Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups

[Celtics2021]

Stats over 80 minutes?

Look, don't wanna be that guy but, that's like 2 games worth.

What if 20 minutes were during that woeful shooting game we had. (Yeah-yeah, I know, "woeful shooting game" doesn't narrow it down much, I mean the woefullest.)

I was that guy above.  That said, when you’re looking at 5-man lineup stats you’re nearly always going to have pretty a small sample, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything to be gained by it.  People were obsessed with the lineup of death several years ago, and that had all of 100 regular season minutes.

[liam]

Wow, not meaningful...

[#1P4P]

This team has only 3 lineups that clear the >80 minute mark and most other teams range anywhere from 1-3 lineups with the Jazz having an outlier 5 lineups. At this point in the season, 80 minutes is a decent sample size and gives us a glimpse of what lineups have been used most frequently and how effective they have been. This data has made Udoka use the Smart-Schroder backcourt less frequent.

If you want to double the sample size to >160, the Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams III lineup is now 2nd in Net Rating (credit to colincb):

Jay King @ByJayKing about 16 minutes ago

The Celtics starters had a plus-17.8 net rating entering tonight's game. After outscoring the Kings 42-23 over 14 minutes, the Celtics starters now have a plus-21.9 net rating over 174 minutes together.

One of the very top units in the NBA. Good health is critical.

Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 24 minutes ago

Celtics improved their net rating by 1.1 points (from +2.0 to +3.1) for the season with tonight’s 53-point win over Kings. They now have the 7th best net rating in NBA.

Cs record doesn't reflect that though. Contenders win close games and blow out the stiffs. At least we can blow out the stiffs. With the exception of Brooklyn and GSW, if Curry regains his touch, we can beat the rest if we play right.

[wdleehi]

5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams

…

Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.

I think it shooting.   Grant can hit the three pointer and it opens t he floor more.   

The other lineup, pack the paint in front of Tatum.   

What does the lineup with both Williams , Tatum and both PGs look like?

[#1P4P]

My conclusion is that having a top 10 lineup doesn't really correlate to having a good team.
Atlanta, Min, NYK, Boston, Ind...al teams with .500 or worse records.

It is interesting I guess to know the C's AT TIMES are very effective, but most of us can see that with an eye test. 
I guess that is part of having a mediocre team.  You will be good sometimes.

Having 2 top 10 lineups correlates to having 2 top 10 lineups. It means what it means, the Celtics have 2 lineups that measure among the best in the NBA.

There are plenty of reasons why it doesn’t correlate to a great record: chemistry, bench, coaching, system, health, etc.

The variables will be there (different opposing team, different opposing defense, offense, PG, SG, SF, PF, C, the temperature of the arena, one of the players might be hungover, someone in the lineup may be playing after having eaten ice cream even though their lactose intolerant 😂), the constants (the lineup) remain and that’s what’s being measured. Swapping Schroder for Brown is a +/- 40 point swing and then swapping Rob for Grant is another +/- 37.

Phoenix has 3 qualified lineups and all are positive; the Jazz have 5 and 3 are double digit positive with the 2 other being only -0.8 and -1.2 (last time I checked). The teams with health and chemistry will play the hits early and often and be rewarded for it.

[Celtics2021]

5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams

…

Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.

I think it shooting.   Grant can hit the three pointer and it opens t he floor more.   

The other lineup, pack the paint in front of Tatum.   

What does the lineup with both Williams , Tatum and both PGs look like?

-2.5 in 46 minutes.

[Celtics2021]

In addition to the starting lineup being very good (based on net rating) for a season level, it's not merely the result of some outliers.  The Celtics are 9-5 when they all play, and the starters have outscored their opponents in 10 of 14 games.  The Celtics are 9-1 in these games.  This team is very much led by its top 5 players.  To me this means the team could be competitive in the playoffs if they can a) make it there, and b) keep their top 5 healthy for the postseason.  Both of these are far from given, however, and one might even say unlikely.  But from a fit perspective, they go together very well.  Everyone else on the roster should be available for trades, however (and I'm sure they are).

[#1P4P]

In addition to the starting lineup being very good (based on net rating) for a season level, it's not merely the result of some outliers.  The Celtics are 9-5 when they all play, and the starters have outscored their opponents in 10 of 14 games.  The Celtics are 9-1 in these games.  This team is very much led by its top 5 players.  To me this means the team could be competitive in the playoffs if they can a) make it there, and b) keep their top 5 healthy for the postseason.  Both of these are far from given, however, and one might even say unlikely.  But from a fit perspective, they go together very well.  Everyone else on the roster should be available for trades, however (and I'm sure they are).

Thanks for the info!

Since people fixate on results, having the W/L record is important to show that this is actually a good team in need of minor adjustments. I think the adjustment will come internally (chemistry and coaching), not externally (a trade).

If healthy, this team will be very competitive in the playoffs. Except for Brooklyn, they have performed well against all of the playoff teams.

[colincb]

Defense is what fuels the starting lineup's elite status:

Brian Robb @BrianTRobb3 hours ago

New: The Celtics starting five (+21.9 net rating) is allowing 91 points per 100 possessions, the best defensive rating for a five-man unit in NBA that has played 150+ minutes. masslive.com/celtics/2022/0…

[todd_days_41]

5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams

…

Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.

I think it is more that Schroder and RW aren't a good fit.

Well, and it moves Horford to the 5 (where be belongs), right? I'd assume a line-up with both Williams vs. Grant & Horford is a more interesting comparison.

[Celtics2021]

Defense is what fuels the starting lineup's elite status:

Brian Robb @BrianTRobb3 hours ago

New: The Celtics starting five (+21.9 net rating) is allowing 91 points per 100 possessions, the best defensive rating for a five-man unit in NBA that has played 150+ minutes. masslive.com/celtics/2022/0…

Yes, they're 1st of out 32 lineups with at least 150 minutes in Defensive rating.  They're 11th of 32 in offensive rating with 113.2, which is also solid, however.  (For comparison, the Warriors most-used lineup of Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, Poole, and Looney is 12th with a 112.2 offensive rating).  The starters play good offense and elite defense.

[#1P4P]

The starting lineup has improved to 2nd with a +27.8 NETRTG (>200 minutes), best in DEFRTG AND 4th in OFFRTG!

With the minute filter set to >300, the Bucks and Suns each with one in the top 10 last season; Heat and Lakers with a lineup in the top 5 in 2019-20; GSW and Raptors with a lineup in 1st and 8th, respectively. The results imply that Championship contenders have a top 5-player unit that has logged >300 minutes in a season.

Udoka hasn’t been closing with this lineup until last night, when he closed the first half with it and it successfully rebuilt a 9 point lead. Assuming health, if this lineup continues to start and close at this pace and the bench can begin to maintain leads, this team has the ingredients to make a serious RS/playoff run.

[tazzmaniac]

According to NBA.com stats, the Horford-Smart-Brown-Tatum-Williams III lineup has a +27.8 Net Rtg in 209 minutes.