CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: DefenseWinsChamps on May 24, 2018, 10:36:53 AM
-
I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.
But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.
Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.
Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.
The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.
The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.
Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.
The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.
On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.
The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.
I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.
That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.
-
I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with out youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.
But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.
Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.
Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.
The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.
The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.
Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.
The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.
On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.
The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.
I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.
That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.
TP.
I’m hoping the window is open at least for several years, but you are so right that there are no guarantees. With a little luck this could actually be our year.
-
Things definitely can go wrong and unravel, that's why I was so devastated when Hayward went down.
I thought this year the team would have a dark horse chance at making and even winning the Finals like the Mavs team in 2011. The fact that they're basically in the position I was optimistic they'd be in with Hayward/Kyrie is amazing.
-
Things definitely can go wrong and unravel, that's why I was so devastated when Hayward went down.
I thought this year the team would have a dark horse chance at making and even winning the Finals like the Mavs team in 2011. The fact that they're basically in the position I was optimistic they'd be in with Hayward/Kyrie is amazing.
yep
-
good points
seize it when its here
you never know
what an amazing run this would be. would have to be the most unexpected championship that I can remember in recent NBA history.
-
I mean, this is the kind of post you write after we won something. At this point I'm just enjoying the ride, not worrying about any window.
-
I mean, this is the kind of post you write after we won something. At this point I'm just enjoying the ride, not worrying about any window.
The whole point is that we should appreciate this run, not counting it as "gravy," but realizing that it is difficult to get to this point.
Rather than taking it for granted this year, let's enjoy it.
-
One year at a time. Hopefully We can sign Smart to a one big year deal. Win it and use our 3 picks coming 2019 to replace Rozier and Smart. All is good as long as Tatum is healthy.
-
Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.
I may be in the minority here but if this current core can win 2 champiosnhips in the next 4-5 years that would be a massive success.
-
To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.
-
I understand and agree with your underlying point.
But I don't think this scenario is necessarily as relevant to the other scenarios you bring up, as we have a really good mix of vets and youth that make us unique, along with other factors.
We have the seasoned vets on the backside of their career (Horford, Baynes), the stars entering their prime (Kyrie, Hayward), the high-end role player vets in or approaching their prime (Morris, Smart, Rozier), and the stars in the making (Brown, Tatum).
Add on top of this a top-5 coach in the league, a top-5 GM in the league, a world-class organization and ownership, and a bevy of draft picks beyond our own, including one that has top-3 potential and another one that will almost certainly be a lottery pick.
I don't think the league has seen this type of group before that has a legitimate chance of being a serious contender for the next 10-12 years.
-
To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.
I agree with this as well. Next year looks like our shot. Gotta keep a great bench in place. Rozier will be needed at some point next year.
-
8-12 might be a little overly ambitious (maybe not) but certainly 5 to 8 years.
A couple of years ago, I said that if this organization played its cards right with the BKN picks & the cap space, they could be one of those "have your cake & eat it too teams" meaning they could be a contender now & in the future. They've nailed just about everything so far. Conference Finals appearance last season & again this year with a chance to go to the Finals. The next challenge (outside of injuries) is going to be cap management & the periphery roster (role players & bench) decisions.
It's actually happening now which is pretty awesome. So far, Danny & the organization has played this beautifully.
-
To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.
I agree for next year, that a trade shouldn't be done if it would lessen the talent on the team.
However, I'm not talking about next year.
-
T Roz gets it:
"'We have a special opportunity,' Rozier said. 'A lot of the guys, we may never get this opportunity again. We have to understand that and come out and fight, and compete like hell.'”
-
T Roz gets it:
"'We have a special opportunity,' Rozier said. 'A lot of the guys, we may never get this opportunity again. We have to understand that and come out and fight, and compete like hell.'”
Since there is a chance (however big or small) that Rozier might be playing for a team like the Magic next year, this is especially true for him. :)
-
To have sustained greatness you need one of your superstars (Tom Brady, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan) agree to below market deal.
Otherwise you can forget it. Numbers don’t work.
-
I'm appreciating and enjoying the heck out of this run... But I won't be disappointed if we don't win it all.
Actually no matter what happens now I won't be devastated, but that doesn't mean I'm not appreciating it.
-
Not to mention, the league is only getting more and more talented each year. Guys stay good for a long time. There's more good intelligence on how to win. Everything is getting more competitive, in my opinion, if not steadily than as a net gain over time.
-
To have sustained greatness you need one of your superstars (Tom Brady, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan) agree to below market deal.
Otherwise you can forget it. Numbers don’t work.
What if you consistently are able to pick top players? Danny has proven (and may continue to prove) his ability to acquire top picks. He traded Pierce and KG. What makes us think he won't trade Tatum, Kyrie, and Jaylen?
Danny Ainge has the assets to keep this window open for as long as he wants.
-
I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.
But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.
Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.
Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.
The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.
The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.
Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.
The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.
On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.
The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.
I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.
That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.
You must be fun at parties.
-
I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.
But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.
Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.
Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.
The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.
The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.
Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.
The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.
On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.
The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.
I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.
That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.
You must be fun at parties.
That made me laugh.
Never get too high. Never get too low.
-
Yup, you never know how long you can keep things together. Now Ainge has done a great job putting together a team that can compete now and in the future, but you're correct in that teams generally overestimate their windows. This is especially true in days of free agency but there have always been teams that looked like they had great potential and could never get over the top:
- Rockets in the 1980's
- Magic in the 1990's
- Thunder in the 2010's
-
Chris Paul hamstring pull.
Iggy injury.
Thompson injury.
Curry doesn't look right.
Lebron exhausted.
-
A lot of these teams were cut short due to their star player(s) leaving.
The Spurs would have never thought they had a 15-year window, but Duncan was an amazing player and they are a finely ran team.
The Heat had LeBron leave and Bosh become medically inactive. Had that team stayed intact I’m sure they would have made a few more Finals. Thunder got beat by letting Harden go, then seeing Durant walk.
Celtics in 2007 were considered to have a three year window. They came so close 5 seasons later, and if not for injuries would have surely made/won more than they did.
The difference is a GM who understands the cap and continually draft well. Very, very rarely do you see a quality team draft as high as we did the last few years. That can set us up for a sustained run. As the young guys need to get paid, the vets can take less on new contracts.
I think Rozier will be an issue next season and I can see him being delt. I trust Ainge will do the right thing. Smart I feel will be ravines to a modest contract and Baynes should be retained as he’s been very good on Embiid and anchors our defense overall. Rozier is obviously a big piece to our puzzle now but he’s the guy that could possibly get a contract starting 6-7x what he’s going to make next season.
But the rest of the team I believe can be kept together for many years. Hopefully we get good value for Rozier if Ainge HAS to trade him.