Author Topic: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him  (Read 22109 times)

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Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #120 on: June 17, 2018, 08:24:53 AM »

Offline gouki88

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What if Leonard has peaked? What if, when he is on a team with other all-star players, he only averages 18, 6, and 2 with all-nba level defense? What if his athleticism is waning as fast as Gerald Wallace's did at the same age?

Cuz that is how I view Leonard moving forward. Brown is almost that already, and has another 6-10 years of peak athleticism and development to his game.

I'm bumping this because I haven't seen interaction with it.

I genuinely think Leonard has peaked. This is an ultimate sell-high moment for the Spurs. If they get a kings ransom and Leonard's athleticism falls off a cliff due to nagging injuries/age, that trade will go down as one of the best trades of the decade.

I think he will likely be closer to 18 points a game in his new system over the next 4-5 years. Here is my reasoning:
1. Waning athleticism combined with poor ball-handling that prohibits him from getting to his spaces on the court
2. Not playing in Pops system, which was tailored to Leonard's spots on the court. Remember when they switched a few years ago from the 4-out offense to playing through the mid-post? That was adjusting the offense to fit Leonard's game, but almost no other team runs that offense in the league. Can Leonard score at that high of a level with a normal NBA offense?
3. He peaked. This is not a player that has had multiple 25 ppg seasons. He had one season like that and one season at 21 ppg. What if he was closer to the 21 ppg than the 25 ppg scorer? That year his free throw rate spiked considerably, way higher than any other year in his career in the NBA or college. One of the first things to go when athleticism wanes is the ability to draw fouls.
I think this could be quite a legitimate concern. Obviously we won't know until he comes back, but it's not worth the risk when Brown was effectively an 18/5 guy with elite defence in the playoffs. Of course it's not quite the level that Leonard was (and might still be at) defensively, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. We were the best defensive team in the league starting a rookie and a sophomore.

The only real difference between Leonard (if he's peaked) and Brown is that ~20% free throw % differential. If Brown can make strides there along with his control of the ball attacking the ring, i.e. not getting blocked and fumbling a lot, then he's almost untouchable
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #121 on: June 17, 2018, 08:30:06 AM »

Offline JBcat

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years

I'm just talking in terms of skills and style of play, and in going back and looking at some highlights from Richardson's career, Brown, at this point in time, looks like a clone of the former Michigan State Spartan :-\.

Whoever first made that comparison was right on. The much maligned nbadraft.net, I believe, had Jason Richardson/Jimmy Butler as Brown's player comp.

The more I think about it Richardson is a good combination of reasonable expectation and style of play with the hopes Brown can exceed him.  Richardson had 3 years scoring over 20 a game, and averaged 17.1 for his career.  Brown made a huge leap in his game this past year, and it will be interesting to see how much improvement he has left, or if he starts to level off.  I wish at this point Brown was in year 3 or 4 of his career as we would have a much clearer answer of who he is.  Maybe he surprises, and becomes something like Clyde Drexler. Ha

I think sometimes people, myself included, throw around the all star label loosely.  It’s very tough to become one of the best 10 wings in the game in any given year.  A fringe all star status with Brown would be fine.  When you start to think of names you can see how tough it can be.  His competition for all star status is his 2 fellow wings Hayward and Tatum, then you have Derozan, Simmons, James, Oladipo, Giannis, Beal, Harden, Durant, Thompson, McCollum, George, Leonard, Butler, and then you have other promising young wings Gordon, Wiggins, Mitchell, Ingram, Josh Jackson, and incoming top prospects the next couple years like Doncic, Porter JR, Reddish, and Barrett.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #122 on: June 17, 2018, 09:31:17 AM »

Offline cman88

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time) and the Spurs and wants to go to the Lakers?

Then theres the whole fact that he missed a whole season with injury.

Look at the PG13 situation. essentially OKC is going to have traded for a one year rental

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #123 on: June 17, 2018, 09:33:44 AM »

Offline hodgy03038

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time) and the Spurs and wants to go to the Lakers?

I can't trust Kawhi and the way he has handled everything this past season. Who knows how much or if he would even play. Too risky for a guy that is probably out the door at season's end. It has to be LBJ that has enticed him into this request. Stay away - far away.


Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #124 on: June 17, 2018, 09:39:30 AM »

Offline cman88

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time) and the Spurs and wants to go to the Lakers?

