Red Sox 2022

[Roy H.]

Not a great start:

Kyle Schwarber has signed with the Phillies.

Chris Sale  has a stress fracture in his rib cage and will miss "weeks, not days" and won't be available to start the season.

[Vermont Green]

Yes, but we signed Jake Diekman.  (Kidding of course).

Got to let the entire offseason play out though before judging.  Lots of pieces still in motion.  Losing out on Kyle Schwarber is not a huge loss in of itself.  A stress fracture in the rib cage for your ace pitcher though is pretty scary.

[jambr380]

I'm not worried about the stress fracture. People crack ribs, they heal, and then they are good to go. Sale is getting older and isn't exactly the pinnacle of health, though. We have to find a way to keep him healthy once he's ready.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason works out. Don't want a repeat of the 2020 season.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Sale hurt. Shocker.

Stickman has been (not surprisingly) breaking down for a few years. I don't have high expectations for him this season.

Stinks to lose Schwarber. Definitely hurts the team's offense. The lineup could once again be top heavy, as Bradley, Arroyo, and Vazquez don't bring much to the plate, and Verdugo's bat isn't anything to write home about. Hopefully JD has another solid year, but he's 34, so who knows.

All in all, lots of question marks coming into the season.

[nickagneta]

If the Sox replace Schwarber with Freddie Freeman....I'm down with that.

[Silas]

Missing Sale for a few months will definitely hurt.  Then again, a couple of young pitchers will get their chance to show what they have.  I would like to see Freeman join the Sox, a much better all around player than Schwarber, although he is a few years older than Schwarber.

[Vermont Green]

I'm not worried about the stress fracture. People crack ribs, they heal, and then they are good to go. Sale is getting older and isn't exactly the pinnacle of health, though. We have to find a way to keep him healthy once he's ready.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason works out. Don't want a repeat of the 2020 season.

I am not a Doctor but cracking a rib because you were hit or something seems very different than getting a stress fracture that results in a cracked rib.  What caused the stress?  Just throwing?  Or the general getting in shape activity?  I would be less worried if he, I don't know, slipped on ice and fell and cracked his rib but I don't like the sound of "stress fracture".  I am not sure I have ever heard of that related to a rib.

Most overuse bone injuries occur in the lower extremities. Many athletes have heard of stress fractures, but most often they occur in the foot, leg, or hip. Metatarsal stress fractures are common in hikers and military recruits, tibia stress fractures occur in distance athletes and dancers, and hip stress fractures may happen to long-distance runners. Much more uncommon are upper extremity stress fractures, including stress injuries to the rib cage

Rib stress fractures occur in all types of athletes but have been found to be more common with certain sports and activities including rowing (crew), baseball, backpacking, dance, and windsurfing. Stress fractures occur when bone cannot withstand the accumulated stress of a particular activity. Unlike acute fractures where a high-energy injury causes the bone to fail, a stress fracture is the result of a repetitive low-energy injury-causing accumulating damage to the bone.

Rib stress fractures are incredibly frustrating injuries and can be difficult to treat. Treatment often takes many months for full resolution of symptoms, and many athletes struggle to come back to sports. One of the most challenging aspects of returning to sports is the psychological component of being worried about a recurrence of the injury. The best approach is when athletes move away from the sport, and not try to shortcut the healing process. Once symptoms have fully resolved, and then a period of rest has taken place, then athletes can consider when to return to sports.

[Vermont Green]

Schwarber got 4 years $79M.  He is a career 0.237 hitter (0.343 OBP) and probably gets you 20-25 HR and 70'ish RBI based on career track record.  I wonder if he will be their DH, probably. 

I am not that concerned over this one.  It is not an outrageous contract but I feel the money can better spent.

But hey, just reported we signed Dan Altavilla to a minor league deal.

[Roy H.]

Schwarber got 4 years $79M.  He is a career 0.237 hitter (0.343 OBP) and probably gets you 20-25 HR and 70'ish RBI based on career track record.  I wonder if he will be their DH, probably. 

I am not that concerned over this one.  It is not an outrageous contract but I feel the money can better spent.

