MVP Race

[celticsclay]

I think it will be awesome when Jokic wins his third straight MVP and then the Nuggets fail to reach the NBA Finals yet again.

Without Jokic the Nuggets would never have even made the playoffs. I find this silly remarks.

Is Lillard a garbage player because in his whole career he only won four playoff series?

I never said that Jokic (or Lillard, or anyone else) is a garbage player. It just amuses me that there's so much praise for Jokic during the regular season, and he's on the verge of becoming only the fourth player ever to win three straight MVPs, but he doesn't have the postseason success to match. Perhaps my cynicism in this is the product of living in an age of media saturation in which I hear over and over and over about how great certain players are, and when those players don't win The Big One, my natural reaction is, "Well, I guess they aren't that great, are they?"

Then again, I'm not a big fan of MVP discussions in general. The MVP award is sort of a glorified popularity contest, which doesn't appeal to me, and it doesn't have any real rules or even guidelines, so we can't even have everyone approach the discussion in the same way. Similar to the conversation around the various Halls of Fame.

On top of that, for as good as his on/off differential has been in the regular season, it has been NEGATIVE in the playoffs the last 3 years.  Denver has actually better when he is on the bench in the playoffs.  Even during the WCF run in 2020, Jokic's on/off differential was -3.0 in the playoffs.  Murray was +10.2 and Porter was +14.6 during that run.  In 21, when they went to WCS without Murray, Jokic's differential in the playoffs was -8.2, only Austin Rivers was worse on the team.  Last year in the first round loss in 5, Jokic -12.4, but Gordon was +4.6.  Jokic has been truly amazing in the regular season, but has come up very small in the playoffs.  That is why I wouldn't give him the award when there are other deserving candidates.  He absolutely needs to prove it in the playoffs.  Just as Giannis did.  I mean Jordan and Lebron didn't even win 3 in a row and they were considered the best player in the sport for like a decade and found far greater regular season and post season success than Jokic. 

Right now, I think he is clearly behind Giannis and Tatum.  I'd probably have Jokic 3rd, but I'd also consider Embiid in that spot.  I think those 4 are pretty firmly ahead of Doncic, Morant, Mitchell, and everyone else.

This post season stats matter from previous years for this years regular seasons award is one of your stranger ones. I don’t think I have ever heard that before in any sport from anyone. Like should Aaron judge not have won mvp this year cause he has stunk in the playoffs. Taking that further how in the world has trout won mvps.

[Phantom255x]

What I don't understand with the Middleton talk is that, is Jrue Holiday a scrub? He exists and is a very good player. He's been playing regularly, including in games Giannis is out (where they are 6-5 WITHOUT Giannis, btw). In fact he's probably a nice #2 on a lot of teams.

And if we want to talk playoffs, in 2021 Giannis missed the last few games of the ECF, and guess what, MIL still went on to win the next two games and that series to reach the Finals.

Giannis probably is the real MVP, but it's also odd seeing all these posts acting like the whole team around him is garbage. Brook Lopez literally put up 33 last night in a game Giannis only played like 9 minutes before getting hurt and they won rather easily.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets and C's are both below .500 with Jokic and Tatum don't play.

[celticsclay]

I think it will be awesome when Jokic wins his third straight MVP and then the Nuggets fail to reach the NBA Finals yet again.

Without Jokic the Nuggets would never have even made the playoffs. I find this silly remarks.

Is Lillard a garbage player because in his whole career he only won four playoff series?

I never said that Jokic (or Lillard, or anyone else) is a garbage player. It just amuses me that there's so much praise for Jokic during the regular season, and he's on the verge of becoming only the fourth player ever to win three straight MVPs, but he doesn't have the postseason success to match. Perhaps my cynicism in this is the product of living in an age of media saturation in which I hear over and over and over about how great certain players are, and when those players don't win The Big One, my natural reaction is, "Well, I guess they aren't that great, are they?"

Then again, I'm not a big fan of MVP discussions in general. The MVP award is sort of a glorified popularity contest, which doesn't appeal to me, and it doesn't have any real rules or even guidelines, so we can't even have everyone approach the discussion in the same way. Similar to the conversation around the various Halls of Fame.