I can't trust Kawhi and the way he has handled everything this past season. Who knows how much or if he would even play. Too risky for a guy that is probably out the door at season's end. It has to be LBJ that has enticed him into this request. Stay away - far away.

Yeah, I didn't even think to imagine how he handled this season. not communicating with the spurs brass and essentially holding out all year. Its a red flag when you act this way towards an organization that is as renowned as the spurs.

Considering the grief people here gave Kyrie for missing game 7. They sure want to trade for a guy who didnt support his teammates one bit in the playoffs/throughout the season.

These lakers rumors are coming from one place...Kawhi himself and his group. Its to let other teams know not to trade for him because he will leave in a year...

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #125 on: June 17, 2018, 10:15:53 AM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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What if Leonard has peaked? What if, when he is on a team with other all-star players, he only averages 18, 6, and 2 with all-nba level defense? What if his athleticism is waning as fast as Gerald Wallace's did at the same age?

Cuz that is how I view Leonard moving forward. Brown is almost that already, and has another 6-10 years of peak athleticism and development to his game.

I'm bumping this because I haven't seen interaction with it.

I genuinely think Leonard has peaked. This is an ultimate sell-high moment for the Spurs. If they get a kings ransom and Leonard's athleticism falls off a cliff due to nagging injuries/age, that trade will go down as one of the best trades of the decade.

I think he will likely be closer to 18 points a game in his new system over the next 4-5 years. Here is my reasoning:
1. Waning athleticism combined with poor ball-handling that prohibits him from getting to his spaces on the court
2. Not playing in Pops system, which was tailored to Leonard's spots on the court. Remember when they switched a few years ago from the 4-out offense to playing through the mid-post? That was adjusting the offense to fit Leonard's game, but almost no other team runs that offense in the league. Can Leonard score at that high of a level with a normal NBA offense?
3. He peaked. This is not a player that has had multiple 25 ppg seasons. He had one season like that and one season at 21 ppg. What if he was closer to the 21 ppg than the 25 ppg scorer? That year his free throw rate spiked considerably, way higher than any other year in his career in the NBA or college. One of the first things to go when athleticism wanes is the ability to draw fouls.
He may have peaked. As one of the best players in the NBA. He's the best defensive player in the league, and should have been MVP a year ago.

No one we bring in is going to score more than 20 or so a game as long as we have the depth we do now, so him averaging 18 a game may not be far off.

Trading for him would be a no-brainer, if we could be assured he'd re-up. But we can't be certain of that, so giving up anything of significance for him is a non-starter. Such a huge decision for this franchise can't be left in the hands of, reportedly, KL's uncle.

Ainge has to pass unless the deal is a non-Sac draft pick and Rozier, or thereabouts.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #126 on: June 17, 2018, 10:31:51 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time)

This isn't accurate at all. He "handled" playing for Pop just fine evidenced by his multiple all-star selections, multiple all-NBA team selections, multiple defensive player of the year awards, finishing 2nd in MVP voting in 15-16, and 3rd in MVP voting in 16-17.

The issues seem to be with the way Pop continually called him out in the media over his injury. That's what probably burned bridges and it has nothing to do with Pop the coach.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #127 on: June 17, 2018, 11:41:14 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time)

This isn't accurate at all. He "handled" playing for Pop just fine evidenced by his multiple all-star selections, multiple all-NBA team selections, multiple defensive player of the year awards, finishing 2nd in MVP voting in 15-16, and 3rd in MVP voting in 16-17.

The issues seem to be with the way Pop continually called him out in the media over his injury. That's what probably burned bridges and it has nothing to do with Pop the coach.
Yeah, plus Parker and Ginobili (particularly TP) have been acting like immature jerks. Poor examples of leadership, and further contributed to the burning of the bridge. They brought this upon themselves
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PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
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PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #128 on: June 17, 2018, 12:02:40 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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What if Leonard has peaked? What if, when he is on a team with other all-star players, he only averages 18, 6, and 2 with all-nba level defense? What if his athleticism is waning as fast as Gerald Wallace's did at the same age?

Cuz that is how I view Leonard moving forward. Brown is almost that already, and has another 6-10 years of peak athleticism and development to his game.

I'm bumping this because I haven't seen interaction with it.

I genuinely think Leonard has peaked. This is an ultimate sell-high moment for the Spurs. If they get a kings ransom and Leonard's athleticism falls off a cliff due to nagging injuries/age, that trade will go down as one of the best trades of the decade.

