CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: CFAN38 on March 12, 2018, 12:37:19 PM
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Before the Tourney starts this is my 2018 draft tiers. With the leagues views on positions changing I decided to place players in 4 groups. 1. Bigs (players who will primarily defend big men) 2. Big Wings (traditional stretch 4s, 4/3 hybrids or large SFs) 3. Wings (primary perimeter players not likely to play point or defend in the paint) 4. Guards (players likely limited to defending traditional PG sized players or who are clearly point guards)
Tier 1
Ayton Big
Doncic Wing
Tier 2
Jackson Big
Bamba Big
Bagely Big
Porter Jr Big wing
Tier 3
Sexton Guard
Young Guard
Carter Big
Miles Bridges Big Wing
Mikal Bridges Wing
Tier 4
J Porter Big
R Williams Big
Gilgeous-Alevander Guard
K Knox Big wing
D Hunter Big wing
M Robinson Big
L Walker Wing
S Ponds Guard
Tier 5
T Brown Wing
Bates-Diop Big wing
Gafford Big
McCoy Big
Yurtseven Big
Musa Wing
Melton Guard
Z Smith Wing
Tier 6
Milton Wing
Alkins Wing
Bonga Wing
A Simons Wing
Duval Guard
Brunson Guard
Shamet Guard
Allen Wing
Based off of my tiers the Cs will have a shot at a player in tier 5 and should have their pick on tier 6. If that holds true Melton and Alkins both seem like DA type picks.
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Updating my Tiers based off of alot of reading and listening to podcast and switching to the Guard, Wing (traditional 2/3), Swing (traditional 3/4) and big positional designations.
Tier 1
Doncic Wing
Tier 2
Jackson Big
Ayton Big
Tier 3
Bamba Big
Bagely Big
Porter Jr Swing
Young Guard
Tier 4
Sexton Guard
Carter Big
Miles Bridges Swing
Mikal Bridges Wing
Tier 5
J Porter Big
R Williams Big
Gilgeous-Alevander Guard
K Knox Swing
D Hunter Swing
Z Smith Wing
M Robinson Big
L Walker Wing
S Ponds Guard
Tier 6
T Brown Wing
Bates-Diop Swing
McCoy Big
Musa Wing
Melton Guard
Tier 7
Milton Wing
Alkins Wing
Bonga Wing
A Simons Wing
Evans Wing
Duval Guard
Allen Wing
Tier 8
Trent Jr Wing
Frazier Wing
Brunson Guard
Shamet Guard
Yurtseven Big
If these Tiers play out as predicted the Cs would be looking like the 3rd pick in tier 7. I have that tier as holding a solid mix of high ceiling young players (Duval, Simons, Bongo), high floor college vets (Miton, Allen) and more mid level prospects in Alkin and Evans.
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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.
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A. Simmons...
J.porter
M. Robinson
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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.
Comparing Jackson Jr. To the bigs/swings in my tier 3 Bamba, Bagely and Porter Jr.
1. He is the youngest player in the group at only 18 1/2. Bagely is the next youngest at 19 while Bamba and Porter are almost 20.
2. He is the best over all defender in the group. Statistically he averaged 5 blocks per 36mpg compared to Bamba's 4.3. Outside of the stats he is clearly the best perimeter defending big in this class. His ability to switch to smaller players and provide elite rim protection places him in a very unique and desirable archetype.
3. Ill exclude Porter JR due to his small sample size but compared to Bagely and Bamba he is leading the grup for having the most potential as a floor spacer. Though his shot has a slightly different look to it he shot 39% on 2.7 3PA and .79% on 3.8FTA compared to Bagely who despite playing over 10 more mpg shot the same 39% on only 1.8 3PA and 62% on 6.3 FTA, Bamba was 27% on 1.73PA and 68% on 4FTA.
Looking over past college players I am having a hard time finding a player who shoots as many 3s as Jackson at nearly 40% while also averaging 2.5 (let alone 5) blocks per 36. The two best comps I can find are Bosh 1.7 3PA @ 47% and 2.5blks per 36 and M Turner 3.0 #PA @ 27% and 4.2blks per 36. In this years class Jontay Porter is actually another player who falls into this grouping as he averaged 2.5blks per 36 and shot 36% on 4.9 3PA. However he is no were near the level of athlete that Jackson is.