On top of that, for as good as his on/off differential has been in the regular season, it has been NEGATIVE in the playoffs the last 3 years.  Denver has actually better when he is on the bench in the playoffs.  Even during the WCF run in 2020, Jokic's on/off differential was -3.0 in the playoffs.  Murray was +10.2 and Porter was +14.6 during that run.  In 21, when they went to WCS without Murray, Jokic's differential in the playoffs was -8.2, only Austin Rivers was worse on the team.  Last year in the first round loss in 5, Jokic -12.4, but Gordon was +4.6.  Jokic has been truly amazing in the regular season, but has come up very small in the playoffs.  That is why I wouldn't give him the award when there are other deserving candidates.  He absolutely needs to prove it in the playoffs.  Just as Giannis did.  I mean Jordan and Lebron didn't even win 3 in a row and they were considered the best player in the sport for like a decade and found far greater regular season and post season success than Jokic. 

Right now, I think he is clearly behind Giannis and Tatum.  I'd probably have Jokic 3rd, but I'd also consider Embiid in that spot.  I think those 4 are pretty firmly ahead of Doncic, Morant, Mitchell, and everyone else.

MVP is a regular-season award, so I think it should be treated as such, but the lack of playoff performance you point out is part of the reason I sort of get a chuckle out of the Jokic MVP talk, because I'm confident the Nuggets will once again fail to even reach the NBA Finals.

You really would fault jokic for losing to durant and Booker? Or Leonard and George (if they are actually healthy). If he lost to like the blazers or kings who have either one superstar of zero, sure. If he loses to the grizzlies, which is possible, that would be an indictment of his value compared to Morant. But the rest of it I don’t see how it impacts his value as a player. I don’t think Giannis is worse if the bucks lose to the Celtics. I don’t think Embid is worse if the Celtics or bucks beat them. Also at least jokic has made the WCF. A player like Embid has never even been past the second round despite multiple all star teammates in butler, simmons and harden.

[celticsclay]

What I don't understand with the Middleton talk is that, is Jrue Holiday a scrub? He exists and is a very good player. He's been playing regularly, including in games Giannis is out (where they are 6-5 WITHOUT Giannis, btw). In fact he's probably a nice #2 on a lot of teams.

And if we want to talk playoffs, in 2021 Giannis missed the last few games of the ECF, and guess what, MIL still went on to win the next two games and that series to reach the Finals.

Giannis probably is the real MVP, but it's also odd seeing all these posts acting like the whole team around him is garbage. Brook Lopez literally put up 33 last night in a game Giannis only played like 9 minutes before getting hurt and they won rather easily.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets and C's are both below .500 with Jokic and Tatum don't play.

I would agree holiday is better than Middleton now and probably moving forward. I think at least one poster here hypes Middleton as a way to denigrate the Celtics finals run as they have posted about how the Celtics only beat them because they missed Middleton about 40 times.

[Who]

Moranis is right about lack of postseason success being used against candidates for MVP awards. It is a big reason why Harden won only 1 MVP despite fantastic individual & team success in the regular season. His failures in the playoffs were held against him.

As they were with Giannis as pointed out by Moranis.

Edit: this seems to happen to repeat MVPs rather than first time MVPs but you do see this happen.


I do not think they will be held against Jokic this year. Normally, I would agree that they would be Jokic's stats this year are so insane with a TS% of 70.3% and averaging a triple double at 24ppg 11rpg 10apg while leading his team to the #1 seed in the West. That is ridiculous. 10apg as a center! My god. Triple double. 70% TS%! This is unreal. He won't be denied.

[Phantom255x]

What I don't understand with the Middleton talk is that, is Jrue Holiday a scrub? He exists and is a very good player. He's been playing regularly, including in games Giannis is out (where they are 6-5 WITHOUT Giannis, btw). In fact he's probably a nice #2 on a lot of teams.

And if we want to talk playoffs, in 2021 Giannis missed the last few games of the ECF, and guess what, MIL still went on to win the next two games and that series to reach the Finals.

Giannis probably is the real MVP, but it's also odd seeing all these posts acting like the whole team around him is garbage. Brook Lopez literally put up 33 last night in a game Giannis only played like 9 minutes before getting hurt and they won rather easily.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets and C's are both below .500 with Jokic and Tatum don't play.

I would agree holiday is better than Middleton now and probably moving forward. I think at least one poster here hypes Middleton as a way to denigrate the Celtics finals run as they have posted about how the Celtics only beat them because they missed Middleton about 40 times.