I think he will likely be closer to 18 points a game in his new system over the next 4-5 years. Here is my reasoning:
1. Waning athleticism combined with poor ball-handling that prohibits him from getting to his spaces on the court
2. Not playing in Pops system, which was tailored to Leonard's spots on the court. Remember when they switched a few years ago from the 4-out offense to playing through the mid-post? That was adjusting the offense to fit Leonard's game, but almost no other team runs that offense in the league. Can Leonard score at that high of a level with a normal NBA offense?
3. He peaked. This is not a player that has had multiple 25 ppg seasons. He had one season like that and one season at 21 ppg. What if he was closer to the 21 ppg than the 25 ppg scorer? That year his free throw rate spiked considerably, way higher than any other year in his career in the NBA or college. One of the first things to go when athleticism wanes is the ability to draw fouls.
I think this could be quite a legitimate concern. Obviously we won't know until he comes back, but it's not worth the risk when Brown was effectively an 18/5 guy with elite defence in the playoffs. Of course it's not quite the level that Leonard was (and might still be at) defensively, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. We were the best defensive team in the league starting a rookie and a sophomore.

The only real difference between Leonard (if he's peaked) and Brown is that ~20% free throw % differential. If Brown can make strides there along with his control of the ball attacking the ring, i.e. not getting blocked and fumbling a lot, then he's almost untouchable
Is this a joke?  We’re concerned because he peaked and MVP level player?  By that measure, Kevin Durant has peaked too. 

And can we stop measuring guys with numbers.  If you’re a star, you’re a star.  He’d command that kind of attention and make that kind of impact regardless.

And no, Jaylen isn’t anywhere near as good and I’d put it at 5-10% that he ever reaches that level (MVP level).  I know people hate the Jeff green comparison, and that’s understandable.  But I have another possibility for brown...Al Jefferson.  Not in their style of play obviously, but not every player becomes what people expect.  Al was good enough to be the centerpiece of the KG trade, and was of course, not a bad player.  Averaged 20-10 a time or two but never became a star.

Let’s stop using second year stats and some kind of superstar predictor.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #129 on: June 17, 2018, 12:14:24 PM »

Offline gouki88

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What if Leonard has peaked? What if, when he is on a team with other all-star players, he only averages 18, 6, and 2 with all-nba level defense? What if his athleticism is waning as fast as Gerald Wallace's did at the same age?

Cuz that is how I view Leonard moving forward. Brown is almost that already, and has another 6-10 years of peak athleticism and development to his game.

I'm bumping this because I haven't seen interaction with it.

I genuinely think Leonard has peaked. This is an ultimate sell-high moment for the Spurs. If they get a kings ransom and Leonard's athleticism falls off a cliff due to nagging injuries/age, that trade will go down as one of the best trades of the decade.

I think he will likely be closer to 18 points a game in his new system over the next 4-5 years. Here is my reasoning:
1. Waning athleticism combined with poor ball-handling that prohibits him from getting to his spaces on the court
2. Not playing in Pops system, which was tailored to Leonard's spots on the court. Remember when they switched a few years ago from the 4-out offense to playing through the mid-post? That was adjusting the offense to fit Leonard's game, but almost no other team runs that offense in the league. Can Leonard score at that high of a level with a normal NBA offense?
3. He peaked. This is not a player that has had multiple 25 ppg seasons. He had one season like that and one season at 21 ppg. What if he was closer to the 21 ppg than the 25 ppg scorer? That year his free throw rate spiked considerably, way higher than any other year in his career in the NBA or college. One of the first things to go when athleticism wanes is the ability to draw fouls.
I think this could be quite a legitimate concern. Obviously we won't know until he comes back, but it's not worth the risk when Brown was effectively an 18/5 guy with elite defence in the playoffs. Of course it's not quite the level that Leonard was (and might still be at) defensively, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. We were the best defensive team in the league starting a rookie and a sophomore.

The only real difference between Leonard (if he's peaked) and Brown is that ~20% free throw % differential. If Brown can make strides there along with his control of the ball attacking the ring, i.e. not getting blocked and fumbling a lot, then he's almost untouchable
Is this a joke?  We’re concerned because he peaked and MVP level player?  By that measure, Kevin Durant has peaked too. 

And can we stop measuring guys with numbers.  If you’re a star, you’re a star.  He’d command that kind of attention and make that kind of impact regardless.

