CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Big333223 on October 23, 2018, 09:51:27 AM
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Last season, the Celtics top four offensive options (Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Brown) had eFG%'s of .568, .538, .553, and .540. Through four games this season, that quartet is shooting .420, .475, .513, and .402.
Al Horford is the only one even in the neighborhood of where he shot last year and he's taking the fewest shot in the starting lineup.
Gordon Hayward has an adequate .500 eFG% but he's also taken 3 free throws in 3 games, a big indicator he's not back yet. Horford and Hayward's eFG% marks are still below the worst of the top four last season.
These giant dips in shooting percentages, coupled with the number of open everyone's missing right now, makes me think they'll be fine. They have chemistry issues to balance but sometimes it really is just about putting the ball in the basket. I believe that will start happening again soon.
It just sucks when that cold streak hits in the beginning of the year.
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Yeah, shooting percentages will regress to the mean, especially when our execution gets crisper. Last night was actually a step up in terms of attempted ball movement, but the passes and catches were very sloppy and even when we got the open shot it didn't fall. Especially from 3:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqMpHHpXgAA___u.jpg)
25 open misses!
Part of the bigger issue is that Kyrie and Hayward both look tentative/rusty and that seems to have affected other players. The numbers will catch up but it shows we have a long ways to go as a team.
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Last season, the Celtics top four offensive options (Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, Brown) had eFG%'s of .568, .538, .553, and .540. Through four games this season, that quartet is shooting .420, .475, .513, and .402.
Al Horford is the only one even in the neighborhood of where he shot last year and he's taking the fewest shot in the starting lineup.
Gordon Hayward has an adequate .500 eFG% but he's also taken 3 free throws in 3 games, a big indicator he's not back yet. Horford and Hayward's eFG% marks are still below the worst of the top four last season.
These giant dips in shooting percentages, coupled with the number of open everyone's missing right now, makes me think they'll be fine. They have chemistry issues to balance but sometimes it really is just about putting the ball in the basket. I believe that will start happening again soon.
It just sucks when that cold streak hits in the beginning of the year.
There's no doubt that we'll be fine offensively. A whole team doesn't just forget how to shoot the ball.
If you look at it this would be the final game of the preseason in past years so some of our guys are still warming up and finding chemistry. We have Hayward and Kyrie coming back off of season ending injuries and they are just starting to come back to life. We'll be killing it but it may take a few more games to get all cylinders firing.
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They be fine..its October!! Now if its January i be worried..but this team got to get to know one another..remember Hayward is really "new" to this team..
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Why do we need to wait for them to figure it out?
Raptors in slimier situation, 2 new guys in the starting five, one who hasn't played last year and they look great.
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I’m curious about this. Logic and hope tell me we’ll still win 55 - 60 games.
But, there’s at least some precedent for teams struggling across an entire season when integrating new players. Lebron’s first year with the Heat is the best example, but there’s also the Lakers with Malone, the Lakers with D12, etc.
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I’m curious about this. Logic and hope tell me we’ll still win 55 - 60 games.
But, there’s at least some precedent for teams struggling across an entire season when integrating new players. Lebron’s first year with the Heat is the best example, but there’s also the Lakers with Malone, the Lakers with D12, etc.
My point was that whatever chemistry issues there are, the real problem has been that the team is just missing an egregious number of open shots or shots they've made in the past and that's something that is unlikely to continue to this degree.
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Well, it is still early in the season, the team is still adapting to each other with shortened preparation period… However, it is going to take some more time and more time together. It's going to be tough because there is no more time for workouts, so I expect more of these NY, Orl type of games. The main thing that bothers me is this 5:0 zone offense that we play, when all players stand on the three point line and look at each other and wait for someone else to make something. The ball is moving, but you can't make quality plays without players working without the ball. No inside presence, no aggression towards the rim, and what you get? Almost two L’s and approx. 20 free throws in two games… Hope they get themselves together and play some real Celtics game. Let go Celtics!
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i agree with many of the positive points above. this team's defense is fine so far, and the offense will come around.
My takes from last night's game - Horford almost never takes rushed or bad threes. He takes them as part of the team's rhythm. Yet, he went 1-7 from 3 point land.
