ESPN Radio: Is Paul Pierce a HOF'er?

[bbc3341]

Pierce is "on track" to be a first ballot HOFer. There are some qualifiers, like if he plays out his career in Boston and the C's have continued playoff success... then I don't see how you keep him out. To me, winning a title has helped a lot of media types see what we've known for a long, long time, that he's one of the top 10 players in the league. I would put Pierce above Ray Allen but below KG simply because KG has been one of the top 5 players for so long... so Pierce needs to play out his career before we "know" like we do about Shaq, Kobe, LeBron or KG, but he is on pace to be right there, 1st ballot...

[paintitgreen]

For those of you who don't know, Basketball-reference.com has a pretty accurate formula for Hall of Fame Probability based on height, career averages in points, rebounds and assists, All Star Game selections, MVP awards and titles. Right now, Pierce's probability is 0.9512, 9th among active players.

According to the site, using 50% as the dividing line, 640 players from their sample of 668 were correctly classified. 72 players were above 50% probability, 596 were below. Of the 72 players with above 50% probability, 61 were in the Hall, 11 were not (some example - DJ, Chet Walker, Bob Dandridge). There were also 17 players with probabilities below 50% who were in the Hall (some example - Joe Dumars, K.C. Jones, Earl Monroe, Calvin Murphy).

It seems from looking at it, though, that 65% is the better cutoff mark to pretty much guarantee the Hall. Only 2 Hall-eligible players with probabilities above 65% aren't in the Hall of Fame - Mitch Richmond, who is at 0.7362 but just became eligible last year, and Jo Jo White, by far the highest snub, with an 85.71% probability. Guy played 11 full seasons, averaged 17.2 points, 4 rebounds and 4.9 assists, made 7 All Star teams, won 2 titles and a Finals MVP. I just hope Pierce doesn't follow the footsteps of his fellow Jayhawk-turned-Celtic.

There are 22 guys with probabilities of 100%. In order: Russell, Kareem, Jordan, Wilt, Magic, Larry, Pettit, Cousy, Shaq, Duncan, Karl Malone, Oscar, Moses, Kobe, Havlicek, Iverson, Hakeem, Barkley, KG, West, Dr. J and David Robinson.

Back to the current list - here's the order of active players above .500 probability. Only players who have played more than 5 seasons are on the list. The top of the list pretty much concurs with the lists of locks, with one huge exception:

1. Shaq    1.0000
2. Duncan  1.0000
3. Kobe    1.0000
4. Iverson 1.0000
5. Garnett 1.0000
6. Dirk    0.9993
7. Nash    0.9991
8. Carter  0.9528
9. Pierce  0.9512
10. Ray    0.9316
11. T-Mac  0.8780
12. Kidd   0.8702
13. Webber 0.6972
14. G Hill 0.6831
15. Arenas 0.6078

For the record, Lebron would be at 0.9727, ahead of Carter and Pierce.

I simply cannot understand, though, how Vince Carter has 95% probability of making the Hall of Fame. It just seems incorrect to me. Rest of it looks good. 5 surefire locks - Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, KG, AI. Next two being Dirk and Nash makes sense, they've both won MVPs, I'm actually surprised they're not locks already. Then having Pierce and Ray - great careers capped off by titles - makes sense. But Vince Carter?

For the record, I think the first 7 will all make it, as will Pierce. Ray I think has a good chance but 93% does seem a bit high to me. I don't think Carter should make it but I do think McGrady and Kidd belong in the Hall. I don't think Webber and Grant Hill should be Hall of Famers based on their pro careers but combining in college, maybe. And Arenas I don't think should be there at all. I'm pretty surprised he's ahead of Tony Parker (who's currently at 0.3858), Mourning (0.3362), Chauncey (0.0514) and Manu (0.0510). The list obviously has problems since Marbury (0.2819) and Francis (0.2308) are way ahead of Chauncey, Manu and Sheed (0.0283). For the record, Cassell is at 25%.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

[Roy Hobbs]

I think Ray will make it, as well.  8-time all-star, NBA champion, and in all likelihood, the most prolific three point shooter of all time.

[paintitgreen]

Ray, I'm not so sure about, though he's put up good numbers in past years. He's been maybe 3rd team once? Anyways, he's one of the purest shooters so I think he is a question mark, and validate his career more with another ring, and another awesome season.