And no, Jaylen isn’t anywhere near as good and I’d put it at 5-10% that he ever reaches that level (MVP level).  I know people hate the Jeff green comparison, and that’s understandable.  But I have another possibility for brown...Al Jefferson.  Not in their style of play obviously, but not every player becomes what people expect.  Al was good enough to be the centerpiece of the KG trade, and was of course, not a bad player.  Averaged 20-10 a time or two but never became a star.

Let’s stop using second year stats and some kind of superstar predictor.
The concern is that he will never return to his peak. That's a perfectly valid concern, especially for a guy who is potentially a 1 year rental and is a complete mystery at this stage.

I don't think anyone is making the case that JB will be like Kawhi. However, I think he can be a 16-20ppg scorer with elite defence, which this season indicated was almost a certainty
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #130 on: June 17, 2018, 12:54:41 PM »

Offline cman88

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Do we really want a guy that cant handle playing for POP(who is one of the greatest coaches of all time)

This isn't accurate at all. He "handled" playing for Pop just fine evidenced by his multiple all-star selections, multiple all-NBA team selections, multiple defensive player of the year awards, finishing 2nd in MVP voting in 15-16, and 3rd in MVP voting in 16-17.

The issues seem to be with the way Pop continually called him out in the media over his injury. That's what probably burned bridges and it has nothing to do with Pop the coach.

he sat out a whole season when he was healthy and kept his team in the dark because he didn't want to hurt his "value."

people on this board are upset with Kyrie just because he got Knee surgery.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #131 on: June 17, 2018, 01:19:32 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Agree that Kawhi’s injury is a major concern. I also think the Szcerbiak comp sells Brown short. This year, Brown routinely guarded the other team’s best scoring wing or off guard. He is already better than Szcerbiak ever was on that side of the ball, and barring injury there’s no reason to think he won’t get better, given his work ethic and time to develop physically. His floor (already achieved) is plus defender; his ceiling is all-NBA defender.
I don't want to sell Szczerbiak short either.  He was an elite shooter and made an all-star team once.  I'm hopeful Jaylen can reach that level.  Peak Szczerbiak flirted with the 50/40/90 club, though, which is unlikely for Jaylen.
Why did you even compare them when they're such different players?

You consistently undersell, or even ignore, the defensive end when evaluating players, particularly JB. I don't get it
yeah brown was ok defensively. I agree it’s not fair to compare them.  Jaylen has a long way to go until he is close to what peak Wally Szczerbiak was on offense and it’s super unlikely he ever shoots that well.  I think the reason people say his ceiling is Szczerbiak is mainly because it’s another good example (along with j rich) of a fringe star and that’s likely what Jaylen will become.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #132 on: June 17, 2018, 03:15:32 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #133 on: June 17, 2018, 03:20:48 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years

I'm just talking in terms of skills and style of play, and in going back and looking at some highlights from Richardson's career, Brown, at this point in time, looks like a clone of the former Michigan State Spartan :-\.

Whoever first made that comparison was right on. The much maligned nbadraft.net, I believe, had Jason Richardson/Jimmy Butler as Brown's player comp.

The more I think about it Richardson is a good combination of reasonable expectation and style of play with the hopes Brown can exceed him.  Richardson had 3 years scoring over 20 a game, and averaged 17.1 for his career.  Brown made a huge leap in his game this past year, and it will be interesting to see how much improvement he has left, or if he starts to level off.  I wish at this point Brown was in year 3 or 4 of his career as we would have a much clearer answer of who he is.  Maybe he surprises, and becomes something like Clyde Drexler. Ha

I think sometimes people, myself included, throw around the all star label loosely.  It’s very tough to become one of the best 10 wings in the game in any given year.  A fringe all star status with Brown would be fine.  When you start to think of names you can see how tough it can be.  His competition for all star status is his 2 fellow wings Hayward and Tatum, then you have Derozan, Simmons, James, Oladipo, Giannis, Beal, Harden, Durant, Thompson, McCollum, George, Leonard, Butler, and then you have other promising young wings Gordon, Wiggins, Mitchell, Ingram, Josh Jackson, and incoming top prospects the next couple years like Doncic, Porter JR, Reddish, and Barrett.

Well, on this plus side, and while his ball handling obviously still needs work, at least he isn't looking down when he dribbles, haha (not that I could do any better, of course. I was just comparing him to Drexler in this regard).

Unfortunately, Brown is nowhere near Clyde in terms of passing, though, so yeah :-\.

