Sox gives Porcello 4 year, $82.5 million extension

[Roy H.]

Rick Porcello won't make his Red Sox debut until Wednesday, but that didn't stop the team from signing him to a 4-year extension. The 26-year-old will earn $20M in 2016 and '17, and $21M in '18 and '19, plus a $500K signing bonus, according to multiple reports.

$20+ million per year for a guy who isn't a clear #1 or #2 doesn't seem like a good value to me.

[Tr1boy]

He better go 18-4 or something this year

[Tr1boy]

I mean he has the tools to be an ace. He just has to put it all together. Hopefully he is stronger this season

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqKogGIDqU8

[Donoghus]

Wow.  They're certainly banking on some high level future production there.

He's only 26 so, ideally, they're locking him in for what should be his prime years.

[byennie]

This is one of the moments when it helps to be a big budget team. He's about as likely as anyone in the league to give a steady 30 starts and 12-15 wins through his prime years, and that's probably enough for the Sox to live with the expense. There's also at least X% chance that he translates his ability into real #1 starter level, at which point it will actually be a good value down the line.

I have to think that the Sox calculate these things in terms of $$ per production. By limiting it to 4 years, they know there are no risky years at the end (e.g. the 5th-6th years of Lester's deal). And at the same time they are paying about 80% of the yearly rate for a top tier guy.

$80M for say 60 wins over 4 years (15-15-15-15)?
vs.
$155 for maybe 85 wins (17-16-15-14-12-11) if Lester slows down a little in a few years?

Numbers obviously not scientific, but that type of thinking ends up with $1.3M per win versus $1.8M per win, and a much bigger gap if Lester breaks down or Porcello makes the leap. (Obviously there's a chance of the opposite where Porcello regresses and Lester gets better with age, although I think it's much less likely).

[Tr1boy]

This is one of the moments when it helps to be a big budget team. He's about as likely as anyone in the league to give a steady 30 starts and 12-15 wins through his prime years, and that's probably enough for the Sox to live with the expense. There's also at least X% chance that he translates his ability into real #1 starter level, at which point it will actually be a good value down the line.

I have to think that the Sox calculate these things in terms of $$ per production. By limiting it to 4 years, they know there are no risky years at the end (e.g. the 5th-6th years of Lester's deal). And at the same time they are paying about 80% of the yearly rate for a top tier guy.

$80M for say 60 wins over 4 years (15-15-15-15)?
vs.
$155 for maybe 85 wins (17-16-15-14-12-11) if Lester slows down a little in a few years?

Numbers obviously not scientific, but that type of thinking ends up with $1.3M per win versus $1.8M per win, and a much bigger gap if Lester breaks down or Porcello makes the leap. (Obviously there's a chance of the opposite where Porcello regresses and Lester gets better with age, although I think it's much less likely).

good call. 

But 20 million a year imo is money for ace pitchers

Porcello needs to win 17-18 and not go 14-11 like he has throughout his career