To recycle a post from another thread...
good, fun, lazy sunday activity.
First, the celts will still be looking to compete deep in the playoffs, so assuming they keep the pick, they'll be looking to draft to fit a specific need.
We can also assume that while ownership will be willing to pay considering the nice returns this year, they will only have the midlevel exception to work with (call it 5.5 mil.)
Here's who will be under contract next year:
Garnett
Pierce
Ray Allen
Perk
Scal
Rondo
Powe
Pruitt
Davis
*Posey
*Tony Allen
That's 71,369,509, so no cap space.
Posey has a player option, and considering that not many teams will have cap space, and posey was willing to play for a contender for his paycheck this year, i bet he'll stay. That brings us to 74,831,989.
Tony Allen is where it gets very interesting. He'll be a restricted free agent, and i have no clue what the c's will do. we can extend him for any amount of money without affecting our mid-level exception because of bird rights, and we have the right to match any offer. If t.a. doesn't get offers from other teams and doesn't like the c's offer, he'll play for 2,744,299 and be an unrestricted free agent. Honestly, considering that the luxury tax this year is at 67.865, everything we do next year will cost double. So let's pencil T.A. in for 3.5 million, somewhere between his qualifying offer and a too-high bid for him. We're now at 78,331,989, with a conservative estimate of 86,000,000 total cost when counting the luxury tax. This is why i don't think we'll trade the pick, with D.A.'s eye for talent I think he'd like to add a player who will be cheap for a few years. Anyway, we're looking at this depth chart before draft/free agency:
Rondo/Pruit
Ray/Tony
Pierce/Posey
Garnett/Powe/Scal
Perk/Davis
So where are we weak? to me, it looks like we are weak at point, considering pruitt is a huge question mark, and behind perk, we lack solid height (we don't want KG taking so much pounding his last few years as a C). We'll probably be picking around 28-30 and 58-60. To think about this, I'm using Hollinger's NBA success predictor and Ford's 100 prospects to see who might be a good fit and who has a chance to fall to those spots.
I know a lot of people don't like Hollinger, but he did predict above scout-predicted success for Big Baby, Thadeus Young, Dudley, scola, sean williams and McRoberst. He also predicted that Afflalo, Jeff green, corey brewer, Julian Wright and Pruitt would fall short of scout wisdom, all of which are pretty good predictions.
We have 5 roster spots, so some will be filled through free agency. I'm guessing that Brand, Arenas, Marion, Baron, Jermaine, and Iverson will either stay in their current contracts or opt out but re-sign with their current teams who will be able to go over the cap and offer max contracts. I don't see any of them opting out and signing for the mid-level. Maggette will probably opt out and sign with someone with cap room, or will be included in a sign-and trade.
One possibility is Artest. He might be willing to play for the midlevel, since everyone is very suspicious of him and boston is as appealing to vets as anywhere.
I don't think any restricted free agents will come our way. the really valuable ones will be matched by their teams, and ones we could get probably wouldn't be worth overpaying so their original teams don't match.
As for the unrestricted, it's very hard to predict who is at a point that they'd take a cut to play for a team like the C's. Kurt Thomas? Maybe Cassell if he likes what he sees this time around. Diop would be an ideal pickup, but it might the the whole midlevel. Kwame could be cheap and help with bench size.
Anyway, I'd look to the draft for PG or a big body, and if none are obvious, take the best player available since we'll have many open spots. So here are the projected players from Ford to fall to our range:
26 Courtney Lee SG 6-5 200 22 Western Kentucky
27 DeVon Hardin C 6-11 235 21 California
28 Richard Hendrix PF 6-8 260 21 Alabama
29 Trent Plaisted C 6-11 245 21 BYU
30 Tyler Hansbrough PF 6-9 225 22
31 James Harden SG 6-5 210 18 Arizona State
32 Tyler Smith SF 6-7 210 21 Tennessee
33 JaVale McGee C 7-0 237 20 Nevada
34 Ante Tomic C 7-2 237 21 Croatia
35 Bill Walker SF 6-6 225 20 Kansas State
36 Eric Maynor PG 6-2 165 20 VA Commonwealth
37 Brandon Rush SG 6-7 205 22 Kansas
38 John Riek C 7-2 230 18 Prep School
39 Douglas-Roberts SG 6-6 195 21 Memphis
40 Serge Ibaka PF 6-10 220 18 Congo
41 Andrew Ogilvy C 6-10 250 19 Vanderbilt
42 Austin Daye SF 6-10 190 19 Gonzaga
43 D.J. White PF 6-9 240 21 Indiana
44 Nathan Jawai C 6-10 270 21 Australia
45 Ryan Anderson PF 6-10 225 19 California
46 Wayne Ellington SG 6-5 175 20 North Carolina
47 Davon Jefferson SF 6-8 215 21 USC
48 Rudy Mbemba PG 6-0 186 20 Sweden
I'd be hesitant to take Hansbrough, but at least he's on hollinger's radar as an upperclassman. I just think he's a true PF who will duplicate a lot of Powe and Davis, not very athletic so won't take much wear off of garnett.
James Harden could be interesting, especially if Tony doesn't stay. He's hollinger's 5th rated prospect but projected 31.
Two others who look very intriguing are Ryan Anderson (projected 45; hollinger's 9th) and especially Andrew Ogilvy (projected 41; Hollinger's 8th). I really like Ogilvy. He's tough and likes to actually score in the post. He's pretty big, too. And Vandy's been pretty good this year. Eric Maynor could be interesting at point.
As for the second rounder, I'd go for Robin Lopez. His brother is better, but he's got great size and likes defense. Riek might fall that far too, that sudanese guy.
And you never know who might fall to #30. Collison at point? Koufos at center? Who knows.
Anyway, at this point I think I'd try to get the backup point through free agency because good points are hard to find in the draft and they take a while to get there. Also, I personally think that this team is best suited putting as much beef up front as possible to minimize the wear and tear on kg and maximize the minutes of kg at truly the 4, posey and pierce at 3, and ray at 2.
So I'd take Ogilvy at around 30 and robin lopez in the second round. then i'd try to convince posey to stay and sign TA to the 3-3.5 mil or so. then i'd try to use the midlevel to go after Udrih, Arroyo, dooling, duhon, or lue, preferably dooling or arroyo and keep enough to sign a midseason buyout again. this, of course, assuming that we couldn't use the midlevel to get arroyo and diop or kurt thomas, which i'd jump at.
So at the end, if i had my way, our salary obligations would be around 84 million, a 96 million total including luxury tax with the following roster:
Rondo/arroyo/pruitt
ray/tony
pierce/posey
kg/powe/davis/scal
Perk/Ogilvy/lopez
of course this doesn't take into account anybody shockingly taking a pay cut to play with friends on a contender (please, baron?) or a draftday trade of ray and the draft pick for a great 17 mill range pg or center (baron, brand, jermaine?).