I posted this in a different setting about a week ago, but it has some analysis of A/TO ratio that seems relevant here. While I mention here that Brogdon is not some big upgrade to Smart, having BOTH of them is a huge upgrade to our team guard depth:
Smart has individual plays that drive people crazy. People focus on those rather than his composite numbers. Smart’s Assist/TO ratio last year was 2.5. That’s 50th in the league across all positions. It’s tied for 13th-15 best among players I would define as a lead guard or primary ball-handler for their team.
Lead guards better than a 2.5 include: Chris Paul (4.4), Dejounte Murray (4.2), Tyrese Maxey (3.4), Terry Rozier (3.3), Tyrese Haliburton (3.2), Jalen Brunson (3.1), Mike Conley (3.0), Kyle Lowry (2.
, D’Angelo Russell (2.
, Malcolm Brogdon (2.
, Fred VanVleet (2.6), Damian Lillard (2.6). That’s 12 starting lead guards with a better A/TO ratio than Smart.
Lead guards same/worse than 2.5 A/TO ratio:
Ricky Rubio (2.5), Jrue Holiday (2.5), CJ McCollum (2.4), LaMelo Ball (2.3), Kyrie Irving (2.3), Trae Young (2.3), James Harden (2.3), Darius Garland (2.3), Cole Anthony (2.2), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2.2). I stopped at the top 100.
Overall, I think A/TO ratio is a pretty fair indicator of how effectively a guard is distributing the basketball. Smart is basically middle of the pack in terms of his distribution numbers, which seems accurate to me. People act like he’s “not a PG” in terms of getting others involved, which is just not true in comparison to his peers in the league. He is a subpar shooter but one who is capable of creating his own shot at times. He is obviously elite defensively, one of the best, if not the absolute best, lead guard defenders in the league.
I just don’t see an upgrade. Brogdon is not an upgrade. Brunson is not an upgrade. Those guys are a wash at best.
Dejounte Murray or Tyrese Haliburton could certainly be viewed as upgrades. I don’t see that happening for obvious reasons. Those guys are being counted on by their teams to be franchise players. Smart is our 3rd best player and paid like most good teams’ 4th best player. People that have a problem with him need to reevaluate the facts.
Also, for the record, Derrick White’s A/TO is 2.9, and his added distribution abilities are a big reason why I think Brad targeted him as an upgrade over J-Rich since he is a quality secondary playmaker.