Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[crownsy]

yea, to back up yall, you do realize bowden is one of the top 5 starting pitching prospects in minor league baseball right?

he projects to be an ace...and you want to toss him in for a guy who is a FA in a year and can't hit away from coors field?


pass.

[Chris]

Who i see the sox give up for holliday and say fuentes are bay(they could try to actually work out a long term deal or deal him also for more prospects), bucholz (even though he struggled i still think they want him), bowden(nothing to cry about losing).

Bay is not really figured to be in the redsox long term plan , not for a 1 for 1 replacement of manny. You can't go from having guys like ortiz and manny and then when manny leaves for everyone else to try to make up the slack. And with 30 million coming off the books the question will be why not try to get better at least close to the team when we did have manny

Are you kidding about the Bowden comment?  I really hope so.  He is likely to be in the Boston Bullpen by the end of next year, and in there rotation the following year.  As a 21 year old kid, he had a 2.33 era in AA.  He looked very good at AAA at the end of the year.  He would be a major prospect to lose.

I hate to say it, but Bay will probably put up better numbers in Boston then Holliday would.  His road splits are way too awful to ignore.  Not to mention that you get Bay for 7.5 million rather then 15-20.  Not to mention that you also dont give up 2 MLB quality pitching prospects, who you would have under control at reasonable costs for the foreseeable future.  Not only does it make no sense at all to make the trade you are suggesting, it flies in the face of everything this organization is doing with the Sox.  no way they do it.  no way.

Don't sleep on Bucholtz either.  I know the recent memories everyone has of him are of his terrible performances this year, but that doesn't mean much of anything.  Very rarely do prospects (especially pitchers) shine as soon as they get to the majors.  Bucholtz has some of the best stuff in any organization, and still projects as a possible Ace. 

I am not saying he is untouchable, but you better be doing something better than just using him to upgrade (and I use that lightly) from Bay to Holliday.


On another note, I am really starting to think they should be going hard after Texiera now.  Then they can see if anyone has any interest in Lowell, and if not, start shopping Youk.  As good as Youk is, Tex is just that little bit better, that can make a huge difference.  More importantly, he is more of a true 3/4 power hitter, where I think Youk is more suited to being a 5 or 6 hitter.

But the other benefit of trading Youk of course is that he has tremendous value right now.  He may be able to be the centerpiece of a trade that could bring in a top tier Catcher or Short Stop.

[Redz]

If they trade Youk they'll have to bring Lou Merloni out of retirement.  Dreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew chants just wouldn't cut it.  The ticket buying public deserves as much for their dollar.

[yall hate]

Don't sleep on Bucholtz either.  I know the recent memories everyone has of him are of his terrible performances this year, but that doesn't mean much of anything.  Very rarely do prospects (especially pitchers) shine as soon as they get to the majors.  Bucholtz has some of the best stuff in any organization, and still projects as a possible Ace. 

I am not saying he is untouchable, but you better be doing something better than just using him to upgrade (and I use that lightly) from Bay to Holliday.


On another note, I am really starting to think they should be going hard after Texiera now.  Then they can see if anyone has any interest in Lowell, and if not, start shopping Youk.  As good as Youk is, Tex is just that little bit better, that can make a huge difference.  More importantly, he is more of a true 3/4 power hitter, where I think Youk is more suited to being a 5 or 6 hitter.

But the other benefit of trading Youk of course is that he has tremendous value right now.  He may be able to be the centerpiece of a trade that could bring in a top tier Catcher or Short Stop.

Yea, Buch will be fine.  He will be in the rotation next year.  We have grown to expect players to be all stars the minute they wear the uniform.  He will be fine.  Everyone wanted to trade Lester last year.  glad we didnt do that.  you dont trade young pitchers willy nilly.  this organization realizes that which is why we will have a dominant rotation for years to come (not to mention, it allows you to overpay a bit for frontline starters, like CC (not saying we should sign him) because you have the young guns making very little cash, like Lester).

If they go after Tex, i'd rather see them get rid of Lowell and eat the cash, the youk.  Youk is the 'perfect player' in the sense that he can play multiple positions incredibly well defensively as well as hitting anyplace in the order. 

[Triboy16]

Trading youk wouldn't be good. I rather trade lowell who with a decent prospect would be welcomed by any club.

Also guy bowden is a nice looking prospect but you got to be serious if you think he will be an ace in the majors. His fastball tops at 88-90 mph with slightly above avg secondary stuff. (tampa would eat this kid for dinner).

