Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[Sophomore]

Well with NOLA's loss and Dallas being up 30 on Phoenix, it looks like at this point the worst that can happen barring a colossal Dallas collapse is a three-way tie for the 7th worst record with Memphis, Dallas, and NOLA, meaning that with the coin flips to determine lottery positions we'd have a 66% chance of Memphis ending up pre-lottery with spot number 7 or 8.

I'll take those odds. And then we'd just have to hope that one or two of those teams behind Memphis don't jump into the top-4. That is, unless it is Sacramento jumping to spot 2, 3, or 4. 

Sacto now in a 3-way tie for 12th. According to tankathon that creates a 3.8% chance of jumping over Memphis to pick 2-4. One game left for each team in the 3-way.

[CelticSooner]

So this Memphis pick goes to coin flip if there is a ties correct?

[CelticsElite]

7 looks like a nice spot for it to not convey

[Silky]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

[rondofan1255]

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Chances won't be those because there will be tied records. Utah had 104 chances and Boston had 103 chances to move into Top 3 in 2014. https://www.nba.com/2014/news/04/18/ties-broken-2014-draft-order-official-release/

MEM Loss tonight -> tied with WAS
Win -> tied with NO and potentially Dallas

[smokeablount]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Hope they lose to GS tonight and stay at #7.  It is a good thing bro. 

Welcome to Team Rollover!  There's room on the train for everyone.

[Silky]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Hope they lose to GS tonight and stay at #7.  It is a good thing bro. 

Welcome to Team Rollover!  There's room on the train for everyone.

Hey, I am not sold completely on it yet.

Only because there was a tweet somewhere stating the team wanted it to roll over that I am wavering.

I dont understand the logic of wanting it to roll over, but if Danny says yes, then yes?

[Smartacus]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Hope they lose to GS tonight and stay at #7.  It is a good thing bro. 

Welcome to Team Rollover!  There's room on the train for everyone.

Hey, I am not sold completely on it yet.

Only because there was a tweet somewhere stating the team wanted it to roll over that I am wavering.

I dont understand the logic of wanting it to roll over, but if Danny says yes, then yes?

I definitely understand the logic of wanting it to convey from Memphis' perspective.

Their best course would be to convey the pick to Boston, trade Conley in the off season (Feeling good that you let him become the All Time scorer in Memphis history by not trading him at the deadline), Give Jaren Jackson all the time that he needs, tank for a top 3 pick in 2020. Build around the top pick and Jackson Jr.

As for our perspective, I'd say we're betting on disaster. Memphis has vacillated between a bottom tier team and a fringe playoff contender these past 5 years. But after losing Gasol and possibly Conley in what way could we conceivably expect them to be any better this time next year? They would have less talent than Phoenix.

We would most likely be looking at either a better pick in 2020 (1-6 Protected) or the lotto ticket unprotected in 2021.

[Silky]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Hope they lose to GS tonight and stay at #7.  It is a good thing bro. 

Welcome to Team Rollover!  There's room on the train for everyone.

Hey, I am not sold completely on it yet.

Only because there was a tweet somewhere stating the team wanted it to roll over that I am wavering.

I dont understand the logic of wanting it to roll over, but if Danny says yes, then yes?

I definitely understand the logic of wanting it to convey from Memphis' perspective.

Their best course would be to convey the pick to Boston, trade Conley in the off season (Feeling good that you let him become the All Time scorer in Memphis history by not trading him at the deadline), Give Jaren Jackson all the time that he needs, tank for a top 3 pick in 2020. Build around the top pick and Jackson Jr.

As for our perspective, I'd say we're betting on disaster. Memphis has vacillated between a bottom tier team and a fringe playoff contender these past 5 years. But after losing Gasol and possibly Conley in what way could we conceivably expect them to be any better this time next year? They would have less talent than Phoenix.

We would most likely be looking at either a better pick in 2020 (1-6 Protected) or the lotto ticket unprotected in 2021.

Memohis and Jonas Valanciunas are in an interesting positon as well.

I really like Jonas as an old school big body, he is very similar to baynes, only younger, and more mobile.

The potential pairing of JJJ and Jonas in the frontcourt could be pretty good, but then Rabb has been looking nice as a starter as well.

I also really like Wright from back in his college days, really smart player and a guy I wish the Celtics could somehow get to backup Irving.

[BringToughnessBack]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

[smokeablount]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

[Fafnir]

Jonas more mobile than Baynes?

Jonas has his positives, but he's pretty simlar to Kanter in my eyes.

Baynes is a large positive defensively on the court, in large part because he gets to the right spots even when attacked. Jonas is a net negative defensively to the point that his scoring and rebounding are largely offset.

Anyways its not a matter of whether the pick will be a premium one going forward, we KNOW its not going to be a premium one given the assessment of the 9th slot in this draft. More than that I think its just the asset diversity of already having 3 picks this draft, better to have a spread.

Teams rarely want 3 rookies from the same class on their team, let alone 4!!

[Moranis]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

It works both ways, which is why the value of those future picks just isn't as much as many in this thread have been saying.  Sometimes the unprotected picks get more valuable and sometimes they get less valuable.  Memphis has a decent path to not being terrible, even in the next season or two.  We've seen 2 recent examples of teams turning over their roster completely (or nearly completely) in 2 seasons and being a playoff team (Brooklyn) or a near playoff team (Sacramento).  Yes, both Brooklyn and Sacramento were bad for longer than 2 years, but Sacramento still had Cousins and a bunch of vets on its roster not that long ago and Brooklyn  wasn't getting draft picks until recently.  The path to get respectable is fairly clear for teams, they just have to not mess it up.  Now maybe Memphis messes it up, but they have a top 5 pick on the roster, they will have a top 8 pick this year if it doesn't convey, they have Conley who has trade value, as well as Jonas.  They have other young players and they have tradeable contracts which they can use in trades to allow teams to dump salary and pick up future assets (like the Nets did in the Russell trade).

[BringToughnessBack]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

But the Nets situation was different. They had all those big salaries on the books and no chance at replenishing their coffers due to that. Memphis will be free and clean after next year and can sign 2 big stars. To me, the situations are entirely different.

Not saying we cannot get lucky 21..anything can happen but not counting on it as a sure thing either. There is risk/reward in any scenario and maybe the chance to get lucky in 21 with a top 3 pick is greater risk/reward scenario then a 9 pick this year, even if bad odds of doing so.

[smokeablount]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

But the Nets situation was different. They had all those big salaries on the books and no chance at replenishing their coffers due to that. Memphis will be free and clean after next year and can sign 2 big stars. To me, the situations are entirely different.

Not saying we cannot get lucky 21..anything can happen but not counting on it as a sure thing either. There is risk/reward in any scenario and maybe the chance to get lucky in 21 with a top 3 pick is greater reward then a 9 pick this year, even if bad odds of doing so.

Do you really believe Memphis of all places is going to add 2 big stars when their market sucks and their team sucks? 

I'd say it's 2-3x more likely that the pick conveys to us in 2021 and lands #1 than that Memphis dream scenario is.