Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[Big_Matt34]

Ok, i dont think the Sox NEED to make any major moves but i think they will so heres what i could see going down.

Sign Derek Lowe if he doesnt ask for a ridiculous amount, we dont need an ace so much as we really need another dependable arm in the rotation, he will give you alot of innings and  in the AL i think his ERA will be between 3.75 and 4.25 or so.

Sign Mark Texiera, move Youk to 3rd and package Lowell and Coco (Or Ellsbury depending on what they want back) and see what you can get.

Re-sign Wakefield but if he retires id like to see them try to sign Oliver Perez who is inconsistent but he will give you innings and it doesnt hurt to have another lefty who has great stuff.

Re-sign Varitek to a 2 year 14 million dollar deal and have him split time with Dusty Brown and basically mold him.

Sign Cora and somebody like Craig Monroe or Willie Bloomquist to cheap 1 year deals.

I dont really know what to do with Lugo , NOBODY will take him and the Sox wont buy him out so i think they will keep him on as a utility man.

Try to extend Jason Bay if you can get him for a reasonable deal.

For the pen sign Juan Rincon as a righty and try to get Authur Rhodes or Al Reyes as a lefty, you can NEVER have to many quality arms in the pen.

Lineup
Ellsbury or Coco
Pedroia
Ortiz
Texiera
Youk
Bay
Drew
Lowrie
Tek/Brown

Bench:
Lugo
Monroe/Bloomquist
Argenis Diaz
Cash (If Wake is back)

Rotation
Lester
Beckett
Dice-K
Lowe
Wake/Oliver Perez with Buchholz or Bowden as insurance

Bullpen
Lopez
Juan Rincon
Denny Reyes/Authur Rhodes
Delcarmen
Okajima
Masterson
Papelbon

You have a VERY deep lineup with a good balance of Power/Average/OBP and some speed. The rotation is already fine as is IMO but adding somebody as solid as Lowe can only help, that team would win 95+ and be as dangerous as it gets in the playoffs.

[yall hate]

Ok, i dont think the Sox NEED to make any major moves but i think they will so heres what i could see going down.

Sign Derek Lowe if he doesnt ask for a ridiculous amount, we dont need an ace so much as we really need another dependable arm in the rotation, he will give you alot of innings and  in the AL i think his ERA will be between 3.75 and 4.25 or so.


Re-sign Wakefield

Sign Cora and somebody like Craig Monroe or Willie Bloomquist to cheap 1 year deals.

I dont really know what to do with Lugo , NOBODY will take him and the Sox wont buy him out so i think they will keep him on as a utility man.


For the pen sign Juan Rincon as a righty and try to get Authur Rhodes or Al Reyes as a lefty, you can NEVER have to many quality arms in the pen.

Lineup
Ellsbury or Coco
Pedroia
Ortiz
Texiera
Youk
Bay
Drew
Lowrie
Tek/Brown

Bench:
Lugo
Monroe/Bloomquist
Argenis Diaz
Cash (If Wake is back)

Rotation
Lester
Beckett
Dice-K
Lowe
Wake/Oliver Perez with Buchholz or Bowden as insurance

Bullpen
Lopez
Juan Rincon
Denny Reyes/Authur Rhodes
Delcarmen
Okajima
Masterson
Papelbon

You have a VERY deep lineup with a good balance of Power/Average/OBP and some speed. The rotation is already fine as is IMO but adding somebody as solid as Lowe can only help, that team would win 95+ and be as dangerous as it gets in the playoffs.

Couple things:

If Lowe has an ERA under 4 in the AL next year in an entire season I'll go streaking down tremont.  No chance. He has been playing in the NL where it is much easier, in a pitchers park. 

They hold a perpetual option on Wake for 4 million, so as long as both parties want he will be signed.  I dont think Wake is retiring, not yet.

I hope not Cora.  He is basically useless at this point.  no real defense because he has no range, no hitting ability, no speed.  he is replaceable.

I still think they may be able to part with Lugo if they pay a team half of his contract.  They are finally done paying renteria, so we may as well pay someone else, lol.

I dont think Rincon is that good anymore.  the lack of steroids hurt him.

I would be surprised if Brown is on the Sox to begin the year.

There is almost no chance Diaz has even one at bat for the Sox this year.  he is still a few years away and they wont rush him just to sit him on the bench.

just my comments.

[Big_Matt34]

I meant 3.75 was the best case scenerio for him and if i had to guess an ERA for him in the AL i think itd be the low to mid 4's. I dont think he is the same pitcher who had a 5 ERA with us in 2004, his pitches have more bite to them now. As for the off the field stuff, i hope he has grown up a bit and havent heard any problems about it for the last year or so.

I did not mean to put Diaz on the bench list, i was reading something about him on another window and his name stuck in my head lol, he is on the 40 man roster so i think he may get called up in Sep. but thats the extent of it. I think Cora gets re-signed because of Francona absolutely loving him even though he cant run anymore and has no range.

I dont think any team thinks Lugo can be any good so i think if a team were to take him we'd have to pay more than half his salary which i dont think theyd do.

