Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year

[nickagneta]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

[Big333223]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

[Muzzy66]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

[keevsnick]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.

[SHAQATTACK]

next MJ

[slamtheking]

 Trying to get a feel how much we have to pay JB if we do indeed keep him. We better. Would hate to lose Brown at this young age.

I think Danny lets Jaylen see what he's worth on the market for 2 reasons:
1) both Danny and Jaylen get to see how he's valued around the league and Danny only pays the going rate instead of overpaying (assumption that some desperate team doesn't throw ridiculous money at him but I think Danny still pays Jaylen anyway)
2) Danny gets to wait to see how the uproar with China impacts the salary cap before committing to a big salary as well as seeing how Jaylen improves this year.

that said, I think Jaylen will avg about 17.5 its with 5 rbs and 2 assts and 1.5 steals.   There's no Kyrie, Al, Morris or Rozier to feed on offense.  Kemba seems to be a PG that's ok with giving up some shots to get teammates involved.  Kanter won't be a focal point of offense - more of a scorer off offensive rebounds.  The only newcomer that looks like a real scorer is Edwards.  In light of this roster, Jaylen's going to be looked to score more.  There should be plenty of scoring opportunities to be split between the top 4 scorers on the roster: Kemba, Hayward, Brown and Tatum.

[PhoSita]

Brown has the ability to be as good a defender as Smart. He already did it in one season.

I don't think Jaylen has ever come close to making the defensive impact that Smart does.

[Muzzy66]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.

Tatum has more moves in the post - Brown is physically stronger but his post game mosly just depends on trying to overpower a weaker player and force his shot up.  I've yet to see much in the way of actual post moves - Tatum had a plethora of them even when he was in college. 

Brown  takes a higher percentage of his shots at the rim because he's just not that great from anywhere else.  His midrange game is very limited and his perimeter game is mostly limited to open catch and shoot threes.  So naturally his percentage of shots at the rim will be higher given that it's always been is greatest strength on offense.  By comparison Tatum can score from any where - he's got an excellent midrange game and is a far better outside shooter, he's less restricted to having to score most of his points at the basket.

Look at their shooting percentages though - Brown shot 66% on FG inside 3" and Tatum shot 68%.  Brown got to the line at a higher rate then Tatum last year (25% FTR vs 22% FTR) however Tatum in his rookie year got to the line at a higher rate (31%) then Brown ever has over his first three seasons.

Jaylen has no advanced dribble moves - at least none that I've seen over the past 2-3 years.  Tatum does, and routinely uses his ball handling skills and footwork to create the space to either get to the basket or get off his jumper.  Brown generally is limited to straight drives to the basket, which is one of the key reasons why he's less capable of creating his own shot - he needs to see an open lane or receive an open pass for him to really make something of it. 

As for defense, Tatum is without a doubt the better defender - just look at least seasons' stats for both players:

Brown:
Steals: 0.9
Blocks: 0.4
Def Rating: 109
DBPM: -0.6
DRPM: + 0.1 (NBA Rank: 242)
Def Win Shares:0.098 (Team rank: 6th)

Tatum:
Steals: 1.1
Blocks: 0.7
Def Rating: 107
DBPM: 0.6
DRPM: +1.25 (NBA Rank: 82)
Def Win Shares: 0.123 (Team rank: 2)

In his rookie year Tatum actually ranked 7th in the entire league in defensive win shares.  Last season he was a better defensive player then Jaylen Brown by every possible measure I can find, and it was just clear from watching the two that Tatum played more consistent on the defense end while also being more versatile defensively due to his combination of length and quickness. 

Tatum also had a higher assist rate (10% vs 7.7%) and a lower turnover rate (9.7% vs 10.1%).

His rebound rate is also much higher (10.4% vs 8.7%).

If you calculate their pure offensive efficiency (points per FGA) for their careers Tatum also beats Brown there (1.26 vs 1.23).

I won't go so far as to say that Tatum is a better player in every way, but he's definitely better then Brown in the vast Majority of categories  and that's despite the fact that he is a year younger and has a year less NBA experience. 

[gouki88]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.

Tatum has more moves in the post - Brown is physically stronger but his post game mosly just depends on trying to overpower a weaker player and force his shot up.  I've yet to see much in the way of actual post moves - Tatum had a plethora of them even when he was in college. 