Tatum was 0-5 from 3 and at least two of those were back-to-back wide open looks in the same possession.
On another note, Kyrie attacked the rim more frequently in the second half but still had 0 FTA, despite being knocked down a number of times.
The Celtics were doing the right things, which is why CBS praised the ball movement last night - the results will come.
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I’m curious about this. Logic and hope tell me we’ll still win 55 - 60 games.
But, there’s at least some precedent for teams struggling across an entire season when integrating new players. Lebron’s first year with the Heat is the best example, but there’s also the Lakers with Malone, the Lakers with D12, etc.
My point was that whatever chemistry issues there are, the real problem has been that the team is just missing an egregious number of open shots or shots they've made in the past and that's something that is unlikely to continue to this degree.
I think it’s more than “the shots aren’t falling”. Guys look lost and tentative. I expect that to eventually get worked out. But, sometimes those transitions take longer than expected.
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Why do we need to wait for them to figure it out?
Raptors in slimier situation, 2 new guys in the starting five, one who hasn't played last year and they look great.
The Raptors add the best or second best two way player in the league to a team that won the east last year.
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I’m curious about this. Logic and hope tell me we’ll still win 55 - 60 games.
But, there’s at least some precedent for teams struggling across an entire season when integrating new players. Lebron’s first year with the Heat is the best example, but there’s also the Lakers with Malone, the Lakers with D12, etc.
That first year for the Heat, they still won 58 games and made it to the Finals. The Lakers had all sorts of locker room problems and Steve Nash was a formality from retirement. If this team is healthy, I think they get it together sooner than later.
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Nope, I'm pretty sure that the first four games are representative of what we will see throughout the year.
Probably best to start the rebuild now. Trade Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward and Brown for whatever draft picks we can get for them now. Maybe pick up a few good young players and some great draft picks. Tank the season and we could end up with the #1 AND the #2 pick.
Mike
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Why do we need to wait for them to figure it out?
Raptors in slimier situation, 2 new guys in the starting five, one who hasn't played last year and they look great.
I addressed this in an earlier post. Toronto has very easily defined roles. Kawhi and Lowry are the clear high usage players. They are expected to be assertive in everything they do on the offensive end. Green is a spot up 3 point shooter. Ibaka pops out to the 3 point line on screens and hits mid-range jumpers. Valanciunas takes advantage of mistmatches/switches in the post and tries to eat up offensive rebounds.
It's fair to say that none the Raptors starters need to adjust their style of play. The limitations of Ibaka and Green prevent them from feeling like they need to do more on the offensive end of the floor. It's no surprise that they are more comfortable and confident than the Celtics.
The Celtics are in a completely different position. Kyrie and Hayward have both been accustomed to lots of P&R usage throughout their career. Through 4 games Kyrie is at the lowest usage rate of his career and Gordon is at the lowest since his 2nd season. Let's also not forget that both are working back from injury.
As for Jaylen, he easily looks the most hesitant in terms of decision making.
Tatum is the one exception among the starting 5. For the most part he's maintained aggressiveness throughout the game.
Eventually the Celtics will find their groove and this will sort itself out.
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For the record the 2010/2011 Lebron-Wade-Bosh Miami Heat team started the season 10-8. They also had a 5 game losing streak somewhere in the season (I don't know the circumstances of it) and they finished with 58 wins.
Anyway it's just human nature to overreact to things like this. Look at the Pats, every time they start a season 2-2 people are screaming that Brady doesn't have it any more, the dynasty is over etc. etc. etc. Of course that is always completely forgotten when they win the next 6 games.
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I’m curious about this. Logic and hope tell me we’ll still win 55 - 60 games.
But, there’s at least some precedent for teams struggling across an entire season when integrating new players. Lebron’s first year with the Heat is the best example, but there’s also the Lakers with Malone, the Lakers with D12, etc.
My point was that whatever chemistry issues there are, the real problem has been that the team is just missing an egregious number of open shots or shots they've made in the past and that's something that is unlikely to continue to this degree.