Rincon has been much worse than i thought looking at his stats so scratch that lol, id still like to see them go after a Denny Reyes or Authur Rhodes because theres a good chance Lopez may revert to 2007 form and gets killed by lefties.

Im with you on Wakefield, i want him to come back as he is one of the best bargains in baseball but there is a chance he will retire because injuries are finally starting to slow him down. People really underappreciate him it seems, 8 of the last 9 years his ERA has been league average or better and even this year he had the 6th best WHIP in the AL.

[yall hate]

I did not mean to put Diaz on the bench list, i was reading something about him on another window and his name stuck in my head lol, he is on the 40 man roster so i think he may get called up in Sep. but thats the extent of it.

He is only on the 40 man roster to protect him from the rule 5 draft.  If they didnt put him on the 40 man, then he would be in another organization next year.

[Big_Matt34]

That may be true but if there is an injury to Lowrie or Lugo itll be easier to call him up than add another man to the 40 man.

[yall hate]

I guess it is possible, but still very unlikely.  He has only played 39 games at AA.  maybe he will make it to AAA by the end of next year, but to think he will make that huge of a leap is so unlikely.

The 40 man roster for next year will be vastly different (no Schill, timlin, van every, aardsma, casey, colon, byrd, etc...) so you will likely get other infielders.  Plus, Velasquez is on the 40 man now and while he may not be next year, he plays infield and was the call up this year.

[MBz]

Here's the thing with Lowe, the guy is an innings machine.  I think in the AL, you'll see an ERA around 4, with over 200 innings, for a team that only had one guy go over 200 innings this year, and for a team with a fairly inconsistent bullpen, this guy would be important.  Remember, it's a lot harder to get those innings pitching in the NL and he did it.  If the price is around 10 mil, I think the Sox need to try to go after Lowe.  The guy can still pitch.

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's the thing with Lowe, the guy is an innings machine.  I think in the AL, you'll see an ERA around 4, with over 200 innings, for a team that only had one guy go over 200 innings this year, and for a team with a fairly inconsistent bullpen, this guy would be important.  Remember, it's a lot harder to get those innings pitching in the NL and he did it.  If the price is around 10 mil, I think the Sox need to try to go after Lowe.  The guy can still pitch.

Lowe's last two years in the AL (for Boston, of course) he had ERAs of 4.47 and 5.42.  Should we expect him to get better?  Will he really be worth $12 million+ per season?  For comparison's sake, Tim Wakefield's ERAs the last two seasons have been 4.76 and 4.13, and the team is paying him $4 million in perpetuity.

If Lowe would agree to a very reasonable contract, I'd absolutely go after him.  However, if he's really seeking a big-money deal, I'd probably pass.

I'm okay with a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Buchholz, with money being spent to upgrade both the bullpen and the offense.  I say got after Tex, and keep Lowell.  That improves our depth, for when the team has its inevitable injuries. 

If Lowe would agree to a very reasonable contract, I'd absolutely go after him

[Tr1boy]

Lowe is a good pitcher and has at least 2 to 3 years of rotation pitching abilities left. However the issues with him are he messes around sometimes, throws bs soft pitches hoping for grounders etc. He will give you alot of innings and no doubt will win over 10 games (but at 14 and 11 for example) thats not much of a surplus imo

The best thing about this guy is that he is an amazing post season pitcher. Its like he all of a suddent cares alot, his sinkers are sinking well and he doesn't give up hits when men are on base like lester.

He really wants to come to boston imo, yet he is at a point in his career where he can't reall take a discount(or can he?)

But i feel he really loved boston and much like bronson arroyo really hated leaving. Boston will lowball him to sign for a 2 year 16 million type of deal with bonuses. Pretty sure he can get 10 + million per year with a desperate team. Its his call

If we do sign him, wake is not going to be resigned. 5th starter will be either masterson, bowden, bucholz(prob bucholz getting every opportunity, masterson relief, bowden relief, minors or trade bait).

Like someone mentioned also, we need another lefty than lopez and maybe one more righty vet(though if we keep masterson and bowden in the pen, that could be sufficient enough).

Also to add i would love texeira to come here and see if we can deal lowell but i don't see it happening. Texeira has a bitter taste with the sox org and things like that don't just go away even though this is business after all.

[Chris]

If we do sign him, wake is not going to be resigned. 5th starter will be either masterson, bowden, bucholz(prob bucholz getting every opportunity, masterson relief, bowden relief, minors or trade bait).

If Wakefield wants to come back, he is coming back.  The Sox are at least another couple of years from having to pull the plug themselves.  He is still one of the best 5th starters in the league, and having that for $4 million per year is a steal these days.  The Sox know better than anyone that you need to have at least 7 quality starters, and Wakefield will be one of them.

Like someone mentioned also, we need another lefty than lopez and maybe one more righty vet(though if we keep masterson and bowden in the pen, that could be sufficient enough).

I don't know if they need another Lefty (Lopez and Oki are a good combo), but they need another one or two top bullpen arms in general, regardless of whether they are righty's or lefty's.

