NBA Playoffs 2023

[Moranis]

Since we had this discussion a few pages back, Jokic down to just +2.2 for his on/off differential per 100 possessions in the playoffs.  Obviously they haven't played a ton of games this playoff run, but this does also match the last several year trend.  Teams seem to be able to isolate Jokic some defensively and some of the role players play better without the offense running through Jokic, which hasn't happened as much in the regular season as it does in the playoffs.  Even last night we saw Denver go on a huge 2nd quarter run with Jokic on the bench (it was Murray, Gordon, and then the 3 bench guys Green, Brown, and Braun).

For as good as Jokic's on/off numbers are in the regular season, there does seem to be an issue in the playoffs.  That isn't normal (historically, the elite regular season performers are also elite post season performers in this) and I have no idea what the cause is, but it is concerning. 

[Phantom255x]

I'll say this. Both Denver and Miami are just way more tougher mentally than the C's

Even when the other team makes a run or grabs momentum, each team counters and fights back. Both teams did it multiple times yesterday. C's meanwhile would have likely folded early in each of the games, sad to say.

[celticsclay]

Since we had this discussion a few pages back, Jokic down to just +2.2 for his on/off differential per 100 possessions in the playoffs.  Obviously they haven't played a ton of games this playoff run, but this does also match the last several year trend.  Teams seem to be able to isolate Jokic some defensively and some of the role players play better without the offense running through Jokic, which hasn't happened as much in the regular season as it does in the playoffs.  Even last night we saw Denver go on a huge 2nd quarter run with Jokic on the bench (it was Murray, Gordon, and then the 3 bench guys Green, Brown, and Braun).

For as good as Jokic's on/off numbers are in the regular season, there does seem to be an issue in the playoffs.  That isn't normal (historically, the elite regular season performers are also elite post season performers in this) and I have no idea what the cause is, but it is concerning.

How concerning is it if they win the chip? Got to stop moving the goalposts on jokic. Everyone said they wanted some team success they did that and swept the lakers to make finals. They don’t have a single other guy in their rotation that has even made an all star game. Let’s stop being silly. 

[Goldstar88]

I also wanted to mess around with the stats for 3-point attempts, to test Joe Mazzulla's unconventional theory that 3PA are the biggest factor contributing to winning.  The two teams in the finals rank 8th (MIA at 34.0 3PA/gm) and 13th (DEN at 30.9 3PA/gm) out of the 16 playoff teams.  BOS for reference is 4th at 38.7%.

There does not appear to be any correlation between playoff success and 3PA rate.  The final 4 teams ranked 5th (BOS), 8th (MIA), 13th (DEN), and 15th (LAL) in playoff 3PA attempt rate.  If anything, it is weighted more towards the lower end with 3 of 4 being average or below average.  Making 3s is statistically far more impactful to success (not surprising).

Regular season, GSW, BOS, DAL, and MIL were the top 4 in 3PA.  The bottom 4 were ORL, ATL, NOP, and CHI.  DEN was 25th.  So the two top regular season records were in the top 4 of 3PA but the 3rd best team was 25th.  The bottom 4 in 3PA were all average or bad teams.  You could argue that DEN has Jokic which may lead to more inside shots, skewing this some, I don't know.

The bottom line is that I don't think there is any statistical basis for the theory that 3PA is the biggest factor to winning.  There was more correlation in the regular season over the playoffs but nothing determinative from what I can see.  It may be a bigger factor for the Celtics than the league at large, I don't know, but I have my doubts.  Meaning based on the Celtic's personnel, 3PA may be more important to them than a league average team.

I say let's get a big who can score and that will diversify our offense.  It the Celtics need to jack up 3s to win, based on personnel, maybe the team is not versatile enough. Over reliance on live by the 3 die by the 3 appears to lead to an overly inconsistent team.

Might want to tell Brad since he's the one constructing the roster. He wants the team to take all these 3's, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I'm just waiting for the NBA to create a 4pt line, since that's probably the only way the Cs will take fewer 3-pointers, LOL.

[gouki88]

I'm just waiting for the NBA to create a 4pt line, since that's probably the only way the Cs will take fewer 3-pointers, LOL.

Lillard and Trae Young would thrive

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I'm just waiting for the NBA to create a 4pt line, since that's probably the only way the Cs will take fewer 3-pointers, LOL.

Lillard and Trae Young would thrive

And Curry, and probably Thompson.

[Roy H.]

I'm just waiting for the NBA to create a 4pt line, since that's probably the only way the Cs will take fewer 3-pointers, LOL.

Lillard and Trae Young would thrive

And Curry, and probably Thompson.

Antoine might need to make a comeback.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I'm just waiting for the NBA to create a 4pt line, since that's probably the only way the Cs will take fewer 3-pointers, LOL.

Lillard and Trae Young would thrive

And Curry, and probably Thompson.

Antoine might need to make a comeback.

Ha! Yeah, why not.

[Moranis]

I honestly wouldn't mind putting that circle deep on the floor and counting it for say 5 points.  But I'd limit the amount of times you can take or make the shot.  Maybe the first 2 makes, and no more than 4 attempts.  I think that would add some excitement, especially at the end of games. 