I think it’s more than “the shots aren’t falling”. Guys look lost and tentative. I expect that to eventually get worked out. But, sometimes those transitions take longer than expected.
Yeah, I think it's both.
And I think the Lebron-in-Miami thing is particularly apt. Lebron went to the Heat and wanted to share the team with Wade but that team hit its stride in their second season when Lebron finally said, "Screw it, I'm the best player so I'm going to start playing like it."
I weirdly think Kyrie is in a similar spot. It's nice that Kyrie wants to expand his game and his point guard skills but he just isn't a pg in the Bob Cousy/Chris Paul mode. He doesn't have great passing skills and there are other players on the team who do. Kyrie is an elite scorer. At some point I think his best move is to have the realization that Lebron had in Miami and go out and stark wrecking defenses and letting Hayward, Horford, and Smart be the primary offense-runners.
He should really be out there trying to score and make the defense react to him which will then open up for everyone else. He's trying to get others involved first but that might be backwards.
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The Offense (And The Team) Will Be Fine
at least for the reg. season. watch how we get eliminated in the playoffs this year... or just go back and watch how we've been eliminated the last few yrs.
our offensive philosophy and lack of discipline is what's been holding us back... or at least it must be right? 1st we had a collection of players with no talent that in the last few mins. of an elimination gm. just chucked up a bunch of 3's to get back in the game and lost. then we get talent and in the last few mins. of an elimination gm. just chucked up a bunch of 3's to get back in the game and lost.
sounds like an offensive philosophy and lack of discipline problem to me.
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Wow, despite our offensive woes we're #1 in the league in Open and Wide Open FG attempts (#2 in rate for both).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyX23WsAAPRt3.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyWc9WwAIYZv2.jpg)
Seems to confirm we're doing ok at getting the shots we want but very very badly at making them, especially the Open kind.
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Wow, despite our offensive woes we're #1 in the league in Open and Wide Open FG attempts (#2 in rate for both).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyX23WsAAPRt3.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyWc9WwAIYZv2.jpg)
Seems to confirm we're doing ok at getting the shots we want but very very badly at making them, especially the Open kind.
This same thing was happening last season as well. I’m starting to wonder if the C’s get so many open looks because no one really respects our players on that side of the ball. Teams are conceding the long ball instead of cleaner looks near the rim. The C’s get lazy and it starts to play into their hands.
Anywhere to get a stat of which players are taking most of these open looks? If the offense sputters all season CBS deserves heat. I had dreams of top 5 in defensive and offensive efficiency this season. C’s are #1 and #29 currently.
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Wow, despite our offensive woes we're #1 in the league in Open and Wide Open FG attempts (#2 in rate for both).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyX23WsAAPRt3.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyWc9WwAIYZv2.jpg)
Seems to confirm we're doing ok at getting the shots we want but very very badly at making them, especially the Open kind.
Yeah, this is why I'm not worried.
On the other hand, there's an argument to be made that great teams, when the shots aren't falling, are able to manufacture points in other ways like getting to the free throw line or getting more reliable shots at the rim and the C's have been bad in those areas so far.
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Wow, despite our offensive woes we're #1 in the league in Open and Wide Open FG attempts (#2 in rate for both).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyX23WsAAPRt3.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSyWc9WwAIYZv2.jpg)
Seems to confirm we're doing ok at getting the shots we want but very very badly at making them, especially the Open kind.
This same thing was happening last season as well. I’m starting to wonder if the C’s get so many open looks because no one really respects our players on that side of the ball. Teams are conceding the long ball instead of cleaner looks near the rim. The C’s get lazy and it starts to play into their hands.
We're not Philly. Nobody wants to leave any of our starters open from 3. It's possible we're settling but it's kinda hard to describe open 3s as "settling" unless they're from way back or one of our few bad shooters (*cough* Smart *cough*) is chucking too early.
Anywhere to get a stat of which players are taking most of these open looks? If the offense sputters all season CBS deserves heat. I had dreams of top 5 in defensive and offensive efficiency this season. C’s are #1 and #29 currently.
Don't have it but I'm sure it's out there somewhere. NBA.com has incredible sortable stats.