I, unlike many internet GM’s, don’t believe a team trying to win a championship should just dump a starting-caliber role player for nothing just to get under the tax. I rather have him ride pine all playoffs than have to turn to Semi or Yabu in a big spot.
If we stretch Nader, we are still about $1.67M above the tax for 14 players, not including Bird.
Salary dumping Yabu would get us below, but I’m not sure what Bird’s number would be (under $1M keeps us under the tax), again for 14 players with zero salary to do anything during the season.
My guess is we stay put and become taxpayers, even for such a small amount. Then we have the $5.3M to play with during the season.
This is part of the issue actually. Seems a shame to start the repeater clock (which is what we want to avoid more than the actual tax this year) for such a small amount. Oddly, if we were way over then we might not be having this discussion.
While certainly it would be ideal to not be a tax team this year, it’s more ideal to put the best possible team forward when a legitimate title contender. If the tax is the price, and thus the repeater clock, so be it.
I've seen this point made by several people and in this case I do not think its the right way to approach this. First of all this team is gonna be good for a long time if we play it right, and to keep it together will require that repeater tax. So its not just the small payment this year thats the problem, its the fact you have to pay the higher rate a year earlier when you will likely be very expensive potentially result in 10's of millions of extra tax. Now if the owner shop is okay with that, then fine. But im skeptical, a historic tax payment which is possible is historic because it almost never happens. And before everybody says "owner shipping says they will pay" I get it, but pay and pay HUGE are different. If you can get under it makes too.much business sense not to.
And thats before you in factor in other things like playing time, a more limited role, not enough ball to go around and I think it makes even more sense to trade Morris. On top of all that, I think he is massively overated. This team was overall worse with him on the floor last year, his defense comes and goes, his offense is in efficient and he NEVER PASSES THE BALL. Even the idea of him as insurance is overated, because if injuries happen and you reach the point where Morris is a crítical part of your team next year, you arent winning it all.
Now that doesnt mean you have to trade him now. You can wait and see how the team is going before deciding. Maybe Semi steps up and makes him expendable. Maybe the rotation shakes out such that he doesnt get a lot of playing time and you just dont need him. Maybe injuries happen and Ainge decides he does need him. But I think trading Morris is an obvious move.
Of course I am often wrong.
Look, I get it. I’m a tax hawk and started a thread about why I felt Aron Baynes wasn’t going to stick around because of the tax and that Smart would get a deal in the $12-14 million range. I was half right. I also am not a huge Marcus Morris fan. I think he’s a bit of a chucker who is prone to being a malcontent. He’s not a must-have.
But despite not being a must-have, he’s a guy we do have, and he fills a role at both ends of the court. And especially come playoff time he could be highly useful. If Kawhi shows up to Toronto, he’s the type of player who would be a good defender against him. The same would potentially be true in the finals against both Durant and Draymond. And, despite having chucking tendencies, he’s not a cipher on offense like some other options on the roster. Even with a fully healthy roster, he’s someone who would likely see 20-25 minutes a night against potentially conference final and NBA final opponents. If you’re seriously trying to win a title this year, as the Celtics seem to be, you don’t dump a player like Morris just to stay out of the tax. Maybe you don’t enter the tax to acquire him, but once in the roster, you kee the status quo.
I hear the common refrain of “the repeater tax will mess things up down the road and we’re set for years.” I get where it comes from. But it ignores the fact that Kyrie is a free agent next summer and this could be our best shot at a title for several more seasons, not to mention that Kyrie leaving takes the tax out of play next year. Horford is also a free agent if he chooses. And while I’d bet on both staying, I’d feel less comfortable with that bet if we lost a tight finals in 6 or 7, and it felt like we were a piece away having dumped Morris at the break (or now) to get under the tax. Losing a tight series after management dumped a key reserve for cost savings is not the type of taste you want in either Kyrie’s or Horford’s mouth entering free agency.
Meanwhile, the cost of the repeater tax is starting to get overstated. Entering a year early probably costs the Celtics $15-20 million four years from now. This is in addition to about $10 million this season (tax, some salary, and share of luxury tax revenues). It’s not peanuts, but $25-30 million spread over a couple of years is perfectly affordable to a team that reportedly netted $100 million last year after revenue sharing.
Now it’s a something else if Morris starts grousing about playing time and is a problem in the locker room, and/or if Semi passes him on the depth chart. If Morris is your 10th-11th man instead of your 7th-8th man, that’s a different story and you absolutely do look to move him. Or, obviously, if he gets hurt. But where we are today, you keep him. The Celtics have a shot at a title. They should take it.