Author Topic: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?  (Read 6639 times)

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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2022, 03:58:33 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Tatum isn't sniffing top 15 this season imo. Questionable if he's top 20.

People get mixed up conflating talent / ability with actual production. For a lot of this season Tatum has been bad.  A lot of players who are shorter and less talented than Tatum have been better this year.

People also get mixed up conflating moral failing with lack of production.  Saying Tatum hasn't played well for much of this season is not the same thing as saying it's some kind of character flaw or something. He's just struggled a ton with his jumpshot.

Tatum is taking 21 field goal attempts per game this season and has an effective field goal percentage below 50%. He's averaging fewer than 5 assists per game while averaging 3 turnovers per game.  There's just no way he's anywhere close to having a top 10, let alone top 5, season.

If you think it’s questionable that he’s top 20 then I think you’re starting underrate him.

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2022, 05:13:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Tatum isn't sniffing top 15 this season imo. Questionable if he's top 20.

People get mixed up conflating talent / ability with actual production. For a lot of this season Tatum has been bad.  A lot of players who are shorter and less talented than Tatum have been better this year.

People also get mixed up conflating moral failing with lack of production.  Saying Tatum hasn't played well for much of this season is not the same thing as saying it's some kind of character flaw or something. He's just struggled a ton with his jumpshot.

Tatum is taking 21 field goal attempts per game this season and has an effective field goal percentage below 50%. He's averaging fewer than 5 assists per game while averaging 3 turnovers per game.  There's just no way he's anywhere close to having a top 10, let alone top 5, season.

If you think it’s questionable that he’s top 20 then I think you’re starting underrate him.


again, I'm not talking talent or projecting to the future. not talking about a hypothetical playoff matchup or anything.

just in terms of who has had the best season to this point ... there are a good number of key players on other teams who have been better.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2022, 05:25:02 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Tatum isn't sniffing top 15 this season imo. Questionable if he's top 20.

People get mixed up conflating talent / ability with actual production. For a lot of this season Tatum has been bad.  A lot of players who are shorter and less talented than Tatum have been better this year.

People also get mixed up conflating moral failing with lack of production.  Saying Tatum hasn't played well for much of this season is not the same thing as saying it's some kind of character flaw or something. He's just struggled a ton with his jumpshot.

Tatum is taking 21 field goal attempts per game this season and has an effective field goal percentage below 50%. He's averaging fewer than 5 assists per game while averaging 3 turnovers per game.  There's just no way he's anywhere close to having a top 10, let alone top 5, season.

If you think it’s questionable that he’s top 20 then I think you’re starting underrate him.


again, I'm not talking talent or projecting to the future. not talking about a hypothetical playoff matchup or anything.

just in terms of who has had the best season to this point ... there are a good number of key players on other teams who have been better.
And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season. 
2021 Historical Draft - 5th Pick - Raptors
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2022, 05:46:13 PM »

Offline RJ87

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Tatum isn't sniffing top 15 this season imo. Questionable if he's top 20.

People get mixed up conflating talent / ability with actual production. For a lot of this season Tatum has been bad.  A lot of players who are shorter and less talented than Tatum have been better this year.

People also get mixed up conflating moral failing with lack of production.  Saying Tatum hasn't played well for much of this season is not the same thing as saying it's some kind of character flaw or something. He's just struggled a ton with his jumpshot.

Tatum is taking 21 field goal attempts per game this season and has an effective field goal percentage below 50%. He's averaging fewer than 5 assists per game while averaging 3 turnovers per game.  There's just no way he's anywhere close to having a top 10, let alone top 5, season.

If you think it’s questionable that he’s top 20 then I think you’re starting underrate him.


again, I'm not talking talent or projecting to the future. not talking about a hypothetical playoff matchup or anything.

just in terms of who has had the best season to this point ... there are a good number of key players on other teams who have been better.
And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season.

And for all the gripes about his shooting, he's been markedly more efficient in December and January averaging 46% (in line with his career average) - even with the recent 3 point struggles.
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C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2022, 06:46:37 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season.

counting stats don't impress me much (cue Shania Twain music)

26 points on 21 shots ... meh

8.5 rebounds ... I don't really care

3.9 assists with 3 turnovers ... again, not impressed


this isn't to say that Tatum is trash now or something, just that being a high volume scorer without being particularly efficient or doing a lot of creating for others is not, in my opinion, a very high value role
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2022, 07:10:06 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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We see this every year, and almost about this time.  He needs to do this for a full year first.