But hey, just reported we signed Dan Altavilla to a minor league deal.

Why 20-25 HRs?  He’s hit 26+ HRs in every season where he’s gotten at least 60 ABs.

[Vermont Green]

Schwarber got 4 years $79M.  He is a career 0.237 hitter (0.343 OBP) and probably gets you 20-25 HR and 70'ish RBI based on career track record.  I wonder if he will be their DH, probably. 

I am not that concerned over this one.  It is not an outrageous contract but I feel the money can better spent.

But hey, just reported we signed Dan Altavilla to a minor league deal.

Why 20-25 HRs?  He’s hit 26+ HRs in every season where he’s gotten at least 60 ABs.

I don't follow, 60 AB?  Even if you mean 600 AB, he has never had 600 AB in a season.  Anyway, he has hit 26+ HRs in 4 seasons (exactly 26 in 2018).  The other 3 seasons he was injured too much to get enough ABs never hit more than 16.  I suspect that over these next 4 seasons, he will get 26+ maybe 2 of them and be injured in the other 2 and get less than 20 HR thus averaging about 20-25, just like he did for the other 7 seasons of his career.  Maybe as a DH he won't get injured so much, who knows.

And even if he hits 0.235 with 26 HRs every season, I am still not that concerned.  We already have a better DH and there isn't really a position for him to play every day.

[Roy H.]

Not surprisingly, the rich get richer and the Sox get to bank more money:  Freddie Freeman is headed to the Dodgers for 6 years, $162 million.

[Vermont Green]

Not surprisingly, the rich get richer and the Sox get to bank more money:  Freddie Freeman is headed to the Dodgers for 6 years, $162 million.

Wow, yeah, that is disappointing, I was hoping we would be in this.  6 years is too much though.  There will be decline, probably in 3 years.

Contrast how people are currently reacting negatively for signing Sale while at the same time insinuating that the Sox are being cheap for not signing Freeman.  Long term contracts for older players are risky.  They turn out bad more times than not.  Teams have to take some risks sometimes though.  I am OK with not outbidding the Dodgers for Freeman.  I would rather see them trade for an overpriced pitcher.  We have Dalbec, it is fair to assume that he will progress.  He might give us, what, 70%, 80% of Freeman at a fraction of the cost.

Freeman was 0.300, 31 HR in 600 AB last season.  Dalbec was 0.240, 25 HR in 417 AB.  Post All Star, Dalbec was 0.269 with 15 HR in 175 AB.  Is it unreasonable to assume that a young player will continue to improve?  Prorated to 600 AB, Dalbec's post all star HR pace would result in over 50 HR.  That is probably not going to happen but is say 0.275 with 30 HR terribly unrealistic for Dalbec?  Vs. maybe 0.300 and 35 HR max for Freeman?  Is that 80%?

It just wasn't worth it to pay that money over that length of contract for Freeman.  I don't view that as cheap.  I view that as good business, so long as the do end up doing something else.

[Smartacus]

Wohooo! Trevor Story

The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a contract for $140MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. (Twitter links) It will be a six-year deal, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. There is a “complicated opt-out,” according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, “whereby if he opts out the Red Sox retain an option to keep him at different terms.” After four years, Story can opt out of the deal, but then Boston is allowed to negate the opt-out by picking up a seventh-year option and making it a seven-year, $160MM deal, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/red-sox-to-sign-trevor-story.html

[Roy H.]

I hope we’re not signing him as he’s beginning to decline. 

[footey]

Wohooo! Trevor Story

The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a contract for $140MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. (Twitter links) It will be a six-year deal, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. There is a “complicated opt-out,” according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, “whereby if he opts out the Red Sox retain an option to keep him at different terms.” After four years, Story can opt out of the deal, but then Boston is allowed to negate the opt-out by picking up a seventh-year option and making it a seven-year, $160MM deal, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/red-sox-to-sign-trevor-story.html

Does this mean we are unlikely to re-sign Boegarts?  Or move him to another position? I read some speculation would be that he would be moved to 3rd and Devers to 1st base.  Boegarts' fielding stats at short stop are below average.  Is Story a better shortstop defensively?