Yeah like I know Middleton is an awesome player. I've said many times that he's a C's killer (he turns into prime Ray Allen or Steph Curry against us it seems). But it's not like Jrue Holiday is just some role player. Brook Lopez is one of the better overall big men in the league who can hit some 3s too. Giannis absolutely has enough around him even without Middleton.

And funny enough, I think Jaylen Brown is a better overall player than Middleton and Holiday (and younger), but there's some on this blog who say the C's are better off without him and that he's a bit overrated 

[Who]

I am not down on Jokic's lack of playoff success.

His team had two good playoff runs that were unexpected. The previous two years were the first times his team had a chance at winning a title but they were wiped out due to injuries to Jamal Murray (#2) and Michael Porter Jr (#3).

Those two guys are now back. So I view this as the first time there are legit title expectations for Jokic in the postseason.

[liam]

Does defense count at all in the MVP voting?

[celticsclay]

Moranis is right about lack of postseason success being used against candidates for MVP awards. It is a big reason why Harden won only 1 MVP despite fantastic individual & team success in the regular season. His failures in the playoffs were held against him.

As they were with Giannis as pointed out by Moranis.

Edit: this seems to happen to repeat MVPs rather than first time MVPs but you do see this happen.


I do not think they will be held against Jokic this year. Normally, I would agree that they would be Jokic's stats this year are so insane with a TS% of 70.3% and averaging a triple double at 24ppg 11rpg 10apg while leading his team to the #1 seed in the West. That is ridiculous. 10apg as a center! My god. Triple double. 70% TS%! This is unreal. He won't be denied.

How in the world is he right? It’s a regular season award. Show me media people saying they didn’t vote for someone because they were poor in the previous postseason (and there are plenty of voters that regularly talk about their reasoning for voting throughout the season on podcasts. Also why did Steve nash win multiple mvps? He never even made the finals. This is an extremely flawed argument and you are too good a poster to hitch your wagon to it.

Edit: I’ll even go further with this because it is so misguided if bill simmons or anyone else that had a vote started talking on their podcasts about how they were voting for Doncic over jokic for mvp  because jokic lost to the eventual champion warriors without Murray or Gordon and Doncic made WCF last season they would be contacted by the league. And if they kept it up they would lose their vote for not understanding what the award was for. Like Jesus Christ.

If there was some season where on player won the finals mvp the previous season and the other player famously choked in a huge upset. Maybe in a dead heat some voters would use it as a tiebreaker. But acting like a player can’t win the mvp in a season because his team lost to a heavily favored team the previous season is just flat out stupid and inaccurate.

[celticsclay]

Does defense count at all in the MVP voting?

Nash, Harden, Curry, Jokic, Westbrook have about 10. So not very much.

[Donoghus]

Does defense count at all in the MVP voting?

Not much. 

You have a defensive player of the year award.  No such offensive player of the year award exists so you definitely get an offensive slant on the MVP award.

[Moranis]

I'm honestly surprised people don't know voters do this.  I thought voter fatigue and lack of post season success being reasons guys didn't win MVP's was common knowledge.

I mean here is Tim MacMahon on why Giannis wasn't going to win 3 in a row (he finished 4th but was clearly the best player in the sport that season and should have won it if it was based solely on that one regular season).

https://twitter.com/TroIledByAkumpo/status/1626239118127599618?t=ASXSFDOA2J-eZTl51hRyKw&s=19

"It's an award for one regular season, but it is hard to justify giving three straight to a guy who is yet to take his team to the finals, much less won a championship."

This has been discussed on talk radio since at least the 90's when people were trying to justify why Jordan wasn't winning MVP's every year (obviously not the 2 years he was off, but the other 6).  The lack of making the Finals is also why Magic was awarded the 89 MVP instead of Jordan.  Jordan averaged basically 33/8/8 and was the reigning MVP and DPOY.  Magic was obviously great at 23/8/13, but he wasn't better than Jordan as Jordan led the league in basically all value based metrics i.e. WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP (and it wasn't all that close). 

This isn't new.  Yes the award is for one regular season, but voters rarely treat it that way, especially after guys have already won 1.  Harden was never going to get a 2nd, even if it was deserved, because Harden hasn't had the post season success.  He is thought of as an empty stat stuffer in the regular season who can't win when it matters (that isn't fair to Harden, but it is his reputation). 

[celticsclay]

I'm honestly surprised people don't know voters do this.  I thought voter fatigue and lack of post season success being reasons guys didn't win MVP's was common knowledge.

