I don't know. Would we move Tatum to PF permanently?
Timelord / Horford
Tatum / Grant
Brown / McDermott
Smart / White
Murray
The big question is, does Murray put us over the top? He's a spotty shooter who has had one very good year.
Would we be better off doing a three-way for Collins?
I voted yes because I think if you can add that kind of talent without giving up a significant rotation piece you have to do it.
That said, I'd rather get into a three-way for Collins. I'd rather stay big then go small and Collins would be the perfect fit.
There are two issues:
Defense
Buying into the role
If we bring in a 3rd star, it will define the team for some time.
If the coaches felt Collins can improve enough on defense, (he's got some talent, but he's pretty average right now) and if he would be happy as a 3rd wheel, then he'd be great, because we would have a longer term solution for replacing Horford.
Signing Collins does still leave the single biggest issue with the team unresolved: running the offense under playoff pressure. That may fix itself if Tatum and Smart improve there and Brown becomes more disciplined too, but that's a pretty big risk.
Murray is ready to fit our defense day one, and he will almost certainly improve the offensive flow dramatically. He'll also probably love the role he would get. Smart could still fit, but I doubt he would respond well to getting exactly the role he wanted all along and then losing it after just one year, where he did come through.
Its nice to stay big, but replacing Horford with an average defender breaks the team's identity. I wouldn't do that unless the coaches really believed in Collins.