Time To Panic? I Think So

[angryguy77]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

   I’m confused as to who with the Celtics didn’t think it was worth overpaying a bit for help at the deadline. Shocked this time. But most fans agreed and thought it was ok so I’m in the minority. I’m also usually wrong so maybe Celts win it all!

Another player wouldn't fix the bad coaching philosophy. Pertl wouldn't cause more 3's to be made.

[celticsclay]

As I've said for years, you generally need a top 5 player to win championships, but even deep playoff runs almost always require at least a top 10 player. 

There are only 4 teams in the East that arguably have a top 10 player: Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia, and Miami.  To be clear, I do not think Butler is a top 10 player, but he is at least arguably one so I've included the Heat.  The Sixers have a clear top 10 player and arguably another.  Milwaukee and Boston both have clear top 10 players, though Milwaukee is the only team in the East with a without question top 3 player in the world.   That is why I favor Milwaukee to come out of the East and also why no other team (except for Philly) even scares me a little bit.  Boston can ride the Tatum train because the East just doesn't have many players like Tatum in the conference (why I was really happy to see Durant and Irving go West). 

That is also why I think the West is far more up in the air as there are 9 teams that at least arguably have a top 10 player (Den, Mem, Pho, GS, LAC, Dal, LAL, NOP, POR).  Now obviously not all those teams have top 10 players because at best only 7 do (since there are at least 3 in the east), but there is a lot more top end talent in the West.  That stuff matters a lot when trying to figure out who can make a run to the championship or even just make the conference finals.

I’m confused who the top ten player would be for pelicans? Is the top ten player for memphis in rehab in Florida? As jumbled as the west is I am curious what teams people think could actually win the west. It’s pretty hard for me to see a team besides denver, Phoenix or perhaps golden state if wiggins returns and anyone else stays healthy. A team like the blazers is not worth mentioning in any context here as they probably don’t even make the playin.

[Phantom255x]

I think today was the first time this season where I woke up feeling depressed about the C's and their chances this year.

Even with some of their other losses this season and that rough 1-4 stretch they had right after the Break, I usually chalked it up to some adversity which every team experiences in a long season, and some of it also to injuries during the periods of time where we missed a handful of players.

But last night? Losing to that team this late in the season? YIKES.

This team plays and acts like they've won something before when they haven't. They looked like they walked into the Toyota Center yesterday already thinking they'd won and that they could just sleepwalk the whole night. Wrong! And they seem to think they can just flip a switch whenever but that isn't always going to work against better, more active/engaged teams.

This attitude they have I fear is what'll cost them this year. Smart EPITOMIZES this IMO. He's a passionate player but also has an ego, and I think that ego has become worse since he returned from injury. Playing poorly, losing his mind, and for some reason it's like the C's have to give Smart all these minutes because he "deserves it"? Ugh.

As everyone else has said, this team has more than enough talent, and has more talent than even last year's team that made the Finals. But instead of seeking revenge and having this "we're going to win it this year" mentality for a full season, they act like they already won Banner 18 last season and know what it takes and can coast this late into the season. That'll doom us. 

[gouki88]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

That was funny

[Moranis]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

That was funny

Why is that funny?  He is an all league defender, all star, better shooter, better passer, takes better care of the ball, more win shares, better BPM, better VORP, etc.  Basically every advanced metric says Holiday is better than Brown.  Brown rebounds better and takes more shots thereby scoring more points.

[gouki88]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

That was funny

Why is that funny?  He is an all league defender, all star, better shooter, better passer, takes better care of the ball, more win shares, better BPM, better VORP, etc.  Basically every advanced metric says Holiday is better than Brown.  Brown rebounds better and takes more shots thereby scoring more points.

Some of your reasoning is, ironically, painfully devoid of reason. Shoots more = scores more? Are you serious? You realise that assuming continued efficiency on an increase in shot attempts makes no sense, right?

Brown is a massively better overall scorer. This is undeniable. He is a much more efficient scorer inside the arc, and draws more than 2x as many shooting fouls.

Brown is also the better playoff performer. Jrue's efficiency, which you laud, is Marcus Smart-level woeful in the playoffs. Why don't you mention that?