Ray's been an All Star 8 times, Third Team once, Second Team once. He finished top ten in MVP balloting in 04-05. He has 18227 career points, and only one Hall-eligible player with 20,000 points in the NBA is not in the Hall - Tom Chambers (20,049, a number Allen can pass within the next two years). By the end of next season, Ray should be in the Top 50 on the all-time NBA scoring list. I think Pierce is ahead of him, but yeah, I think Ray's a Hall of Famer. Is Reggie Miller a Hall of Famer? 25000 career points.

[Bahku]

I might step on some toe's by speaking my mind regarding this!

In my mind, if Pierce is HoF matirial but DJ isnt (or lets say Pierce gets in before DJ, if he ever gets in) then id find that beyond distastefull, no disrepect to our Captain, but over the course of an entire carrer i would say DJ diserves it more than Pierce currently does.

Do i hope both of them gets into the hall? yes, but i do hope DJ gets in there before the captain

I certainly want DJ to make it into the Hall, and it's a travesty that he didn't get there this year especially. However, I'm not quite sure I agree with the sentiment that DJ deserves it more than Paul ... and I'm curious as to why you see it that way.

DJ was not a Celtic for anywhere near as long as Paul has been, was not a Celtic for his entire career, (like Paul has been, and most likey will be), did not put up the stats that Pierce has already, did not carry a franchise by himself for a decade, and on and on.

Like I said, I hope DJ gets in as much as anyone does, but I wouldn't say he deserves it more than the Truth ... in fact, I would say that of the two, Pierce is the most deserving, and this isn't a "new-school" thing, as I've been a die-hard Celtic fan for over 40 years.

Why i think DJ diserves it more? truth be told (no phun intended) it's absolutly got something to do with my dad, my dad worshiped DJ for his time with the Celtics and i guess that carry's on, i was very young during the Bird era, so my memorys are based on the small glimpses of images i can remember from going to the garden as a 4-5yr old, watching old BetaMax tapes with my dad of old games and listening to storys and my dad's facial expression would allways light up to its brightest when he was talking about the time he meet DJ (and Bill Russel) in boston.

You have to imagin a father looking back at old baby pictures from 20-30 years ago, you can see that glow of pure happyness around the person allmost like a aura, my dad gets that when you get him going on old times in Boston, meeting my mom, seeing my birth, and the times he meet DJ and Bill Russel

As everything on this site, its got something to do with feelings (thats why i said "i might end up stepping on some toes" because i know most boston sports fans, adore the players that grows up and retires a boston player that most, and DJ dosnt fit that catagory, and that dosnt take into account what Paul has brought to the city of Boston this year) i know DJ wasnt a life long celtic, i know he wasnt a "core" part of the team that grew to a championship contender during the 80's, but to me DJ is and allways will be the one i'll remember the most vividly from those teams!

Anyway wanted to post some more stuff that went though my head about this topic but it's getting late (2:47 at night) and the baby's asleep again (yeah i log on my computer in the middle of the night to check celticsblog after the baby has woken up and its my turn to get her to sleep again, might aswell use the time for something)

Anywho, feel free to ask aditional questions if your not satisfied with my answers or something was left completly unanswered.

//Dybdal

I hear ya, Dybdal ... and those are certainly great reasons. I, too, have many warm memories of DJ and just plain have always loved the guy! Bird always said that DJ was his favorite guy to play with, and that's a pretty decent recommendation as well.

I loved the energy DJ brought to the game, and the way he could travel from hoop to hoop before any other player knew where he was. Every so often he'd just get the ball on one end of the floor, take off like a bolt, and completely burn everyone and get the ball in the hoop with what seemed like four strides ... like he barely touched the floor! His personality was even more endearing, and you couldn't help but like the guy.

Anyway ... I wasn't trying to belittle your post, and you did preface it quite clearly, I just feel that Pierce is as deserving as DJ of a HOF nod, and has given as much to this city and franchise as most of the greatest Celtics. Great answer, though, and I enjoyed your explanation ... thank you for taking the time to do so. TP for your thoughtful reply!

