NBA Season 2022-23

[The Oracle]

It is a mistake to believe that the Lakers strategy is to jack up all those 3's.  The number of 3's a team takes is as much dependent on how you are defended as it is your strategy.  When defenses take away the rim because they would rather you shoot 3's, you are left with little option but to shoot them even though that's not what you want to do.

During the 2018-2019 season the Milwaukee Bucks led the league in defensive rating, they also forced their opponents to shoot a league leading 34.9 3's per 100 possessions, they were the only team above 33.5.  This seems to have caused a shift in philosophy league wide as the next year there was a dramatic jump in the number of 3's taken/forced.  In the 2020 season the Raptors led the league forcing 38.2, the Heat 37.7, the Bucks 37.1 and in all 17 teams were over 33.5.  They have risen more since. 


   

[Surferdad]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme. 

[Surferdad]

double-post

[Goldstar88]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme.

Yeah, he might be in over his head.

Coach Darvin Ham said the Lakers' analytics department determined the team had more quality shot attempts by their metrics than any of the other three teams that played on opening night, adding to his belief that they are the shots his team is supposed to take.

Ham was asked after the game whether the shots might be open because opposing defenses are packing the lane to cut off driving opportunities and daring the Lakers to shoot.

"I guess you could say that," Ham said. "But, I mean, we just have to take care of our business. That's the way that we want to play. If they want to give us those shots, then we'll accept it wholeheartedly. I mean, that's the way we want to play. We want to play fast, physical and free.

"And, again, we see these guys making shots in practice and shootaround. They got to do it on the game floor. It's as simple as that."

[Celtics2021]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme.

My point is I don’t think Ham has been given the power to make it work.  I think he’s been told to play Westbrook until informed otherwise.  Whether that has come from the front office, who wants to find a taker for Westbrook, or LeBron, who believes it can work, I couldn’t say, but I don’t think Ham has the power to not play Russ, no matter what Russ does. 

Or Perhaps LeBron and Ham have decided to let Westbrook tank the team to convince Lakers management to give Indiana that second pick for Hield and Turner.  The Lakers are a mess.  They were a mess last year without Darvin Ham, and they’ll be a mess this year with him unless they have a different roster.

[Moranis]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme.

Yeah, he might be in over his head.

Coach Darvin Ham said the Lakers' analytics department determined the team had more quality shot attempts by their metrics than any of the other three teams that played on opening night, adding to his belief that they are the shots his team is supposed to take.

Ham was asked after the game whether the shots might be open because opposing defenses are packing the lane to cut off driving opportunities and daring the Lakers to shoot.

"I guess you could say that," Ham said. "But, I mean, we just have to take care of our business. That's the way that we want to play. If they want to give us those shots, then we'll accept it wholeheartedly. I mean, that's the way we want to play. We want to play fast, physical and free.

"And, again, we see these guys making shots in practice and shootaround. They got to do it on the game floor. It's as simple as that."

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters. 

[footey]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme.

Yeah, he might be in over his head.

Coach Darvin Ham said the Lakers' analytics department determined the team had more quality shot attempts by their metrics than any of the other three teams that played on opening night, adding to his belief that they are the shots his team is supposed to take.

Ham was asked after the game whether the shots might be open because opposing defenses are packing the lane to cut off driving opportunities and daring the Lakers to shoot.

"I guess you could say that," Ham said. "But, I mean, we just have to take care of our business. That's the way that we want to play. If they want to give us those shots, then we'll accept it wholeheartedly. I mean, that's the way we want to play. We want to play fast, physical and free.

"And, again, we see these guys making shots in practice and shootaround. They got to do it on the game floor. It's as simple as that."

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Matt Ryan is but he rarely gets the ball. Other guys ignore him.

[bdm860]

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Have you looked at those stats in a while?  From the stats I see, it looks like he's improved the last few years.

It looks like Smart shot 38.9% on open 3s last year (and 40.6% in the playoffs), along with 76.9% on open 2s (down to 66.7% in playoffs).  An open Smart shot is looking pretty good to me.

Wasn't always the case though, Smart was shooting <30% on open 3s from '16-'18, but has continually improved from '19 on.

Westbrook was 31.7% from 3 and 49% from 2 on open shots last year, lol.  So ya, open shots aren't always good shots, but maybe give Smart another chance.

[Moranis]

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Have you looked at those stats in a while?  From the stats I see, it looks like he's improved the last few years.

It looks like Smart shot 38.9% on open 3s last year (and 40.6% in the playoffs), along with 76.9% on open 2s (down to 66.7% in playoffs).  An open Smart shot is looking pretty good to me.

Wasn't always the case though, Smart was shooting <30% on open 3s from '16-'18, but has continually improved from '19 on.

Westbrook was 31.7% from 3 and 49% from 2 on open shots last year, lol.  So ya, open shots aren't always good shots, but maybe give Smart another chance.