[celticsclay]

I think it is worth pointing out that brown has already made as many all star games as holiday. Holiday I also don’t think has ever made an all nba team which brown certainly has a shot at this year. I like holiday but brown is a superior player.

[Phantom255x]

As I've said for years, you generally need a top 5 player to win championships, but even deep playoff runs almost always require at least a top 10 player. 

There are only 4 teams in the East that arguably have a top 10 player: Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia, and Miami.  To be clear, I do not think Butler is a top 10 player, but he is at least arguably one so I've included the Heat.  The Sixers have a clear top 10 player and arguably another.  Milwaukee and Boston both have clear top 10 players, though Milwaukee is the only team in the East with a without question top 3 player in the world.   That is why I favor Milwaukee to come out of the East and also why no other team (except for Philly) even scares me a little bit.  Boston can ride the Tatum train because the East just doesn't have many players like Tatum in the conference (why I was really happy to see Durant and Irving go West). 

That is also why I think the West is far more up in the air as there are 9 teams that at least arguably have a top 10 player (Den, Mem, Pho, GS, LAC, Dal, LAL, NOP, POR).  Now obviously not all those teams have top 10 players because at best only 7 do (since there are at least 3 in the east), but there is a lot more top end talent in the West.  That stuff matters a lot when trying to figure out who can make a run to the championship or even just make the conference finals.

You say you need a Top-10 player to go on a deep run, then listed 13 teams that have that. Math checks out

(In all seriousness, I mostly agree and know what you mean though)

[celticsclay]

I feel like we are getting to the point in this thread of calling 25 guys too 25 guys. Here are my top ten. Think it would be hard to take anyone off top here

Giannis
Jokic
Embid
Tatum
Durant
Curry
SGA
Doncic

In conversation
Mitchell
Booker
Morant (if not out for season)
Brown?

[Phantom255x]

I feel like we are getting to the point in this thread of calling 25 guys too 25 guys. Here are my top ten. Think it would be hard to take anyone off top here

Giannis
Jokic
Embid
Tatum
Durant
Curry
SGA
Doncic

In conversation
Mitchell
Booker
Morant (if not out for season)
Brown?

You listed 8 names, but I think you can add Lillard and a healthy Lebron to that to round it out.

[celticsclay]

I feel like we are getting to the point in this thread of calling 25 guys too 25 guys. Here are my top ten. Think it would be hard to take anyone off top here

Giannis
Jokic
Embid
Tatum
Durant
Curry
SGA
Doncic

In conversation
Mitchell
Booker
Morant (if not out for season)
Brown?

You listed 8 names, but I think you can add Lillard and a healthy Lebron to that to round it out.

I actually listed 12 but only think the top 8 are clear. I would also add Leonard before Lebron or lillard. I think lillard is too bad on defense to be top 10 right now. Lebron is both injured and has become a joke on defense.

[Phantom255x]

I feel like we are getting to the point in this thread of calling 25 guys too 25 guys. Here are my top ten. Think it would be hard to take anyone off top here

Giannis
Jokic
Embid
Tatum
Durant
Curry
SGA
Doncic

In conversation
Mitchell
Booker
Morant (if not out for season)
Brown?

You listed 8 names, but I think you can add Lillard and a healthy Lebron to that to round it out.

I actually listed 12 but only think the top 8 are clear. I would also add Leonard before Lebron or lillard. I think lillard is too bad on defense to be top 10 right now. Lebron is both injured and has become a joke on defense.

Oh my bad I thought the "in conversation" was a separate category lol

I would have put Kawhi but I'll be honest, it's hard for me to do so given his durability issues. Even this season, he's on pace to play just 48-50 games, and I also factor in the lack of games in previous recent seasons too. But yeah, I guess if healthy he can be in the Top-10

[Moranis]

As I've said for years, you generally need a top 5 player to win championships, but even deep playoff runs almost always require at least a top 10 player. 