Brown  takes a higher percentage of his shots at the rim because he's just not that great from anywhere else.  His midrange game is very limited and his perimeter game is mostly limited to open catch and shoot threes.  So naturally his percentage of shots at the rim will be higher given that it's always been is greatest strength on offense.  By comparison Tatum can score from any where - he's got an excellent midrange game and is a far better outside shooter, he's less restricted to having to score most of his points at the basket.

Jaylen has no advanced dribble moves - at least none that I've seen over the past 2-3 years.  Tatum does, and routinely uses his ball handling skills and footwork to create the space to either get to the basket or get off his jumper.  Brown generally is limited to straight drives to the basket, which is one of the key reasons why he's less capable of creating his own shot - he needs to see an open lane or receive an open pass for him to really make something of it. 

As for defense, Tatum is without a doubt the better defender - just look at least seasons' stats for both players:

Brown:
Steals: 0.9
Blocks: 0.4
Def Rating: 109
DBPM: -0.6
DRPM: + 0.1 (NBA Rank: 242)
Def Win Shares:0.098 (Team rank: 6th)

Tatum:
Steals: 1.1
Blocks: 0.7
Def Rating: 107
DBPM: 0.6
DRPM: +1.25 (NBA Rank: 82)
Def Win Shares: 0.123 (Team rank: 2)

In his rookie year Tatum actually ranked 7th in the entire league in defensive win shares.  Last season he was a better defensive player then Jaylen Brown by every possible measure I can find, and it was just clear from watching the two that Tatum played more consistent on the defense end while also being more versatile defensively due to his combination of length and quickness.

Using those numbers is really not the way to go to try and paint Tatum as the better defender. Was Tatum, as a rookie, better at defence than Smart? Because those numbers would suggest that he had been.

[Muzzy66]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.

Tatum has more moves in the post - Brown is physically stronger but his post game mosly just depends on trying to overpower a weaker player and force his shot up.  I've yet to see much in the way of actual post moves - Tatum had a plethora of them even when he was in college. 

Brown  takes a higher percentage of his shots at the rim because he's just not that great from anywhere else.  His midrange game is very limited and his perimeter game is mostly limited to open catch and shoot threes.  So naturally his percentage of shots at the rim will be higher given that it's always been is greatest strength on offense.  By comparison Tatum can score from any where - he's got an excellent midrange game and is a far better outside shooter, he's less restricted to having to score most of his points at the basket.

Jaylen has no advanced dribble moves - at least none that I've seen over the past 2-3 years.  Tatum does, and routinely uses his ball handling skills and footwork to create the space to either get to the basket or get off his jumper.  Brown generally is limited to straight drives to the basket, which is one of the key reasons why he's less capable of creating his own shot - he needs to see an open lane or receive an open pass for him to really make something of it. 

As for defense, Tatum is without a doubt the better defender - just look at least seasons' stats for both players:

Brown:
Steals: 0.9
Blocks: 0.4
Def Rating: 109
DBPM: -0.6
DRPM: + 0.1 (NBA Rank: 242)
Def Win Shares:0.098 (Team rank: 6th)

Tatum:
Steals: 1.1
Blocks: 0.7
Def Rating: 107
DBPM: 0.6
DRPM: +1.25 (NBA Rank: 82)
Def Win Shares: 0.123 (Team rank: 2)

In his rookie year Tatum actually ranked 7th in the entire league in defensive win shares.  Last season he was a better defensive player then Jaylen Brown by every possible measure I can find, and it was just clear from watching the two that Tatum played more consistent on the defense end while also being more versatile defensively due to his combination of length and quickness.

Using those numbers is really not the way to go to try and paint Tatum as the better defender. Was Tatum, as a rookie, better at defence than Smart? Because those numbers would suggest that he had been.

Ok then. 

If providing objective facts / statistics is not the right way to try to determine who was the better defender, what unbiased / objective method would you prefer to use? 

Even looking at them subjectively using the "eye test" Jaylen Brown's defense last season was all over the place.  He had stretches where his defense was good, but he also has long stretches were his defense was terrible.  In fact for a few months he was consistently ranked near the bottom of the team in every advanced defensive stat.  Tatum on the other hand was consistently solid, and he played above average defense through the season from start to finish.  Don't underestimate the importance of consistency - it counts for a lot. 