When Tatum, Brown, Grant, Horford, etc. are shooting over 40% on similar shots, then yes it is a bad shot when Smart takes it. 

[celticsclay]

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Have you looked at those stats in a while?  From the stats I see, it looks like he's improved the last few years.

It looks like Smart shot 38.9% on open 3s last year (and 40.6% in the playoffs), along with 76.9% on open 2s (down to 66.7% in playoffs).  An open Smart shot is looking pretty good to me.

Wasn't always the case though, Smart was shooting <30% on open 3s from '16-'18, but has continually improved from '19 on.

Westbrook was 31.7% from 3 and 49% from 2 on open shots last year, lol.  So ya, open shots aren't always good shots, but maybe give Smart another chance.

When Tatum, Brown, Grant, Horford, etc. are shooting over 40% on similar shots, then yes it is a bad shot when Smart takes it.

Am I reading this chart wrong? It has Horford at 35.5, brown at 37.5, Tatum at 40.5 and grant Williams at 44 (wow). If that is the case it’s clearly not a bad shot and we certainly don’t yell at brown or Horford for taking open threes. Cool they have these stats now to bring into discussions.

[ozgod]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

I was just going to write that. What is Ham doing? Lakers had 45 attempts from 3pt making only 9. Does he not realize that his team is lacking the shooters for that type of strategy to work. Clippers on the other hand only took 29. Just terrible coaching by the LAL.

This is the chicken and egg question - when you get good quality shots, do you take them or turn them down because you've been missing? If that's what the defense is giving you, and they are cutting off driving lanes to keep you away from the basket, do you try and force the ball inside against multiple defenders anyway?

As you said, Darvin Ham said they were getting good shots. It really raises the question, what is a good shot and when should a player be taking it?

I'm sure most fans (us Cs fans included) have yelled at the TV to "stop taking those [dang] threes!" when the players are missing...God knows we've had nights where the team has shot 25% from 3. The question becomes, what quality is the shot being taken, and is the team capable of taking those shots, and what is the alternative based on the way the other team is defending? People used to (and still) leave Smartacus open and load up on everyone else because they want him to take 3s. If he then takes a wide open 3 and misses is that a bad shot? Or should they try and force it to who the defense is sweating on?

That said, the Fakers seem to be around the 35% career 3FG% mark for the players that played last night...is that good enough to take the perimeter shots the defense is giving them? I'd be inclined to say if you can hit one in three threes you should be taking open threes, especially if the defense has decided to take the rim away from you in the halfcourt and you can't force turnovers and run on the other end. So I can't blame Ham too much. Westbrick on the other hand has never been a good three point shooter, he shoots 30% so maybe they should have worked to give other shooters better looks than having him brick it over and over again. Or maybe they should develop a scheme that plays to their strengths and go old style and post LeBum and AD up even if they get doubled.

But then again it's the Fakers, they can brick it all day and it won't bother me 

[Goldstar88]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

You think Russell Westbrook listens to Darvin Ham?  Darvin Ham can’t “allow” Westbrook to do anything. He had him come off the bench for a single pre-season game, and Westbrook started blaming Ham for getting hurt because apparently Westbrook doesn’t know how to properly stretch.  Unless and until LeBron says it’s okay to banish Westbrook from the team, he’s going to play when and how he wants to play, which includes bricking a ton of 3s.  And defenses are going to give him, and most of the Lakers, that shot all night long, making it harder to find room to operate closer to the basket.

I knew someone would say that and I even thought of that myself. Still, the coach has the power to play the right players to make the scheme work. He should bench anyone who is not playing team ball and at the same time not even playing to his strengths. I have no idea what RW is thinking, but he's much better driving downhill or on a fast-break. So, in my opinion Ham is the problem, regardless of whether it is not playing the right players or designing the offensive scheme.

Yeah, he might be in over his head.

Coach Darvin Ham said the Lakers' analytics department determined the team had more quality shot attempts by their metrics than any of the other three teams that played on opening night, adding to his belief that they are the shots his team is supposed to take.

Ham was asked after the game whether the shots might be open because opposing defenses are packing the lane to cut off driving opportunities and daring the Lakers to shoot.

"I guess you could say that," Ham said. "But, I mean, we just have to take care of our business. That's the way that we want to play. If they want to give us those shots, then we'll accept it wholeheartedly. I mean, that's the way we want to play. We want to play fast, physical and free.

"And, again, we see these guys making shots in practice and shootaround. They got to do it on the game floor. It's as simple as that."

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Yep, I agree. That’s why I led with the, “He might be in over his head.”

[bdm860]

Maybe in theory they are good shots, but if you don't account who is taking the shot, the metric is worthless.  I have had very similar arguments on this board with people regarding Smart.  Just because Smart is wide open, doesn't mean it is a good shot.  Any 3 point shot Smart takes, means a better shooter isn't taking the shot, so it almost always is a bad shot in the overall picture.  The Lakers problem is, they just don't have any good 3 point shooters.