There are only 4 teams in the East that arguably have a top 10 player: Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia, and Miami.  To be clear, I do not think Butler is a top 10 player, but he is at least arguably one so I've included the Heat.  The Sixers have a clear top 10 player and arguably another.  Milwaukee and Boston both have clear top 10 players, though Milwaukee is the only team in the East with a without question top 3 player in the world.   That is why I favor Milwaukee to come out of the East and also why no other team (except for Philly) even scares me a little bit.  Boston can ride the Tatum train because the East just doesn't have many players like Tatum in the conference (why I was really happy to see Durant and Irving go West). 

That is also why I think the West is far more up in the air as there are 9 teams that at least arguably have a top 10 player (Den, Mem, Pho, GS, LAC, Dal, LAL, NOP, POR).  Now obviously not all those teams have top 10 players because at best only 7 do (since there are at least 3 in the east), but there is a lot more top end talent in the West.  That stuff matters a lot when trying to figure out who can make a run to the championship or even just make the conference finals.

You say you need a Top-10 player to go on a deep run, then listed 13 teams that have that. Math checks out

(In all seriousness, I mostly agree and know what you mean though)

there are guys that are close together or arguable. There are obviously only 10, but I suspect if you asked a bunch of different people you'd get 15 to 20 names among the various lists (obviously almost everyone would have 6 or 7 guys the same, it is the last few that are preference).  Also because of that, a solid post season run could elevate someone.  Injuries are also obviously a factor.  I mean Lebron was a top 10 player for lost people, but hasn't played in weeks.  How do you rate him, or Durant, or anyone else that is injured?

The underlying point is though that the West has way more of the better players in the sport. 

[Moranis]

I still think the only team that can beat Boston in the East is Milwaukee.  Slightly worried about Philly, but not anyone else.

actually, I think the only team that can beat Boston is Boston.  if we're healthy and focussed, we can beat anyone.  thing is, health and focus/effort are serious concerns with this team.

Agreed. This is the most talented team in the league. If they play well, nobody can beat them.

I'm confused as to why people think this team has more talent than Milwaukee at least as well as a few other teams.  Milwaukee has BY FAR the best player in the series, Holiday is right there with Brown, they have solid depth through 12 deep (Middleton, Lopez, Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Ingles, Carter, Leonard, Matthews, Beauchamp).  The Bucks are more talented than Boston.  Doesn't mean Boston can't win the series, but Milwaukee should be favored if both teams are relatively healthy.

That was funny

Why is that funny?  He is an all league defender, all star, better shooter, better passer, takes better care of the ball, more win shares, better BPM, better VORP, etc.  Basically every advanced metric says Holiday is better than Brown.  Brown rebounds better and takes more shots thereby scoring more points.

Some of your reasoning is, ironically, painfully devoid of reason. Shoots more = scores more? Are you serious? You realise that assuming continued efficiency on an increase in shot attempts makes no sense, right?

Brown is a massively better overall scorer. This is undeniable. He is a much more efficient scorer inside the arc, and draws more than 2x as many shooting fouls.

Brown is also the better playoff performer. Jrue's efficiency, which you laud, is Marcus Smart-level woeful in the playoffs. Why don't you mention that?

their TS% this year are 58.4 and 58.  I mean that 0.4% does favor Brown, but it is negligible.  Brown is a better 2 point shooter, but Holiday is better from the line and 3.

Playoff advanced metrics are similar.  WS/48, .11 vs..107, vorp 2.5 vs. 3.2, bpm 1.8 vs. 3.1.  Ast to tov ratio heavily favors Holiday in both regular season and post season.  +- and on/off differential both heavily favor Holiday in both the regular season and post season. Holiday has definitely had some poor shooting post seasons and yet his teams are always better with him on the floor, which isn't the case with Brown. In fact every post season Brown has played as a starter, Boston is better with him on the bench. 

Holiday and Brown are absolutely similar players. Nothing funny about that at all.  The only funny thing is someone thinking they aren't similar players.  Brown is obviously a lot younger so has more value, but that isn't the same thing.

[hpantazo]

What's with Grant Williams? Is he sitting because of his elbow issue, or something else? He was a key part of the rotation since last year. His versatility as a big man defender is a major plus, and his 3 point shooting and improved ability to put the ball on the floor were huge for us. Lately he looks like the rookie year Grant Williams. If it's his elbow, then why not just sit him for a week or two or whatever is needed to heal?