The Sox are officially after Adrian Gonzalez

[winsomme]

I guess I would also sum it up like this. If you're not going to go after a truly elite bat like Cabrera, then IMO just sign Bay.

he's in the same ballpark as A-Gon and then you keep your prospects.

but that said, I would overpay to get Cabrera (or Mauer or Hanley).

Any way you slice it, however, they need another big bat for sure. so I guess I wouldn't be too upset with A-Gon. maybe he would blossom into a truly elite hitter in Boston.

I think you're really underselling Gonzalez.  He was 7th in all of baseball in terms of OPS, despite playing in a pitcher's park.  He's also a very good fielder.

Well there are many hitters I would prefer over A-Gon. I can't say the same for Cabrera.

I just don't think you can look at OPS alone. BA is the stat IMO that shows the guys that can really hit.

[winsomme]

Also want the Righty bat.....there's really a lot of reason to target Cabrera if you are going to part with top, top prospects...

but it's all relative. I know it seems I'm down on A-Gon, but only in relation to a few other players....he certainly would help our lineup which needs a big boost in the middle any way you look at it.

[Tr1boy]

Bucholz, Kelly and reddick or westmoreland (no ellsbury + bucholz)

Thats what will get it done imo.

Gonzo has great power + plate discipline(walks)

I think its important before they try to do this deal they need to lock him up to a longterm deal. 9 Year 171 million type deal

[Brickowski]

The Sox don't want Cabrera, they want Adrian Gonzalez.

Everyone is blowing smoke at this point.  I predict that Adrian Gonzalez will come to Boston, and Buchholz, Ellsbury and at least one other prospect are going to S.D.  And it will happen sooner rather than later.

[shookones99]

The Sox don't want Cabrera, they want Adrian Gonzalez.

Everyone is blowing smoke at this point.  I predict that Adrian Gonzales will come to Boston, and Buchholz, Ellsbury and at least one other prospect are going to S.D.  And it will happen sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately I think your right

[yall hate]

The sox arent going to trade Ells and Buch in the same deal.  talentwise it doesnt make much sense (unless you believe Buch is severely overrated) and costwise it doesnt make sense (Buch is cost controlled for 5 more years, Ells for 4)

[Chris]

The more I think about it, I don't know why San Diego would even be interested in Ellsbury in a deal like this, over some of the younger prospects.  He is 1 year away from arbitration, and he is a Boras guy, meaning he will become less of a bargain very quickly. 

[Fafnir]

The more I think about it, I don't know why San Diego would even be interested in Ellsbury in a deal like this, over some of the younger prospects.  He is 1 year away from arbitration, and he is a Boras guy, meaning he will become less of a bargain very quickly. 

I don't seem them dealing Gonzalez at all honestly.

[Brickowski]

The more I think about it, I don't know why San Diego would even be interested in Ellsbury in a deal like this, over some of the younger prospects.  He is 1 year away from arbitration, and he is a Boras guy, meaning he will become less of a bargain very quickly. 

Because he's a good player and the Padres need to sell tickets after trading away their best and most popular player.

To refuse to give Ellsbury in the deal would be like the Celtics turning down the KG trade because they didn't want to part with Ryan Gomes.

What's holding up the deal IMHO is Texas, which may not be willing to take Lowell due to medical concerns.

[Chris]

The more I think about it, I don't know why San Diego would even be interested in Ellsbury in a deal like this, over some of the younger prospects.  He is 1 year away from arbitration, and he is a Boras guy, meaning he will become less of a bargain very quickly. 

I don't seem them dealing Gonzalez at all honestly.

Yeah, I don't see it happening either...well, at least right now.  

If a new GM comes in and trades their 27 year old homegrown star, who is signed for another two years, to the team he just came from, before they even play a game...well, that is not a good way to start.  However, if they are 12 games out of first in July, and some teams want to start a bidding war, because they need that big bat, then I think something could go down.

Ultimately, I think the Sox are pretty close to done this offseason.  They will sign another reliever or two, and perhaps get a utility infielder, but I expect the Sox to go into the season with the core they have right now.  Kotchman will start at first against right handers, and Martinez will start against left handers (with Varitek catching).  And the Sox will hope that the pitching can carry them, and the right opportunity will present itself.  Otherwise, they will wait until next winter, and throw a ton of money at Mauer and Crawford, hoping they could get one of them.  

[nickagneta]

I think the closer Gonzalez gets to free agency the less San Diegio is going to get offered for Gonzalez because the whole league knows they will need to deal him because they can't afford him. OTOH, the longer they wait to deal him as time closes in on a trading deadline the more he will be worth because of his ability to effect a pennant race and World Series if dealt to the right contender.

