They also beat 22nd Arkansas and 23rd Kentucky. They lost by 17 points as well while Michigan lost a game it was up most of the game before a late collapse against the team ranked 11th (so not a bad loss). Ohio State is currently ranked 7th and Iowa is 13th.
So if Michigan wins it will be 1. Alabama, 2. Michigan and then Georgia and Cincinnati. I suspect the committee will determine that Georgia is appreciably better than Cincinnati and make them 3rd, but not having the championship could lead to Cincinnati being 3rd (the Notre Dame win also is huge in that regard). And I also think there will be discussion about not having Georgia and Alabama have an immediate rematch, also weighing towards Georgia being 3rd with Cincinnati going 4th.
If Iowa wins, then I think it will be Notre Dame getting the 4th spot with Georgia and Cincinnati rematching their bowl game from last year.