He is at best 4th or 5th rotation type pitcher and honestly you don't lose sleep over pitchers of that calibre (because there are abudant amount of those around in the majors and in the playoffs barely get to play)

and top 5?? show me the link because thats hard to believe

[yall hate]

Also guy bowden is a nice looking prospect but you got to be serious if you think he will be an ace in the majors. His fastball tops at 88-90 mph with slightly above avg secondary stuff. (tampa would eat this kid for dinner).

He is at best 4th or 5th rotation type pitcher and honestly you don't lose sleep over pitchers of that calibre (because there are abudant amount of those around in the majors and in the playoffs barely get to play)

I am going to file this post away and come find you next year.  Bowden is our best pitching prospect (with the understanding that Buch is no longer a prospect).  He was the Red Sox minor league pitcher of the year (and dont forget he is 22).

sample scouting quotes:

Bowden is a big righty starter with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling, presently projecting as a solid  third starter at the major league level.

He has an arsenal of three pitches that could be big-league caliber: a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball that tops out around 95 mph, a very good 12-6 hard breaking curve, and an excellent circle changeup with plus potential.  His main pitch - the four-seamer - has a late, heavy sinking movement, and he generally keeps it down in the zone.  Bowden can also work in a two-seamer that is a few mph off of his four-seamer, with a bit more movement.  His deceptive changeup sits in the low 80s, about 10 mph off of his fastball, with action moving away from lefties.  His mid-70s curve is pretty sharp and he keeps hitters at bay with it.

Did I mention he is only 22?


EDIT:  Baseball America ranked Bowden's changeup as the best in the Eastern League (no link because it is subscriber only).

At the halfway point in the year, Baseball America ranked him number 17 in terms of prospects.  He got better as the year progressed.  I dont know if top 5 is accurate, but he is certainly in the top group of prosepcts.

[Chris]

Trading youk wouldn't be good. I rather trade lowell who with a decent prospect would be welcomed by any club.

Also guy bowden is a nice looking prospect but you got to be serious if you think he will be an ace in the majors. His fastball tops at 88-90 mph with slightly above avg secondary stuff. (tampa would eat this kid for dinner).

He is at best 4th or 5th rotation type pitcher and honestly you don't lose sleep over pitchers of that calibre (because there are abudant amount of those around in the majors and in the playoffs barely get to play)

and top 5?? show me the link because thats hard to believe

Do you think Masterson is a better prospect as a starter than Bowden?

If they go after Tex, i'd rather see them get rid of Lowell and eat the cash, the youk.  Youk is the 'perfect player' in the sense that he can play multiple positions incredibly well defensively as well as hitting anyplace in the order. 

I would prefer that too, but I don't know how much we could get for Lowell, and I think we could get a whole lot for Youk.  For example if we could trade Youk straight up for Russell Martin (who I read somewhere is available), would you do it?  He is a 25 year old catcher who is already one of the best in the league.

[yall hate]

I would prefer that too, but I don't know how much we could get for Lowell, and I think we could get a whole lot for Youk.  For example if we could trade Youk straight up for Russell Martin (who I read somewhere is available), would you do it?  He is a 25 year old catcher who is already one of the best in the league.

I would do that in a second.  But they wouldnt.  No chance.  I have read it is likely going to take a package similar to a Peavy type package to get him (Two top pitchers and a MLB ready position player).  So you are looking at something like Bowden, Masterson and Ellsbury for Martin.  Thats too rich for my blood.

[MBz]

Bowden doesn't need to throw 95-97 with his stuff due to his excellent control.  He's the kind of pitcher that even when his arm goes, he'll still be able to pitch due to his great control.  The guy pitched 40 innings in Pawtucket this year and only gave up 5 walks.  He pitched 104.1 innings in Portland and only gave up 24 walks.  He's not a power pitcher by any means.  You don't need to throw 98 to be a successful pitcher.  He's kind of a pitcher similar to Derek Lowe in my opinion.

[crownsy]

Bowden doesn't need to throw 95-97 with his stuff due to his excellent control.  He's the kind of pitcher that even when his arm goes, he'll still be able to pitch due to his great control.  The guy pitched 40 innings in Pawtucket this year and only gave up 5 walks.  He pitched 104.1 innings in Portland and only gave up 24 walks.  He's not a power pitcher by any means.  You don't need to throw 98 to be a successful pitcher.  He's kind of a pitcher similar to Derek Lowe in my opinion.

thats what most of the scouting reports have him as, a derek lowe type sinker pitcher with two other A++ pitches in his curve and change to keep hitters off balance, and thus, as yall qouted, he projects somewhere around ace to top of the rotation at the MLB level. not something you throw away for a guy on a one year deal who can't hit outside of Colorado.

and i didnt say top 5 prospects overall, i said pitching prospects. i believe he's like 14th or 15th out of all prospects last time i checked, there are position prospects ahead of him.

