Author Topic: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups  (Read 3673 times)

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Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« on: January 21, 2022, 01:23:06 PM »

Offline #1P4P

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Top lineups according to Net Rating (that have logged more than 80 Minutes):

1 - +34.8 - ATL - Capela-Bogdanovic-Collins-Huerter-Young

2 - +30.7 - MIN - Beverley-Russell-Towns-Vanderbilt-Edwards

3 - +28.0 - NYK - Rose-Gibson-Burks-Toppin-Quickley

4 - +17.7 - UTA - Gay-Conley-Gobert-Clarkson-Ingles

5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams

6 - +17.5 - BOS - Horford-Smart-Brown-Tatum-Williams III


7 - +16.8 - UTA - Conley-Gobert-Clarkson-Ingles-Paschall

8 - +16.3 - PHX - Paul-McGee-Crowder-Booker-Bridges

9 - +15.6 - CLE - L. Markkanen-Allen-Garland-Stevens-Mobley

10 - +14.6 - IND - Turner-Sabonis-LeVert-Brogdon-Duarte

I reversed the sorting to see what the worst lineups are; Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

Of the teams with a better record than the Celtics, only Dallas, Charlotte, and Philadelphia have used a lineup with a double digit negative NETRTG.

My conclusion with the stats and performances is Udoka. You can swap this one for that one, but until Udoka becomes a good coach or is replaced by one, this .500 team will be the result.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2022, 01:45:29 PM »

Offline seancally

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Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2022, 01:53:31 PM »

Offline blink

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My conclusion is that having a top 10 lineup doesn't really correlate to having a good team.
Atlanta, Min, NYK, Boston, Ind...al teams with .500 or worse records.

It is interesting I guess to know the C's AT TIMES are very effective, but most of us can see that with an eye test. 
I guess that is part of having a mediocre team.  You will be good sometimes.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2022, 01:55:55 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote
5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams



Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one. 


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Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2022, 01:58:50 PM »

Offline CelticsWhat35

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Just to clarify, net rating is the difference between the plus/minus of when the group is one the floor versus not, correct?  So this isn’t saying these are two of the top 10 lineups in the league.  Just that the difference of when they’re on and off the court is greatest (or top 10), correct?

So it’s just speaks more to how bad our bench is

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2022, 02:07:29 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Just to clarify, net rating is the difference between the plus/minus of when the group is one the floor versus not, correct?  So this isn’t saying these are two of the top 10 lineups in the league.  Just that the difference of when they’re on and off the court is greatest (or top 10), correct?

So it’s just speaks more to how bad our bench is

No, I believe it's the difference between Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) vs. Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).


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Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2022, 02:14:36 PM »

Offline CelticsWhat35

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Just to clarify, net rating is the difference between the plus/minus of when the group is one the floor versus not, correct?  So this isn’t saying these are two of the top 10 lineups in the league.  Just that the difference of when they’re on and off the court is greatest (or top 10), correct?

So it’s just speaks more to how bad our bench is

No, I believe it's the difference between Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) vs. Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).

Got it, thanks!  So that would be both impressive and confusing.  6 of the top 10 lineups are for “middle of the pack” teams; so maybe it does still speak to how bad the bench is if these particular lineups perform so well; granted a smaller sample size with all of the injuries, etc

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2022, 02:23:06 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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In defense of Ime, he should be playing a lot of different lineups to begin the season and seeing who plays well together. Then, he should tighten his lineups and rotations as the we move toward the playoffs.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2022, 02:31:52 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Quote
5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams



Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.
I think it is more that Schroder and RW aren't a good fit.
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Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2022, 02:38:36 PM »

Online mobilija

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Or Smart and RWill dont fit.

Too much defense not enuff offense.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2022, 02:39:49 PM »

Online Celtics2021

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Quote
5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams



Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.

There can be a lot of noise in 80 minute samples across a handful of games (different opponents for one).

That said, I do think it's significant that our starting lineup performs very well, given the misgivings the board has about the two big lineup.  And with Schroder instead of Smart it performs just as well (or slightly better perhaps, but with 1/3 of the minutes we get some sample-size issues again).  But the net rating is over 20 for Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams and a PG in about 200 minutes of court time.  That's not where things break down.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2022, 02:45:26 PM »

Online Celtics2021

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Or Smart and RWill dont fit.

Too much defense not enuff offense.

More likely Schroder than Marcus.  Marcus and TL have a 5.2 net rating when on the court together, whereas Schroder and TL have a 1.8 net rating.  Smart is much better at feeding TL than Schroder.  Williams shoots 77% on passes from Smart, only 53% from Schroder.

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2022, 07:07:34 PM »

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Stats over 80 minutes?

Look, don't wanna be that guy but, that's like 2 games worth.

What if 20 minutes were during that woeful shooting game we had. (Yeah-yeah, I know, "woeful shooting game" doesn't narrow it down much, I mean the woefullest.)

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2022, 07:09:31 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Quote
5 - +17.7 - BOS - Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams



Boston’s Horford-Schroder-Smart-Tatum-Williams III has the #3 worst lineup with a -19.9 behind HOU and OKC lineups. It is Boston’s 2nd most used lineup.

It’s odd that substituting Timelord for Grant Williams takes us from a terrible Net Rtg to an elite one.

I think you mean the other way around?

By this measure, Boston’s best lineup has Grant in it.

Interesting, because a few weeks ago some posters were making something of his less-than-stellar raw +/-.

There are just too many variables, and therefore too big a sample-size issue to say anything definitive about lineups. These data aren’t ‘meaningless’, but as your simple substitution demonstrates, they don’t lend themselves to hard conclusions.

'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Celtics Have 2 Top 10 Lineups
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2022, 07:18:30 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I don't recall the exact number but it was posted in the 4th quarter that the Horford lineups were all negative. I know the broadcast and a few media people made it a story of sorts. How the starters all turn to mush in the 4th and Al gets abused in late ISo.