Also to add i would love texeira to come here and see if we can deal lowell but i don't see it happening. Texeira has a bitter taste with the sox org and things like that don't just go away even though this is business after all.

I don't think the bitter taste matters.  He will follow the money.  But I agree that he probably will not end up here.

[JBcat]

I don't think we need to do anything desperate or drastic as we are dealing in a position of strength.   If Lowell or even Ortiz for that matter with his wrist were healthy the Sox could be in the world series right now. 

I would love Texeira and trade Lowell as option A but I don't think it's going to happen.   I think by keeping Youk and Lowell we will be fine as Lowrie can be our insurance at third if Lowell doesn't come back 100%.  Reports came out Lowrie played hurt most of the second half of this year so I expect his numbers to go up next year and he had only 1 error between 3rd and SS.  If we traded Lugo we might have to give up a good prospect and we don't know if Lugo will have a nice bounce back year like Crisp did.  He has a very good asset with his speed and I like the idea short term of splitting the playing time between Lowell, Lowrie, and Lugo between SS and 3rd and let them fight it out for playing time.  Eventually down the line I think Youk will move over to third and possibly Lars Anderson to first. 

With catching I think we can get away with Varitek taking a reduced role and even sticking with Cash with more playing time for the year or 2.   We do have Kottaras and Brown on the cusp of the major league level and we have a pretty decent prospect with Wagner in the lower levels.    Also next year we have potentially Victor Martinez and Ramon Hernandez hitting the open market.  I would be leery of trading a few prospects to get a top catching prospect which we would still be iffy on. 

I really don't like the idea of trading Bray and some other fillers in order to get Holliday.   For one as others have said Holliday's road stats away from Coors field are not that impressive and Bay has played very well during his short time here.   If we really want Holliday he is potential free agent next year and I wouldn't go overboard trying to get him now.

I know Crisp's trade value is high right now however he was very invaluable for this team especially his defense and I think over the course of 162 games with injuries and everything there is enough playing time for Bay, Ellsbury, Drew, and Crisp in the outfield.   I would only trade him if we had something we couldn't refuse.

I would like Kotsay and Casey to come back but I wouldn't be surprised if they left seeking starting starting positions elsewhere. 

As far as starting pitchers Sabathia has some injury concerns but I wouldn't be surprised if we are aggressive with others out there.   I think we will keep Wakefield but we don't really know for how much longer he will be effective.  Maybe we'll keep Byrd as well.  Starting pitchers get hurt during the year so I would like to have 7 going into the year that you think might help you at some point in the season.  The obvious first 3, Wake, maybe Byrd, and pitcher X. Bucholz and Bowden you can give them a solid year at triple A bring them up if they prove themselves but in this scenario you don't have to rush them.  All these options would give you the depth you need over the duration of the year.  For the time being until Masterson develops a solid third pitch he is more valuable to us in the bullpen and I think our bullpen overall is pretty solid now.

So in the end our team might not change much at all.  If you have a better Beckett, a healthy Lowell and Ortiz, everyone else stays about the same we could be right back in the world series.     

[Roy Hobbs]

With Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew as injury risks, why are people so opposed to having all three of Lowell, Youks, and Texeira?  The Red Sox can afford Lowell's salary, and Tito can juggle the lineup to get everybody at least 130 games played between 3B, 1B, DH, and RF (for Youks).

[Donoghus]

With Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew as injury risks, why are people so opposed to having all three of Lowell, Youks, and Texeira?  The Red Sox can afford Lowell's salary, and Tito can juggle the lineup to get everybody at least 130 games played between 3B, 1B, DH, and RF (for Youks).

Get on the horn to Theo, see if he'll buy that.

I think Teixiera would be a perfect complimentary piece to this lineup.  With injury concerns abound on the Red Sox roster, I think he'd provide some stability and create the flexibility expressed in Roy's post.

[Chris]

With Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew as injury risks, why are people so opposed to having all three of Lowell, Youks, and Texeira?  The Red Sox can afford Lowell's salary, and Tito can juggle the lineup to get everybody at least 130 games played between 3B, 1B, DH, and RF (for Youks).

I am not opposed to it, I just don't see it happening.  In addition to the amount of money you would need to invest in Tex, there also are some egos there.  I know they are all known as character guys, and I don't expect any of them to make a big problem, but a lot can be said for having consistency with where an elite player is playing.  You are just asking for trouble if you are going to mess with it like that.

The only way I could see them do something like that is if Ortiz's health is really in question (which is not that much of a stretch).  If they think they are going to need to fill many games at DH, then it would make sense.

[JBcat]

I'm not opposed to it but I don't think Tex wants to come here.  As Roy said with Youk maybe playing some RF to find playing time for everyone it might work.  Youk would have to buy into this and it would only be short term until the next year or 2 when Lowell is gone.   So yeah with Tex, Lowell, Youk, Oritz, and Drew we could find enough playing time between the 4 positions and we would be covered in case of injuries.  Still might want to keep Crisp too to give plenty of options with matchups and who is hot and so forth.

I don't think money is an issue.   We have about 40 million coming off the books this offseason and I don't think ownership will be shy opening up their wallets for the right fit.