Re: Why Kawhi Leonard...we already have him
« Reply #134 on: June 17, 2018, 04:32:55 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We have to ask ourselves if Kawhi was playing in the 7th game vs the Cavs this year and not Brown would he have been better for us?

I think Ainge knows he needs his defense on Bron, KD and Harden...while getting 20 himself.

Can Brown do that? I think he can he's not there yet.

As a 21 year old, Brown averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. He also had a bum hamstring.

As a 21 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player.

As a 22 year old, Leonard averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds, while defending the other team's best player. This run included a 4 point game, a 7 point game, and a 6 point game. It also included two 9 point games in the finals.

As a 23 year old, the Spurs were eliminated by the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Leonard had 12 points and 13 points in games 6 and 7, both of which were losses.

The concept that, because Brown struggled in game 7, it means his ceiling isn't as high as Leonard, is flawed.

We're not trading for Kawhi at 21, 22, or 23. If Kawhi is healthy, he is better than Brown, and any reasonable expectation of what Brown turns into. I have high hopes for Brown, but Leonard is a two time DPOY and MVP candidate

Disagree but neither of us will say anything new and neither of us will convince the other.

The argument that was made (and has been made in other places) was regarding Jaylen's upside due to his poor last game. That argument is flawed. That was my only point.

No, your premise is flawed. I said that last game vs Cavs because ultimately that's what all this boils down too. Getting Kawhi now is what's important. We know Brown will eventually get better but how much is the question.

In order for Ainge to regret this trade Brown would have to be the DPOY multiple times, and be a top 5 player in the league within 5 years. Is that possible?
Of course its possible that Brown could be that good, but your point is that the odds are that he won't.

I would say that Jaylen's odds of becoming an occasional all star are about 25%
His odds of being Paul George good are about 50%
His odds of being top 5 good are about 25%

Jaylen has a huge upside.

You are also ignoring the very real possibility that Kawhi Leonard doesn't have problems going forward. Last year was disturbing on several levels. It is hardly a sure bet that he comes back as if nothing had happened. There is a very real possibility that Jaylen is the better player in a year or two.
you are basically saying there is a 75% chance brown ends up Paul George at the least. 

That’s wildly optimistic.  The most likely scenario, by far, is that he peaks out as a fringe star that never makes an allstar team.

Brown might end up terrific, but his ceiling is stil lower than prime kawhi.  Best case scenario he ends up like jimmy butler.

No one has any clue what Jaylen Brown's ceiling is or what his best case scenario is.
lots of players had high ceilings they never reached.  His highest possible ceiling is probably jimmy butler. A mid-level expectation for him is probably André Iguodala.  Still a solid chance he ends up worse.
What are you actually basing these projections on? He doesn’t play like Jimmy Butler nor Iguodala

Yeah, I don't see any similarities, there, either. I tend to think that Brown, at least at this point, is a carbon copy of Jason Richardson.

Not sure as to how I feel about that, lol ;D.
I think he's definitely closer to JRich, but more of a defender and less of a passer. Although JRich came into the league at 21, so it might be a bit unfair to compare them for a couple of years
Agreed.  JRich is a reasonable ceiling for him.  Fringe star who put up big numbers, but never made an all-star team. 

Good call.  The question then becomes whether or not you think it's worthwhile to trade for a "top 5" player like Kawhi at the expense of a player who projects as Jason Richardson in a few years?
That's only the question if you ignore all context. Kawhi is, or at least was, a top 5 player, but he is injured and may never be that guy again. He is also an impending free agent who has expressed a desire to play in LA (aka as far from Boston as possible, really). JB is a guy who projects to be Richardson-esque, but is cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, is invested in Boston, is a leader of this team and is a healthy 21 year old.
I totally hear you and I agree that giving up a guy with a Richardson ceiling (or as I've heard others suggest - a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling) for an MVP-caliber player is a no-brainer, but when you consider that MVP-caliber player has injury concerns and might be a rental, having multiple years of a cost-controlled young player with a Wally Szczerbiak ceiling has a lot of appeal.

Where was this? Reddit?
For instance... my bubble tea guy, who has a proven track record of making a mean bubble tea while proving spot-on NBA insight, tells me jaylen optimistically projects as a smaller Wally Szczerbiak. 

Reddit opinions can differ wildly.  Most recently I’ve seen Jaylen compared to Shane Battier.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 04:39:36 PM by LarBrd33 »