As for Tatum being better the Smart his first year defensively - in terms of sheer defensive impact, possibly.  He was very good defensively his first year, and from what I recall that was actually one of Smart's weaker defensive seasons.  People underestimate the value of Tatum's versatility - having a guy with the physical gifts to be able to defend 4 positions at a high level is extremely valuable.  There aren't that many guys in the league who can do that.  Tatum can switch on almost anybody (from 1-4) defensively and hold his own.  Can probably even switch on to some smaller 5's.  Smart can guard 1-3  and occasionally switch on to some of the smaller 4's.

Tatum still has some learning to do, but he's already a consistently good defender.  Brown has shown flashes of excellent defense among flashes of horribly mediocre defense. If he can keep it up more consistently he could be really good on that end, but he's yet to show that.

Perhaps we should just agree to disagree and we'll see what the season brings.

[gouki88]

I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around

It's real simple, he outplays Hayward and Tatum and so the team goes to him as a 2nd option instead of Hayward or Tatum.

This assumption that Tatum or Hayward have to be the #2 scoring option or that
Tatum is definitely breaking out this year and deserves his shots or the Hayward will definitely return to form and eat up lots more shots could be a very wrong assumption.

As I said, I think Jaylen will grab control of more offense because he will be taking a major step forward in his development. If he doesn't do this then you are probably right. I just think this is the year Jaylen shines and by outshining others will get the shots he needs to score that much.

I can say that I'm not talking in definites. But Tatum is and has always been a much more skilled offensive player. It feels very unlikely that Brown would leapfrog him for shots. In the preseason, Tatum took 12.7 shots per game, Jaylen took 7. That's preseason but it is a continuation of a trend. What you're suggesting isn't impossible but it would be coming out of nowhere.

As for Hayward, his superior ballhandling and reputation as a playmaker means he will likely have the ball in his hands much more than Jaylen and will thus have more scoring opportunities.

I hope Jaylen gets more aggressive going to the rim and getting to the line. I hope he goes hard at becoming a scorer the C's can depend on and go-to. But he was also 6th on the team in scoring last year and has a lot of guys in front of him. I see him as a 4th option on this team, optimistically the 3rd option. But I think it's more likely he's a 5th option than a 4th.

I tend to agree.

There is a reason why Tatum has been getting the extra touches despite being younger and less experienced the Brown - he's simply a far more advanced offensive player. 

Brown can make open threes with reasonable consistency and is strong in transition and going to the basket, but that's really about the limit of his offensive game thus far.  There's a turnaround midrange jumper that I've seen him make from time to time - if he can start making that shot with consistency it would help a lot.  He could also benefit by becoming a more potent scorer in the post, where he could potentially take advantage of his strength and athleticism.  Those are two areas he might have the ability to improve his game. 

His free throw shooting has been around the same level for 3 years now so thats not likely to improve. 

The problem is that Tatum is just a better player in so many areas.  He's a better shooter, he's a better post scorer, more skilled at driving and finishing in traffic, better free throw shooter, better ball handler, and he's also a more consistent defensive player and a stronger rebounder.    There isn't really a lot that Brown does that Tatum doesn't, and that I think is what's ultimately going to hold Brown back.

You can kinda say the same for Hayward.  What is there that Brown does that a healthy Hayward doesn't?  Because Hayward is the best playmaker and ball handler of the three by a mile, he rebounds about as well as brown does, is probably about on par defensively (albeit more consistent) and is a better shot maker and shot creator. 

I do really hope Brown can come out stronger this year and show he's make big strides. I saw some brief flashes if progress in USA and Preseason - but unfortunately i didn't see enough.  The first preseason game Jaylen Brown was pretty much non-existent, in the USA games he was up and down.  I would like to see some more consistency from him SOMEWHERE.   Either more consistent offensive production or more consistent defense.  He's very up and down on both ends thus far.

Better shooter yes. Better low post scorer is very debatable, Jaylen has a pretty nice low post turn around. I'd say Jaylen is clearly better at getting to the rim in half court and transition (he takes a much higher % of his shots at the rim). Tatum is a better free throw shooter. I think some of Jaylen's advanced dribble moves are on par with Tatums and he has fewer turnovers per 36 minutes. Jaylen is clearly the better defender. I think Tatum is better overall no question, but its not as simple as your analysis makes it.