[Triboy16]

listen i saw bowden pitch against the white sox and he definitely toughen every out. Its a little worrysome that he has to work so hard to get ppl out. I know he is young but i remember his mechanics and the way he throws and its not top level material.

and yes masterson is a better prospect. The proof is simple, he was a big part of the redsox lineup and bowden was not.

Masterson can hit 93-95(usually stays around 91) and he has a nice slider/sinker. His form is also leaps better than bowden

in any case i hope some of u bowden fans prove me wrong but the redsox problem right now is their hitting more than anything. Pitching was more than solid in the regular season and playoffs(not counting becketts inefficient starts)

[crownsy]

uh... no on masterson. he's a year ahead of bowden in the program, thats why he was up, not because they like him better or anything.bowden will be up late next year to the pen, like paps, lester, masterson and buckholtz before him.


the soxs follow a strict minor league to majors progression with pitchers, and they stick to it. this was masterson's year to be elligable for the pen with the innings cap, and they took it.



they asked theo flat out on one of the drive time shows if they would bring bowden up early and theo said "no, we belive in our system over rash call ups, and we have good depth there no need to rush him"

also, fastball speed isn't everything as you seem to think it is. brandon webb is a bowden esq pitcher and he hits 94 at best, and lives in 90-92 land. but he throws a "heavy" sinking fastball like bowden. how' that working out for him?


masterson is a nice prospect, but the latest scouting reports project him to be a solid middle relief/ set up man or 4th or 5th starter, due to lack of pitches (as you said, he has two dastball and slurve. in the minors, he struggled to get through the lineup the 2nd and third time around. he has electric stuff, but not much variety.)

[yall hate]

listen i saw bowden pitch against the white sox and he definitely toughen every out. Its a little worrysome that he has to work so hard to get ppl out. I know he is young but i remember his mechanics and the way he throws and its not top level material.

and yes masterson is a better prospect. The proof is simple, he was a big part of the redsox lineup and bowden was not.

Masterson can hit 93-95(usually stays around 91) and he has a nice slider/sinker. His form is also leaps better than bowden

He had pitched like 40 innings above AA when he faced the White Sox.  No one is saying he is ready to be a regular on the Sox yet.  Give him time to mature, learn to pitch, and further develop his pitches.

Lars Anderson is the number one prospect in the system, a guy the team thinks will be a power hitting first baseman for years to come for the Sox.  But make no mistake, if they threw him in a major league game right now, he may not get so much as a hit.  That doesnt mean he doesnt have a shot.

Masterson is widely considered a lesser prospect.  Yes he has pitched at the big league level, but there are serious questions about whether he can remain a starter due to his lack of pitches as well as his propensity for giving up home runs.  As a reliever he had huge responsibilities and did amazing things this year, but in two years, Bowden will likely be making a bigger impact on this team then Masterson.

But I am not putting Masterson down at all.  The guy pitched in high leverage innings in the playoffs and generally did an excellent job. 

[nickagneta]

Speed means nothing in a pitcher.

Best example: Greg Maddox.

The reason Masterson and others are considered so highly is not the speed on the fastball but their control over it and the difference between it and their offspeed stuff and just how much all those pitches move. Also, the consistency of the release and arm speed when throwing all of one's pitches is so important.

One of the reasons Lester was considered so highly is because he has always had good, consistent arm speed with all his pitches but had a 16 MPH difference in between his fastball and his curve. Once they were able to get him over his cancer and solidify his consistency in his release point and arm slot, John's initial talents did the rest and made him an ace.

Bowden is highly thought of because of his control and the movement on that fastball, not the speed. His sinker actually works better when not thrown at top velocity. Since he can consistently spot it the combo is extremely effective, ala Derek Lowe but maybe with eventual better control.

Either way, unless he is packaged for a Pujols, Oswalt, Webb, or Howard type player, Bowden isn't going anywhere but to Pawtucket in the spring and the bullpen late next year.

[yall hate]

Yea I dont know why people are so focused on speed of pitches.  It's like 40 yard dash in football, verticle leap in basketball,etc...

If you know how to use those skills then obviously the better the number, but if you cant use it, you will get hit.  just having a 100 mph fastball doesnt mean you will be successful.  just because you have a huge vertical (gerald Green) clearly shows you may not be a successful basketball.  And Bethel Johnson shows us being fast doesnt equal being a good wr in football.