Author Topic: If We Just Tank…  (Read 5139 times)

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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2021, 04:09:03 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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All out tanking is not really an option for the Celts, but they can definitely miss the playoffs.  I think missing the playoffs would be a net positive.  Yes, it would likely push the Jays one step closer to the door, but unless the Celts put more talent on this roster, the Jays are out the door sooner or later anyway.

I think Brad should be shopping anybody who is not clearly an asset beyond next season by the trade deadline. Even if just for second round picks or conditional firsts.  Shop Smart just to see if some psuedo-contender is willing to give you a couple of mediocre 1sts for an All-NBA defense guy with plenty of big game experience.

Then the remainder of the season, rest the Jays as much as possible and play the young guys a ton.

How do you convince two 24-25 year olds to rest as much as possible when their career earnings are at stake? You know in and Tatum would like to make all nba’s and all star games. I realize the thunder did this with a near all star in sga last year, but am struggling to think of a time a team shut down two all stars when they were around .500 (with 50 games left)

Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2021, 08:26:34 AM »

Offline Moranis

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All out tanking is not really an option for the Celts, but they can definitely miss the playoffs.  I think missing the playoffs would be a net positive.  Yes, it would likely push the Jays one step closer to the door, but unless the Celts put more talent on this roster, the Jays are out the door sooner or later anyway.

I think Brad should be shopping anybody who is not clearly an asset beyond next season by the trade deadline. Even if just for second round picks or conditional firsts.  Shop Smart just to see if some psuedo-contender is willing to give you a couple of mediocre 1sts for an All-NBA defense guy with plenty of big game experience.

Then the remainder of the season, rest the Jays as much as possible and play the young guys a ton.

How do you convince two 24-25 year olds to rest as much as possible when their career earnings are at stake? You know in and Tatum would like to make all nba’s and all star games. I realize the thunder did this with a near all star in sga last year, but am struggling to think of a time a team shut down two all stars when they were around .500 (with 50 games left)
well Tatum is in the protocols and Brown is always getting banged up.  I mean the Celtics years ago shut Pierce down in a season when he had an injury he probably could have played with if the team was better. 

I just don't think the young guys are worth playing and that is the real problem.  Pritchard, Langford, and Nesmith are almost certainly never going to be top level rotation players on contenders (Nesmith will have a role if he keeps developing his shot, but not a big time rotation piece).  They just aren't good enough.  I think G. Williams and R. Williams could be, but they are already playing enough minutes.

That said, I'd absolutely be trying to trade Smart, Richardson, Schroder, and Horford for whatever value I could as they aren't long term pieces.  If the Warriors would trade Kuminga, Wiseman, or Moody I'd see if they wanted Smart/Schroder/Horford and try to work something out with them (I get Horford would be hard without someone like Wiggins which they probably wouldn't do).  So on January 20th, something like Smart for Kuminga, Looney, Payton.  Then a 2nd trade where we trade them Freedom for a highly protected 2nd rounder who fits in their Wanamaker trade exception to make up some of the value difference and get them a replacement for Looney (I'd give them Pritchard if they'd rather, I just think Freedom makes more sense for them). 

So total trade

Kuminga, Looney, Payton, 2nd rounder (some form of protection either top 55 or some weird one where it only transfers if it is like 40-55)

for

Smart, Freedom

Golden State goes all in, while Boston gets Kuminga and some youngish rotational depth.
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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2021, 09:19:15 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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All out tanking is not really an option for the Celts, but they can definitely miss the playoffs.  I think missing the playoffs would be a net positive.  Yes, it would likely push the Jays one step closer to the door, but unless the Celts put more talent on this roster, the Jays are out the door sooner or later anyway.

I think Brad should be shopping anybody who is not clearly an asset beyond next season by the trade deadline. Even if just for second round picks or conditional firsts.  Shop Smart just to see if some psuedo-contender is willing to give you a couple of mediocre 1sts for an All-NBA defense guy with plenty of big game experience.