Have you looked at those stats in a while?  From the stats I see, it looks like he's improved the last few years.

It looks like Smart shot 38.9% on open 3s last year (and 40.6% in the playoffs), along with 76.9% on open 2s (down to 66.7% in playoffs).  An open Smart shot is looking pretty good to me.

Wasn't always the case though, Smart was shooting <30% on open 3s from '16-'18, but has continually improved from '19 on.

Westbrook was 31.7% from 3 and 49% from 2 on open shots last year, lol.  So ya, open shots aren't always good shots, but maybe give Smart another chance.

When Tatum, Brown, Grant, Horford, etc. are shooting over 40% on similar shots, then yes it is a bad shot when Smart takes it.

How many wide open players do you think you can find on any one possession?

You're wrong on this one (in regards to present day Smart, not the overall point).  If Smart's wide open, he should take the shot.  Better odds than passing to a presumably covered Tatum, Horford, Brown, or Grant.

Unless you got different stats than what I'm providing (from '21-'22).

Wide open 3s
Horford 35.6%
Brown 37.6%
Smart 38.9% (not an anomaly, steadily improving on these since '19)
Tatum 40.5%
Grant 44.6%

All 3s
Smart 33.1%
Horford 33.6%
Tatum 35.3%
Brown 35.8%
Grant 41.1% (but he really only shoots open or wide open 3s: 16.7% under tight coverage, 38.2% open, and 44.6% wide open).

[Who]

I was watching an interview with a head coach recently. I forget, I'm not sure, who it was but I think it was Earl Watson on Gilbert Arenas' podcast. Anyway ...

The coach, let's go with Earl Watson, was talking about the analytics deparment - same as Ham above - who were telling Earl Watson what were the shots the team wanted. What were good shots. They wanted lots of threes. Just keep shooting them. They are worth more than twos. And Watson is there "not if they can't make 'em".

Watson was talking about how the analytics deparment never even factored in who was taking the shots and whether they were any good at shooting three point shots. And his team sucked at them. They had already any outside shooters. Yet the analytics team kept insisting he change strategy and shoot more 3s.

I forget whether Watson backed down and did it or whether he stood up to them and said no.

But crazy how badly run that analytics deparment was and it sounds like the exact same thing in LA with Darvin Ham. 

[Goldstar88]

LAL shouldn't even play Westbrook. Just drop him from the team. They'll be better off without him.

0-11 including 0-6 from 3.  2 points in 27 minutes.  Lakers don't have nearly enough assets to move his contract to any other team.

The problem isn't Westbrook. Darvin Ham should not allow him to shoot from 3 that much. He knew coming into the job that Westbrook was shooting too much. Nothing has changed for this team.

I was just going to write that. What is Ham doing? Lakers had 45 attempts from 3pt making only 9. Does he not realize that his team is lacking the shooters for that type of strategy to work. Clippers on the other hand only took 29. Just terrible coaching by the LAL.

This is the chicken and egg question - when you get good quality shots, do you take them or turn them down because you've been missing? If that's what the defense is giving you, and they are cutting off driving lanes to keep you away from the basket, do you try and force the ball inside against multiple defenders anyway?

As you said, Darvin Ham said they were getting good shots. It really raises the question, what is a good shot and when should a player be taking it?

I'm sure most fans (us Cs fans included) have yelled at the TV to "stop taking those [dang] threes!" when the players are missing...God knows we've had nights where the team has shot 25% from 3. The question becomes, what quality is the shot being taken, and is the team capable of taking those shots, and what is the alternative based on the way the other team is defending? People used to (and still) leave Smartacus open and load up on everyone else because they want him to take 3s. If he then takes a wide open 3 and misses is that a bad shot? Or should they try and force it to who the defense is sweating on?

That said, the Fakers seem to be around the 35% career 3FG% mark for the players that played last night...is that good enough to take the perimeter shots the defense is giving them? I'd be inclined to say if you can hit one in three threes you should be taking open threes, especially if the defense has decided to take the rim away from you in the halfcourt and you can't force turnovers and run on the other end. So I can't blame Ham too much. Westbrick on the other hand has never been a good three point shooter, he shoots 30% so maybe they should have worked to give other shooters better looks than having him brick it over and over again. Or maybe they should develop a scheme that plays to their strengths and go old style and post LeBum and AD up even if they get doubled.

But then again it's the Fakers, they can brick it all day and it won't bother me 

I think it’s important to look at the players that are getting minutes and taking the vast majority of shots. Most of those guys are not career 35% from 3pt. Beverly’s decent as is Ryan and Nunn. JTA is just average, everyone else is below. Those 4 guys attempted 12 out of the 45 shots from deep yesterday. Coach Ham needs to balance the lineups better to make sure that there are shooters on the court or they need to stop taking so many 3’s. I do think they should change their strategy and post up AD, LeBron, Westbrook as you suggested. Hopefully they don’t, though. It’s fun watching them go off the rails.