Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020 Watch Thread (#14)

[saltlover]

Is the general consensus that we don't want this pick to convey this year because it's a weak draft?

1) It’s a weak draft at the top, but is reasonably deep.
2) Unprotected picks from likely lottery teams are just more valuable on the trade market.  Furthermore, if Memphis picks in the top 6 this year and the Celtics really want someone who is there at #7, they could make that swap in an instant with whomever is at #7.
3) It will be much easier to avoid the luxury tax next season if the pick doesn’t convey than if it does.  Missing next year would restart the clock on being repeater-tax eligible.

[Sophomore]

Is the general consensus that we don't want this pick to convey this year because it's a weak draft?

I think the best reason would be to chase upside - the chance that you'll get the 1st or 2nd pick in 2021 and be able to grab a franchise player. 

Seventh is a nice pick, and you can get a solid player, even an all-start. But there are also plenty of role players and busts at that level, and nothing can change a team's future like getting a great number 1. And heck, if you think the Grizz are due for two years of terrible, your odds of getting at least a number 7 are pretty good and it's at least worth rolling the dice.

The main reasons not to want it to roll over, I think, are: (1) you think the Grizz are going to be at least decent in 2020-21 (say, 10th worst to, possibly, sniffing the playoffs) and you think our odds of a 1 or 2 are slim (remember the Sacto pick?); or (2) you like the idea of getting the 7th or 8th pick next year (still pretty good, possibly) and adding another good player on a rookie deal to our core.

Assessments about the strength of a future draft class usually aren't worth all that much, and that's especially true if you're trying to estimate how strong the draft is going to be 7-14. If the pick conveyed next year at 7th or 8th, how does that compare to getting the 7 or 8 the following year. If someone tells you they know the answer to that one right now...

[gpap]

We need this pick to be as high as possible when we trade for Towns

[rondofan1255]

Is the general consensus that we don't want this pick to convey this year

Poll added!

[mobilija]

Is the general consensus that we don't want this pick to convey this year because it's a weak draft?

I think the best reason would be to chase upside - the chance that you'll get the 1st or 2nd pick in 2021 and be able to grab a franchise player. 

Seventh is a nice pick, and you can get a solid player, even an all-start. But there are also plenty of role players and busts at that level, and nothing can change a team's future like getting a great number 1. And heck, if you think the Grizz are due for two years of terrible, your odds of getting at least a number 7 are pretty good and it's at least worth rolling the dice.

The main reasons not to want it to roll over, I think, are: (1) you think the Grizz are going to be at least decent in 2020-21 (say, 10th worst to, possibly, sniffing the playoffs) and you think our odds of a 1 or 2 are slim (remember the Sacto pick?); or (2) you like the idea of getting the 7th or 8th pick next year (still pretty good, possibly) and adding another good player on a rookie deal to our core.

Assessments about the strength of a future draft class usually aren't worth all that much, and that's especially true if you're trying to estimate how strong the draft is going to be 7-14. If the pick conveyed next year at 7th or 8th, how does that compare to getting the 7 or 8 the following year. If someone tells you they know the answer to that one right now...

In other words, the draft is crap shoot and everyone has opinions but not neccassarily facts...

Edit: Not meaning to crap on your very solid post, just being snarky. TP to you

[bdm860]

Is the general consensus that we don't want this pick to convey this year because it's a weak draft?

1) It’s a weak draft at the top, but is reasonably deep.
2) Unprotected picks from likely lottery teams are just more valuable on the trade market.  Furthermore, if Memphis picks in the top 6 this year and the Celtics really want someone who is there at #7, they could make that swap in an instant with whomever is at #7.
3) It will be much easier to avoid the luxury tax next season if the pick doesn’t convey than if it does.  Missing next year would restart the clock on being repeater-tax eligible.

Also have to consider roster constraints.

C's have 15 players now + 2 two-ways a lot of people are excited about and I'm sure want to stick around.

They already have 2 1st round draft picks next year (their own + Bucks), so that's 2 more roster slots you need.

Sure a trade could clear some of that up (one of those 4-for-1's that have been talked about so much here  ), but you don't want to be forced to make a trade or draft a player to stash (like Yabusele) because you don't have room for them.  You want to get top dollar for your assets, not be forced to sell them off at a discount or lose them for nothing.  Also good to maintain flexibility to make trades as they arise.

No point in having so many young players on your roster if you don't have the opportunity to properly develop them and give them minutes.  Even if you drop the players with the smallest fan clubs (Wanamaker, Ojeleye, Green, Poirier) there's not going to be any minutes available to develop new players if you're still trying to develop Time Lord, Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Tacko, and Waters.

[CelticsElite]

Salary is the main reason we Don't want it to convey

Every draft has talented players even the weakest ones

[BringToughnessBack]

Much rather have a chance at top pick the following year.

[keevsnick]

Much rather have a chance at top pick the following year.

Always, 100% of the time, every time, you take the chance at an unprotected pick in the lottery.

[rondofan1255]

Magic def. Grizzlies 118-86

 

[rondofan1255]

Mavs def. Grizzlies 138-122

Morant and Clarke sat out on SEGABABA, as did Porzingis. They're managing Morant's minutes unlike, say, NYK with RJ Barrett. He has only eclipsed 30 mins once, in an OT win. Mins played: 25, 28, 32, 25, 29, 28, 26, 26

[nickagneta]

Mavs def. Grizzlies 138-122

Morant and Clarke sat out on SEGABABA, as did Porzingis. They're managing Morant's minutes unlike, say, NYK with RJ Barrett. He has only eclipsed 30 mins once, in an OT win. Mins played: 25, 28, 32, 25, 29, 28, 26, 26

Maybe they aren't managing Morant's minutes as much as they are trying to minimize his positive effect on the game. Gotta embrace the tank, after all.😃

[keevsnick]

Mavs def. Grizzlies 138-122

Morant and Clarke sat out on SEGABABA, as did Porzingis. They're managing Morant's minutes unlike, say, NYK with RJ Barrett. He has only eclipsed 30 mins once, in an OT win. Mins played: 25, 28, 32, 25, 29, 28, 26, 26

Maybe they aren't managing Morant's minutes as much as they are trying to minimize his positive effect on the game. Gotta embrace the tank, after all.😃

Morant has actually been one of the few rookie guards who don't make their team worse when he's on the floor. I mean the Griz are still a net negative rating team with him on, but its a better negative number than him off.

[rondofan1255]

SBNation’s Celtics site has the same ongoing poll.

On SBNation:

81 want the pick this year (47%)
93 next year (53%)

[keevsnick]

SBNation’s Celtics site has the same ongoing poll.

On SBNation:

81 want the pick this year (47%)
93 next year (53%)

I guarantee you the Celtics front office hopes that pick rolls over.