Then the remainder of the season, rest the Jays as much as possible and play the young guys a ton.

How do you convince two 24-25 year olds to rest as much as possible when their career earnings are at stake? You know in and Tatum would like to make all nba’s and all star games. I realize the thunder did this with a near all star in sga last year, but am struggling to think of a time a team shut down two all stars when they were around .500 (with 50 games left)


Eh they're both paid already.

I'm not saying shut them down. I'm saying let them take it easy. Play 28 mpg. Rest anytime there's a road back to back, etc
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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2021, 06:40:46 PM »

Offline GreenShooter

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Tank all you want, unless you get a top 4 pick you will be disappointed. BTW Jaden Ivey is the gift in this draft.

Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2021, 07:10:06 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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All out tanking is not really an option for the Celts, but they can definitely miss the playoffs.  I think missing the playoffs would be a net positive.  Yes, it would likely push the Jays one step closer to the door, but unless the Celts put more talent on this roster, the Jays are out the door sooner or later anyway.

I think Brad should be shopping anybody who is not clearly an asset beyond next season by the trade deadline. Even if just for second round picks or conditional firsts.  Shop Smart just to see if some psuedo-contender is willing to give you a couple of mediocre 1sts for an All-NBA defense guy with plenty of big game experience.

Then the remainder of the season, rest the Jays as much as possible and play the young guys a ton.

How do you convince two 24-25 year olds to rest as much as possible when their career earnings are at stake? You know in and Tatum would like to make all nba’s and all star games. I realize the thunder did this with a near all star in sga last year, but am struggling to think of a time a team shut down two all stars when they were around .500 (with 50 games left)


Eh they're both paid already.

I'm not saying shut them down. I'm saying let them take it easy. Play 28 mpg. Rest anytime there's a road back to back, etc

Phosita I am not sure how serious you are being with this. Have you seen a team do this with a 23 and 25 year old all stars before? With 50 games left? How a high a pick do you think we could get with this strategy? 9th best odds? I am not thrilled with how our season is going either. But there is no way we are regularly sitting and playing guys this age 28 minutes a game. They wouldn't put up with it at all (and that is good, you want competitive guys).

Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2021, 07:37:04 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Every single season we see teams transition to a "load management" plan as necessary to fit the team's objectives.

Obviously the Celts are not going to outright tank.

But they are likely to be below .500 in January and they could very reasonably and plausibly look to (a) heavily shop anybody on the roster who isn't named Jay / on a rookie contract and (b) shift the second-half season focus to "seeing what they have" with the younger players and whoever they get back via trade.

I have no relish for seeing this team make a run at a play-in spot and get clocked in round 1 again. I've never wanted that for this team. I've always been pretty consistent in years past -- if the team looks like it's headed for a first round out, I think it's better to steer away from the playoffs and get a mid-late lottery pick.  We've seen a lot of really good players go in the 8-14 range in the past, even if drafts that were supposed to be weak.  Example: Tyrese Haliburton was the 12th pick in the 2020 draft.  Another example: Tyler Herro was the 13th pick in the 2019 draft.

The Celts just really need more talent. 

I really don't think that taking this route would be as much of a problem for the Jays as you make out. They've already spent the last season and a half trying to carry a crappy team, with poor results. They've had to deal with the media questioning them after every embarrassing loss.  They don't exactly seem like they're especially fired up about all the losing, either, to be quite honest. 

I would guess that if anything is going to push Jayson & Jaylen out the door, it will be the persistent talent drain on this team, much more so than any short term strategy of load management.
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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #21 on: December 28, 2021, 08:45:55 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I feel like I need to keep repeating this in all of these threads.