He may be raw as any 18 year old would be but he seems to play within his game and doesn't try to over extend himself. He really has the ideal mix of skills for a modern day big man. Given his young age and NBA pedigree I am confident to predict that he floor as a prospect is that of a Serge IBaka like role player.
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A. Simmons...
J.porter
M. Robinson
I really like Jontay but would be shocked/thrilled if he makes it to 27. He is a player who I would target in a trade up if moving from 27 to the late teens early 20s can be done for a low enough cost is possible.
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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.
Comparing Jackson Jr. To the bigs/swings in my tier 3 Bamba, Bagely and Porter Jr.
1. He is the youngest player in the group at only 18 1/2. Bagely is the next youngest at 19 while Bamba and Porter are almost 20.
2. He is the best over all defender in the group. Statistically he averaged 5 blocks per 36mpg compared to Bamba's 4.3. Outside of the stats he is clearly the best perimeter defending big in this class. His ability to switch to smaller players and provide elite rim protection places him in a very unique and desirable archetype.
3. Ill exclude Porter JR due to his small sample size but compared to Bagely and Bamba he is leading the grup for having the most potential as a floor spacer. Though his shot has a slightly different look to it he shot 39% on 2.7 3PA and .79% on 3.8FTA compared to Bagely who despite playing over 10 more mpg shot the same 39% on only 1.8 3PA and 62% on 6.3 FTA, Bamba was 27% on 1.73PA and 68% on 4FTA.
Looking over past college players I am having a hard time finding a player who shoots as many 3s as Jackson at nearly 40% while also averaging 2.5 (let alone 5) blocks per 36. The two best comps I can find are Bosh 1.7 3PA @ 47% and 2.5blks per 36 and M Turner 3.0 #PA @ 27% and 4.2blks per 36. In this years class Jontay Porter is actually another player who falls into this grouping as he averaged 2.5blks per 36 and shot 36% on 4.9 3PA. However he is no were near the level of athlete that Jackson is.
He may be raw as any 18 year old would be but he seems to play within his game and doesn't try to over extend himself. He really has the ideal mix of skills for a modern day big man. Given his young age and NBA pedigree I am confident to predict that he floor as a prospect is that of a Serge IBaka like role player.
I think you and a lot of scouts are making a lot of assumptions based on his youth, length and athleticism, and ignore his lack of feel and assertiveness on full display. I’ve been wrong before. We will see.
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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas. I think Ayton should remain tier 1.
I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.
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Finally, someone who loves getting into the draft on this site that sees how good Doncic is.
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Finally, someone who loves getting into the draft on this site that sees how good Doncic is.
I think Doncic is pretty clearly the best player in the draft right now. I just think the draft so often becomes about hope and potential and 5 years down the road who has the best ceiling and all of that. So in that sense I think Ayton and Porter (if he stays in) will go ahead of Doncic. Then Bagley may or may not go ahead of Doncic. Thus with Porter in I see Doncic as pick 3 or 4. And without Porter in I see Doncic as pick 2 or 3.
For any team who's already got a lot of youth and they're tired of losing and tired of all the hard work of developing guys, I could see Doncic as an attractive option. So I guess that's how I could see Doncic going #1. For example Phoenix has so much youth and athleticism already and may have rebuilding fatigue. They may see Doncic as an accelerator to getting more wins sooner.
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TP to CFAN38!
Crush of draft tierage. Thank you.
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Good list. I like Carter and I don't like young but both belong in tier 2 probably
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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas. I think Ayton should remain tier 1.
I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.
I agree I need to add K Thomas. At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk
I like Ayton but feel that Doncic is a generational talent. The question for Doncic will be how well his physical profile transitions to the longer faster NBA. His skill set is so elite for a 19 year old that I feel confident placing him a tier above. With that said Ayton may very well wow in workout and take the #1 spot. Ayton also has the potential to be a corner stone elite talent but his Defense is a major concern for me.
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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas. I think Ayton should remain tier 1.
I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.
