Time To Panic? I Think So

[Goldstar88]

What's with Grant Williams? Is he sitting because of his elbow issue, or something else? He was a key part of the rotation since last year. His versatility as a big man defender is a major plus, and his 3 point shooting and improved ability to put the ball on the floor were huge for us. Lately he looks like the rookie year Grant Williams. If it's his elbow, then why not just sit him for a week or two or whatever is needed to heal?

He really hasn’t been very good all year. Defense is worse and effort is spotty at times. I’m surprised considering it’s a contract year for him.

[celticsclay]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

That was funny

Why is that funny?  He is an all league defender, all star, better shooter, better passer, takes better care of the ball, more win shares, better BPM, better VORP, etc.  Basically every advanced metric says Holiday is better than Brown.  Brown rebounds better and takes more shots thereby scoring more points.

Some of your reasoning is, ironically, painfully devoid of reason. Shoots more = scores more? Are you serious? You realise that assuming continued efficiency on an increase in shot attempts makes no sense, right?

Brown is a massively better overall scorer. This is undeniable. He is a much more efficient scorer inside the arc, and draws more than 2x as many shooting fouls.

Brown is also the better playoff performer. Jrue's efficiency, which you laud, is Marcus Smart-level woeful in the playoffs. Why don't you mention that?

their TS% this year are 58.4 and 58.  I mean that 0.4% does favor Brown, but it is negligible.  Brown is a better 2 point shooter, but Holiday is better from the line and 3.

Playoff advanced metrics are similar.  WS/48, .11 vs..107, vorp 2.5 vs. 3.2, bpm 1.8 vs. 3.1.  Ast to tov ratio heavily favors Holiday in both regular season and post season.  +- and on/off differential both heavily favor Holiday in both the regular season and post season. Holiday has definitely had some poor shooting post seasons and yet his teams are always better with him on the floor, which isn't the case with Brown. In fact every post season Brown has played as a starter, Boston is better with him on the bench. 

Holiday and Brown are absolutely similar players. Nothing funny about that at all.  The only funny thing is someone thinking they aren't similar players.  Brown is obviously a lot younger so has more value, but that isn't the same thing.

Ringer nba rankings recently updated have brown 21 holiday 32. I think that’s where most people are, both great players but brown a tier above.

[Who]

I was surprised by the Jrue to Jaylen value comparison. I always used Middleton as the comp. Middleton similar position and in past seasons has had similar value to Jaylen.

That said, while it surprised me to see Jrue put up next to Jaylen, I did end up agreeing with Moranis after thinking about it for a little while. I take Jaylen ahead of Jrue but they are on a similar level.

Jaylen is the superior scorer but Jrue is a much better passer and defender. Jaylen has him as a rebounder. I say this about Jaylen a fair bit, he is more of an individualist player. He is not good at making players around him better. Jrue is not as good in terms of individualism but his collective play (defense, passing, ball-handling) are superior to Jaylen. Jrue is a better team player.

Overall value, yeah not far off.

In the past, I have always viewed Jrue as a borderline All-Star so someone in the 25-30 range but he has been really solid this season and last season. He is more in the 20-25 range I reckon by now. And I have Jaylen in the late teens. Not much seperation.

[jpotter33]

I was surprised by the Jrue to Jaylen value comparison. I always used Middleton as the comp. Middleton similar position and in past seasons has had similar value to Jaylen.

That said, while it surprised me to see Jrue put up next to Jaylen, I did end up agreeing with Moranis after thinking about it for a little while. I take Jaylen ahead of Jrue but they are on a similar level.

Jaylen is the superior scorer but Jrue is a much better passer and defender. Jaylen has him as a rebounder. I say this about Jaylen a fair bit, he is more of an individualist player. He is not good at making players around him better. Jrue is not as good in terms of individualism but his collective play (defense, passing, ball-handling) are superior to Jaylen. Jrue is a better team player.

Overall value, yeah not far off.

In the past, I have always viewed Jrue as a borderline All-Star so someone in the 25-30 range but he has been really solid this season and last season. He is more in the 20-25 range I reckon by now. And I have Jaylen in the late teens. Not much seperation.

