The Sox are officially after Adrian Gonzalez

[Big_Matt34]

You mean other than Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Garcia, Trot Nixon, Kelly Shoppach, Tim Naehring, Wade Boggs, Nomar Garciaparra, Scott Cooper, Mo Vaughn,.......

You might want to revisit that last statement. That's off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a ton more.

Under Theo they have drafted/developed Ellsbury/Pedroia/Brandon Moss/Jed Lowrie/David Murphy, he didnt even sign Hanley or draft Youkilis/Sanchez, now if you wanna give him credit for helping develop those players ok.

Now lets compare how many pitchers he has drafted/developed, Papelbon/Lester/Bard/Buchholz/Cla Merdedith/Craig Hanson(If i put Moss down gotta put him)Michael Bowden/Masterson/Kason Gabbard and while he didnt draft/sign them he helped develop Delcarmen and Anibal Sanchez. I will say its starting to turn around but theyve just been flat out better at developing pitchers than hitts over Theos tenure here.

[Fan from VT]

What they are saying about Westmoreland this year they said about Anderson last year and Buchholz the year before. I think it's crazy to say anyone is off limits, especially for someone who if they play the next 10 years here could rack up 350 HRs and 1200 RBIs

Even after Lars 2008 season there were alot of doubters, he hadnt really developed power and there were questions about if he ever would, and he was a subpar defensive first basemen, alot of scouts figured he would end up at DH. Westmoreland hit for average, some power, took walks, stole bases, played great defense (in the short time he played OF before getting hurt). As position prospects they arent really close.

All that being said i'd give him up, but id rather not, and reports have come out since the trade deadline that he is basically untouchable. They will most likely be able to keep one of Kelly/Westmoreland, and id prefer it be Westmoreland. Red Sox develop alot of good pitching prospects, its very rare for them to have an elite position prospect.

You mean other than Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Garcia, Trot Nixon, Kelly Shoppach, Tim Naehring, Wade Boggs, Nomar Garciaparra, Scott Cooper, Mo Vaughn,.......

You might want to revisit that last statement. That's off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a ton more.

and don't forget Phil Plantier who, when i was about 8, was the next ted williams

[nickagneta]

You mean other than Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Garcia, Trot Nixon, Kelly Shoppach, Tim Naehring, Wade Boggs, Nomar Garciaparra, Scott Cooper, Mo Vaughn,.......

You might want to revisit that last statement. That's off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a ton more.

Under Theo they have drafted/developed Ellsbury/Pedroia/Brandon Moss/Jed Lowrie/David Murphy, he didnt even sign Hanley or draft Youkilis/Sanchez, now if you wanna give him credit for helping develop those players ok.

Now lets compare how many pitchers he has drafted/developed, Papelbon/Lester/Bard/Buchholz/Cla Merdedith/Craig Hanson(If i put Moss down gotta put him)Michael Bowden/Masterson/Kason Gabbard and while he didnt draft/sign them he helped develop Delcarmen and Anibal Sanchez. They have been better at drafting and developing pitchers than hitters, it seems to be starting to turn around now but Westmoreland is the best position prospect they have had in awhile.

But it's pretty hard to say its a rare occurrence is the point I am making. You were making a good point you just slipped into some major league hyperbole there.

TP for the very good point and as always from you Matt, some very intelligent baseball thoughts.

[Roy Hobbs]

What they are saying about Westmoreland this year they said about Anderson last year and Buchholz the year before. I think it's crazy to say anyone is off limits, especially for someone who if they play the next 10 years here could rack up 350 HRs and 1200 RBIs

Even after Lars 2008 season there were alot of doubters, he hadnt really developed power and there were questions about if he ever would, and he was a subpar defensive first basemen, alot of scouts figured he would end up at DH. Westmoreland hit for average, some power, took walks, stole bases, played great defense (in the short time he played OF before getting hurt). As position prospects they arent really close.

All that being said i'd give him up, but id rather not, and reports have come out since the trade deadline that he is basically untouchable. They will most likely be able to keep one of Kelly/Westmoreland, and id prefer it be Westmoreland. Red Sox develop alot of good pitching prospects, its very rare for them to have an elite position prospect.

