and how would it result in a 5 point swing? if you get burned once, you'll probley default to your iso set and run the clock out the second time rather than run the risk of a second turnover.
A 5 point swing happens when a team tries to run a play (which dramatically increases the chances of a turnover with every pass made), they turn the ball over, and the other team hits a 3 pointer.
If a guy can dribble down the clock and get a shot off, he either hits it, or misses it. Worst case scenario is neither team scores.
I certainly understand why some people don't agree with the strategy, I am just trying to explain the thinking. It is very similar to the strategy of running a draw with 40 seconds left and you are on your own 30. It is the coach deciding to minimize the chance of damage rather than maximizing the chance of scoring.
The whole 4-point swing and 5-point swing stuff is just horrible math. You can't assume that you would have score. I can't stand when announcers use that cliche.
That being said, there is a clear logic in running the clock down. Even if you run your offense, you might not score. There are 4 likely outcomes:
-You score, opponent misses their last shot
-You score, opponent also scores
-You don't score, neither does opponent
-You don't score, opponent hits last shot
(I am ignoring the chance of 3 pointers, etc)
You have one scenario where you end up +2, one scenario where you end up -2, and two where you end up even. Running down the clock eliminates the possibility (or at least decreases the odds greatly) of ending up -2, because it does not give the other team another possession.
It is a great strategy. The part that can be questioned is the choice of play to end the quarter.
The 2-for-1 is also a good idea if you agree with D'Antoni's idea that you usually get a good shot in the first 8 seconds. Why not take it and get a second possession before the game ends. It also doesn't let the other team run the clock down for a final shot. I consider the 2-for-1 a dangerous play if you are playing against a really good offensive rebounding lineup.