I mean here is Tim MacMahon on why Giannis wasn't going to win 3 in a row (he finished 4th but was clearly the best player in the sport that season and should have won it if it was based solely on that one regular season).

https://twitter.com/TroIledByAkumpo/status/1626239118127599618?t=ASXSFDOA2J-eZTl51hRyKw&s=19

"It's an award for one regular season, but it is hard to justify giving three straight to a guy who is yet to take his team to the finals, much less won a championship."

This has been discussed on talk radio since at least the 90's when people were trying to justify why Jordan wasn't winning MVP's every year (obviously not the 2 years he was off, but the other 6).  The lack of making the Finals is also why Magic was awarded the 89 MVP instead of Jordan.  Jordan averaged basically 33/8/8 and was the reigning MVP and DPOY.  Magic was obviously great at 23/8/13, but he wasn't better than Jordan as Jordan led the league in basically all value based metrics i.e. WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP (and it wasn't all that close). 

This isn't new.  Yes the award is for one regular season, but voters rarely treat it that way, especially after guys have already won 1.  Harden was never going to get a 2nd, even if it was deserved, because Harden hasn't had the post season success.  He is thought of as an empty stat stuffer in the regular season who can't win when it matters (that isn't fair to Harden, but it is his reputation).

Really spinning stuff here. Nobody on the forum is arguing that voter fatigue isn’t a real thing. This is a complete straw man and not what anyone is talking about.

Ironically you are contradicting the point you are trying to make with the Jordan stuff. Which I’m surprised you didn’t think about before posting. If post season success was a big factor than jordan WOULD have won all the mvps especially considering Malone never won one championship. Further making the point funny is that Jordan was literally beating Malone in the finals when they matched up. You are arguing in favor of it being a regular season award by pointing out jordan not winning it and Malone winning it.

 This also happened with Lebron even despite him making the finals or winning it every year. It’s literally a regular season award. So yes voter fatigue is definitely real. This happens in every sport. But why are nash and Malone winning multiple mvps without ever winning a championship?

Now if you want to change the subject to whether their is voter fatigue a lot more people would agree with you, even me. But if you want to talk about jokic being penalized for losing to heavily favored warriors in last seasons playoffs with some weird off on stuff in a 4 game sample that is a completely different topic and what a lot of us are having a good laugh about.

You post really intelligent things sometimes I don’t get why you do this straw man nonsense and contradict yourself so much.

[tazzmaniac]

I think it will be awesome when Jokic wins his third straight MVP and then the Nuggets fail to reach the NBA Finals yet again.

Without Jokic the Nuggets would never have even made the playoffs. I find this silly remarks.

Is Lillard a garbage player because in his whole career he only won four playoff series?

Yeah I really don’t get the need people have to want to try and take jokic down a peg. There was a good article on deadspin about him not having any all star teammates, or really anyone that was even under serious consideration. Meanwhile Boston, Bucks, clippers, 76ers etc all have at least two all stars or one that had serious consideration/made it last year. Even Dallas has two now.

The Nuggets have good players.  You could swap out plenty of players for Jokic and the Nuggets would still be good in the regular season and a few might even make them better in the playoffs. 
Giannis, Embiid and Tatum are all much better defenders than Jokic but that doesn't seem to carry any weight in regards to MVP voting.  I may be misremembering but didn't Jokic get "benched" in a playoff game? 

In 2017/18, Embiid in his first full season of play led a Sixers team to a 52-win season where the rest of their starters were Simmons (1st season), Saric (2nd season), Covington and Redick.  They even made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs.  The Grizzlies won 56 games last season.  Morant was their only star and they arguably played a bit better without Morant on the court.  Atlanta with Millsap, Horford and Teague in 2015-16 won 60 games.  If I paid more attention to the NBA, I expect I'd be able to spout of lots of other examples of the top of my head.  You don't need multiple all-stars to win 50+ games in the NBA.  You don't even need a single all-star. 

If folks want to say Jokic should still be leading MVP voting that's fine but he shouldn't be dominating the voting.

Few notes from the article:
In fact, among the top seeds in the East and West, Denver is the only top-3 seed from either conference without a pair of 2023 All-Stars inside its locker room. Boston’s offense is carried by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on its wings.