You mean other than Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Garcia, Trot Nixon, Kelly Shoppach, Tim Naehring, Wade Boggs, Nomar Garciaparra, Scott Cooper, Mo Vaughn,.......

You might want to revisit that last statement. That's off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a ton more.

and don't forget Phil Plantier who, when i was about 8, was the next ted williams

Kelly Shopach, too.

On the greater issue of the value of prospects, does anybody remember when Brian Rose / Carl Pavano / Tony Armas, Jr. was our can't miss rotation of the future?

When you can trade prospects -- especially those playing in the deep minors -- for elite, cost-controlled MLB talent, my philosophy is that you should do it.  A year ago, Max Ramirez was seen as a super-stud.  Now, he's being traded for a broken down Mike Lowell.  Andy Marte was supposed to be an elite prospect, and fans were lamenting him being included in the Coco trade.  There are countless others who have flamed out.  Unless you have A-rod or Ken Griffey Jr. tearing up the minors, my thought is that MLB talent is your best bet.  Sometimes, of course, that talent becomes elite (i.e., Hanley Ramirez), but lots of other times, it turns into nothing (i.e., Craig Hansen).

[Big_Matt34]

When you can trade prospects -- especially those playing in the deep minors -- for elite, cost-controlled MLB talent, my philosophy is that you should do it.

I'm with you on that, like i said id trade Westmoreland in a package for A-Gon but it depends on what the rest of the package is. As great as A-Gon is i wouldnt give a package of something like Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish. Thats a cost controlled possible young ace who finally seems to have turned the corner in the majors, and your 3 top prospects, and thats the kind of package it seems the Padres are asking for. It will completely strip their system, probably making it one of the 5-10 worst in baseball which is just not how Theo works. He probably looks at like like he can sign Beltre/Nick Johnson and get 70% of the production without giving anybody up.

That's why it seems the talks with the Padres never get anywhere, theres no reason for the them to trade Gonzalez unless a team overpays bigtime.

[nickagneta]

When you can trade prospects -- especially those playing in the deep minors -- for elite, cost-controlled MLB talent, my philosophy is that you should do it.

I'm with you on that, like i said id trade Westmoreland in a package for A-Gon but it depends on what the rest of the package is. As great as A-Gon is i wouldnt give a package of something like Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish. Thats a cost controlled possible young ace who finally seems to have turned the corner in the majors, and your 3 top prospects, and thats the kind of package it seems the Padres are asking for. It will completely strip their system, probably making it one of the 5-10 worst in baseball which is just not how Theo works. He probably looks at like like he can sign Beltre/Nick Johnson and get 75% of the production without giving anybody up.

That's why it seems the talks with the Padres never get anywhere, theres no reason for the them to trade Gonzalez unless a team overpays bigtime.

If they get Buchholz and Westmoreland, they can only have one of Kelly or Kalish, I forget where I was listening to him but McAdams was saying in an interview that if there's one player in the minors that is untouchable it's Kelly. everyone else can be discussed. But as I said, those players change every year. Hanley Ramirez was untouchable for two years before going, though Theo wasn't the one that made the trade.

[Chris]

When you can trade prospects -- especially those playing in the deep minors -- for elite, cost-controlled MLB talent, my philosophy is that you should do it.

I'm with you on that, like i said id trade Westmoreland in a package for A-Gon but it depends on what the rest of the package is. As great as A-Gon is i wouldnt give a package of something like Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish. Thats a cost controlled possible young ace who finally seems to have turned the corner in the majors, and your 3 top prospects, and thats the kind of package it seems the Padres are asking for. It will completely strip their system, probably making it one of the 5-10 worst in baseball which is just not how Theo works. He probably looks at like like he can sign Beltre/Nick Johnson and get 70% of the production without giving anybody up.

That's why it seems the talks with the Padres never get anywhere, theres no reason for the them to trade Gonzalez unless a team overpays bigtime.

I agree with this.  I don't think any of those prospects/young players should be untouchable, but I don't think I would give up more than 2 from the group of Bucholtz/Ellsbury/Kelly/Westmoreland.  If the Padres want to pick 2 of them, and then get 1 or two lesser prospects (maybe a Bowden or Lars Anderson), then I think there might be a match.  I think there is a good chance that Kochman would be included in a deal as well.