So now San Diego has to weigh the risk of the chance of Gonzalez getting hurt or seriously slumping and in turn hurting his trade value versus the reward of having to maybe take less to avoid that risk. I think right now they look at it as, if they were to trade him at the trade dealine this year what would they get? Well, that's what they want now because the risk of his slumping so bad or getting hurt are lessen by the amount of time there is between then and now.

That might be his peak in regard to return on the dollar for his worth and I think the want to maximize that return whether he is dealt now or then. After the trade deadline and going into next season, his value starts to drop, much like Halladay's did. So it should be interesting to see what is going to happen.

One thing not in the Sox favor is Hoyer taking over the Padres. He can't lose credibility with the fanbase by trading his best player to the franchise he came from without looking like he raped that team in the deal.

[Chris]

I think the closer Gonzalez gets to free agency the less San Diegio is going to get offered for Gonzalez because the whole league knows they will need to deal him because they can't afford him. OTOH, the longer they wait to deal him as time closes in on a trading deadline the more he will be worth because of his ability to effect a pennant race and World Series if dealt to the right contender.

This is why I think this years trade deadline is going to be the time.  Right now, its just a little too early.  There is not enough of a buzz, teams are not desperate, and Hoyer needs to at least look like he is trying to work things out so they can keep him.  However, in July, there will be teams drooling over him for the stretch run, with another year left on his deal.  But then if they wait until next winter, the value is going to plummet, because he will then be just a one year rental.

[winsomme]

I think the closer Gonzalez gets to free agency the less San Diegio is going to get offered for Gonzalez because the whole league knows they will need to deal him because they can't afford him. OTOH, the longer they wait to deal him as time closes in on a trading deadline the more he will be worth because of his ability to effect a pennant race and World Series if dealt to the right contender.

This is why I think this years trade deadline is going to be the time.  Right now, its just a little too early.  There is not enough of a buzz, teams are not desperate, and Hoyer needs to at least look like he is trying to work things out so they can keep him.  However, in July, there will be teams drooling over him for the stretch run, with another year left on his deal.  But then if they wait until next winter, the value is going to plummet, because he will then be just a one year rental.

trade deadline worries as a plan in baseball because so many teams still are thinking they are in the playoff hunt at that point and not willing to make moves.

honestly, now is the time to deal if it's really in the cards IMO.

I think we just all need to be okay with overpaying for the right guy. you almost have to overpay - especially for a bat. a "fixture of your order" type guy is the hardest thing to get right now, so you really need to overpay to get it....

[Chris]

I think the closer Gonzalez gets to free agency the less San Diegio is going to get offered for Gonzalez because the whole league knows they will need to deal him because they can't afford him. OTOH, the longer they wait to deal him as time closes in on a trading deadline the more he will be worth because of his ability to effect a pennant race and World Series if dealt to the right contender.

This is why I think this years trade deadline is going to be the time.  Right now, its just a little too early.  There is not enough of a buzz, teams are not desperate, and Hoyer needs to at least look like he is trying to work things out so they can keep him.  However, in July, there will be teams drooling over him for the stretch run, with another year left on his deal.  But then if they wait until next winter, the value is going to plummet, because he will then be just a one year rental.

trade deadline worries as a plan in baseball because so many teams still are thinking they are in the playoff hunt at that point and not willing to make moves.

honestly, now is the time to deal if it's really in the cards IMO.

I think we just all need to be okay with overpaying for the right guy. you almost have to overpay - especially for a bat. a "fixture of your order" type guy is the hardest thing to get right now, so you really need to overpay to get it....

Are you looking at this from the Sox perspective or the Padres?  Because I completely agree that the Sox should be doing everything they can to do this deal right now, however, my point was that there is very little reason for the Padres to pull the trigger now.  The chances of Gonzalez' value declining before the deadline are pretty slim, and they don't make up the bad press they would get for dealing him right now (not to mention the extra cash they will get from filling more seats for the first couple of months of the season).

Any deal the Sox have on the table right now will likely still be there in July...but in July there might be 5 more teams bidding.  Really, San Diego has no reason to pull the trigger on this early.

[Vermont Green]

What's holding up the deal IMHO is Texas, which may not be willing to take Lowell due to medical concerns.

There is a lot that would point to this being true.  Hard to imagine the brain-trust of the Red Sox trading Lowell for a prospect at catcher if they didn't have something pretty solid in mind to back fill the open position.  Of course Casey Kotchman could be the plan but I gotta think the Sox are aiming a lot higher than that.

I would say that for sure there is something in the works after the Lowell trade and it could very well be A-Gonz but I wouldn't be surprised if it was something altogether unexpected either.