[Moranis]

Irving is apparently trying to convince Lebron to force his way to Dallas.  I hadn't actually thought of that, but that would be interesting.

Assuming Lebron (and the Lakers) were ok with that, what type of trade would be reasonable.

Would either team do something like this?

Lebron for Hardaway, Bullock, 10

Lakers obviously get worse in the near term, but pick up a top 10 pick for development in their rebuild.

I assume they'd then look to move on from Davis (something like Simons, Sharpe, and 3 would make sense). 

They then bring back Reaves, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and add Simons, Sharpe, 3, and 10.  Not a contender but at least a decent foundation and they'd have a fair amount of cap space unless they significantly overpaid their free agents. 

The Blazers would add Davis to Lillard and give Lillard a real shot.  The Mavs would be incredibly fascinating with Kyrie, Luka, and Lebron.  I have no idea if they'd be any good, but they sure would be fascinating.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Irving is apparently trying to convince Lebron to force his way to Dallas.  I hadn't actually thought of that, but that would be interesting.

Assuming Lebron (and the Lakers) were ok with that, what type of trade would be reasonable.

Would either team do something like this?

Lebron for Hardaway, Bullock, 10

Lakers obviously get worse in the near term, but pick up a top 10 pick for development in their rebuild.

I assume they'd then look to move on from Davis (something like Simons, Sharpe, and 3 would make sense). 

They then bring back Reaves, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and add Simons, Sharpe, 3, and 10.  Not a contender but at least a decent foundation and they'd have a fair amount of cap space unless they significantly overpaid their free agents. 

The Blazers would add Davis to Lillard and give Lillard a real shot.  The Mavs would be incredibly fascinating with Kyrie, Luka, and Lebron.  I have no idea if they'd be any good, but they sure would be fascinating.

It would be shocking to me if James could be traded for that little, but if the Lakers were going to rebuild, that's not a bad start.

[SparzWizard]

I really hate this year's NBA on ESPN soundtrack. Maybe that's also the reason why the C's didn't do as well and just lost (jk, but sigh)

Really miss the 2011 - 2022 ESPN playoff soundtrack. More suspense, intensity...it's awesome.

[celticsclay]

Irving is apparently trying to convince Lebron to force his way to Dallas.  I hadn't actually thought of that, but that would be interesting.

Assuming Lebron (and the Lakers) were ok with that, what type of trade would be reasonable.

Would either team do something like this?

Lebron for Hardaway, Bullock, 10

Lakers obviously get worse in the near term, but pick up a top 10 pick for development in their rebuild.

I assume they'd then look to move on from Davis (something like Simons, Sharpe, and 3 would make sense). 

They then bring back Reaves, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and add Simons, Sharpe, 3, and 10.  Not a contender but at least a decent foundation and they'd have a fair amount of cap space unless they significantly overpaid their free agents. 

The Blazers would add Davis to Lillard and give Lillard a real shot.  The Mavs would be incredibly fascinating with Kyrie, Luka, and Lebron.  I have no idea if they'd be any good, but they sure would be fascinating.

It would be shocking to me if James could be traded for that little, but if the Lakers were going to rebuild, that's not a bad start.

I get he sells tickets and stuff, but yeah he would be a rental and could very retire next offseason. If it fully puts a team over the top (like going to warriors) I could maybe see it. But don’t think many teams would offer that much given his salary and year to year stage of his career

[theswitch]

Irving is apparently trying to convince Lebron to force his way to Dallas.  I hadn't actually thought of that, but that would be interesting.

Assuming Lebron (and the Lakers) were ok with that, what type of trade would be reasonable.

Would either team do something like this?

Lebron for Hardaway, Bullock, 10

Lakers obviously get worse in the near term, but pick up a top 10 pick for development in their rebuild.

I assume they'd then look to move on from Davis (something like Simons, Sharpe, and 3 would make sense). 

They then bring back Reaves, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and add Simons, Sharpe, 3, and 10.  Not a contender but at least a decent foundation and they'd have a fair amount of cap space unless they significantly overpaid their free agents. 

The Blazers would add Davis to Lillard and give Lillard a real shot.  The Mavs would be incredibly fascinating with Kyrie, Luka, and Lebron.  I have no idea if they'd be any good, but they sure would be fascinating.

My perception is that the Blazers view Sharpe as nearly untouchable. The kid just turned 20, an athletic wonder, and absolutely lit it up in the last month of the season when he had a chance to log consistent, real minutes. Look at his performances:

February -- 47.7% overall shooting, 37.2% from three, 9.3 PPG in 22.8 minutes
March -- 47.9% overall shooting, 42.5% from three, 13.8 PPG in 26.6 minutes
April -- 45.3% overall shooting, 28.1% from three (with three more attempts), 22.8 PPG in 32.3 minutes -- note, this is only four games

He's no guaranteed superstar, but his ceiling is about as high as it gets. I think that's part of the reason you see Simons shopped so liberally. Sharpe is a non-starter even for a guy like Davis unless it's basically straight up...Simons, Sharpe, and the #3 is a total robbery.