If Denver finishes the 82-game schedule as the No. 1 seed, they’d be the first one in the Western Conference without multiple All-Stars since the 2014 San Antonio Spurs won their final title of the Duncan era

Objectively this is very unusual. I get you are an Embid guy, and I like Embid too (think it was closer last year or the year before). But these are facts. Rare to see a top seed with one all star, let alone nobody else on the team that has made one (excluding deandre Jordan’s corpse)

Last season, Denver finished 6th in the West.  16 games behind the Suns.  So what's the justification for Jokic winning last season? 

Unless I'm missing something, Houston finished 1st in the West in 2017/18 and Harden was their only all-star.  Miami finished 1st in the East last season with Butler as their only all-star.  Celts finished 1st in 2016/17 with IT4 as their only all-star.  Cleveland finished 1st in 2015/16 with Lebron as their only all-star.  So not that unusual. 

Jamal Murray may not be an all-star but his season is worthy of all-star consideration.  Porter and Gordon are having good seasons too.  Jokic isn't carrying a lot of dead weight.  Someone posted they wouldn't make the playoffs without Jokic which is nonsense. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I think it will be awesome when Jokic wins his third straight MVP and then the Nuggets fail to reach the NBA Finals yet again.

Without Jokic the Nuggets would never have even made the playoffs. I find this silly remarks.

Is Lillard a garbage player because in his whole career he only won four playoff series?

I never said that Jokic (or Lillard, or anyone else) is a garbage player. It just amuses me that there's so much praise for Jokic during the regular season, and he's on the verge of becoming only the fourth player ever to win three straight MVPs, but he doesn't have the postseason success to match. Perhaps my cynicism in this is the product of living in an age of media saturation in which I hear over and over and over about how great certain players are, and when those players don't win The Big One, my natural reaction is, "Well, I guess they aren't that great, are they?"

Then again, I'm not a big fan of MVP discussions in general. The MVP award is sort of a glorified popularity contest, which doesn't appeal to me, and it doesn't have any real rules or even guidelines, so we can't even have everyone approach the discussion in the same way. Similar to the conversation around the various Halls of Fame.

On top of that, for as good as his on/off differential has been in the regular season, it has been NEGATIVE in the playoffs the last 3 years.  Denver has actually better when he is on the bench in the playoffs.  Even during the WCF run in 2020, Jokic's on/off differential was -3.0 in the playoffs.  Murray was +10.2 and Porter was +14.6 during that run.  In 21, when they went to WCS without Murray, Jokic's differential in the playoffs was -8.2, only Austin Rivers was worse on the team.  Last year in the first round loss in 5, Jokic -12.4, but Gordon was +4.6.  Jokic has been truly amazing in the regular season, but has come up very small in the playoffs.  That is why I wouldn't give him the award when there are other deserving candidates.  He absolutely needs to prove it in the playoffs.  Just as Giannis did.  I mean Jordan and Lebron didn't even win 3 in a row and they were considered the best player in the sport for like a decade and found far greater regular season and post season success than Jokic. 

Right now, I think he is clearly behind Giannis and Tatum.  I'd probably have Jokic 3rd, but I'd also consider Embiid in that spot.  I think those 4 are pretty firmly ahead of Doncic, Morant, Mitchell, and everyone else.

MVP is a regular-season award, so I think it should be treated as such, but the lack of playoff performance you point out is part of the reason I sort of get a chuckle out of the Jokic MVP talk, because I'm confident the Nuggets will once again fail to even reach the NBA Finals.

You really would fault jokic for losing to durant and Booker? Or Leonard and George (if they are actually healthy). If he lost to like the blazers or kings who have either one superstar of zero, sure. If he loses to the grizzlies, which is possible, that would be an indictment of his value compared to Morant. But the rest of it I don’t see how it impacts his value as a player. I don’t think Giannis is worse if the bucks lose to the Celtics. I don’t think Embid is worse if the Celtics or bucks beat them. Also at least jokic has made the WCF. A player like Embid has never even been past the second round despite multiple all star teammates in butler, simmons and harden.

I'm not comparing him to any other player, or comparing his team to any other team. I just think it's funny that sports media and sports fandom tend to latch onto certain players and give them tons of praise and hype, and that there's all this hand-wringing and these time-wasting debates about something (MVP award) that doesn't even have rules to guide voters — like I said, it's basically a glorified popularity contest — and then oftentimes those players end up watching the NBA Finals from home. So are those guys really MVPs?

But whatever, I just want the Cs to win titles.