I think this is why “growing pains” holds true, even more so this season. He was looking like a borderline top 10 player the last 2 months of the 2021 season. I know people want to see a jump at the start of the season, but Tatum was working out and playing for the US during the summer. Then he’s got a new coach. And he has to become a playmaker.

He’s making the jump mid season. He was frustrating to watch while he was doing it, because he’s not a natural playmaker and he was forcing plays probably out of frustration that when he made passes they didn’t result in points because guys missed.

Some of that was on him not making plays and setting guys up properly and just passing the ball “see, I passed it” and some of it was just not having shooters to pass to.

Then there’s the whole not having the core playing together and missing games. It’s hard to make improvements and be consistent when the guys  on the court are a different group every night.

To me, Tatum’s biggest flaw this season has been consistency. If the team can stay healthy I expect him to become more consistent, and with that he’s going to be looking like a borderline top 5 instead of 10.

This is it. /endthread

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2022, 07:54:01 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Quote from: W8ting2McHale
To me, Tatum’s biggest flaw this season has been consistency. If the team can stay healthy I expect him to become more consistent, and with that he’s going to be looking like a borderline top 5 instead of 10.

This is it. /endthread


Yeah I will say that if Tatum can get back to his career averages in terms of scoring efficiency at his current volume, he would certainly be in that conversation.

then he'd be scoring 27+ ppg on 49/38/84 shooting, with 6 FTA per game.

it would be good too if he could get back to generating steals and blocks at closer to the level he was at a couple years ago. he's fallen off a bit in those categories.

couple that improvement in scoring with continuing improvement in his playmaking (and maybe some better shot-making by teammates), and he could end up with a stat line something like:

27 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast, 1.5 stl, 1 blk ... 50/40/85


those are Durant-lite numbers, which seems like best case for Jayson


of course, part of that would also be the harder-to-quantify aspect of taking over in crunch time. you can't really have a good argument for top 5 / top 10, imo, if your team craps the bed constantly in the fourth quarter. 
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2022, 08:14:45 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season.

counting stats don't impress me much (cue Shania Twain music)

26 points on 21 shots ... meh

8.5 rebounds ... I don't really care


3.9 assists with 3 turnovers ... again, not impressed


this isn't to say that Tatum is trash now or something, just that being a high volume scorer without being particularly efficient or doing a lot of creating for others is not, in my opinion, a very high value role

A career high rebounding so far and you don't care? I think you really do underrate Tatum, does he has his flaws that he needs to work on? Yes but he's putting an effort in ti.

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2022, 08:23:11 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season.

counting stats don't impress me much (cue Shania Twain music)

26 points on 21 shots ... meh

8.5 rebounds ... I don't really care


3.9 assists with 3 turnovers ... again, not impressed


this isn't to say that Tatum is trash now or something, just that being a high volume scorer without being particularly efficient or doing a lot of creating for others is not, in my opinion, a very high value role

A career high rebounding so far and you don't care? I think you really do underrate Tatum, does he has his flaws that he needs to work on? Yes but he's putting an effort in ti.

one, this isn't about effort. we're talking about results. most NBA players try very very hard. otherwise they wouldn't be where they are.  if we're ranking players based on how they've performed in the season, we're not talking about who is trying the hardest.

that said, I just don't put a lot of value on rebounding. team rebounding matters a lot, but individual rebounding isn't that important to me.  particularly from the wing position, it's just not something that I think matters a whole lot to whether a team wins games.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2022, 08:45:24 PM »

Offline seancally

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And his actual production is 26/8.5/4 with + defense.  There aren't many that eclipse those while also playing + defense.  And because he hasn't missed many games, he is actually just 2 points behind Trae Young in the entire NBA on the season.

counting stats don't impress me much (cue Shania Twain music)

26 points on 21 shots ... meh

8.5 rebounds ... I don't really care


3.9 assists with 3 turnovers ... again, not impressed


this isn't to say that Tatum is trash now or something, just that being a high volume scorer without being particularly efficient or doing a lot of creating for others is not, in my opinion, a very high value role

A career high rebounding so far and you don't care? I think you really do underrate Tatum, does he has his flaws that he needs to work on? Yes but he's putting an effort in ti.

one, this isn't about effort. we're talking about results. most NBA players try very very hard. otherwise they wouldn't be where they are.  if we're ranking players based on how they've performed in the season, we're not talking about who is trying the hardest.

that said, I just don't put a lot of value on rebounding. team rebounding matters a lot, but individual rebounding isn't that important to me.  particularly from the wing position, it's just not something that I think matters a whole lot to whether a team wins games.

