I thought of posting this within another thread but it kept growing and I thought I'd start one to focus on this thought, I hope that is ok.
There has been lots of talk recently and Kyrie's future, the lure of Durant, do we / don't we trade for Davis with / without Kyrie, can we get all 3??
I think it's highly unlikely that all three end up here. There would be so many dominoes that would need to fall in one summer, I don't think even Ainge is contemplating it.
I do think that amongst this there is some interesting deception going on amongst all this.
Firstly lets assume that the rumours about KD are true and he intends to leave the Warriors in the summer. His intent is to build a legacy at his own franchise where it is deemed his team. Basically anywhere except GS and the Lakers....
It's also very clear that KD and Irving have a good relationship and are excited about the prospect of playing on the same team.
The more I read and think about it the more I conclude that they are aiming to play on the same team next year. There are only a handful of teams where this can happen; Boston, New York, Brooklyn and LA Clippers. It seems Boston (Kyrie is there, there are routes to Durant) and New York (Free agency, seem to be more desirable for the two of them) are the forerunners here so let's focus on them.
As information comes out, it starts to make me think that their plan is to attempt to team up in Boston and fall back on New York if that doesn't work. Let me explain why...
For Golden State, it becomes clear Durant is leaving. He's made a decision, its done. As a clear minded GM, Bob Myers is thinking about where to go now. When approached with the possibility of a Durant opt in and trade to Boston deal, vs New York in free agency, I think he considers it carefully. The package must be based around Hayward for salary purposes, which is already a good haul in my eyes given they open no cap space and potentially lose Thompson too. But there must be more from the Celtics, something they can use in case they blow it up down the road. So it's likely the Memphis pick, #14 or another good pick would be included. There may also be the inclusion of someone like Robert Williams. I don't think it goes as far as including Brown or Tatum, though I think it is justifiable. (side question: would you include them?)
Should GS-Boston not work out a deal, I think that is the point that Durant and Irving head to New York. New York only require a few million extra in cap space to sign both to a max deal, easily achieved by doing a sign and trade for Irving, sending Ntilikina or Smith Jr to us in return for example. This is also what gives Golden State leverage in talks with us, because we lose Irving if the talks don't work.
For Boston, this could leave us with a team including Irving, Durant, Horford and a young trio of Smart, Tatum and/or Brown. In that scenario there is certainly the ability to trade for Davis but would you want to? Horford is likely a better fit with his low usage and passing, along with the certainty of contract situation. And I think we've learned that a clearer hierarchy of talent is needed, not a 1a/b/c.
So is Davis the smokescreen Ainge is using to divert attention from Durant? We have certainly seen it before with Paul George and Jimmy Butler before trading for Irving. It also fits because we have pursued an interest in Durant for so long, Ainge clearly rates him at the top of the list. It's definitely a better outcome than the trades for Davis I have seen, and you have a clear best player on the roster with Durant.
I think Danny is the best at pushing things over the line. If Myers is willing to talk, which he should be, then we steal a march on the NBA and enter next season as the favourites for a title with Irving and Durant leading the way. I think Davis ends up going to the Lakers to team up with Lebron and New York ends up in a pit of misery once again.
How do you rate the soundness of this argument? And what chances do you give it of becoming true?