I agree I need to add K Thomas. At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk
It'll be interesting to see where DiVincenzo is projected and if he ends up pursuing the draft.
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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas. I think Ayton should remain tier 1.
I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.
I agree I need to add K Thomas. At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk
It'll be interesting to see where DiVincenzo is projected and if he ends up pursuing the draft.
DiVincenzo should come out this year or risk a drop like Grayson Allen. DiVincenzo should be a 1st round pick around the 20s. Grayson Allen is probably an early second rounder...
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Not that interested in Michael Porter. I get it- he was hurt.
I still think he's a stiff. I don't think he has upper echelon athleticism. Is he a Reggie Miller type shooter? Can he take the soul to the hole like our man Jaylen?
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Not that interested in Michael Porter. I get it- he was hurt.
I still think he's a stiff. I don't think he has upper echelon athleticism. Is he a Reggie Miller type shooter? Can he take the soul to the hole like our man Jaylen?
I'm not a big MPJ fan but still have him in my third tier based on his ceiling. He is one of the few players in this class who has the potential to be a #1 scoring option. I also have concerns about Trae Young in the NBA but for the same high ceiling as Porter I also have him in my 3rd tier.
The 5th and 6th picks pre lottery are the Magic and the Bulls and I could see either of these teams taking Porter based on their needs to gamble on high end talent. My next tier of players are likely safer picks and clearly they have NBA roles but Sexton, Carter and the Bridges all seem like conservative picks ahead of MPJ and Young.
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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.
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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.
I never like when big wings are compared to Durant because Durants size and length are usually under valued. Durant has admitted in interviews that he is now 6'10 1/2 without shoes making him roughly 7' tall. His wingspan was previously measured at 7' 4 1/2 and likely grew as well. Only the Greak Freak has his level of measurements on the wing.
I like Rashard Lewis as a better comp for Porter Jr. I will be suprised if MPJ is a generational shooting talent like Klay Thompson.
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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.
I never like when big wings are compared to Durant because Durants size and length are usually under valued. Durant has admitted in interviews that he is now 6'10 1/2 without shoes making him roughly 7' tall. His wingspan was previously measured at 7' 4 1/2 and likely grew as well. Only the Greak Freak has his level of measurements on the wing.
I like Rashard Lewis as a better comp for Porter Jr. I will be suprised if MPJ is a generational shooting talent like Klay Thompson.
I said that pre-injury and got roasted lol. Lewis was a multiple time All-Star and had a really good 5 year stretch where he roughly averaged 20/6 as a #2 option.
Pretty good comp if you ask me
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update as of 5/4
Tier 1
Doncic Wing
Tier 2
Jackson Big
Ayton Big
Tier 3
Bamba Big
Bagely Big
Porter Jr Swing
Young Guard
Tier 4
Sexton Guard
Carter Big
Miles Bridges Swing
Mikal Bridges Wing
Z Smith Wing (moved up a tier)
Tier 5
J Porter Big
R Williams Big
Gilgeous-Alevander Guard
K Knox Swing
M Robinson Big
L Walker Wing
J Okogie Wing (added)
Tier 6
O Spellman Big (added
S Ponds Guard (dropped a tier)
T Brown Wing
Bates-Diop Swing
Musa Wing
Melton Guard
Evans Wing (moved up tier)
Tier 7
McCoy Big (dropped tier)
Milton Wing
Alkins Wing
Bonga Wing
A Simons Wing
Duval Guard
Divincenzo Wing (added)
Allen Wing
K Thomas Wing (added)
Tier 8
Trent Jr Wing
Frazier Wing
Brunson Guard
Shamet Guard
Mykhailuik Wing (added)
B Bowen Wing (added)
Hutchison Wing (added)
Holiday Guard (added)
D Graham Guard (added)
Wiley Big (added
Tier 9
Carter Guard (added)
Wagner Big (added)
G Clark Swing (added)
J Jackson Swing (added)
I have added players and shifted some guys around. This gets my list up to 48 players.
I have highlighted in orange a few players who I think have a great chance to out player their current tier much like D Mitchell has this year. Im not saying these players will be stars but they might go mid second and be surprise contributors.