And yet among Tatum’s positional peers he must be a stronger rebounder than most, right? He gets flack for shying away from contact and avoiding the paint (suspect accusations this season) but he’s also above 8 rebounds per game. You know how much flack guys like Jeff Green got for being allergic to rebounding? How about “Average Al,” who hasn’t hit 8 per game since 2013/2014?

I get that rebounding is not such a straightforward stat, as some teams don’t emphasize it, others have a guy who gobbles up all the available rebounds and impacts those around him, etc. But when the season is over and we’re lining up the best players, the wing averaging over 8 a game is getting credit for that.
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #40 on: January 26, 2022, 11:01:10 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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This feels like it happens every year for Tatum,  just around the time for All Star voting. I swear he cares more about All Star votes than winning.

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #41 on: January 26, 2022, 11:08:11 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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This feels like it happens every year for Tatum,  just around the time for All Star voting. I swear he cares more about All Star votes than winning.

I think the two ECF appearances say otherwise. Maybe he's a slow starter, and just picks it up late in the season.

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #42 on: January 26, 2022, 11:27:58 PM »

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Quote from: W8ting2McHale
To me, Tatum’s biggest flaw this season has been consistency. If the team can stay healthy I expect him to become more consistent, and with that he’s going to be looking like a borderline top 5 instead of 10.

This is it. /endthread


Yeah I will say that if Tatum can get back to his career averages in terms of scoring efficiency at his current volume, he would certainly be in that conversation.

then he'd be scoring 27+ ppg on 49/38/84 shooting, with 6 FTA per game.

it would be good too if he could get back to generating steals and blocks at closer to the level he was at a couple years ago. he's fallen off a bit in those categories.

couple that improvement in scoring with continuing improvement in his playmaking (and maybe some better shot-making by teammates), and he could end up with a stat line something like:

27 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast, 1.5 stl, 1 blk ... 50/40/85


those are Durant-lite numbers, which seems like best case for Jayson


of course, part of that would also be the harder-to-quantify aspect of taking over in crunch time. you can't really have a good argument for top 5 / top 10, imo, if your team craps the bed constantly in the fourth quarter.
Since the start of December: 27.6PPG, 8.5RPG, 4.1APG, 0.9SPG & 0.7BPG on 46/34/87 (7FTAs a game). Since the start of January is much the same. That is right around league average for FG% and 3P% on a very high volume.

Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2022, 07:47:09 AM »

Offline LilRip

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It’s sad that Tatum’s own fanbase sleeps on him this much. Not top 20? Doesn’t care about winning? Sheesh!

Anyway, to the OP, welcome to the club. Glad you could join us :) I agree that Tatum is elite. From watching the games, I think the gulf between him and Brown has widened this year, imo, and I still consider Brown to be a surefire all-star talent (top25-30). I don’t think JT is MVP-caliber yet but I think he can eventually get there. I hope PBS realizes that he needs to build around JT, period. It doesn’t mean get rid of Brown (who is a heck of a talent himself) but JT is the most important piece of the puzzle
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Re: Are we witnessing Jayson Tatum becoming a top 5 NBA player?
« Reply #44 on: January 27, 2022, 09:04:32 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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It’s sad that Tatum’s own fanbase sleeps on him this much. Not top 20? Doesn’t care about winning? Sheesh!

Anyway, to the OP, welcome to the club. Glad you could join us :) I agree that Tatum is elite. From watching the games, I think the gulf between him and Brown has widened this year, imo, and I still consider Brown to be a surefire all-star talent (top25-30). I don’t think JT is MVP-caliber yet but I think he can eventually get there. I hope PBS realizes that he needs to build around JT, period. It doesn’t mean get rid of Brown (who is a heck of a talent himself) but JT is the most important piece of the puzzle

I mean, the comment earlier I tried to quote just makes a lot of sense

it's growing pains

but makes their improvement all the sweeter