[nickagneta]

The Hall should right a few injustices when Pierce goes in, because he will be going in. Send in DJ and JoJo the same year! Make a complete lovefest of underappreciated Celtics that deserve to be in the Hall all going in at once.

Little thing to think about Paul Pierce's Hall credentials. He is now an NBA Finals MVP. Here's a list of all the NBA Finals MVPs that are not in the Hall.

JoJo White - 1976
Dennis Johnson - 1979
Cedric Maxwell - 1981
Michael Jordan - 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998
Tim Duncan - 1999, 2003, 2005
Shaquille O'Neal - 2000, 2001, 2002
Chauncey Billups - 2004
Dwayne Wade - 2006
Tony Parker - 2007
Paul Pierce - 2008

MJ, Shaq, TD, are all Hall givens. I can't see Cedric or Chauncey ever getting in. IMO DJ and JoJo deserve to be in but probably won't get in or will much later down the line. DWade, Parker still have long careers ahead of them to prove if they are deserving but so far are off to good starts.

That leaves the Truth. Pierce is a better player than JoJo, Cedric, Chauncey, and DJ and has mcuh better credentials than Parker and Wade as of right now.

I don't see the Hall not putting him in considering he shined most on the largest stage and has the numbers to back up the rest of the argument. Give him a ring or two more, which considering the landscape of the NBA seems quite possible, and he is a shoe in.

[Roy Hobbs]

Nice sentiment, nick, but I hope like heck that JoJo and D.J. (through his family) don't have to wait another 8 - 10 years for their respective enshrinements.

[nickagneta]

Nice sentiment, nick, but I hope like heck that JoJo and D.J. (through his family) don't have to wait another 8 - 10 years for their respective enshrinements.

So do I, Roy, so do I. But if JoJo isn't in yet, he isn't going in probably for a long time if ever.

The thing I don't understand is how the people who vote can put in Joe Dumars and yet excluded JoJo. Here are links to their stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dumarjo01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whitejo01.html

JoJo's #s are better as good or better than Dumars' #'s in just about every category. JoJo's playoff #'s are much better than Dumars'. At basketballreference's Hall of Fame probability area both DJ and JoJo have higher numbers than Dumars, JoJo's much higher. And JoJo had an a much better college career as well.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

Yet he is in and those guys aren't.
Makes no sense to me.

[witkin]

Paul has many years left of playing.
The better Boston cause is to put Jim Rice in the Hall of Fame.

[Brickowski]

One more championship, 20,000 points, and a couple more outstanding years like the one he had this year, and he's in.

[zerophase]

i don't know about this one. i think celtics fans or fans of any team overrate their players. if u say that pierce is hof, then you could make the case for half the allstars in their prime in the league today.

I disagree.  Pierce is 9th among active players in points scored and 6th among active players in scoring average.  Amongst those who have averaged more points per game, only Shaq and Kobe have titles.

I like Paul's credentials.  I think he deserves enshrinement, although the way the Hall of Fame works, I doubt he gets in on the first ballot.

i think that if he makes it in, it'll def be multiple years after his retirement. it won't be as quick as say duncan.

[BballTim]

  Maybe people need to re-examine the way they look at Pierce. He just outplayed the "best player on the planet" who's playing the best ball of his career with an injured knee.

[Donoghus]

Pierce still has plenty of good years in front of him.  (Barring injury).

When all is said and done and the numbers are finalized, Pierce will be a HOFer.

[Rizzo]

I actually just wrote a quick article about the Big 3 and them being Hall of Famers. Check it out!

[Sweet17]

PP needs another championship at least to make the hall. Even then I am not sure he makes it.

The hall nowadays is chock full of college coaches and other 'contributors' its hard to make it as an NBA player. To be honest I think it's a bit better to make it up in the C's rafters. The C's have an extended family thing going - that's alot nicer. I think everyone in life wants to be part of something "bigger." The HOF is stuck out there in Springfield and you might go there once for the ceremony or whatever..but big deal.

But as a Celtic great he can go to games become a scout or commentator or coach or GM..etc. I think he probably doesn't make it but the basketball HOF is not all that great. If I had to choose between being a Celtic great and not making the HOF or being a say Sacramento King great and making the hall.. I would much rather be a Celtic great.

Pete