Tatum has more moves in the post - Brown is physically stronger but his post game mosly just depends on trying to overpower a weaker player and force his shot up.  I've yet to see much in the way of actual post moves - Tatum had a plethora of them even when he was in college. 

Brown  takes a higher percentage of his shots at the rim because he's just not that great from anywhere else.  His midrange game is very limited and his perimeter game is mostly limited to open catch and shoot threes.  So naturally his percentage of shots at the rim will be higher given that it's always been is greatest strength on offense.  By comparison Tatum can score from any where - he's got an excellent midrange game and is a far better outside shooter, he's less restricted to having to score most of his points at the basket.

Jaylen has no advanced dribble moves - at least none that I've seen over the past 2-3 years.  Tatum does, and routinely uses his ball handling skills and footwork to create the space to either get to the basket or get off his jumper.  Brown generally is limited to straight drives to the basket, which is one of the key reasons why he's less capable of creating his own shot - he needs to see an open lane or receive an open pass for him to really make something of it. 

As for defense, Tatum is without a doubt the better defender - just look at least seasons' stats for both players:

Brown:
Steals: 0.9
Blocks: 0.4
Def Rating: 109
DBPM: -0.6
DRPM: + 0.1 (NBA Rank: 242)
Def Win Shares:0.098 (Team rank: 6th)

Tatum:
Steals: 1.1
Blocks: 0.7
Def Rating: 107
DBPM: 0.6
DRPM: +1.25 (NBA Rank: 82)
Def Win Shares: 0.123 (Team rank: 2)

In his rookie year Tatum actually ranked 7th in the entire league in defensive win shares.  Last season he was a better defensive player then Jaylen Brown by every possible measure I can find, and it was just clear from watching the two that Tatum played more consistent on the defense end while also being more versatile defensively due to his combination of length and quickness.

Using those numbers is really not the way to go to try and paint Tatum as the better defender. Was Tatum, as a rookie, better at defence than Smart? Because those numbers would suggest that he had been.

Ok then. 

If providing objective facts / statistics is not the right way to try to determine who was the better defender, what unbiased / objective method would you prefer to use? 

Even looking at them subjectively using the "eye test" Jaylen Brown's defense last season was all over the place.  He had stretches where his defense was good, but he also has long stretches were his defense was terrible.  In fact for a few months he was consistently ranked near the bottom of the team in every advanced defensive stat.  Tatum on the other hand was consistently solid, and he played above average defense through the season from start to finish.  Don't underestimate the importance of consistency - it counts for a lot. 

As for Tatum being better the Smart his first year defensively - in terms of sheer defensive impact, possibly.  He was very good defensively his first year, and from what I recall that was actually one of Smart's weaker defensive seasons.  People underestimate the value of Tatum's versatility - having a guy with the physical gifts to be able to defend 4 positions at a high level is extremely valuable.  There aren't that many guys in the league who can do that.  Tatum can switch on almost anybody (from 1-4) defensively and hold his own.  Can probably even switch on to some smaller 5's.  Smart can guard 1-3  and occasionally switch on to some of the smaller 4's.

Tatum still has some learning to do, but he's already a consistently good defender.  Brown has shown flashes of excellent defense among flashes of horribly mediocre defense. If he can keep it up more consistently he could be really good on that end, but he's yet to show that.

You're not providing any context for the statistics, or offering any insight into what the statistics actually mean though. You can't just drop some numbers that aren't indicative of a consensus opinion without expecting some backlash.

I don't know how you can talk about how Jaylen's defence was all over the place last season, then not mention Tatum's defence. Which was just, quite frankly, consistently bad over the majority of the season. He was losing track of his man routinely, was gambling on steals and repeatedly made poor reads. He usually had elite defensive big-men in Al and Baynes to cover for him, but this wasn't always enough.

Tatum can not switch on most 1-4's, and absolutely no 5's. That's straight up nonsense. Never has he been able to do that. He is not a high level defender. In his rookie year he was solid, often reliably good. In his second year he was below average for the most part.