1. Zhaire Smith, he is an absolute freak athlete. At this point he isn't much of a creator on offense but can hit open shots, is super active on the boards, and plays elite D. He could be the player who everyone looks back on as the steal of this draft and potential best player long term.
2. J Porter, not the hyped prospect his brother was but he has a lot to like when projecting him to the NBA. If he gets his body in line he could be a unique prospect who can both facilitate from the perimeter, shoot the 3, defend the 5, and give some rim protection.
3. Josh Okogie, he is a player that I cant believe more draft pundits are not higher on. He is only 6'4 but has a 7' wing span and was last weight in at 213lbs. He put up good number on a bad GT team scoring 18 ppg and 6rb. He projects as a good 3pt shooter and is really good at drawing contract and getting to the foul line. He also averaged 1blk per game and 1.8stl per game. Into today's position less game he will be a very switchable defender who I think will be a surprisingly effecting scoring option given good spacing.
4. Bates-Diop, he has the perfect size, length and skill set to player the modern swing role. He will need to gain strength to compete against the elite of the position but I feel he is currently being under sold on most mocks.
5. Grayson Allen, he is the classic over exposed college player. We have seen him so much that every one of his weaknesses are pointed out and put on display. My bottom line with Grayson is that I can see him contributing minutes on a playoff winning team. He shoots the ball well, is a capable secondary ball handler, is super competitive (to the point of immaturity), and has good positional strength.
6. Sviatoslav Mykhailuik, he is another player who we have seen a lot of over the past 4 years. Despite being a senior he is only 20 yrs old thanks to starting college at 17. His clear path to an NBA job will come as a lights out 3pt shooter. I was very impressed watching Myhaluik defend Marvin Bagely this year. Despite only having a 6'5 wing span at 6'8 and weighing in around 205-210lbs he seems to be a very willing and active on defense. As a bench shooter in the Kyle Korver mold all teams will really ask of him is to shoot lights out and engage on defense. I think he will be able to do both on the NBA level and will find him self a solid role on a wining team.
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Looking at the Cs draft history since 2014 on picks higher then 40 DA seems to hold to the following perimeters
1. +4 wingspan to height
2. projects as high level individual defender
3. high level athletic profile for position
4. little regard for 3pt shooting
Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart, Yabu, Mickey, Zizic and Semi (slightly less then +4 but close) all fall under these parameters. Smart, Yabu and Zizics athletic profile is high end based on positional strength.
The only outliers since 14 are Hunter and Young. Both had the + length but not the other traits. Both represents DAs failed attempts to draft a league ready shooter.
Looking at this draft I have a few prospects who hit on all of parameters who I think could be good fits on the Cs.
1. Zhaire Smith, smaller wing who is an elite NBA athlete. Reports are that he has around a 6'11 wingspan. Skill set is more of a role player at this point but ceiling is super high. (likely late lottery pick)
Troy Brown, 6'7 210lb 6'11 wingspan secondary ball handling wing. He was the ESPN 15th ranked recruit in his class. Had a productive Fresh year but lack of outside shot might make him slip (likely goes 14-20)
3. Josh Okogie, 6'4 wide body 215lb wing with an immense 7' wingspan. Has potential as a shooter and is great at getting to the rim and drawing fouls. On D he is great over picks and creates problems for opponents with length. My draft sleeper (late 1st)
4. De'Anthony Melton, built similar to Rozier he is a combo guard who is limited on offense but potentially and elite level perimeter defender in the Beverely mold (late 1st)
5. Rawle Alkins, another 6'4 wide body 225lbs with 6'9 wingspan. Physical on ball defender who needs to play better team defense. (late 1st early 2nd)
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Looking at the Cs draft history since 2014 on picks higher then 40 DA seems to hold to the following perimeters
1. +4 wingspan to height
2. projects as high level individual defender
3. high level athletic profile for position
4. little regard for 3pt shooting
Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart, Yabu, Mickey, Zizic and Semi (slightly less then +4 but close) all fall under these parameters. Smart, Yabu and Zizics athletic profile is high end based on positional strength.
The only outliers since 14 are Hunter and Young. Both had the + length but not the other traits. Both represents DAs failed attempts to draft a league ready shooter.