Pretty much all of this. TP.

Completely agree that they're on a similar level, with Jaylen slightly ahead overall given especially given age. But as much as Brown has grown this year, I think Jrue has similarly improved and is a legitimate 2 for a championship level team now.

[celticinorlando]

I am afraid we are going to look back in May and say what an absolute waste of talent and a season by the Celtics. I hope I am wrong but they show no heart, little effort and just don't look interested. Not sure they can just turn it on for the playoffs.

[Roy H.]

I am afraid we are going to look back in May and say what an absolute waste of talent and a season by the Celtics. I hope I am wrong but they show no heart, little effort and just don't look interested. Not sure they can just turn it on for the playoffs.

I think some things will change in the playoffs.  The effort will be there.  Hopefully the defense will be shored up.

But, other things are likely to remain broken.  We have no consistent rotation.  More importantly, our team doesn't consistently show the ability to attack the other team.  If three pointers aren't falling at excellent levels, we're a very mediocre team.

I just looked up the stat yesterday, and in our losses, Tatum is shooting under 30% from 3PT.  I'm not sure that that will change just because we're in the playoffs.  If Tatum isn't hot from outside, our team seems to stand little chance of winning.

[Moranis]

I was surprised by the Jrue to Jaylen value comparison. I always used Middleton as the comp. Middleton similar position and in past seasons has had similar value to Jaylen.

That said, while it surprised me to see Jrue put up next to Jaylen, I did end up agreeing with Moranis after thinking about it for a little while. I take Jaylen ahead of Jrue but they are on a similar level.

Jaylen is the superior scorer but Jrue is a much better passer and defender. Jaylen has him as a rebounder. I say this about Jaylen a fair bit, he is more of an individualist player. He is not good at making players around him better. Jrue is not as good in terms of individualism but his collective play (defense, passing, ball-handling) are superior to Jaylen. Jrue is a better team player.

Overall value, yeah not far off.

In the past, I have always viewed Jrue as a borderline All-Star so someone in the 25-30 range but he has been really solid this season and last season. He is more in the 20-25 range I reckon by now. And I have Jaylen in the late teens. Not much seperation.

During the their title season, Middleton was absolutely their 2nd best player, but Holiday has always been their 2nd most important player.  Holiday is the glue of that team and they do not win that title without making that trade.  Holiday's advanced metrics compare favorably to Giannis.  He is the main reason why Milwaukee has continued to play well even in games Giannis has missed and that is with Middleton looking nothing like he did before the injury last year. 

I do think many have the perception of Holiday as a 3rd wheel though so it isn't surprising that so many don't have him in the same general range as Brown.  Holiday very well may be the most underrated player in the league today.  He is an absolutely fantastic player who impacts winning in a tremendously positive manner because he does all of the little things you need a team.  Holiday is what we all hoped Smart would end up like i.e. a fairly efficient scorer and good shooter, excellent passer and rebounder (for position), and an elite perimeter defender.  At times, Smart has managed some of those things, but Smart never developed into the shooter and could never put it all together like Holiday did.

[Phantom255x]

Have people watched Holiday this season? He's been huge for them in the games Giannis is out, and he seems to have improved on defense, which is saying something because he was always a very solid defender. There was also a stretch during this season where it seemed he was hitting every clutch bucket lol.

Even though I still think Jaylen is marginally better, it's not a big margin. I do think 2023 Jaylen though is way better than Middleton, but that's also because Middleton still seems to be ramping up and might just be a bit hampered with all his knee issues/injuries.

I think when comparing the Bucks and Celtics, Moranis has it mostly right. A lot though does depend on health too. Is Middleton 100%? Is Timelord healthy? In theory our bench should be better than theirs BUT they haven't looked like it, and it also seems like Mazzulla is hurting them by not defining their roles and playing them randomly each game.

If I had to rank the Top-6 between both teams, I'd go Giannis, Tatum, Jaylen, Holiday, Timelord (if healthy), Lopez. Then I'd say the next 2 guys, or 3 of the next 4 are Celtics with White, Brogdon in that mix. I don't really think the Bucks have a Brogdon/White in their bench which is our sneaky weapon.