Boston has played a very difficult schedule with players in and out of the lineup.  The C's will go on a tear starting in mid-January to mid-March (18-7 should be the worst case if they are healthy) and after that 8-5 should be the worst case, so even looking at the worst case (again if they are mostly healthy), when Boston ends the year something like 26-12 in the worst case, I'd like to see all of those posting now continue making the same type of posts.
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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #22 on: December 28, 2021, 09:48:32 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I feel like I need to keep repeating this in all of these threads.

Boston has played a very difficult schedule with players in and out of the lineup.  The C's will go on a tear starting in mid-January to mid-March (18-7 should be the worst case if they are healthy) and after that 8-5 should be the worst case, so even looking at the worst case (again if they are mostly healthy), when Boston ends the year something like 26-12 in the worst case, I'd like to see all of those posting now continue making the same type of posts.

This is something we agree on. Some of this stuff has really turned into sky is falling mode. I could see us trading smart/horford/schroeder for various reasons (I am starting to wonder if he is a major part of chemistry problems), but it would be for something that would contribute this season and next. We are not going to blowing it up get 20 year old players as much as it pains others to accept. (or load managing a 23 and 25 year old all starw that have played much less than normal basketball the last two seasons cause of covid).
« Last Edit: December 28, 2021, 09:55:43 PM by celticsclay »

Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #23 on: December 28, 2021, 09:55:00 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I feel like I need to keep repeating this in all of these threads.

Boston has played a very difficult schedule with players in and out of the lineup.  The C's will go on a tear starting in mid-January to mid-March (18-7 should be the worst case if they are healthy) and after that 8-5 should be the worst case, so even looking at the worst case (again if they are mostly healthy), when Boston ends the year something like 26-12 in the worst case, I'd like to see all of those posting now continue making the same type of posts.

I haven't looked at the schedule, but winning roughly 70% of our games doesn't seem like a worst case, even if we're healthy.  In fact, it sounds pretty ambitious.  This team has shown the ability to lose to some bad teams, even when fairly healthy (which no team seems to be, least of all ours).


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Re: If We Just Tank…
« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2021, 08:03:08 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I feel like I need to keep repeating this in all of these threads.

Boston has played a very difficult schedule with players in and out of the lineup.  The C's will go on a tear starting in mid-January to mid-March (18-7 should be the worst case if they are healthy) and after that 8-5 should be the worst case, so even looking at the worst case (again if they are mostly healthy), when Boston ends the year something like 26-12 in the worst case, I'd like to see all of those posting now continue making the same type of posts.

I haven't looked at the schedule, but winning roughly 70% of our games doesn't seem like a worst case, even if we're healthy.  In fact, it sounds pretty ambitious.  This team has shown the ability to lose to some bad teams, even when fairly healthy (which no team seems to be, least of all ours).
Starting with the January 17th game, the schedule is pretty darn easy.  I mean the 7 games that start there are NO, CHA, POR at home, then at WAS, SAC at home, then at ATL and NO.  Then it is MIA and CHA at home, followed by games at DET, at ORL, and at BKN, two more at home with DEN, ATL, at PHI, and DET at home.  Boston, if healthy, should be 13-3 in that stretch.  The Feb. 24th game is at BKN, but then at DET, at IND, and then 3 home games ATL, MEM, BKN, at CHA with DET and DAL at home, so a bit tougher but should be no worse than 5-4, then a 4 game road trip at GS, SAC, DEN, OKC so let's call it 1-3 (though 2-2 is more likely) then 5 of the next 6 at home UTA, MIN, at TOR, MIA, IND, WAS (4-2 to be safe, though 5-1 or 6-0 isn't out of question) and ending with a 3 game road trip at CHI, MIL, MEM (tough final 3, but I expect a win so 1-2).  So that gets you to 26-12 with a good shot at being better.  This obviously requires very good health, especially from Tatum and Brown though.  If Boston continues to have the roster cohesion problems, then it isn't going to perform very well.

There are also 10 games before that, which if Boston was healthy they'd probably be 7-3 or 6-4 in, but with them lacking health it is far more likely that they are something 4-6.
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