Looking at this draft I have a few prospects who hit on all of parameters who I think could be good fits on the Cs.
1. Zhaire Smith, smaller wing who is an elite NBA athlete. Reports are that he has around a 6'11 wingspan. Skill set is more of a role player at this point but ceiling is super high. (likely late lottery pick)
Troy Brown, 6'7 210lb 6'11 wingspan secondary ball handling wing. He was the ESPN 15th ranked recruit in his class. Had a productive Fresh year but lack of outside shot might make him slip (likely goes 14-20)
3. Josh Okogie, 6'4 wide body 215lb wing with an immense 7' wingspan. Has potential as a shooter and is great at getting to the rim and drawing fouls. On D he is great over picks and creates problems for opponents with length. My draft sleeper (late 1st)
4. De'Anthony Melton, built similar to Rozier he is a combo guard who is limited on offense but potentially and elite level perimeter defender in the Beverely mold (late 1st)
5. Rawle Alkins, another 6'4 wide body 225lbs with 6'9 wingspan. Physical on ball defender who needs to play better team defense. (late 1st early 2nd)
Except that Tatum was in no way regarded as fitting #2 or #3 in that profile. Defense was a major concern for him going into the draft, and even now he's more regarded as a guy who fits well into a switching system then a guy who is a high level individual defender. And athleticism was another concern, going into the draft he was not regarded as a high level athlete, and while he's better than most thought hes no a great athlete for a SF. With Tatum it was all about the scoring skill.
This is a direct quote pulled from an SI article about the Tatum pick.
"Weaknesses: Although Tatum’s skill set is impressive, he’s not an athlete of the highest tier, which makes it tougher to draw a direct through-line to NBA success. Tatum can fall in love with his mid-range shot at times and occasionally will take a tough look when he doesn’t need to. He’s developing as a passer but isn’t a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and if he doesn’t work on defense, it’s hard to see how he’ll impact the game when he isn’t shooting the ball. Tatum will have to expand his game or risk being branded a one-dimensional scoring specialist."
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Double post
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It doesn't matter how pundits and draft reports regarded Tatum's athleticism or defensive ability, Ainge clearly thought very highly of his skill set.
He's clearly a much better athlete than he was expected to be, and his defense has been exceptional, considering he's a rookie. Ainge saw that in him or else he wouldn't have targeted him as he did. The countless highlight reel plays Tatum has given us this year are a testament to how underrated he was as an athlete.
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It doesn't matter how pundits and draft reports regarded Tatum's athleticism or defensive ability, Ainge clearly thought very highly of his skill set.
He's clearly a much better athlete than he was expected to be, and his defense has been exceptional, considering he's a rookie. Ainge saw that in him or else he wouldn't have targeted him as he did. The countless highlight reel plays Tatum has given us this year are a testament to how underrated he was as an athlete.
I would also add that there are different types of high level athletes. Yabu and Semi are both high level athlete given the way they can move with such a large frames. Tatum isn't as explosive a wing as Jaylen but he has extremely quick feet for being 6'8" +.
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And this is why Danny Ainge doesn't draft based on SI scouting reports. Whatever weaknesses Tatum had, he fixed them really well and/or the weaknesses were overblown by the scouts who just love to harp on the negatives. 43% 3 point shooting as a ROOKIE are you kidding me?
NBA Rookie 3 point accuracy:
Reggie Miller 35.5%
Ray Allen 39.3%
Larry Bird 40.6%
Klay Thompson 41.4%
Jayson Tatum 43.4%
Stephen Curry 43.7%
Tatum keeps some really, really ELITE company!
This is a direct quote pulled from an SI article about the Tatum pick.
"Weaknesses: Although Tatum’s skill set is impressive, he’s not an athlete of the highest tier, which makes it tougher to draw a direct through-line to NBA success. Tatum can fall in love with his mid-range shot at times and occasionally will take a tough look when he doesn’t need to. He’s developing as a passer but isn’t a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and if he doesn’t work on defense, it’s hard to see how he’ll impact the game when he isn’t shooting the ball. Tatum will have to expand his game or risk being branded a one-dimensional scoring specialist."