[celticinorlando]

Holiday was the guy I wanted Boston to get when Danny tried before he went to the Bucks. Would have been an ideal fit here.

[Moranis]

Have people watched Holiday this season? He's been huge for them in the games Giannis is out, and he seems to have improved on defense, which is saying something because he was always a very solid defender. There was also a stretch during this season where it seemed he was hitting every clutch bucket lol.

Even though I still think Jaylen is marginally better, it's not a big margin. I do think 2023 Jaylen though is way better than Middleton, but that's also because Middleton still seems to be ramping up and might just be a bit hampered with all his knee issues/injuries.

I think when comparing the Bucks and Celtics, Moranis has it mostly right. A lot though does depend on health too. Is Middleton 100%? Is Timelord healthy? In theory our bench should be better than theirs BUT they haven't looked like it, and it also seems like Mazzulla is hurting them by not defining their roles and playing them randomly each game.

If I had to rank the Top-6 between both teams, I'd go Giannis, Tatum, Jaylen, Holiday, Timelord (if healthy), Lopez. Then I'd say the next 2 guys, or 3 of the next 4 are Celtics with White, Brogdon in that mix. I don't really think the Bucks have a Brogdon/White in their bench which is our sneaky weapon.

Assuming the Bucks starting 5 is Holiday, Allen, Middleton, Giannis, Lopez that means they have both Crowder and Portis on the bench.  Different positions than Brogdon/White, but certainly aren't that far off from a value standpoint. 

[Who]

The addition of Crowder did a lot to reinforce that Bucks bench. Reduced the gap BOS had over them.

Big 3

Giannis, Middleton, Jrue vs Tatum, Jaylen, Brogdon

Guards

G Allen, J Carter, P Connaughton vs Smart, D White

Forwards & Bigs

B Lopez, Crowder, Portis vs Horford, Rob Williams, G Williams



Big advantage for BOS with the guards. They have another advantage in the frontcourt with Horford and Rob Williams but Crowder has helped lessen the gap that G Williams offered.


Deep Bench

Ingles, W Matthews, M Leonard, G Dragic vs Hauser, Muscala, Pritchard, B Griffin

[celticsclay]

Have people watched Holiday this season? He's been huge for them in the games Giannis is out, and he seems to have improved on defense, which is saying something because he was always a very solid defender. There was also a stretch during this season where it seemed he was hitting every clutch bucket lol.

Even though I still think Jaylen is marginally better, it's not a big margin. I do think 2023 Jaylen though is way better than Middleton, but that's also because Middleton still seems to be ramping up and might just be a bit hampered with all his knee issues/injuries.

I think when comparing the Bucks and Celtics, Moranis has it mostly right. A lot though does depend on health too. Is Middleton 100%? Is Timelord healthy? In theory our bench should be better than theirs BUT they haven't looked like it, and it also seems like Mazzulla is hurting them by not defining their roles and playing them randomly each game.

If I had to rank the Top-6 between both teams, I'd go Giannis, Tatum, Jaylen, Holiday, Timelord (if healthy), Lopez. Then I'd say the next 2 guys, or 3 of the next 4 are Celtics with White, Brogdon in that mix. I don't really think the Bucks have a Brogdon/White in their bench which is our sneaky weapon.

Assuming the Bucks starting 5 is Holiday, Allen, Middleton, Giannis, Lopez that means they have both Crowder and Portis on the bench.  Different positions than Brogdon/White, but certainly aren't that far off from a value standpoint.

How are they similar in a value standpoint? Jay crowder is about to be 33 and a contending team just willingly sat him him out for half the season and had a hard time moving him. Brodgon is the leading candidate for 6th man of the year and should probably start. Brodgon shoots 46% from three. Crowder is about 36% the last 3 seasons. 35% for career. They are not even in same Ballpark. Even if you look at what they are traded for it was a first round pick, a prospect with some value and backup center. Crowder was 5 second round picks. 