[Big_Matt34]

I agree with this.  I don't think any of those prospects/young players should be untouchable, but I don't think I would give up more than 2 from the group of Bucholtz/Ellsbury/Kelly/Westmoreland.  If the Padres want to pick 2 of them, and then get 1 or two lesser prospects (maybe a Bowden or Lars Anderson), then I think there might be a match.  I think there is a good chance that Kochman would be included in a deal as well.

With those 4, id do a package built around either Buchholz/Westmoreland, or Ellsbury/Kelly.Don't wanna trade Clay and their best pitching prospect or Ellsbury and their best CF prospect, would really mess up the system. I think either of these 2 packages should be enough as i cant imagine the Padres getting a better offer. I like Clay more than Ellsbury but id rather do the Buchholz deal since the rotation would still be in pretty good shape, where if they trade Ellsbury they have to find another starting outfielder.

Buchholz/Westmoreland/Bowden/Redick/Kotchman if they want
Ellsbury/Kelly/Bowden/Redick/Kotchman

[Big_Matt34]

May be a negotiating ploy but Edes is saying the Sox have given up trying to sign Beltre too, which suprises me. Wonder if Nick Johnson is who they want, he gets on base a ton but is hurt so much. Heres part of Edes story

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/redsox/blog/_/post/4748702/name/edes?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

But Gonzalez is not about to be traded to Boston, and when/if he is, it will not be for a package of pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to a baseball source familiar with the plans of both the Red Sox and Padres.

The Red Sox would never package both players in the same deal, the source said, and the Padres at this stage have targeted other players in the Red Sox system, and are looking for a boatload of premium prospects

At this stage, the Red Sox are prepared to start the season with Casey Kotchman at first base, moving Kevin Youkilis to third, as they also have abandoned efforts to sign third baseman Adrian Beltre.

[Donoghus]

I have no problem with the Sox abandoning the pursuit of Beltre after reading reports of the numbers he was looking for, both in money and years.

[Redz]

I have no problem with the Sox abandoning the pursuit of Beltre after reading reports of the numbers he was looking for, both in money and years.

and the fact that he's a bum

[Big_Matt34]

I have no problem with the Sox abandoning the pursuit of Beltre after reading reports of the numbers he was looking for, both in money and years.

I'm guessing they went to Boras, he asked for too much for Beltre so the Sox FO leaked this. If Boras/Beltre want to lower their demands they can go back to the Sox but Theo isnt gonna overpay for him, especially considering there cant be much of a market for Beltre.

[Donoghus]

I have no problem with the Sox abandoning the pursuit of Beltre after reading reports of the numbers he was looking for, both in money and years.

I'm guessing they went to Boras, he asked for too much for Beltre so the Sox FO leaked this. If Boras/Beltre want to lower their demands they can go back to the Sox but Theo isnt gonna overpay for him, especially considering there cant be much of a market for Beltre.

My biggest fear since I first read about the Sox interest in Beltre was that Epstein would overpay for him.  Still a concern of mine.

[Big_Matt34]

and the fact that he's a bum

Lowell's OPS+ the last 4 years
104/124/103/106

Beltres OPS+ the last 4 years
105/112/108/82

Beltre was better two  of the four years, last year clearly seems to be the fluke year, where he was hurt most of the year. Beltre is 5 years younger than Lowell, while being MUCH, MUCH better defensively. Lowell is definately the better hitter, but you put Beltre in Fenway his numbers would look much better than they do. He isnt worth the crazy 13 million Boras is asking for, but for 8-10 a year over 3 years id think he is worth it. But a bum? Hardly

[Big_Matt34]

My biggest fear since I first read about the Sox interest in Beltre was that Epstein would overpay for him.  Still a concern of mine.

I am against overpaying for him too, but what would you think a fair deal is for Beltre? Id be ok with anything between 8-10 million a year for 3 years, 4 would be pushing it. He is still only 30, and his age is legit as there was an investigation when the Dodgers signed him when he was 15. A left side of him and Scutaro defensively would be the best there is, and i think offensively he'd hit 25-30 homers here while hitting his usual .270.