[Phantom255x]

Have people watched Holiday this season? He's been huge for them in the games Giannis is out, and he seems to have improved on defense, which is saying something because he was always a very solid defender. There was also a stretch during this season where it seemed he was hitting every clutch bucket lol.

Even though I still think Jaylen is marginally better, it's not a big margin. I do think 2023 Jaylen though is way better than Middleton, but that's also because Middleton still seems to be ramping up and might just be a bit hampered with all his knee issues/injuries.

I think when comparing the Bucks and Celtics, Moranis has it mostly right. A lot though does depend on health too. Is Middleton 100%? Is Timelord healthy? In theory our bench should be better than theirs BUT they haven't looked like it, and it also seems like Mazzulla is hurting them by not defining their roles and playing them randomly each game.

If I had to rank the Top-6 between both teams, I'd go Giannis, Tatum, Jaylen, Holiday, Timelord (if healthy), Lopez. Then I'd say the next 2 guys, or 3 of the next 4 are Celtics with White, Brogdon in that mix. I don't really think the Bucks have a Brogdon/White in their bench which is our sneaky weapon.

Assuming the Bucks starting 5 is Holiday, Allen, Middleton, Giannis, Lopez that means they have both Crowder and Portis on the bench.  Different positions than Brogdon/White, but certainly aren't that far off from a value standpoint.

How are they similar in a value standpoint? Jay crowder is about to be 33 and a contending team just willingly sat him him out for half the season and had a hard time moving him. Brodgon is the leading candidate for 6th man of the year and should probably start. Brodgon shoots 46% from three. Crowder is about 36% the last 3 seasons. 35% for career. They are not even in same Ballpark. Even if you look at what they are traded for it was a first round pick, a prospect with some value and backup center. Crowder was 5 second round picks.

Yeah Crowder and Portis are very solid. White and Brogdon are simply better.

[Moranis]

Have people watched Holiday this season? He's been huge for them in the games Giannis is out, and he seems to have improved on defense, which is saying something because he was always a very solid defender. There was also a stretch during this season where it seemed he was hitting every clutch bucket lol.

Even though I still think Jaylen is marginally better, it's not a big margin. I do think 2023 Jaylen though is way better than Middleton, but that's also because Middleton still seems to be ramping up and might just be a bit hampered with all his knee issues/injuries.

I think when comparing the Bucks and Celtics, Moranis has it mostly right. A lot though does depend on health too. Is Middleton 100%? Is Timelord healthy? In theory our bench should be better than theirs BUT they haven't looked like it, and it also seems like Mazzulla is hurting them by not defining their roles and playing them randomly each game.

If I had to rank the Top-6 between both teams, I'd go Giannis, Tatum, Jaylen, Holiday, Timelord (if healthy), Lopez. Then I'd say the next 2 guys, or 3 of the next 4 are Celtics with White, Brogdon in that mix. I don't really think the Bucks have a Brogdon/White in their bench which is our sneaky weapon.

Assuming the Bucks starting 5 is Holiday, Allen, Middleton, Giannis, Lopez that means they have both Crowder and Portis on the bench.  Different positions than Brogdon/White, but certainly aren't that far off from a value standpoint.

How are they similar in a value standpoint? Jay crowder is about to be 33 and a contending team just willingly sat him him out for half the season and had a hard time moving him. Brodgon is the leading candidate for 6th man of the year and should probably start. Brodgon shoots 46% from three. Crowder is about 36% the last 3 seasons. 35% for career. They are not even in same Ballpark. Even if you look at what they are traded for it was a first round pick, a prospect with some value and backup center. Crowder was 5 second round picks.

Yeah Crowder and Portis are very solid. White and Brogdon are simply better.

Crowder is definitely the worst of the 4 and Brogdon is the best, but I think Portis is better than White.  Hard to compare since they play different positions.  In his starts this year, Portis is averaging something like a 18/12 (I just did an eyeball, didn't calculate).  He stretches the floor and hits his foul shots, doesn't really turn it over.  A nice solid all around player, that provides a nice toughness to the Bucks bench and is more than capable of filling in for Giannis in the starting lineup. 

[angryguy77]

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